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Originally Posted by bdub
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Brookfield has really messed up this bid for IPL. They have been acting like real sharks and they have been pulling a lot of really underhanded stuff, just like they always do. They have shown a lot of small shareholders just how greasy their financial engineering is, and how little transparency they have in their companies. Not only did they fail at getting the Break Fee removed, they now must acquire a full 75% of the company shares to be classed as successful. I really doubt they have any chance of collecting another 55% unless they dramatically increase the cash offer for IPL. I really think that at this stage they are just trying to push the price as high as they can so they can sell the 20% they hold now for $10-15 per share more than they paid for it.
Like I said before, I sold almost all of my IPL shares at $20.25 and bought PPL at $38, so however this turns out I have swapped at way better than the 2 IPl for 1 PPL share swap PPL is offering, I got it at 2 IPL for 1.1 PPL PPL is running 40.25-40.50 now but hit a recent high of 41.25, with IPL still running 20.10 to 20.20. I expect PPL to continue to go up, and they offer a monthly dividend far superior to what IPL was paying.
On the commodities front, lumber has given up all the massive gains in the wholesale price but the price of lumber in stores will be at least 6 months before they start to come down, if they actually do. Oil however continues to climb as supply grows tighter across the world. Rig activity is actually increasing and between Ensign and Precision they are looking to hire +2,000 people in the next couple of months.
High inflation is still being driven by rising food, fuel and housing costs as well as ongoing supply chain disruptions that are months to years from being addressed. Once the governments ramp up taxes to pay for this spending binge we will see that effect added to base inflation.
Canadian Banks will soon be allowed to increase their dividends and start doing share buybacks. U.S. and U.K. banks have already been allowed to do this. The Canadian Banks have come up a long ways from the lows last year but once they are free to increase dividends there is more upside yet. (Exception is BNS who's current payout is already above their target range and Laurentain Bank for the same reason, despite Laurentian slashing their dividend last year.).