The FED and BOC only control the short end of the bond market. They set the FED funds rate and the bond market prices the rest via supply and demand. Something happened at the end of October and you can guess what that was. These are the US treasury rates as of late October and today.
IRX - 13 week rate Oct 24 @ 3.91% Today @ 4.53
FVX - five yr rate Oct 24 @ 4.36 Today @ 3.625
TNX - 10 yr rate Oct 24 @ 4.24 Today @ 3.52
TYX - 30 yr rate Oct 24 @ 4.36 Today @ 3.691
The bond market is telling the Feds that something broke back in late October imo. Time will tell but in hindsight that was probably the pivot point to shift some capital back into long duration assets. As an example gold has gone from $1627 on Nov 3 to $1937 this morning. The TLT, 20+ year treasury bond ETF has gone from $92.40 on Oct 24 to $105.70 today. We will see going forward as events unfold but that's what has happened recently. We will see if the FED is screwing up and the bond market is correct in by the what unfolds over the next year or so.
__________________
There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
|