Financial Markets Meltdown

[roper1]

Blue chip dividend payers. If the US$ softens(which it won't) buy some US blue chip.

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by TBark

I’ll be in a position in the coming months to max out all unused FTSA’s for the wife and myself.
It’s a pretty good chunk as we have made minimal use of TFSA’s thus far.

Should I buy regular funds or leave as cash with the plan to jump on possible good deals later the yr?
Maybe a some funds some cash?

TBark

Total TFSA lifetime limits are 81,000 each. All capital gains and dividends earned are totally tax free. At 6% dividend like Enbridge, you can earn $4860 a year each in dividends with no tax at all, and you can withdraw that if you want. Like always, my advice is to leg the money in rather than try to time the market. 2/3s of all returns on stocks are the result of the dividend and reinvesting of same.If some good deals come along you can always sell part and switch, better invested and receiving dividends than sitting in cash at .25 of a percent interest.

[bdub]

WTI tagging 100$, Brent 105$, gold up 60+$, agricultural soft commodities/grains up almost 6%. European stock markets off 4 - 6% and NA markets off 2 - 3%. Sad, sad day for the Ukraine. Hopefully some of you were prepared for this "not a buy and hold balanced portfolio type of market." Good luck.

[ward]

Originally Posted by bdub

WTI tagging 100$, Brent 105$, gold up 60+$, agricultural soft commodities/grains up almost 6%. European stock markets off 4 - 6% and NA markets off 2 - 3%. Sad, sad day for the Ukraine. Hopefully some of you were prepared for this "not a buy and hold balanced portfolio type of market." Good luck.

Which post are you quoting ?

[Buckhead]

That is interesting news, but, in general I ignore the daily gyrations of the markets unless I am watching the trends and speculating on a specific stock or stocks.
Someone once said "The market is only an indication of whether someone is prepared to do something stupid."
My investment strategy is based on several time horizons, 1 year, 5 year and 10 year.
If the world economy is going to crash, there is nothing I can do about that, I will be wiped out along with everyone else. Everything else I view as noise and static.
If an investor has a solid plan stick to it and tweak as you go.
Advice was given in this very thread about a year ago that oil would be exceeding $100 and commodity prices would be rising also. This is not anything that hasn't been previously discussed or predicted.

[Dean2]

Quote:
Originally Posted by bdub View Post
WTI tagging 100$, Brent 105$, gold up 60+$, agricultural soft commodities/grains up almost 6%. European stock markets off 4 - 6% and NA markets off 2 - 3%. Sad, sad day for the Ukraine. Hopefully some of you were prepared for this "not a buy and hold balanced portfolio type of market." Good luck.

Originally Posted by ward

Which post are you quoting ?

Pretty much all of Mine

[Map Maker]

Originally Posted by Buckhead

That is interesting news, but, in general I ignore the daily gyrations of the markets unless I am watching the trends and speculating on a specific stock or stocks.
Someone once said "The market is only an indication of whether someone is prepared to do something stupid."
.

This is very true. I can tell a lot what is happening in the world just by direction of stock market.
Doom and gloom this morning but now it’s just a fight between Russia and Ukraine with nato holding ground.

[fishtank]

The market itself in for a correction before the Russian/Ukraine . World government debt and inflation are rampant, it’s easier to have a scapegoat and this war is a perfect . Blamed on Russian and Ukraine for the market dump and inflation

[6MT]

Great buying opportunities today!!!

[bdub]

Originally Posted by ward

Which post are you quoting ?

Originally Posted by Dean2

Pretty much all of Mine

It was just a 4:30 am comment on inflation shock and the effects of rising rates on a typical balanced 60/40 portfolio or a buy and hold, index type of portfolio. Bonds aren’t going to give investors a hedge on their equities. Bonds and most stocks are both heading down. Thats been my opinion since October, subject to change on short notice.

[fishtank]

Market is green with the possibility of delayed rate hike. Dues to the war in Ukraine….

[Cigarguy]

Yeah, anticipation of an upcoming rate hike.

Also the sanctions against Russia was nothing more than a slap on the wrist affecting mostly elite Russian friends of Putin who are 1) not lacking money and 2) have probably been told by Putin that war and sanctions is coming so get out weeks ago.

Russia is still part of SWIFT and Russia's energy sector was purposely left out of sanctions. The West is way to dependent on Russian energy to do anything about it. Markets sees this and rebounded quickly within a day.

This war will end quickly and we will see how much the Ukrainians care about their country by the amount of insurgency. While the body count might be high on both side if there is a real insurgency, by that time the West will have moved on and I doubt will have any affect on the markets.

Right now people are more concern about inflation and energy prices.

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by bdub

It was just a 4:30 am comment on inflation shock and the effects of rising rates on a typical balanced 60/40 portfolio or a buy and hold, index type of portfolio. Bonds aren’t going to give investors a hedge on their equities. Bonds and most stocks are both heading down. Thats been my opinion since October, subject to change on short notice.

No offence taken, there are always many different perspectives on investing. For one however, I have never subscribed to the 60/40 equity, fixed income spit. 50- 60% equity, yes 30-40% real estate yes, but cash and fixed income, max 10%. For the past 20 years returns on Bonds and other fixed income has been pretty darn poor.

Other point I will make, despite all the market machinations, from Jan 1, 2022 to right now, the portfolios are up 3% over all, not counting dividends. The one big change I am making is that I have always run portfolios that were over weight the Canadian Banks running 15 to as much as 30% over the years. With RBC and TD, buy and hold, live through the ups and downs while collecting the dividends, trade CIBC and Scotia. Have made a lot of money in the Canadian Banks over the years. First bought RBC in 1981, have never sold RBC shares, this will be a first. I won't go into all or any the reasons I came to this decision but those positions are being trimmed to under 10%. No idea if my concerns will be born out, and not recommending anyone else do this, just saying what I am doing, like I always do.

[Maxwell78]

Interesting...Today is the two year anniversary to this thread. I feel bad for anyone who panicked and sold to cash when this thread started. Opportunity lost

[roper1]

Originally Posted by Dean2

No offence taken, there are always many different perspectives on investing. For one however, I have never subscribed to the 60/40 equity, fixed income spit. 50- 60% equity, yes 30-40% real estate yes, but cash and fixed income, max 10%. For the past 20 years returns on Bonds and other fixed income has been pretty darn poor.

Other point I will make, despite all the market machinations, from Jan 1, 2022 to right now, the portfolios are up 3% over all, not counting dividends. The one big change I am making is that I have always run portfolios that were over weight the Canadian Banks running 15 to as much as 30% over the years. With RBC and TD, buy and hold, live through the ups and downs while collecting the dividends, trade CIBC and Scotia. Have made a lot of money in the Canadian Banks over the years. First bought RBC in 1981, have never sold RBC shares, this will be a first. I won't go into all or any the reasons I came to this decision but those positions are being trimmed to under 10%. No idea if my concerns will be born out, and not recommending anyone else do this, just saying what I am doing, like I always do.

Appreciate your experienced/expert thoughts as always Dean. I've run heavy stocks, very little bonds for years. Interest rates.

I try to buy the "dog of the Dow" in Canadian banks. Might have been a good time to own CIBC. lol. I try not to chase much else, & try to use dividend money for the top-ups.

Thanks again!

[ward]

Originally Posted by Maxwell78

Interesting...Today is the two year anniversary to this thread. I feel bad for anyone who panicked and sold to cash when this thread started. Opportunity lost

Been quite a run for sure.

[Buckhead]

Originally Posted by Dean2

I won't go into all or any the reasons I came to this decision but those positions are being trimmed to under 10%. No idea if my concerns will be born out, and not recommending anyone else do this, just saying what I am doing, like I always do.

Well I can see at least 2 factors in play;

1. International investors are going to be extremely nervous about holding funds in Canadian banks now that accounts can be frozen or seized without a court order.

2. If the BOC raises interest rates high enough to tackle the inflation issue there are going to be a rash of real estate defaults. Imagine have a 5 year fixed mortgage on a million $$ home at 2.0% then having to renew at 6.0%.

[bdub]

Breakdown of what has and has not been working at the start of the year. US centric but applies to trends in the Canadian market. Breakdown in finer detail in the pdf.

Energy stands out as the sector that has outperformed recently.


S&P 500 Index (-8.0)
Consumer Discretionary (-13.9)
Consumer Staples (-1.7)
Energy (23.4)
Financials (-0.1)
Health Care (-7.3)
Information Technology (-11.5)
Materials (-7.1)
Industrials (-6.5)
Real Estate (-11.6)
Communication Services (-12.9)
Utilities (-6.0)

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/peacockperf.pdf

[bdub]

Originally Posted by Dean2

No offence taken, there are always many different perspectives on investing. For one however, I have never subscribed to the 60/40 equity, fixed income spit. 50- 60% equity, yes 30-40% real estate yes, but cash and fixed income, max 10%. For the past 20 years returns on Bonds and other fixed income has been pretty darn poor.

Other point I will make, despite all the market machinations, from Jan 1, 2022 to right now, the portfolios are up 3% over all, not counting dividends. The one big change I am making is that I have always run portfolios that were over weight the Canadian Banks running 15 to as much as 30% over the years. With RBC and TD, buy and hold, live through the ups and downs while collecting the dividends, trade CIBC and Scotia. Have made a lot of money in the Canadian Banks over the years. First bought RBC in 1981, have never sold RBC shares, this will be a first. I won't go into all or any the reasons I came to this decision but those positions are being trimmed to under 10%. No idea if my concerns will be born out, and not recommending anyone else do this, just saying what I am doing, like I always do.

You bet. Everyone taking a hands on approach has their own style and biases. Canadian banks have been a stellar performer for many years over the long haul. I think I read somewhere that they were one of the few assets that outperformed brk from inception or something like that. Nice to hear different approaches and helps to learn and apply them to your own process.

We have had a great start to the year as well, up between 7.8 and 9.4%, largely due to being overweight oil, ag and gold miners. We’re well diversified across the most other sectors but underweight and completely out of tech and almost completely out of the States. No bonds and between 11- 20% cash depending on the portfolio. I’m getting an itchy trigger finger though watching the US markets correct, but trying to remain patient. It’s all gonna depend on what happens with rates.

This Ukraine deal also adds a huge amount of uncertainty. Don’t really know how to navigate that other than to believe it will add to inflationary pressures. I see prices for oil, nat gas, fertilizer remaining strong despite the best efforts of the States to get them down.

[Buckhead]

Energy has been performing quite well since the latter part of 2020.
That is when I was a buyer - mid 2020 and the early part of 2021.
Now, not so much. Just looking for bargains in other sectors.

[roper1]

Originally Posted by bdub

Breakdown of what has and has not been working at the start of the year. US centric but applies to trends in the Canadian market. Breakdown in finer detail in the pdf.

Energy stands out as the sector that has outperformed recently.


S&P 500 Index (-8.0)
Consumer Discretionary (-13.9)
Consumer Staples (-1.7)
Energy (23.4)
Financials (-0.1)
Health Care (-7.3)
Information Technology (-11.5)
Materials (-7.1)
Industrials (-6.5)
Real Estate (-11.6)
Communication Services (-12.9)
Utilities (-6.0)

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/peacockperf.pdf

Thanks for the help here. Keeps us less informed looking & learning!!

[roper1]

Originally Posted by Buckhead

Well I can see at least 2 factors in play;

1. International investors are going to be extremely nervous about holding funds in Canadian banks now that accounts can be frozen or seized without a court order.

2. If the BOC raises interest rates high enough to tackle the inflation issue there are going to be a rash of real estate defaults. Imagine have a 5 year fixed mortgage on a million $$ home at 2.0% then having to renew at 6.0%.

Thanks, my thoughts also!

[bdub]

The actions of the West with Russia on SWIFT and their central bank are going to be a ginormous deal with unforeseen consequences. Russia is going to have a currency collapse. Financial intermediaries throughout the world are going to feel this. Like blood clots loose in the circulatory system, the world financial system is going to have a stroke over this I bet.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by Buckhead

Well I can see at least 2 factors in play;

1. International investors are going to be extremely nervous about holding funds in Canadian banks now that accounts can be frozen or seized without a court order.

2. If the BOC raises interest rates high enough to tackle the inflation issue there are going to be a rash of real estate defaults. Imagine have a 5 year fixed mortgage on a million $$ home at 2.0% then having to renew at 6.0%.

Anyone on the mortgage edge and likely unable to survive a 2-3% bump in interest rates… and currently aren’t sitting with a 5 year cushion should be quickly shopping around for the best 5 year fixed rate mortgage.

Then go to their institution and ask for them to beat the rate and either switch at no penalty to turn new rate or do a blend and extend option.

Check with the competitors as many will pay penalties and fees to steals mortgages away from another banking institution.

Always in negotiations mention how solid a client you are and that should reflect in the best rate. I’ve consistently gotten 1% off a banks posted rate. Also some banks match any rate so look online for all posted rates and take that in with you.

Sometimes the rate quoted is good for a short period of time so shop around the rate carefully. Drop hints. Carry the quote in your file folder. Open it up but tell them it’s confidential and you can’t show them the company name whose offering the deal… however it should be viewable to an eagle eye keen mortgage specialist at the bank.

Many people make the mistake of thinking… oh no… my mortgage doesn’t come due for another year.

FYI… squeaky wheel gets the grease.

If you have your RRSPs at the bank… don’t be afraid to say the other place is offering an even bigger deal and covering all fees to move over.

Bank branches get in trouble for losing clients.

[Buckhead]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Anyone on the mortgage edge and likely unable to survive a 2-3% bump in interest rates… and currently aren’t sitting with a 5 year cushion should be quickly shopping around for the best 5 year fixed rate mortgage.

Then go to their institution and ask for them to beat the rate and either switch at no penalty to turn new rate or do a blend and extend option.

Check with the competitors as many will pay penalties and fees to steals mortgages away from another banking institution.

Always in negotiations mention how solid a client you are and that should reflect in the best rate. I’ve consistently gotten 1% off a banks posted rate. Also some banks match any rate so look online for all posted rates and take that in with you.

Sometimes the rate quoted is good for a short period of time so shop around the rate carefully. Drop hints. Carry the quote in your file folder. Open it up but tell them it’s confidential and you can’t show them the company name whose offering the deal… however it should be viewable to an eagle eye keen mortgage specialist at the bank.

Many people make the mistake of thinking… oh no… my mortgage doesn’t come due for another year.

FYI… squeaky wheel gets the grease.

If you have your RRSPs at the bank… don’t be afraid to say the other place is offering an even bigger deal and covering all fees to move over.

Bank branches get in trouble for losing clients.

This would be the wise thing to do.
Problem is, the majority of Canadians aren't that wise.
Maybe 20%, if we are lucky.

[MooseRiverTrapper]

Another great day for Canadian oil and gas.

[Cigarguy]

Mortgage free so don't have to worry about such things.

As for RRSPs, been investing directly with AGF, MacKenzie and Trimark for 25+ years.

[Cigarguy]

Originally Posted by MooseRiverTrapper

Another great day for Canadian oil and gas.

Only if we have way of getting it physically to market.

[Dean2]

Thread that was started in 2016, thought some of you may have missed it. Has new posts for last month and that was before Russia moved on the Ukraine. Ties well to what Sundance was saying.

http://www.outdoorsmenforum.ca/showthread.php?t=276465

[MooseRiverTrapper]

Originally Posted by Cigarguy

Only if we have way of getting to physically to market.

Keystone would be nice right now. But there is many ways.