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01-05-2015, 07:06 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: edmonton
Posts: 1,428
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Junglefisher
I'm in construction. I honestly expect to lose my job withing the next 12 months.
I agree with you, most people don't realise how much they will be affected.
There was a thread here a while back, all sorts of people saying that they were safe. One that sticks to mind was a body mechanic saying that people would still be denting their trucks. Yeah, but who pays for a dent repair when the choice is that or food?
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The housing boom is all about the oil boom, the oil bust will hit housing.... i drive around edmonton and it just looks like every store/business that isnt oil and gas related is some sort of building supply service or store. Sooo many people use real estate as investments these days too, everyone and their dog at work seems to have rental properties or buying houses to invest etc.
I could forsee losing my job too, the corporation will go after the pee-ons to keep profit up and i am just a bug crawling along the floor that costs the company money.
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01-05-2015, 07:35 PM
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Banned
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Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 2,052
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The price of oil dipped as much in 2009 and it was higher leading up to the dip
There is a lot of negative sentiment in this thread I gotta say from nasty opinions about people who levereged themselves into huge amounts of debt and may lose everything to the other end of the spectrum where you have posters hoping the real estate maket crashes so they can manage to buy a home at the loss of another.
All I can say is the "sour grapes" attitude is pretty disheartening.Pretty pathetic when people look forward to life to go down the toilet for other people when the exact same situation will also do them harm but to a lesser affect.
As for the fearmongering over the price of oil it is overblown and the market reaction today was just exactly how the stock market works and what drives it...GREED and FEAR especially after the "Santa Clause" rally in the last 2 weeks.
I do like that it cost me only $33 to fill up my vehicle today.But I dont like the oil price slide as an Albertan and what it portends for the future and even more specifically I dont like it as a Calgary taxpayer who has a tax & spend socialist mayor who wants a 4.6% year over year tax increase to pay for his socialist agenda.
Damn glad I got my home paid off outright last March and I wont be stupid enough to take equity out of it by a financial instrument from a company like Arron Acceptance Corp etc.
FTH
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01-05-2015, 08:00 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 8,379
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Hmmm.....
Anyone else notice.....?
The team and the commodity are tanking.....
Coincidence?......
You tell me.
__________________
"How vain it is to sit down to write when you have not stood up to live.”
-HDT
"A vote is like a rifle; its usefulness depends on the character of the user." T. Roosevelt
"I don't always troll, only on days that end in Y."
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01-05-2015, 08:11 PM
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Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 2,169
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Quote:
Originally Posted by From The Hip
There is a lot of negative sentiment in this thread I gotta say from nasty opinions about people who levereged themselves into huge amounts of debt and may lose everything to the other end of the spectrum where you have posters hoping the real estate maket crashes so they can manage to buy a home at the loss of another.
All I can say is the "sour grapes" attitude is pretty disheartening.Pretty pathetic when people look forward to life to go down the toilet for other people when the exact same situation will also do them harm but to a lesser affect.
As for the fearmongering over the price of oil it is overblown and the market reaction today was just exactly how the stock market works and what drives it...GREED and FEAR especially after the "Santa Clause" rally in the last 2 weeks.
I do like that it cost me only $33 to fill up my vehicle today.But I dont like the oil price slide as an Albertan and what it portends for the future and even more specifically I dont like it as a Calgary taxpayer who has a tax & spend socialist mayor who wants a 4.6% year over year tax increase to pay for his socialist agenda.
Damn glad I got my home paid off outright last March and I wont be stupid enough to take equity out of it by a financial instrument from a company like Arron Acceptance Corp etc.
FTH
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Oil price drop over blown? Wcs went from 84$ barrel average in q3 to sitting at 34$ and west texas from i think 94$ average in q3. Something that represents 25% of canadas export revenue just took a 55% price cut lol.
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01-05-2015, 08:18 PM
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Join Date: May 2009
Location: Vancouver island, Calgary S.E
Posts: 143
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Macdrizzle
its called price wars
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im talking bomb war
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01-05-2015, 08:22 PM
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Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: north of edm
Posts: 930
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elkdump
That should compute into about $0.25cents a litre for gas at the pump !
Whoopee .!
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One good thing is that maybe Ken will stop crabbing about gas and diesel.
I for one am fortunate that I just signed a contarct that ensures my income for 2015.
I feel sorry for those that are tied directly to the price of oil and wish no one any bad will + hope everone weathers the storm....but even it means my properties may go down I for one would not mind a bit of a mass exodiuos or a slight decline in the population. Unfortunatly in 8-12 months it will all start to get back to the rat race the oil industry demands....
L.S.
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01-05-2015, 08:22 PM
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Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 6,928
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I'd like to own a home, been saving for one too. thought the more I save, the higher the prices get.
probably going to have to use my savings to make it through the lean times now.
hope my truck doesn't die on me, that would hit me really hard.
hope the company I work for survives, and the companies we call customers and the good hands out in the field I talk to on the phone make it through too.
at least I don't have any of the typical consumer debt.
sure is nice filling up though. could use that extra cash in the savings account.
I don't know if I should be worried, or frightened. I've lived on a lot less, but my cost of living was a lot less too. tough times are ahead.
__________________
Respond, not react. - Saskatchewan proverb
We learn from history that we do not learn from history. - Hegel
Your obligation to fight has not been relieved because the battle is fierce and difficult. Ben Shapiro
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01-05-2015, 08:28 PM
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Moderator
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Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Wheatland County
Posts: 5,828
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Unfortunate we couldn't have a correction/easing instead of a bust. Truly guys wages & lifestyles were out of sync with not only non oil industries but other provinces as well. TFW, useless #*#@ employees, the works associated with an overheated product/industry had only one way to go. Oil is a finite product that should be harvested in a sustainable fashion, would be much easier on all Albertans & Canadian tax-payers as a whole. I really feel for the divorces, bankruptcies, stresses coming to a lot of people. Please people keep talking to one another, family, friends & remember the sun will rise tomorrow, even if it's pretty cloudy out. All the best!!
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01-05-2015, 08:33 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Nelson BC
Posts: 2,042
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Oil pricing has been raised artificially for some time and a price correction was inevitable. But as in all periods of supply outstripping demand, certain suppliers will be put out of business and others will continue to flourish. The correction wont be drawn out like the recession and will likely hit other world producers harder than Canada.
In the meantime the oil and dollar price fall will be a dramatic positive impact to Canadian manufacturing and exports, and put more residual income in the hands of the consumer.
It is not all doom and gloom.
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01-05-2015, 08:37 PM
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Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 6,928
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nelsonob1
Oil pricing has been raised artificially for some time and a price correction was inevitable. But as in all periods of supply outstripping demand, certain suppliers will be put out of business and others will continue to flourish. The correction wont be drawn out like the recession and will likely hit other world producers harder than Canada.
In the meantime the oil and dollar price fall will be a dramatic positive impact to Canadian manufacturing and exports, and put more residual income in the hands of the consumer.
It is not all doom and gloom.
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most other commodities are very low now, and free trade has seen a lot of Canada's manufacturing sent away.
it's not all doom and gloom, but Nelson see's a lot of tourist income from AB. I'm one of them, and a lot of the guys in the fishing forum are too.
__________________
Respond, not react. - Saskatchewan proverb
We learn from history that we do not learn from history. - Hegel
Your obligation to fight has not been relieved because the battle is fierce and difficult. Ben Shapiro
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01-05-2015, 08:56 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Nelson BC
Posts: 2,042
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild&Free
most other commodities are very low now, and free trade has seen a lot of Canada's manufacturing sent away.
it's not all doom and gloom, but Nelson see's a lot of tourist income from AB. I'm one of them, and a lot of the guys in the fishing forum are too.
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Agreed, but many other commodities will rebound as the low oil price stimulates world manufacturing and a global improvement in consumer spending helps stabilize economic growth generally. China will benefit tremendously from low oil prices and this will in return stimulate other commodity pricing.
IMO the market will adjust in a positive direction and Alberta/Albertans will benefit in part by that adjustment.
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01-05-2015, 09:16 PM
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Join Date: May 2011
Location: moving to quesnel
Posts: 3,013
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another thread ...gas at 69.4 in edmonton
this is what i want to see ... i can see the hiway now like a sexy woman beconing me... like a lover at the bedroom door
.. snap out of it wayne !!!
lol cheap gas does me no harm .. sorry you that are in the bad place ... looks like it is going to be bumpy.. sell the toys now while there are people with cash to buy.
and that is no dig ... my best to ya
"hang on ta yer hats boys..looks like shes gonna blow"
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Do not squander time, for that is the stuff life is made of.......Ben Franklin
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01-05-2015, 09:53 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Okotoks
Posts: 1,090
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmcbride
What do you mean by this?^^
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I'm just guessing here but what I suspect he means is Canada has historically derived it's wealth from exploiting our natural resources. Throughout our history there has always been a place where your blue collar, work with your hands, person has been drawn too. A place where a day of honest hard work could put a roof over your head, a pickup in the driveway and a good middle class life.
Through the decades with the ups and down of various resource industries that place has varied from the woods of BC, the mines of northern ON/QC, oceans off each coast to the auto industry of southern ON. For the last 10-15 years that place has been Alberta, with Fort McMurray as the eye of the storm. I lived there for a decade and we use to say that it was the last place in Canada a blue collar kid could possibly start right out of high school with a company and spend their entire working life there, retiring from a stable employer and not having had to worry about the constant threat of layoffs. Places like that use to exist all over the country, but sadly most if not all of them are gone now. We've exported most of our blue collar work that is not tied directly to resource extraction to the third world in order to be able to buy things cheaper at Wally World.
Let's be honest, if things get as bad as some say the blue collar worker is going to have very few options for stable employment that offers the opportunity to have that good middle class life that so many of us are presently enjoying.
Damn, gotta stop drinking the good scotch, I'm getting all philosophical.
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01-05-2015, 09:57 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: In your personal space.
Posts: 4,789
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I have often thought (and I may be wrong) that we should be exporting the same amount of oil as we always have it should just be in a different form. Instead of a 36" pipeline of crude, it should be in 1 litre bottles marked 10w-30 etc.
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01-05-2015, 09:58 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: On top of sphagetti
Posts: 3,565
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I like the cheap gas prices, but I would gladly pay the 1.15 or whatever if it means that guys will be able to provide for their families. Good luck to everyone in the upcoming year!
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01-05-2015, 09:59 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: On top of sphagetti
Posts: 3,565
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergerboy
I have often thought (and I may be wrong) that we should be exporting the same amount of oil as we always have it should just be in a different form. Instead of a 36" pipeline of crude, it should be in 1 litre bottles marked 10w-30 etc.
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Yes, more finished product. More high paying jobs close to the big cities.
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01-05-2015, 10:06 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: In a forest, somewhere in WMU 506
Posts: 217
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergerboy
I have often thought (and I may be wrong) that we should be exporting the same amount of oil as we always have it should just be in a different form. Instead of a 36" pipeline of crude, it should be in 1 litre bottles marked 10w-30 etc.
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There was an insight article on this exact topic in the Saturday edition of the Edm Journal in the business section written by a Energy/utilities consultant. Very good read.
His comments were spoken in the last downturn of 08/09…. Unfortunately, not many lessons were learned from the great recession by the Government or Industry...
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01-05-2015, 10:08 PM
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Join Date: May 2011
Location: Calgary
Posts: 1,681
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergerboy
I have often thought (and I may be wrong) that we should be exporting the same amount of oil as we always have it should just be in a different form. Instead of a 36" pipeline of crude, it should be in 1 litre bottles marked 10w-30 etc.
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We do that too. I've watched them package the 1l containers of motor oil at the Esso strathcona refinery. But we simply don't have enough refining capacity in Ab to eliminate the need to export unrefined oil.
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01-05-2015, 10:10 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: one Fort or another
Posts: 768
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01-05-2015, 10:12 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: In your personal space.
Posts: 4,789
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Just simply more infrastructure and longevity of our resources and less susceptible to commodity price swings. Imagine the trickle down effect of all the other spin-off business like trades people. Unfortunately all we care about is the closest carrot to our nose. We seem to want to burn the candle today and leave nothing for the kids of tomorrow.
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01-05-2015, 10:14 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: In your personal space.
Posts: 4,789
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sushi
We do that too. I've watched them package the 1l containers of motor oil at the Esso strathcona refinery. But we simply don't have enough refining capacity in Ab to eliminate the need to export unrefined oil.
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The reason why we export so much was a Brian Mulroney deal. He made commitments for us. If we didn't have these commitments inked in the 80's there would be no problem to come up with the capital to refine the oil locally.
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01-05-2015, 10:14 PM
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Join Date: May 2011
Location: Calgary
Posts: 1,681
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Some of you guys suggesting the downside consequence amounts to overextended credit users losing a few toys are missing the point. The real loss is billions evaporating from the investment portfolios of all Canadians, some of us who are fiscally responsible and invest rather than spend on toys.
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01-05-2015, 10:17 PM
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Join Date: May 2011
Location: Calgary
Posts: 1,681
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergerboy
The reason why we export so much was a Brian Mulroney deal. He made commitments for us. If we didn't have these commitments inked in the 80's there would be no problem to come up with the capital to refine the oil locally.
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The capital would be there if the business case were so. Cheaper to refine elsewhere unfortunately. THats commerce.
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01-05-2015, 10:23 PM
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Moderator
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Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Wheatland County
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sushi
Some of you guys suggesting the downside consequence amounts to overextended credit users losing a few toys are missing the point. The real loss is billions evaporating from the investment portfolios of all Canadians, some of us who are fiscally responsible and invest rather than spend on toys.
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Wealth is relative; investors usually have more than spenders......until it is taxed away from us- we hope JT never gets in- that is flat scary, saving & investing then supporting the lads & lassies who had way more fun than us who retired broke.
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01-05-2015, 10:39 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: In your personal space.
Posts: 4,789
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sushi
The capital would be there if the business case were so. Cheaper to refine elsewhere unfortunately. THats commerce.
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No offence but this is incorrect. Look into bitumen shipments to the East and South, factor in transmission costs with refinement costs. This is a bad political deal, that is all.
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01-05-2015, 10:43 PM
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Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 2,169
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arty
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They switch who gets discounts, they had prices up on europe and the usa for a bit while discounting asia. Now they are offering bigger discounts in europe and usa.
They arent the only ones up to discounting, mexico and venezuela are giving 4$ discounts on south america heavy crude to compete with canadian prices for wcs. China was buying oil from columbia a few weeks ago because they were discounting.
Lots of oil is sub 50$ already to get the stuff unloaded.
The only one that can cut on their own is saudi arabia, everyone else is pretty much stuck producing.
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01-05-2015, 10:58 PM
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Join Date: May 2011
Location: Calgary
Posts: 1,681
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergerboy
No offence but this is incorrect. Look into bitumen shipments to the East and South, factor in transmission costs with refinement costs. This is a bad political deal, that is all.
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I think you forgot to factor in the cost to build new refineries here plus still be required to export since refined or not, it would be surplus to our needs, plus the opportunity cost of under utilized refineries in those areas you decided not to export crude to. Dig deeper and you may begin to understand.
Last edited by Sushi; 01-05-2015 at 11:12 PM.
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01-05-2015, 10:58 PM
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Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 883
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergerboy
No offence but this is incorrect. Look into bitumen shipments to the East and South, factor in transmission costs with refinement costs. This is a bad political deal, that is all.
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I've always wondered why we didn't refine here. One thought I had was ambient temp and what kind of cost difference you're looking at? Would the freezing temps for 6 months equal the cost/energy to pump it somewhere warmer?
I'm leaning to more political than cost but I haven't ran the numbers.
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01-06-2015, 12:01 AM
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Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Nelson BC
Posts: 2,042
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergerboy
No offence but this is incorrect. Look into bitumen shipments to the East and South, factor in transmission costs with refinement costs. This is a bad political deal, that is all.
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I agree. Distribution cost is typically more of an issue with products of a declining material index, ie as the value to weight ratio falls, the closer you need to be to your market.
The barrier to refinement is more political and cultural, than economic. And those who would like to see Canada succeed in the longer term would be better served by encouraging industries that refine their product and economies.
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01-06-2015, 12:02 AM
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Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,808
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Quote:
Originally Posted by avb3
Do you really think those that have been responsible during the boom will be hurt? Some will, no doubt, and those we should all feel for, but how many do you know who NEEDED that 66K truck and similarity priced RV, all the quads, expensive vacations, large bar and restaurant tabs, McMansion, latest and greatest electronic toys etc etc. All of it financed to the limit.
Those I have no empathy for as they didn't think and were irresponsible. They'll recover, become responsible, and when they try to pass the lessons on, there will be a new group of know it all high flyers.
That cycle had been part of Alberta for decades.
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You hold on to your money then dont spend it ...it is probably the only enjoyment you will have in this life..
Mack
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