Financial Markets Meltdown

[Trochu]

Originally Posted by jstubbs

CNRL down 27%. Woof. Virus or no virus, we're in trouble here in Alta.

And thats just today. Down about 60% from February.

[RavYak]

Originally Posted by Justfishin73

Air Canada looking very good

What will Air Canada stock do if flights get shut down? How will the company handle potentially months of flight restrictions?

Lots of stocks look "good" right now but we are still only at 2017 levels, lots of room to fall further depending on how things go these next weeks/months.

I might start buying a bit back but am not in any hurry, I see nothing to make me think there is an upwards reversal about to start and I see lots of possible reasons for more losses.

[fishnguy]

Oil up by over 5%. Futures up as well. How much of a gain tomorrow before another fall?

Automakers shutting down bigly in Europe over sudden drop in demand and supply disruptions.

CNN: Europe's car industry employs 14 million people. It's shutting down

[fishnguy]

Originally Posted by RavYak

I see nothing to make me think there is an upwards reversal about to start and I see lots of possible reasons for more losses.

I agree.

[raab]

Originally Posted by Twisted Canuck

That's the philosophy I have followed....my portfolio is mine to gain or lose on, my house has a small mortgage (equity is about 75-80% at current market valuation) and I currently have zero debt, other than current cc balances which I always pay in full monthly. I have a small cash buffer in my business and savings, as well as some US $ in the safe, a chunk of gold and silver bullion in the safe.....call it a $25k cushion. I can sleep that way.

And it all seems kind of make believe after a while. The problem with the rat race, is that even if you win you're still a rat....

And, we are all going to die. So, keep yourself honest and decent, live with integrity, and let the chips fall. My family and reputation is worth more than my 'net worth'.

I would bet you’re net worth is over 1M based on what you’ve told me. You sound a lot like the millionaire next store. And your absolutely right, money isn’t everything, I’d rather be known for my character, and loved by my family then have a bunch of money and stuff.

[elkhunter11]

The markets are actually looking pretty flat for a change, but that could change quick.

[Justfishin73]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

The markets are actually looking pretty flat for a change, but that could change quick.

Thinking slow, steady downward action all day

[bdub]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

The markets are actually looking pretty flat for a change, but that could change quick.

Originally Posted by Justfishin73

Thinking slow, steady downward action all day

Seems kind of orderly today. We must be getting used to the 5+ % moves. Shell shock is kicking in I think. Under the surface it is still pretty rough with the VIX above 80.

[bdub]

https://towardsdatascience.com/the-a...n-6527e31406f0

Interesting article on market declines and crashes in history. Key highlights.

"Most market declines are small and quickly recovered. Even a 15% decline is recovered on average 5 months after its trough. I guess there is some wisdom to “buying the dip” after all."

"Stock market crashes (declines of 20% or more) are much more painful not only in terms of the magnitude of the decline but also because it takes on average 1.5 to 4.5 years to recover from the damage."

"It sounds obvious when I say it like this — but we are significantly more at risk of a market crash in situations where the S&P 500 has already declined by at least 5%."

"Concentrated positions in the most popular stocks of the day are risky in the late stages of a bull market. These high flyers are punished significantly more so than the overall stock market during a crash."

"During market declines deploy money gradually and with discipline. In a serious decline, the stock market takes at least several months to hit bottom so there should be ample opportunity to average in over time.
And if like in most cases, the market pops back up rapidly, don’t FOMO because you didn’t get to deploy all of your cash. There will always be more buying opportunities down the road."

[bsmitty27]

Smartest thing I've seen since the crash!
Dont jump in with both feet.

[raab]

Things should pick up now, Trump advisor just stated US will be writing cheque’s for Americans.

[fishnguy]

I don’t think that will work. Throwing money at it doesn’t work, as it was already proven. What should work, however, is that the White House seems to be catching on the reality and seriousness of the situation and that may take care of the volatility, somewhat. The net effect, however, will still be negative at least until there is some sense of control of the virus. Then the effects it had on the economy will hit, which some for whatever reason still say will be minimal (and it’s pretty crazy to think so at this point, IMO).

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by raab

Things should pick up now, Trump advisor just stated US will be writing cheque’s for Americans.

The pattern seems to be that every time the feds announce a stimulus, the markets respond with a short term rally, then they fall again. People are realizing that this situation is far from over, and the lack of confidence remains.

[raab]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

The pattern seems to be that every time the feds announce a stimulus, the markets respond with a short term rally, then they fall again. People are realizing that this situation is far from over, and the lack of confidence remains.

We’ll see, big worry was how are people/small businesses going to pay their bills with no income for 2-3 months. I think if nothing changes the market should stabilize now.

[bdub]

Keep China and Iran on the radar. The Wuhan virus spreading in the west is on everyone's mind right now but lots of other crap is happening in those places that could move markets I think. Iran's been bombing US locations in Iraq with US deaths. China's kicking out US journalists. The people in both countries are pssd off at their governments handling of the virus so expect the CCP and the Whacko Iranian leaders to keep trying to deflect blame and shift anger to the US. Things could get a bit testy. Perhaps another oil event, or further escalation of the trade war, or who knows.

[bsmitty27]

^ I mentioned 80 pages ago we should be watching Russia. There might be some big posturing and power struggles through this event. 2020 is going down in history!

[j335]

Russia oil price drop is aimed directly at US, hit them while it’s weak. It ain’t over.

What’s weird is Russia only has 63 cases? Hmm

[slough shark]

Originally Posted by bdub

Keep China and Iran on the radar. The Wuhan virus spreading in the west is on everyone's mind right now but lots of other crap is happening in those places that could move markets I think. Iran's been bombing US locations in Iraq with US deaths. China's kicking out US journalists. The people in both countries are pssd off at their governments handling of the virus so expect the CCP and the Whacko Iranian leaders to keep trying to deflect blame and shift anger to the US. Things could get a bit testy. Perhaps another oil event, or further escalation of the trade war, or who knows.

Iran is an interesting spot as they are one of the hardest hit by corona virus and I suspect their numbers are way under reported yet they are finding time in the midst of dealing with that to bomb American bases in Iraq.

It’s a pretty fluid situation and we are seeing most countries retrenching and focusing on themselves which is something we haven’t seen in a while (Trudeau being the exception giving money to other countries still). There are some possible good outcomes from this also some possible horrible ones, we shall see what route it goes.

[Mr Flyguy]

Originally Posted by j335

Russia oil price drop is aimed directly at US, hit them while it’s weak. It ain’t over.

What’s weird is Russia only has 63 cases? Hmm

They don't count the ones in the Gulags.

[fishnguy]

There are over 100 cases in Russia now. Hard to believe, I know. Some say they have taken great measures and did good job containing it. President of Finland even expressed his gratitude to Russia a couple of weeks ago (or a week?) for the measures they took that apparently were very beneficial for the Finland’s COVID situation. Go figure.

Russia doesn’t have resources or will to invade anyone at this point. They have enough on their hands as it is.

[1stLand]

Wouldn't this be the perfect time for China to invade America?
They would mobilize and come to Canada first (easy target, weak army, largely unarmed citizens)

[HalfBreed]

Originally Posted by 1stLand

Wouldn't this be the perfect time for China to invade America?
They would mobilize and come to Canada first (easy target, weak army, largely unarmed citizens)

Yes.

[straight]

Originally Posted by j335

Russia oil price drop is aimed directly at US, hit them while it’s weak.

Russia did not drop oil price, Saudi did it.

[straight]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

...Russia doesn’t have resources or will to invade anyone at this point. They have enough on their hands as it is.

Russia is big enough and rich with resources, they don't need to invade any country. Russia never invaded Canada, but Canada invaded Russia. Google it.

[Buckhead]

Originally Posted by 1stLand

Wouldn't this be the perfect time for China to invade America?
They would mobilize and come to Canada first (easy target, weak army, largely unarmed citizens)

I assure you that the US would never allow that to happen. There is also something called NATO. I wouldn't lose any sleep over that issue.

[Trochu]

Originally Posted by Buckhead

I assure you that the US would never allow that to happen. There is also something called NATO. I wouldn't lose any sleep over that issue.

I think he's saying they'd attack the US through Canada. I doubt the Chinese would ask for US permission prior to attacking them.

[Buckhead]

Originally Posted by Trochu

I think he's saying they'd attack the US through Canada. I doubt the Chinese would ask for US permission prior to attacking them.

Yes, that is what I said. Do you think the US would allow China to occupy Canada?
Let's not let our imaginations run wild.

[j335]

Originally Posted by straight

Russia did not drop oil price, Saudi did it.

US puts sanctions on Russia’s oil major Rosneft for moving Venezuela crude Feb 18th, 2 weeks later refuses to cut oil and we have an oil war. This is not a conspiracy at all, pretty straight forward what’s happening. Hit them while they are weak (USA).

[fishtank]

Trending back to red .... struggling to stay afloat just don’t have any positive momentum.

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by Trochu

I think he's saying they'd attack the US through Canada. I doubt the Chinese would ask for US permission prior to attacking them.

And I think idiots fomenting irrational fears should get a couple of solid kicks to the nutzs. Anyone who thinks a conventional war is even a remote possibility is a pure idiot that has been watching too much tv and spending too much time on social media. We have enough real problems without buttwipes like this making it worse.