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09-15-2019, 05:58 PM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,714
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rig-Rat
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Wti is trading up 11% now and Brent is up 13%. Trump opened the taps to their strategic reserves. The risk premium is being priced back into the market.
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There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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09-15-2019, 09:18 PM
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Join Date: May 2010
Location: edmonton
Posts: 3,915
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Gold price should see a pop too
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09-16-2019, 09:06 AM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,714
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean2
Well, six months from now we will know which of us is right. If you are, I will make a bit of money on the oil and drilling stocks I bought, if I am right I will have made a lot of money on those shares. I will try to remember to post an update In 90 days.
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Pretty awesome gains so far today and this is just getting more interesting as new info comes out.
The weapons used are from Iran and didn't come out of Iraq. The damage is more extensive than first thought, repairs will take much longer than a few days to repair, talking months now. OPEC and Russia are holding off on bringing on more supply. Yemen rebels promise more attacks to come.
Is Saudi Arabia's response going to take out Iranian oil production? That's a big question we might not have to wait to long to get the answer for.
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There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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09-16-2019, 10:11 AM
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Near Edmonton
Posts: 15,635
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdub
Pretty awesome gains so far today and this is just getting more interesting as new info comes out.
The weapons used are from Iran and didn't come out of Iraq. The damage is more extensive than first thought, repairs will take much longer than a few days to repair, talking months now. OPEC and Russia are holding off on bringing on more supply. Yemen rebels promise more attacks to come.
Is Saudi Arabia's response going to take out Iranian oil production? That's a big question we might not have to wait to long to get the answer for.
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Something no one is talking about is that oil from Saudi is Light Sweet crude. A lot of the available capacity in Russia and even some of OPEC is med to heavy and much of it is sour. Many facilities can only process light crude and replacing that much lost production of that particular type is not all that easy. Repair of the damage to date will take many months to get back to full production, and that assumes there are no further strikes. If the Saudis and Iran get at it, that would likely shut down the straight of Hormuz, which would have a huge impact.
Most of the shares I suggested people look at above are already up over 10%. We shall see if those gains hold over the next couple of days and continue to grow or whether it is just the knee Jerk, program trade initial reaction.
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09-16-2019, 10:39 AM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,714
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean2
Well, six months from now we will know which of us is right. If you are, I will make a bit of money on the oil and drilling stocks I bought, if I am right I will have made a lot of money on those shares. I will try to remember to post an update In 90 days.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean2
Something no one is talking about is that oil from Saudi is Light Sweet crude. A lot of the available capacity in Russia and even some of OPEC is med to heavy and much of it is sour. Many facilities can only process light crude and replacing that much lost production of that particular type is not all that easy. Repair of the damage to date will take many months to get back to full production, and that assumes there are no further strikes. If the Saudis and Iran get at it, that would likely shut down the straight of Hormuz, which would have a huge impact.
Most of the shares I suggested people look at above are already up over 10%. We shall see if those gains hold over the next couple of days and continue to grow or whether it is just the knee Jerk, program trade initial reaction.
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Exactly, that's 20% of the worlds oil supply going though there. Saudi Arabia has about a month of supplies in storage. If the repairs take longer than that and/or we have further escalation that will throw a serious dent in supply.
Trading volume is very heavy on CNQ, SU etc. I've been keeping and eye on the Brent/WTI/WCS discount with interest, so far they are pretty much moving in tandem. Interesting times indeed.
I expect gold is going to move along here as well, despite the huge move we've had already this year. It was looking like it was taking a breather but I think that's over.
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There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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09-16-2019, 12:28 PM
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Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Caroline
Posts: 7,503
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__________________
Two reasons you may think CO2 is a pollutant
1.You weren't paying attention in grade 5
2. You're stupid
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09-16-2019, 12:36 PM
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Banned
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,158
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean2
Most of the shares I suggested people look at above are already up over 10%. We shall see if those gains hold over the next couple of days and continue to grow or whether it is just the knee Jerk, program trade initial reaction.
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It's easy to recommend oil stocks after the biggest supply disruption in history occurs.
In hindsight, if you would have been buying CDN oil equities in August when the blood was in the streets, you'd be up over 50 points in some of these.
Let's hope this is the beginning of a bull run for oil. Canadian oil equities are embarrassingly lagging however. Look at Whiting Petroleum, up over 50% today.
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09-16-2019, 12:44 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Near Edmonton
Posts: 15,635
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deer Hunter
It's easy to recommend oil stocks after the biggest supply disruption in history occurs.
In hindsight, if you would have been buying CDN oil equities in August when the blood was in the streets, you'd be up over 50 points in some of these.
Let's hope this is the beginning of a bull run for oil. Canadian oil equities are embarrassingly lagging however. Look at Whiting Petroleum, up over 50% today.
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I was buying back in August and July but I doubled down big time with market open buy orders this morning. You know somewhere along the line that oil supplies are going to get repriced higher. Oil company shares were heavily over sold even at $55 oil and were throwing off tremendous cash flow but I had not expected a near term huge bump like this. Anyone that can predict this kind of thing would truly impress me.
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09-16-2019, 01:52 PM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,714
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean2
I was buying back in August and July but I doubled down big time with market open buy orders this morning. You know somewhere along the line that oil supplies are going to get repriced higher. Oil company shares were heavily over sold even at $55 oil and were throwing off tremendous cash flow but I had not expected a near term huge bump like this. Anyone that can predict this kind of thing would truly impress me.
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I don't think anyone can predict the future with certainty but there were plenty of signs that tensions were heating up all spring and summer with Iran. They have hit a couple pumping stations, tried to sink a few ships, seized a couple ships etc. etc. yet the market has barely paid any attention until now. That the market was barely registering a risk premium is what I find surprising. Investors have seemed way to complacent I think.
China also has a big stake in Iran. That's another thing that should be on folks radar.
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There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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09-16-2019, 01:59 PM
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Join Date: May 2010
Location: edmonton
Posts: 3,915
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdub
I don't think anyone can predict the future with certainty but there were plenty of signs that tensions were heating up all spring and summer with Iran. They have hit a couple pumping stations, tried to sink a few ships, seized a couple ships etc. etc. yet the market has barely paid any attention until now. That the market was barely registering a risk premium is what I find surprising. Investors have seemed way to complacent I think.
China also has a big stake in Iran. That's another thing that should be on folks radar.
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They cant predict it but They sure can manipulate it  almost Every us oil companies stock pop +10% today ..
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09-16-2019, 02:01 PM
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Calgary
Posts: 19,433
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdub
China also has a big stake in Iran. That's another thing that should be on folks radar.
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I'm suddenly picturing a proxy war with China in Iran while tons of Canadians and Americans simultaneously fund the PRC war machine by shopping at WalMart, Canadian Tire and, well, everywhere 
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"The trouble with people idiot-proofing things, is the resulting evolution of the idiot." Me
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09-16-2019, 02:01 PM
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Join Date: Mar 2008
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Considering the POTUS has stated the US is "locked and loaded", in reference to Iran, things could get even more interesting. That $100/bl might not me that much of a stretch
__________________
Two reasons you may think CO2 is a pollutant
1.You weren't paying attention in grade 5
2. You're stupid
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09-16-2019, 02:06 PM
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Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Caroline
Posts: 7,503
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean2
Repair of the damage to date will take many months to get back to full production, and that assumes there are no further strikes..
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You mean the worlds largest oil refining facility won't be up and running in a matter of a few days due to, and I quote, their safety standards are nothing like what we have here?
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Two reasons you may think CO2 is a pollutant
1.You weren't paying attention in grade 5
2. You're stupid
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09-16-2019, 03:33 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Near Edmonton
Posts: 15,635
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MountainTi
You mean the worlds largest oil refining facility won't be up and running in a matter of a few days due to, and I quote, their safety standards are nothing like what we have here?
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 You hit that quote on the head!! On top of many really uniformed comments there are two things that amaze me from what I have seen on this thread. Most people didn't buy any oil stocks despite it being completely clear they should with some have even implied by pm that making money from this is morally wrong, and finally that there are so many who still believe the media's stupid conjecture rather than the clear facts the video feeds provide.
It will become really clear in the next few days what is really going on but at a minimum there will be a risk premium applied to oil pricing and that hasn't been the case for a long time. By itself that will drive upward pressure on oil company stock prices longer term.
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09-16-2019, 04:24 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2016
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You don't have enough crayons for them all
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean2
some have even implied by pm that making money from this is morally wrong, and finally that there are so many who still believe the media's stupid conjecture rather than the clear facts the video feeds provide.
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I don't agree with everything George said, but this reminder needs to be repeated every single day.
PsyOps 101 during war- The Saudi's are not going to give up any information that will make their enemy believe they succeeded in their attempt to hurt them. The truth will only come out after the end of hostilities.
__________________
“One of the sad signs of our times is that we have demonized those who produce, subsidized those who refuse to produce, and canonized those who complain.” - Thomas Sowell
“We seem to be getting closer and closer to a situation where nobody is responsible for what they did but we are all responsible for what somebody else did.”- Thomas Sowell
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09-16-2019, 04:28 PM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,714
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaberTosser
I'm suddenly picturing a proxy war with China in Iran while tons of Canadians and Americans simultaneously fund the PRC war machine by shopping at WalMart, Canadian Tire and, well, everywhere |
No kidding. That's what is really worrying about what's going on. China just signed a deal with Iran to build up it's oil industry, infrastructure including sending "5000 security personal to the region" to protect it's interests including protection of Iranian oil etc. through the Persian Gulf. We should have never allowed China to gain the power it has now. The west was really stupid in that regard.
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There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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09-16-2019, 04:55 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2016
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25 years too late
Quote:
Originally Posted by bdub
No kidding. That's what is really worrying about what's going on. China just signed a deal with Iran to build up it's oil industry, infrastructure including sending "5000 security personal to the region" to protect it's interests including protection of Iranian oil etc. through the Persian Gulf. We should have never allowed China to gain the power it has now. The west was really stupid in that regard.
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Anyone remember the steel shortage back in the early 90's? China started buying up the world's steel production, claiming they needed steel for infrastructure projects? Foundries around the world canceled/delayed existing supply contracts to fill orders from China at premium $$. North American and European businesses had no choice but to pay even higher premiums for product they already had signed contracts for?
Well, China was building some infrastructure at the time, but the majority of the steel was going into building up their ground forces: light armour, heavy armour and artillery. By 2004 (+/-) they had more equipment on the ground than all of NATO's forces combined.
In the early 2000's they started expanding their deepwater naval capability. Prior to this, China's navy was limited to littoral operations. Conservative estimates by private defense intelligence places China currently in second place for deepwater naval capacity, soon to be in first place with number of ships, airstrike capabilities, and troop transport capability.
They have been seeking large volume, secure energy sources for years. A partnership with an embargoed country that includes the requirement for military protection fits neatly into their plans.
__________________
“One of the sad signs of our times is that we have demonized those who produce, subsidized those who refuse to produce, and canonized those who complain.” - Thomas Sowell
“We seem to be getting closer and closer to a situation where nobody is responsible for what they did but we are all responsible for what somebody else did.”- Thomas Sowell
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09-16-2019, 07:01 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 2,443
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdub
No kidding. That's what is really worrying about what's going on. China just signed a deal with Iran to build up it's oil industry, infrastructure including sending "5000 security personal to the region" to protect it's interests including protection of Iranian oil etc. through the Persian Gulf.
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IIRC, the deal also provides China with two permanent Navy bases, one in the Gulf, and one on the ocean and well positioned on the Belt & Road.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bdub
We should have never allowed China to gain the power it has now. The west was really stupid in that regard.
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We could not stop it.
USA vs China = stalemate every time they tried.
More ordinance was used in Vietnam than in all of WWII,
CN is a LOT more capable an opponent than VN.
They play chess we play checkers.
Strategic beats tactical
Hegemons and their reserve currencies are cyclical;
China, Russia, India & SCO are ascendant,
Anglo European is in decline and basically living on counterfeit money and credit debt.
It is called the Thucydides Trap.
https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...s-trap/406756/
https://www.quora.com/What-is-Thucyd...s-Trap?share=1
We live in interesting times,
Good Luck, YMMV.
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09-17-2019, 09:17 AM
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Near Edmonton
Posts: 15,635
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So in the interests of full disclosure, sold off the shares I bought at market open, at end of day yesterday. Overall yield on the 7 hour hold 8.6%. Still holding the base share positions I had before the big run up yesterday. The shares will come off a bit for the next few days as the panic settles out and then I expect them to start a slow and volatile upward march for at least the next few months. Despite the shortage, oil is still tremendously unloved, especially the Canadian stocks, so not the sector to be over weight in, even now.
Oil is holding onto its gains from yesterday and it is coming out that Saudi production will be curtailed for many months. The Saudis are even warning that Oct and Nov shipments will be delayed or cancelled in many cases. They even have issues getting oil that is in storage out for shipping.
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09-17-2019, 09:18 AM
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Join Date: May 2010
Location: edmonton
Posts: 3,915
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Quote:
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Oil plunged nearly 7% in London after Reuters reported Saudi Arabia is close to restoring 70% of the oil production it lost after this weekend’s attack on a key crude facility in the kingdom.
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. That’s was quick
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09-17-2019, 09:25 AM
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Banned
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,158
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Lots of fake news out there by oil market experts.
Manipulating prices by those with agendas is becoming common...
Even though it's off 6% now, it wouldn't surprise me to see it close up.
Volatility is big money to some.
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09-17-2019, 09:27 AM
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Near Edmonton
Posts: 15,635
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fishtank
. That’s was quick
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Quote:
Quote:
Oil plunged nearly 7% in London after Reuters reported Saudi Arabia is close to restoring 70% of the oil production it lost after this weekend’s attack on a key crude facility in the kingdom.
. That’s was quick
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Not to put too fine a point on it, but I think the Saudis are lying through their teeth. Not by any stretch a first for them, remember, according to them they had nothing to do with Jamal Khashoggi's death, and that is just one of their smaller crimes. I will believe this when I see it. The stock market makes big swings based on Tweets from the petulant child south of the border so it isn't a really operating on well informed set of decisions, at least in the short term.
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09-17-2019, 09:32 AM
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Near Edmonton
Posts: 15,635
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deer Hunter
Lots of fake news out there by oil market experts.
Manipulating prices by those with agendas is becoming common...
Even though it's off 6% now, it wouldn't surprise me to see it close up.
Volatility is big money to some.
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I agree completely. A lot of money gets made with these big swings and it isn't by your average retail investor.
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09-17-2019, 12:45 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 4,858
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean2
I was buying back in August and July but I doubled down big time with market open buy orders this morning. You know somewhere along the line that oil supplies are going to get repriced higher. Oil company shares were heavily over sold even at $55 oil and were throwing off tremendous cash flow but I had not expected a near term huge bump like this. Anyone that can predict this kind of thing would truly impress me.
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You can't predict these things. Buy good companies at cheap values and hold. Eventually you'll get lucky with a few. For example I bought a greenhouse tomatoe grower at a dollar. They decided to get into marijuana a few years later. My first 10 bagger. The market is only a gamble if you dont know what your doing, and dont have patience.
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“If all mankind minus one, were of one opinion, and only one person were of the contrary opinion, mankind would be no more justified in silencing that one person, than he, if he had the power, would be justified in silencing mankind.” John Stuart Mill
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09-18-2019, 10:15 AM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,714
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean2
I agree completely. A lot of money gets made with these big swings and it isn't by your average retail investor.
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Hey Dean. Any idea what's going on in the repo markets? Is it related to the attack? It's shaking things up a bit and I don't get what's going on or what it really means for other markets.
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There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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09-18-2019, 11:42 AM
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Near Edmonton
Posts: 15,635
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdub
Hey Dean. Any idea what's going on in the repo markets? Is it related to the attack? It's shaking things up a bit and I don't get what's going on or what it really means for other markets.
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I don't watch the repo market as it is basically overnight borrowing like the banks have but for investors. The froth is far more likely related to the US fed buying 53 billion in Short Term treauries to influence interest rates. Unlikely this market would be affected by oil unless there are a lot of people making big overnight bets on oil price and this isn't likely where they would fund that from.
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09-18-2019, 12:04 PM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,714
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean2
I don't watch the repo market as it is basically overnight borrowing like the banks have but for investors. The froth is far more likely related to the US fed buying 53 billion in Short Term treauries to influence interest rates. Unlikely this market would be affected by oil unless there are a lot of people making big overnight bets on oil price and this isn't likely where they would fund that from.
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Thanks. I don't watch it either. There is some speculation it was caused by margin calls on traders caught on the wrong side of the trade in oil due to the attacks. Seems to be a big (or not so big deal).
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There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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09-18-2019, 12:52 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: On the border in Lloydminster
Posts: 8,455
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How would Trump lighting up Iran affect the price of oil? If it was up to Pompeo the bombers would already be in the air.
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09-18-2019, 03:01 PM
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Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Stuck between wmu 110, 302 & 305
Posts: 1,023
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Iran
Quote:
Originally Posted by bat119
How would Trump lighting up Iran affect the price of oil? If it was up to Pompeo the bombers would already be in the air.
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Since Iran is under total lock down with sanctions I don’t think it would have any real effect on the price of oil. But any excuse to jack up the price....
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