Covid 19: Medical / Technical Thread

[reddeerguy2015]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus...m_source=share

Incase the tinfoil hat crowd hasn't had enough - this Reddit thread touches on the economy, disrupted supply chains, closed factories, no/low shipping by sea and air and how all our lives are going to change very much so, very quickly, if this thing doesn't get sorted out. And fast.

Stock up on dry goods, water, propane and gasoline folks.

Or.... If nothing else, enjoy the s#$_ show!!

[Hadji Ramjet]

Originally Posted by cschache

More and more evidence coming out it was being developed as a bioweapon.

None of that is evidence: it's all rumour, speculation, conjecture & fear mongering.

[cschache]

Originally Posted by Hadji Ramjet

None of that is evidence: it's all rumour, speculation, conjecture & fear mongering.

You could be right, the CCP is a model government with no human rights violations, yea ok

https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinas...d_3240935.html

https://twitter.com/i/status/1229619047932796929

https://dcdirtylaundry.com/u-s-milit...irus-pandemic/

[LOWA]

Originally Posted by javlin101

Me thinks I will have to re-think my business trip to China this spring.

Yup

[bdub]

Interesting read from put out by the VP and Economist of the St Louis Federal Reserve Bank in 2007.

Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic
Implications for a Modern-day Pandemic

https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/f...flu_report.pdf

[bloopbloob]

I know not everyone is a fan of these. Oh well.

[buckbrush]

I appreciate the effort, as always Bloop.

I'm still watching this. I'm interested on what happen with the Diamond Princess. The lack of mortality (so far) is a great sign IMO (unless deaths are being withheld to avoid mass panic on the ship).

I feel horrible for anyone stuck on that ship. Couldn't imagine.

[Zip]

Thanks again bloop, I appreciate your time and energy in getting this kind of info to us all.. or maybe I should say for those of us who want to see these...
Thanks a bunch
Zip

[2 Tollers]

Thanks on the charts.

MedCram has two new segments up.

#19 Vaccines under review --- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HK9QEy1KJ8

#20 Misinformation Spread, Infection Severity, Cruise Ship, Origins --- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ka48UZDDzLY

[Sooner]

[QUOTE=Sooner;4107330]My daughter just told me at lunch that one of her best friends grand parents are on that quarantined cruise ship.



Just heard from my daughter, both of her friends GP now have the virus and are in Japan getting treatment. Felt fine for a long time during the quarantine, then gramps got a fever, now both have it.

[fishnguy]

^ That sucks, man. Hope they recover and quickly.

Originally Posted by fishnguy

The ship is up to 355 cases now.

The latest I saw was 542 people now on the ship. About 15% of the ship’s population?

[The Elkster]

We're going to start feeling the financial effects before we feel the full force of the virus itself. Lots of supply chain and manufacturing people are reporting that there is going to be shortages across the board and its going to happen within a very short period of time because no company keeps a stockpile these days. Aside from all the made in China products we rely on many things not made in China still rely on Chinese made base materials and parts. Also many items marked as Made in XXX are mainly made in China and finished assembly is done in another country to avoid the made in China stamp. One guy mentioned made in USA welding wire...turns out the wire is made in China and only spooled in the USofA. Within a month or two we are likely to see large scale shut down of manufacturing that involves Chinese parts and supplies. We'll also start seeing empty shelves at various stores. There is no way to quickly shift 1.4 billions peoples worth of productivity. Any demand shift by big companies swinging their weight to other countries will also likely displace product for a lot of medium and small size businesses.

Logistics companies are in trouble. One anecdote mentioned a ship travelling from China to Europe with a 10% load. Most Chinese ports are effectively closed with lack of product and lack of truckers to supply ports. Air freight costs are skyrocketing and inflation is starting to creep in with the shortages. Even if the China paralysis only continues another month or two the knock on effects are going to be huge. If this virus continues and spreads to other countries the effects could be financially and systemically catastrophic.

I would also point out that money injections will do little as this is a physical supply problem not some financial hokey pokey. This is also completely different that a standard recession which is caused by demand problems and whose effects can be moderated with loosened financial rules (AKA allowing more easy loans and lower taxes etc). Companies today are typically heavily leveraged due to cheap interest rates and are not in a position to weather a prolonged period of empty shelves. Companies are not going to keep people employed if they don't have parts and supplies products to build and sell. The ramifications of China's shut down are pretty staggering and this virus has hardly gotten going.

[Mr Flyguy]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

I know not everyone is a fan of these. Oh well.

Wow, very informative presentation of the data.

You must have a lot of time on your hands, I'll stick to watching the curling!

[Justfishin73]

Thanks Bloopbloob

Another Costco run couldn't hurt.......

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by Mr Flyguy

Wow, very informative presentation of the data.

You must have a lot of time on your hands, I'll stick to watching the curling!

Oh, I've got even more! Yes... I do have a lot of time on my hands. My workplace of hundreds is basically shut down, and I'm one of the last left.

Enjoy the curling. Ping pong is a good watch as well!

[bdub]

Originally Posted by fishtank

this is lot bigger and its effects are directly hitting the second largest economy, which happen to manufacture a huge portion of the consumer goods of the world . Would not be a bad idea to pile on some preciouse metal as hedge.The market has not taken it seriouly yet wait til the real panic set in...

Golds having a nice move today.

Apple is just one of the companies warning on the fallout of the virus today. A lot more disruption is coming our way as two other huge economies, Germany and Japan are heading into recession mode. They were already sitting on the edge but this is going to push them right over I imagine.


https://www.theguardian.com/business...ermany-wobbles

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by bdub

Golds having a nice move today.

Apple is just one of the companies warning on the fallout of the virus today. A lot more disruption is coming our way as two other huge economies, Germany and Japan are heading into recession mode. They were already sitting on the edge but this is going to push them right over I imagine.


https://www.theguardian.com/business...ermany-wobbles

The economic and social impact of this will be greater than the virus itself. Countries and infrastructure, trading, shipping, travel, etc. are shutting down.

[HalfBreed]

Originally Posted by reddeerguy2015

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus...m_source=share

Incase the tinfoil hat crowd hasn't had enough - this Reddit thread touches on the economy, disrupted supply chains, closed factories, no/low shipping by sea and air and how all our lives are going to change very much so, very quickly, if this thing doesn't get sorted out. And fast.

Stock up on dry goods, water, propane and gasoline folks.

Or.... If nothing else, enjoy the s#$_ show!!

Unless there is something shiny in the night sky growing each evening, this statement is pure fear mongering.

[muirsy]

Originally Posted by HalfBreed

Unless there is something shiny in the night sky growing each evening, this statement is pure fear mongering.

Agreed.

"Reddit, where all of the brightest minds on the planet gather"

I couldn't imagine a life where I allowed my behaviour to be influenced by banter on a reddit thread.

[HalfBreed]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

The economic and social impact of this will be greater than the virus itself. Countries and infrastructure, trading, shipping, travel, etc. are shutting down.

No negativity towards your posts, actually impressed you keep going, kinda like a salmon. I'm wondering if the cold of Canada, coupled with the stopping of some movement isn't a benefit to this nation?

I hope the FN hasn't helped the survival of Canada.

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by HalfBreed

I hope the FN hasn't helped the survival of Canada.

Why would you even say such an ignorant comment? Nothing better to do than pick fights?

[Zip]

Originally Posted by HalfBreed

No negativity towards your posts, actually impressed you keep going, kinda like a salmon. I'm wondering if the cold of Canada, coupled with the stopping of some movement isn't a benefit to this nation?

I hope the FN hasn't helped the survival of Canada.

Yes Why.. why are you poking like that.. what are you looking for?
Zip

[JD848]

Originally Posted by HalfBreed

No negativity towards your posts, actually impressed you keep going, kinda like a salmon. I'm wondering if the cold of Canada, coupled with the stopping of some movement isn't a benefit to this nation?

I hope the FN hasn't helped the survival of Canada.

Dream on , if you guys think this country is going to hit bottom over a bunch of smoked out extortionist , think again Half Breed .



JD

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by The Elkster

We're going to start feeling the financial effects before we feel the full force of the virus itself. Lots of supply chain and manufacturing people are reporting that there is going to be shortages across the board and its going to happen within a very short period of time because no company keeps a stockpile these days. Aside from all the made in China products we rely on many things not made in China still rely on Chinese made base materials and parts. Also many items marked as Made in XXX are mainly made in China and finished assembly is done in another country to avoid the made in China stamp. One guy mentioned made in USA welding wire...turns out the wire is made in China and only spooled in the USofA. Within a month or two we are likely to see large scale shut down of manufacturing that involves Chinese parts and supplies. We'll also start seeing empty shelves at various stores. There is no way to quickly shift 1.4 billions peoples worth of productivity. Any demand shift by big companies swinging their weight to other countries will also likely displace product for a lot of medium and small size businesses.

Logistics companies are in trouble. One anecdote mentioned a ship travelling from China to Europe with a 10% load. Most Chinese ports are effectively closed with lack of product and lack of truckers to supply ports. Air freight costs are skyrocketing and inflation is starting to creep in with the shortages. Even if the China paralysis only continues another month or two the knock on effects are going to be huge. If this virus continues and spreads to other countries the effects could be financially and systemically catastrophic.

I would also point out that money injections will do little as this is a physical supply problem not some financial hokey pokey. This is also completely different that a standard recession which is caused by demand problems and whose effects can be moderated with loosened financial rules (AKA allowing more easy loans and lower taxes etc). Companies today are typically heavily leveraged due to cheap interest rates and are not in a position to weather a prolonged period of empty shelves. Companies are not going to keep people employed if they don't have parts and supplies products to build and sell. The ramifications of China's shut down are pretty staggering and this virus has hardly gotten going.

Totally missed this. You hit the nail on the head. This goes deep into the economy. Well said Sir. Thank you for your detailed post, most don't understand how this ripples across the world.

I convinced our purchaser to order 6 months supply of respiratory filters a couple weeks ago, and a bunch of extra half masks. She did, and I found out today they are out of stock and not able to supply future orders. We got our 6 months worth, but if things don't get better in the mean time, we will be shut down for H&S reasons

[reddeerguy2015]

Originally Posted by HalfBreed

Unless there is something shiny in the night sky growing each evening, this statement is pure fear mongering.

Take it with a grain of salt. It's mostly for entertainment value.... Possibly.

😉😂

[Sundancefisher]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51540981

[buckbrush]

Breaking: Chinese scientists study finds Covid-19 virus to be more contagious than SARS or MURS.

Really? Wonder how they came to that conclusion...

[bloopbloob]

I see Iran has reported it's first two cases. Just happens to be two cases, with two deaths. Wonder what the real numbers might be....

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[buckbrush]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

I see Iran has reported it's first two cases. Just happens to be two cases, with two deaths. Wonder what the real numbers might be....

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I found that strange too. Maybe they are trying a different way of stopping the spread? I also found it suspect how fast India was able to "Cure" their cases..

[Justfishin73]

Originally Posted by buckbrush

I found that strange too. Maybe they are trying a different way of stopping the spread? I also found it suspect how fast India was able to "Cure" their cases..

I think there may be some lead involved in that "cure"