Marty S
02-14-2019, 10:54 PM
Yes on the other thread I was playing around/toying with some! What can I say?
So anyways... on a more serious note! Yes there has been plenty of low quality goods at least it was so in Southern Alberta. Tough season on the quality, lots and lots of yucky Ave/Lo II's. If there is truly a shortage of quality western heavy coyotes this season, then people will buy the next step down all over the board. It was advertised that the anticipated coyote offering was to be 70,000 skins, however the next estimation was at 60,000 skins, and last I heard the actual offering on the Feb sale is going to be 55,000 skins.
So it sounds like a serious shortage, but is it really going to be??? Numerous serious trappers are reporting substantial collections. Meanwhile the carcass dealers that generally service a very large portion of the shot coyotes in Alberta claim that goods are scarce and hard to find collections.
What will the May sale coyote offering be? That is the question!
So if there's a shortage of skins, we should rub our hands together rapidly in glee of the anticipated price increase, right?
Not necessarily. I have talked to some big players across the continent and there has been a sharp rise in the price paid for coyotes, yes, however not in the Canadian Western Heavy. What is happening is the USA goods are being sought after heavily to make up for the anticipated shortfall. One heavy hitter explained that with contracts signed back in the fall, end users are at the end of their buying rope, they are only able to pay so much and that if they are forced to pay higher, they won't. They are seeking inferior skins to make up for their needs, a means to an end, the obligations are met, the strippers can build their stripes and they get thru a difficult year, do what you have to do.
What this means, I believe is that this year's inferior goods are going to have a home and will be sought after, the grade will slide and those lesser goods will bring the bucks.
Upside potential on the extra heavy goods remains a possibility tho, it only takes two people to fight in the high end and the increase. So the big question will be, is anybody going to challenge the coyote king further? Its is possible! I do believe the coyote king would pay more if he had to, but it would take somebody else to also be equally willing to challenge that extra 20 bucks.
One more factor... when goods get too expensive then profit margins fall. Joe Blow on Center Street in every city is only going to pay so much for his winter parka. So if buyer Bob wants to make money, he might use the option to switch to lower priced goods. There is much talk and excitement on the larger sizes of heavy section coon, the pipeline is moving some of this item, maybe more than some. Then when you go to the sales and see racks and racks of stunning beautiful ranch silver fox, ranch cross fox, blue fox, and others and see that you can buy for the whopping sum of 40 US dollars a skin, well you do the speculation! Furriers love the uniformity and size of the ranch goods and the ease of which it is to work with coupled with it being stunning in appearance...
One veteran Western USA dealer that I got to know 25 years ago from selling coyotes to has this to say about a market whereby fashion has put coyote at the top in the utility style goods class: "...One day the ladies are going to wake up and look around and see that everybody is wearing the same thing, and have a sudden and burning desire to look different..."
The same western USA dealer claims there are a ton of American skins out there, and he feels when all's said and done, the market will be satisfied.
One more piece of American wisdom... "...when something has reached the highest point in it's cycle, there's is only one direction left for it to go!..."
Buyers eh? Always raining on the parade!
So anyways... on a more serious note! Yes there has been plenty of low quality goods at least it was so in Southern Alberta. Tough season on the quality, lots and lots of yucky Ave/Lo II's. If there is truly a shortage of quality western heavy coyotes this season, then people will buy the next step down all over the board. It was advertised that the anticipated coyote offering was to be 70,000 skins, however the next estimation was at 60,000 skins, and last I heard the actual offering on the Feb sale is going to be 55,000 skins.
So it sounds like a serious shortage, but is it really going to be??? Numerous serious trappers are reporting substantial collections. Meanwhile the carcass dealers that generally service a very large portion of the shot coyotes in Alberta claim that goods are scarce and hard to find collections.
What will the May sale coyote offering be? That is the question!
So if there's a shortage of skins, we should rub our hands together rapidly in glee of the anticipated price increase, right?
Not necessarily. I have talked to some big players across the continent and there has been a sharp rise in the price paid for coyotes, yes, however not in the Canadian Western Heavy. What is happening is the USA goods are being sought after heavily to make up for the anticipated shortfall. One heavy hitter explained that with contracts signed back in the fall, end users are at the end of their buying rope, they are only able to pay so much and that if they are forced to pay higher, they won't. They are seeking inferior skins to make up for their needs, a means to an end, the obligations are met, the strippers can build their stripes and they get thru a difficult year, do what you have to do.
What this means, I believe is that this year's inferior goods are going to have a home and will be sought after, the grade will slide and those lesser goods will bring the bucks.
Upside potential on the extra heavy goods remains a possibility tho, it only takes two people to fight in the high end and the increase. So the big question will be, is anybody going to challenge the coyote king further? Its is possible! I do believe the coyote king would pay more if he had to, but it would take somebody else to also be equally willing to challenge that extra 20 bucks.
One more factor... when goods get too expensive then profit margins fall. Joe Blow on Center Street in every city is only going to pay so much for his winter parka. So if buyer Bob wants to make money, he might use the option to switch to lower priced goods. There is much talk and excitement on the larger sizes of heavy section coon, the pipeline is moving some of this item, maybe more than some. Then when you go to the sales and see racks and racks of stunning beautiful ranch silver fox, ranch cross fox, blue fox, and others and see that you can buy for the whopping sum of 40 US dollars a skin, well you do the speculation! Furriers love the uniformity and size of the ranch goods and the ease of which it is to work with coupled with it being stunning in appearance...
One veteran Western USA dealer that I got to know 25 years ago from selling coyotes to has this to say about a market whereby fashion has put coyote at the top in the utility style goods class: "...One day the ladies are going to wake up and look around and see that everybody is wearing the same thing, and have a sudden and burning desire to look different..."
The same western USA dealer claims there are a ton of American skins out there, and he feels when all's said and done, the market will be satisfied.
One more piece of American wisdom... "...when something has reached the highest point in it's cycle, there's is only one direction left for it to go!..."
Buyers eh? Always raining on the parade!