Financial Markets Meltdown

[Trochu]

Originally Posted by Dean2

Shopify is trading this morning at $1350, that is 40% off the high of the past 12 months. Canadian Banks stocks are trading up 40% over the past 12 months. The Canadian Banks pay 3.5 to 4% dividend, most tech stocks pay zero.

To be fair though, if you click on the "5 Year" button, it's up over 2,000% in that time frame and the banks, lets say TD for example, is up 48% in that same time. Given five years vs 12 months, everybody would pick Shopify stock. That being said, I don't actually own any tech stock as I like things I can see and hold in my hands. Maybe that's code for physical value and things I understand.

Originally Posted by Dean2

Do not listen to the bobbing heads on BBN. Most of them touted the line that said the Canadian Banks were uninvestable and all your money should be in teck growth stocks. Do your own research, they have both an agenda to move the markets to benefit their firms, as well as not having any better insight or crystal balls than the average well read civilian.

Good advice for everybody.

[flydude]

Originally Posted by Dean2

Shopify is trading this morning at $1350, that is 40% off the high of the past 12 months. Canadian Banks stocks are trading up 40% over the past 12 months. The Canadian Banks pay 3.5 to 4% dividend, most tech stocks pay zero.

Do not listen to the bobbing heads on BBN. Most of them touted the line that said the Canadian Banks were uninvestable and all your money should be in teck growth stocks. Do your own research, they have both an agenda to move the markets to benefit their firms, as well as not having any better insight or crystal balls than the average well read civilian.

Have you ever come across a summary of how successful the BNN analysts are with their picks? Would be interesting to review.

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by flydude

Have you ever come across a summary of how successful the BNN analysts are with their picks? Would be interesting to review.

The only one I have seen a long term one for is Eric Nuttal, a big oil and gas hound and one of the last major players in the field. You can see his track record by looking at the performance of the fund he manages. If you had invested with his "Legendary funds" over the past ten years you would be WAY underwater. He however has done just fine, collecting 10% management fees annually.

Most of the others you can see their previous picks going back a year but I have never seen one going back over 5 or 10. My favourite is all the guys that keep recommending Manulife because it is so heavily undervalued. They have been saying the same thing for ten years. Still trading at the same price.


Trochu - you are right about Shopify being up a bunch over 5 years, problem is, you would of had to buy it when it made no money, and you would have bought a bunch of others that went tits up over the same 5 years cause you don't know which ones will do great, average or go bust. That is the problem, as you say, of buying start ups and stuff you can't hold in your hands.

[flydude]

Originally Posted by Dean2

Most of the others you can see their previous picks going back a year but I have never seen one going back over 5 or 10.

Yeah, about what I found. May not be good for ratings.

[MooseRiverTrapper]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/ WCS. Trading $66.50.

My opinion…

OPEC can’t afford oil price going to high and creating conditions for US production to ramp up.

So they will wait… and when price goes up enough and companies start talking about spending more they will release more production.

Companies right now are stock piling cash or paying down debt or buying up stock rather than putting cash into new drills.

People banking on $100 oil… Is a big gamble.

My belief is they don’t have any spare production. They are tapped out and under delivering on their current quotas.

[Map Maker]

Originally Posted by Trochu

To be fair though, if you click on the "5 Year" button, it's up over 2,000% in that time frame and the banks, lets say TD for example, is up 48% in that same time. Given five years vs 12 months, everybody would pick Shopify stock. That being said, I don't actually own any tech stock as I like things I can see and hold in my hands. Maybe that's code for physical value and things I understand.



Good advice for everybody.

Td also split in the last 5 years plus I think it’s going to split again.
Banks are marginally criminal on how they conduct business. Same with railroads.
Both should be a foundation in your portfolio.

Stock chase is a good website and you can look up an Bnn talking head.
I like Christine Poole. She’s a buy low sell high person.

Too funny on manulife. That and General Electric. Just bad management.

[Dean2]

Honestly

If I was constructing a portfolio for a 25 year old, you would have to have Tech stocks, some Cryto, Tesla etc in the portfolio. You just lose out on too much growth over the next 50 years if you don't have it. At my age, the dividend stream from the tried and true works just fine. They will still be going strong 50 years from now, but they won't be the large drivers of capital appreciation they were in the past, at least not compared to established tech. Google has 180 billion in cash on its balance sheet, invested at 2% interest it would make more from interest than National Bank does operating a pretty big bank and having to navigate significant risk successfully to earn less.

[Drewski Canuck]

Multi National Oil Cos are doing well these days.

One has to wonder at what point Biden turns his foggy gaze NORTH to look for more supply to the US from Canada.

The Hypocrisy of the US demanding a global "green" revolution, but then demanding that Opec+ and the US Oil Co's increase production for domestic supply, is amazing.

Best thing that ever happened was this cold snap in Ontario and Quebec. Hope they feel the cold and realize what it takes to make their homes and offices warm. With luck BM Trudeau will have to comment on why they are freezing their butts off and how they still need fossil fuels.

Now if Washington DC could get a good cold snap that lasts for a couple of weeks, maybe then Congress could see the point of reducing the environmental groups' influence on Policy, and the farce of CO2 reductions by Europe and North America while Asia keeps on emitting CO2.

Drewski

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by Drewski Canuck

Multi National Oil Cos are doing well these days.

One has to wonder at what point Biden turns his foggy gaze NORTH to look for more supply to the US from Canada.

The Hypocrisy of the US demanding a global "green" revolution, but then demanding that Opec+ and the US Oil Co's increase production for domestic supply, is amazing.

Best thing that ever happened was this cold snap in Ontario and Quebec. Hope they feel the cold and realize what it takes to make their homes and offices warm. With luck BM Trudeau will have to comment on why they are freezing their butts off and how they still need fossil fuels.

Now if Washington DC could get a good cold snap that lasts for a couple of weeks, maybe then Congress could see the point of reducing the environmental groups' influence on Policy, and the farce of CO2 reductions by Europe and North America while Asia keeps on emitting CO2.

Drewski

The truly bad part of all of this, Biden, Canadian and most other politicians already know they are lying their faces off. There is already a huge mountain of evidence that what they are doing doesn't work and isn't going to, at least not the way it is being approached now. They however are not in this to do what is right or sensible, they are in it to get re-elected and to line their own pockets to the max possible.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by Drewski Canuck

Multi National Oil Cos are doing well these days.

One has to wonder at what point Biden turns his foggy gaze NORTH to look for more supply to the US from Canada.

The Hypocrisy of the US demanding a global "green" revolution, but then demanding that Opec+ and the US Oil Co's increase production for domestic supply, is amazing.

Best thing that ever happened was this cold snap in Ontario and Quebec. Hope they feel the cold and realize what it takes to make their homes and offices warm. With luck BM Trudeau will have to comment on why they are freezing their butts off and how they still need fossil fuels.

Now if Washington DC could get a good cold snap that lasts for a couple of weeks, maybe then Congress could see the point of reducing the environmental groups' influence on Policy, and the farce of CO2 reductions by Europe and North America while Asia keeps on emitting CO2.

Drewski

There theory has been around for ever that the US wants to land lock Alberta Oil to maintain a future cushion in North America while producing out everywhere else.

They can’t stop production on US soil. They can road block our oil. It makes sense in the long game. Why bleed down the safest and most reliable production before bleeding down the risky areas of the world that they have far less control over.

For this reason I don’t see Biden looking North any time soon.

Proof is in the behaviour. When he wants more oil… he calls Saudi Arabia… he doesn’t call TRUDEAU.

[MooseRiverTrapper]

Monster day again for these Canadian O&G companies. NVA MEG TVE ARX CVE

[elkrub]

Couple more... BTE OBE TOU

[straight]

Sold almost everything. Come back after correction.

[ward]

Originally Posted by straight

Sold almost everything. Come back after correction.

You are not supposed to announce that until after the correction and things are heading up.

[bdub]

Originally Posted by MooseRiverTrapper

Monster day again for these Canadian O&G companies. NVA MEG TVE ARX CVE

Everyone's wanting to jump on the bandwagon now. Year and a half or two years ago oil and gas was hated and un-investable. This could have alot more room to go yet.

Your right on OPEC/OPEC + and spare capacity. Many members are unable to produce up to their allowable quota.

[straight]

Originally Posted by ward

You are not supposed to announce that until after the correction and things are heading up.

I'm in green area now, and it's been for a while

[bdub]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/ WCS. Trading $66.50.

My opinion…

OPEC can’t afford oil price going to high and creating conditions for US production to ramp up.

So they will wait… and when price goes up enough and companies start talking about spending more they will release more production.

Companies right now are stock piling cash or paying down debt or buying up stock rather than putting cash into new drills.

People banking on $100 oil… Is a big gamble.

IMO US oil production will have a tough time growing much past the 12 million barrel mark. The industry is burning through its DUC inventory, the best acreage in the best basins are already drilled out. Production declines in the US shale basins is steep. They have 500 some rigs going now and production is flat to declining looking out over the coming year even at plus 70$-80$ oil.

The greens agendas of western leaders has pretty much destroyed the normal commodity cycle of higher prices leading to lower prices leading to higher prices. There has been no stomach for capital to increase production of oil anywhere in the world for the last several years. We are going to be in a world of high oil prices for a while. A few years at least, unless we see big demand destruction.

Demand is picking up fast and supply is not keeping pace. Once Omicron sweeps through and ends this pandemic by spring, the next big boost to demand will come from the normalization of air travel. Another 2-3-4 million bbls day or so. We will see how much people want to travel again after being caged up for this long.

CPI reading coming out his AM, expectations for over 7%. But no worries, they expect it to ease by mid year.

[mac1983]

CNQ_2022-01-12_06-23-50.jpg
CNQ 6 month chart

CVE_2022-01-12_06-27-04.jpg
CVE 6 month chart

TOU_2022-01-12_06-29-18.jpg
TOU 6 month chart

ARX_2022-01-12_06-31-11.jpg
ARX 6 month chart

[thenaturalwoodsman]

Ahh yes Oil stocks while others continue to wait for corrections.....I bought as much as I could of CNQ and CVE 22 months ago cheap! Both have been in beast mode and will continue up. The last few months I bought a fairly large position in ATH anybody else have ATH shares?

[mac1983]

https://financialpost.com/commoditie...ors-fall-apart

[sirmike68]

Originally Posted by thenaturalwoodsman

Ahh yes Oil stocks while others continue to wait for corrections.....I bought as much as I could of CNQ and CVE 22 months ago cheap! Both have been in beast mode and will continue up. The last few months I bought a fairly large position in ATH anybody else have ATH shares?

Yes ATH has been a good one for me. Wish I bought more! VET has been even better.

[bdub]

How big was that Tonga volcanic eruption today? Cool the earth for three years big? Could this be bullish for oil?

"the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora, Indonesia, for example, contributed to 1816 being the “year without a summer,” with crop failures and famines across the Northern Hemisphere. In 1991, the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines cooled the climate for around 3 years."


https://eos.org/articles/climate-cha...anic-eruptions

[straight]

I have around 15 cords of firewood stashed around my house. Should be good until it warms up again

[fishnguy]

Heading for a bit of a melt tomorrow, on a tech side:

[bdub]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

Heading for a bit of a melt tomorrow, on a tech side:

The Nasdaq has already take a 8% haircut on the threat of rising yields. There's just a handful of mega cap tech companies propping up the Nasdaq and the majority of the remaining components are already well into correction/crash territory. It's going to continue to get whacked as the FED raises IMO.

[bdub]

This will cheer up a few folks I know. Tourmoline spreading the love for the second time in no time with another special dividend and a raise.

https://www.tourmalineoil.com/investors/news-releases

[MooseRiverTrapper]

Originally Posted by bdub

This will cheer up a few folks I know. Tourmoline spreading the love for the second time in no time with another special dividend and a raise.

https://www.tourmalineoil.com/investors/news-releases

There will be a lot more of that in the sector over the next two quarters.

[flydude]

Originally Posted by bdub

The Nasdaq has already take a 8% haircut on the threat of rising yields. There's just a handful of mega cap tech companies propping up the Nasdaq and the majority of the remaining components are already well into correction/crash territory. It's going to continue to get whacked as the FED raises IMO.

Yep!
NASDAQ: 14,619.59, -274.16 (-1.84%)

[fishtank]

Microsoft just brought activision blizzard for 69 billion . Hello Xbox exclusive titles … console war .

[big zeke]

Good day to not look at the markets, been a rough week. Not sure what is winning (if anything).

I guess it's only a loss if I sell, which I won't.

I think I need a hug
Zeke