Crude oil up 8% today

[I_forget]

Just a bit of good news for everyone, before the weekend. Oil up a few dollars as 94 more US selling rigs were idled last week. This morning oil was up $0.50 due to violence in Iraq. Have a good weekend all

m.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/us-oil-prices-surge-at-close-of-session/article22723007/?service=mobile

[TBD]

Israel and one of iran's proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas) getting into another fire fight - Oil will be back up to 80 - 100 per barrel in no time.

not to mention when Iran becomes nuclear and starts throwing her weight around - time to buy into Oil & Gas boys ...

these low prices could be very short lived !

[oldgutpile]

And up over a buck at the pumps before you can even say "Hamas"

[tri777]

Just a bit of good news..Crude oil up 8% today

.. in a related story to follow> ,Gov't spending up 8%.

[79ford]

The news started out as the city of kirkuk under attack and somehow morphed into the kirkuk oil field being bombed??

[Adwittoutdoors]

^^^^^^😝lol Tri777 we need a like button on AO

[lmtada]

Not Happening!! Economic Tsunami coming your way!!!:snapoutofit::snapoutofit::snapoutofit:


Israel and one of iran's proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas) getting into another fire fight - Oil will be back up to 80 - 100 per barrel in no time.

not to mention when Iran becomes nuclear and starts throwing her weight around - time to buy into Oil & Gas boys ...

these low prices could be very short lived !

[elkdump]

The news started out as the city of kirkuk under attack and somehow morphed into the kirkuk oil field being bombed??

A barbecue blew up in Kirkuk at a bring your own Goat to Roast Festival now crude oil jumps .08 cents ? :sHa_sarcasticlol:

[Adwittoutdoors]

Well then I think we should send over a few more 'faulty' bbq's. :sHa_sarcasticlol:

[elkdump]

Well then I think we should send over a few more 'faulty' bbq's. :sHa_sarcasticlol:

8 one hundredths of a buck is NOT a giant leap ,,,,,:thinking-006:

[AbAngler]

Well, it is Friday...

[79ford]

A barbecue blew up in Kirkuk at a bring your own Goat to Roast Festival now crude oil jumps .08 cents ? :sHa_sarcasticlol:


I saw some one rocking their car today because they were stuck, the increased gasoline demand must have dragged international oil prices up:)

The fighting is southwest of kirkuk and kirkuk was taken about a month ago then isis was fought off....pretty much a non issue

Iraq has been posting new records for production every month.

Lots of oil price wars is pitting opec against other suppliers. Exxon has opened a 225 000 barrel per day loading facility in edmonton to get heavy crude to joliet and baytown or baton rouge? ( one of the three b's) the heavy crude in from canada squeezes the traditional feed of saudi heavy out.

War in the middle east tends to not affect production, war costs lots of money and that usually means selling oil.

Big oil makes money on squeezing feedstock prices downwards... The original reason opec was formed was to fight the squeeze from the super majors.

My hat goes off to bush and cheney for achieving what they have with returning iraqs reserves to private production companies to extract. The exxons, chevrons,shells, bp and totals of the world are very good at getting oil flowing.

[Redfrog]

Well I'm glad that economic crisis is over. Wonder if the turnaround was because Smith joined the Alberta PC?:thinking-006:

[EZM]

8 one hundredths of a buck is NOT a giant leap ,,,,,:thinking-006:

Huh? not 8 cents (8 one hundredths of a buck as you so eloquently stated)

it's ...... 8% ....... like $4

more like 400/100rdths of a buck by your anology .....:)

Yes .... that is signifigant

:thinking-006:

[Selkirk]

This just in from the Commodities Markets; 'Oil is already starting to head back down again'. Who'd a thought?! :lol:

Buckle up and enjoy the ride ... and have a great weekend! :wave:

Mac

[mad mountain mike]

^^^^ You seem to be taking some enjoyment out of an economic situation that will be devastating to many Alberta families. You must have one ****ed sense of humour.

[elkdump]

Huh? not 8 cents (8 one hundredths of a buck as you so eloquently stated)

it's ...... 8% ....... like $4

more like 400/100rdths of a buck by your anology .....:)

Yes .... that is signifigant

:thinking-006:

I quoted on Friday A.M. WTI Crude price at around $44.50 , you are talkin

Friday P.M. WTI crude pice at around $48.20 , :sEm_oops2:

[Adwittoutdoors]

Hey Elkdump enjoy your weekend and keep smiling. 😎 A sense of humour will be needed during the lows and highs of this roller coaster ride. 😃

[EZM]

I quoted on Friday A.M. WTI Crude price at around $44.50 , you are talkin

Friday P.M. WTI crude pice at around $48.20 , :sEm_oops2:

That's ok ..... you will probably be right Monday when she sheds 4 bucks and drops back down!!!

I really hope she keeps climbing ..... it's a ghost town at work and orders are being cancelled, we are out of new builds by the end of March ..... then ..... we will be forced to make some hard decisions with our labor force.

I don't want to have to make tough decisions that mean someone will be devastated to learn they have no source of income until things pick back up.

I probably won't sleep soundly until the business climate improves.

[Wes_G]

And just like that, gas jumped 10 cents at the pump today!

[tri777]

And just like that, gas jumped 10 cents at the pump today!

And that is exactly why all this tax or newly arranged PST talk
pizzes me off to no end..then when it's oil 'boom time again', the stupid
new 'whatever scam' tax remains while screwing me/lowly tax payers over twice!

[Taco]

And just like that, gas jumped 10 cents at the pump today!
And diesel came down 2 cents

[Kim473]

Oil will start to climb mid to the end of Feb. Might not hit the $100 mark but, $ 80.00 or so by mid summer.

[trouty]

Rig counts down but more related to month end shorting getting covered.
Far from the supply reduction needed to get a reversal started. Money to be made on the swings though.

[blackpheasant]

Here is an interesting perspective:


Right now the oil market is totally focused on finding a bottom for oil prices. However, according to OPEC's Secretary-General Abdulla al-Badri we've already hit bottom. Not only that, but he sees a real possibility that oil prices could explode higher to upwards of $200 per barrel in the future. He's far from the only one that sees a return of triple-digit oil prices.

Finding a bottom

According to the Secretary-General, the oil market doesn't need to look for oil prices to bottom as the market has already bottomed. Instead, he offered quite bullish comments by saying, "Now the prices are around $45-$55, and I think maybe they [have] reached the bottom and we [will] see some rebound very soon." Now, normally that type of remark would be just another layer of noise, but this is coming from OPEC's Secretary-General so it comes with a lot of weight behind it.

That said, he's not saying that OPEC will come in and rescue the oil market by reversing its previous decision to hold steady on production. Instead, he sees the signs that the oil market is self-correcting as oil companies have made deep cuts to spending, which will eventually lead to lower production growth. Further, the rig count in the U.S. is plunging, which is usually a key to a bottom in oil prices. However, in the midst of cutting back as the industry works through the current oversupply the Secretary-General is now warning that the industry is putting future oil supplies at risk by under investing today.

Underinvestment leads to a shortage

The Secretary-General said that, "if you don't invest in oil and gas, you will see more than $200" when it comes to future oil prices. While he didn't give a timeframe, he did note the correlation between investment and future production. This is because oil production naturally declines and oil companies need to invest in new production to not only replace this decline in production from legacy oil fields but to add new production to meet growing demand. However, oil companies are reluctant to invest in new production as their cash flows decline.

Over time this could become a problem as oil fields around the world naturally decline by an average of about 5% per year. As we see in this chart from a Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX ) investor presentation, in order to overcome this decline oil companies need to develop about 200 billion barrels of oil supplies over the next decade and a half just to meet demand.

These supplies will require the industry to invest $7-$10 trillion. However, with the big capital budget reductions oil companies have announced this year it could make it harder for the industry to meet future supply needs. In fact, the industry might defer up to $150 billion oil projects this year due to the collapse in crude prices. Many of these investments, however, wouldn't have yielded actual production for a couple of years due to the long lead time of major projects.

As an example, Chevron delivered first oil on two of its Gulf of Mexico projects late last year after beginning construction on the fields in 2011. Meanwhile, another $6 billion project it just sanctioned at the end of last year won't produce any oil until 2018. It's these long lead time projects that are being delayed, which is setting the world up for higher oil prices in the future as an under investment today has the potential to lead to a constriction in future supplies.

Investor takeaway

OPEC's Secretary-General is calling the bottom in oil prices. While he's not the first to call a bottom, he does lead the organization that currently controls the oil market so his comments do have a lot of weight. Further, he's also suggesting that the cuts that oil companies are making could have a dramatic impact on future oil prices as the under investment has the potential to cause oil prices to rocket higher if demand grows faster than future supplies. That, however, would all be part of OPEC's plan as it purposely pushed for lower oil prices now so it could control market share once oil prices surged in the future. It's willing to endure short-term pain for the potential of a big long-term gain.


Read more: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/01/31/opec-sees-oil-prices-exploding-to-200-a-barrel.aspx#ixzz3QYCJnGFz

[79ford]

Ya rigs may have dropped but if you look at the global picture the rig count is up 6% from last http://www.wtrg.com/rotaryrigs.html

Year...... the usa and canada are really the only countries suffering a big rig count reduction. The usa and canada being responsible for most of the oil glut.... we are the 'high cost production' opec refers to.

Considering the united states and canada are still hitting new levels of record production and crude stock piles in the usa are at 80 year records anyone holding their breath waiting for oil to bounce back probably isnt going to fare well.

Opec bumped production up in january too.... cant forget russia and iraq hitting new records for production. Iran has a few extra million barrels of production to let loose when they get in some ones good books. Libya has about a million sitting in tango.

Whos coming on in north america? Husky, imperial cold lake, bump at kearl, firebag phase xxxxxxx.

There is a tonne of oil coming on out there. It isnt stopping either, lots of big projects that got started years ago are fniishing. There is a massive wall of oil coming yet.

[79ford]

You also got to remember WCS is the oil price the heavy producers get..... which is 32$ barrel, lots of it seems to go on rail too, 12$ barrel for rail, 15$ barrel for diluent/condensate, and 5-8$ for energy to extract a barrel. Loosing money before you even factor in wages and maintenance never mind blowing the budget on construction

[blackpheasant]

You also got to remember WCS is the oil price the heavy producers get..... which is 32$ barrel, lots of it seems to go on rail too, 12$ barrel for rail, 15$ barrel for diluent/condensate, and 5-8$ for energy to extract a barrel. Loosing money before you even factor in wages and maintenance never mind blowing the budget on construction

Don't mean to be picky but isn't the 15$ diluent a wash more or less, you still get to sell the diluent (as oil) at the other end, no?

[blackpheasant]

102892

200 billion barrels is a lot of oil to be short, especially when we know that all the easy oil has already been produced on a global basis, Saudi has never fracced as many wells as they are today...they never had to

[79ford]

Ya a bit of a wash but you have to blend the stuff and pay more for the condensate etc than you get for the wcs at the other end

[blackpheasant]

Ya a bit of a wash but you have to blend the stuff and pay more for the condensate etc than you get for the wcs at the other end

Ya for sure, interesting times ahead it seems everyone has there own take on the oil price, my gut tells me it won't stay low for very long, we will know soon enough

[79ford]

Ya for sure, interesting times ahead it seems everyone has there own take on the oil price, my gut tells me it won't stay low for very long, we will know soon enough

I think it would be tough to say.... if opec sticks to their guns in forcing high cost to cut back long enough to knock 2 million barrels or so off the market i think that will probably take a year or two.

There is a glut of oil right now, any production cut back or price rise will just increase the glut problem. The next run will be a good one if opec can keep on track with a good fundamental rebalancing vs artificial cutting etc.

[I_forget]

WTI almost at $50 /barrel

[79ford]

Opec is actually hanging out and discussing strategy this week. Could be good or bad. Saudi and iraq pumped an extra 200-300k bpd each in the last month so they might be opening the spigot or closing it.... hahah, flip a coin:) Burn some gas while its cheap

[I_forget]

Some unreal gains on the market last three trading days. Canadian oil sands from $6.10 /share to $11.30 /share. Baytex $18.20 /share to $24.40 /share.

[79ford]

I am watching the news this morning and i am watching a headline that is explaining the oil rally....

'Oil refinery strike goes into fourth day driving oil rally'

Haha, people will be unhappy to learn that oil refineries dont produce oil when stockpiles rise even higher lol. Or when people learn that oil rigs drill for oil vs pump oil.

[brownbomber]

Sometimes a little knowledge is worse than zero knowledge. For the most part you don't really know what's happening day to day or week to week. The change in attitude from late November to just after Christmas was startling. Take what you want out of it but most of us can't predict it and none of us have any control over it. If you work in construction, drilling, set ups etc good luck to you.

[blackpheasant]

Sometimes a little knowledge is worse than zero knowledge. For the most part you don't really know what's happening day to day or week to week. The change in attitude from late November to just after Christmas was startling. Take what you want out of it but most of us can't predict it and none of us have any control over it. If you work in construction, drilling, set ups etc good luck to you.

And that's ^^^^^ a fact

[blackpheasant]

I am watching the news this morning and i am watching a headline that is explaining the oil rally....

'Oil refinery strike goes into fourth day driving oil rally'

Haha, people will be unhappy to learn that oil refineries dont produce oil when stockpiles rise even higher lol. Or when people learn that oil rigs drill for oil vs pump oil.

I think it has more to do with the lower rig count in the US coupled with the massive Cap cuts coming down the pipe from the big boys...BP, Chevron etc. when these guys cut capitol spending the world takes notice, anything we do here in Canada is small potatoes compared to what these giant oil companies do on a global basis, when they decide to slow drilling and exploration it has a ripple effect which will effect supply in the not so distant future, this is what the market is telling us and why oil has had a bounce to the upside.