Keystone XL

[jesse34567]

Originally Posted by Grizzly Adams

From a Global news article. A buy American policy could be coming that would leave us out in the cold.

Ford, along with premiers of other non-oil producing provinces, fear that if Biden can cancel Keystone XL, he’ll also bring in “Buy America” policies to help the American economy recover from the pandemic. A “Buy America” policy, which Biden has promised on the campaign trail, could freeze out Canadian steel, aluminum, and manufactured goods — something that would cause widespread harm to the Canadian economy.


Grizz

Buy American which Trump was essentially doing

[Stinky Coyote]

this thing will go through, relax, the guy that looks like he's in power and signing eo's etc.....isn't, hang in there everyone

[flyrodfisher]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

Here is an interesting perspective.

Reuters: Even without Keystone XL, U.S. set for record Canadian oil imports

And main excerpts:

Currently, Canada exports about 3.8 million bpd to the United States, according to U.S. Energy Department data. Analysts expect that to rise to between 4.2 million and 4.4 million bpd over the next few years. Pipeline expansions currently in progress will add more than 950,000 bpd of export capacity for Canadian producers before 2025, according to Rystad Energy.

Canada’s Energy Regulator says there is enough capacity currently to export more than 4 million bpd to the United States.

...

Enbridge Inc’s Line 3 replacement project is in the process of doubling its capacity, which will allow it to deliver about 760,000 bpd of crude from Alberta to Superior, Wisconsin, by the end of this year.

Canada’s government is also expanding the state-owned Trans Mountain line by 590,000 bpd to 890,000 bpd. That line terminates at the Port of Vancouver, where it should be able to deliver barrels via tankers to the United States.

Meanwhile, TC Energy received U.S. approval last year to expand its existing Keystone 590,000-bpd line - located far from the proposed Keystone XL - which would add an additional 170,000 bpd into the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast.

“We will be over-piped assuming the other pipelines go ahead on schedule,” said Wood Mackenzie research director Mark Oberstoetter. “If you add them all up, you can make the argument KXL was not needed.”

...

“While the politics around KXL will continue to reverberate for some time, the reality is that western Canada - for the first time in recent memory - may soon reach a juncture at which it has excess oil export capacity,” Rystad Energy’s vice president for North American shale Thomas Liles said in a note.

A very simplistic, and uniformed article.
Specific pipelines carry specific products to specific locations.
You can't just add up the total overall pipeline capacity and come to the conclusion that we are "over-piped"

[mooseknuckle]

Originally Posted by jesse34567

Buy American which Trump was essentially doing

Difference being Biden will be held as a hero, trump who has been doing this since day 1 is evil.

Looking out for thier own best interests? What a concept, if only our idiot leaders would do the same.

[fishnguy]

Originally Posted by flyrodfisher

A very simplistic, and uniformed article.
Specific pipelines carry specific products to specific locations.
You can't just add up the total overall pipeline capacity and come to the conclusion that we are "over-piped"

I understand that. Can you expand on the type of oil that goes through all of the mentioned pipelines and if the XL was supposed to be different? I would think that the vice-president of Rystad knows as much as anyone else about the subject, but who knows. He is pointing out that we may soon have excess export capacity, while the demand and import from the US side will hit record levels.

[flyrodfisher]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

I understand that. Can you expand on the type of oil that goes through all of the mentioned pipelines and if the XL was supposed to be different? I would think that the vice-president of Rystad knows as much as anyone else about the subject, but who knows. He is pointing out that we may soon have excess export capacity, while the demand and import from the US side will hit record levels.

Enbridge's line 3 replacement is a batched pipeline designed to carry sweets, light synthetics, as well as light and high sours.

Keystone XL was designed take dilbit from Hardisty to Steele city in Nebraska.

Two different animals.
Each pipeline is specifically designed AND licensed to transport the product(s) it carries.

For example, a pipeline designed to carry a heavier specific gravity product requires a different HP and pump station configuration from one that transports a light product such as a condensate.....amongst many many other things.
A pipeline that carries a high vapour pressure product requires much more stringent code design and regulatory requirements.
To make it simple...you can't just simply change the product to another unless (A) your pipeline is designed to carry it...AND (B) you have authorization from the regulator to do so.

To further add to the mix...you are carrying that specific product to a location that needs it.

To simply add up the total pipeline capacity tells me that the author may be good at math...but he does not understand the business.

[EZM]

Originally Posted by flyrodfisher

Enbridge's line 3 replacement is a batched pipeline designed to carry sweets, light synthetics, as well as light and high sours.

Keystone XL was designed take dilbit from Hardisty to Steele city in Nebraska.

Two different animals.
Each pipeline is specifically designed AND licensed to transport the product(s) it carries.

For example, a pipeline designed to carry a heavier specific gravity product requires a different HP and pump station configuration from one that transports a light product such as a condensate.....amongst many many other things.
A pipeline that carries a high vapour pressure product requires much more stringent code design and regulatory requirements.
To make it simple...you can't just simply change the product to another unless (A) your pipeline is designed to carry it...AND (B) you have authorization from the regulator to do so.

To further add to the mix...you are carrying that specific product to a location that needs it.

To simply add up the total pipeline capacity tells me that the author may be good at math...but he does not understand the business.

Great explanation. Agreed.

I wonder if he (the guy that wrote the article) stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night?

[hunterngather]

Just saw a Ford commercial saying they are building battery powered cars in canada and will work towards 100 percent renewable energy across all plants worldwide by 2035...

I said the other day I see signs that the oil industry is on the way out. I got huge **** for saying that.

This is a big message from a huge player in the oil and gas industry.

Adapt or die.

Seeing that commercial made it real for me.

[Crankbait]

Originally Posted by hunterngather

Just saw a Ford commercial saying they are building battery powered cars in canada and will work towards 100 percent renewable energy across all plants worldwide by 2035...

I said the other day I see signs that the oil industry is on the way out. I got huge **** for saying that.

This is a big message from a huge player in the oil and gas industry.

Adapt or die.

Seeing that commercial made it real for me.

the infrastructure to create all the parts at this point in our demand for things requires fossil fuels. Corner this market and you win.

Off subject but sort of on subject,, more a pipeline thingy; you know how the dicaprio crowd and that off spectrum dwarf became the authority on the O&G industry, especially focused on Fort Mac/Alberta? Why aren't that crowd focused on an undersea oil pipeline being laid by Norway?

[fishnguy]

Originally Posted by flyrodfisher

Enbridge's line 3 replacement is a batched pipeline designed to carry sweets, light synthetics, as well as light and high sours.

Keystone XL was designed take dilbit from Hardisty to Steele city in Nebraska.

Two different animals.
Each pipeline is specifically designed AND licensed to transport the product(s) it carries.

For example, a pipeline designed to carry a heavier specific gravity product requires a different HP and pump station configuration from one that transports a light product such as a condensate.....amongst many many other things.
A pipeline that carries a high vapour pressure product requires much more stringent code design and regulatory requirements.
To make it simple...you can't just simply change the product to another unless (A) your pipeline is designed to carry it...AND (B) you have authorization from the regulator to do so.

To further add to the mix...you are carrying that specific product to a location that needs it.

To simply add up the total pipeline capacity tells me that the author may be good at math...but he does not understand the business.

Thanks. I did understand what you are saying previously. Wasn’t sure what type of oil which pipeline can carry. This is “out of my element”.

I am sure the authors could pick bits and pieces to make up an article, but what is one of the Rystad’s VPs talking about in the last paragraph? I highly doubt he does not understand the subject.

Thanks.

[hunterngather]

Originally Posted by Crankbait

the infrastructure to create all the parts at this point in our demand for things requires fossil fuels. Corner this market and you win.

Off subject but sort of on subject,, more a pipeline thingy; you know how the dicaprio crowd and that off spectrum dwarf became the authority on the O&G industry, especially focused on Fort Mac/Alberta? Why aren't that crowd focused on an undersea oil pipeline being laid by Norway?

Dont doubt it

Cant discount a giant like Ford saying where they want to go. Parts are good.

Bet they last longer than a few tanks of gas though?

[Crankbait]

Originally Posted by hunterngather

Dont doubt it

Cant discount a giant like Ford saying where they want to go. Parts are good.

Bet they last longer than a few tanks of gas though?

How do you make the parts,,, I'm not anti renewable but one part needs the other.

[Iron Brew]

https://financialpost.com/pmn/busine...-oil-imports-3

I know reuters was quoted. Here is a Canadian paper source

[Mb-MBR]

Is it safe to say that Alberta knows what is has in oil reserves? Couldn't it be considered as equity if not in the next 5-10 years certainly in the future. Demand for oil will not go away and nice to know Alberta can address the demand when the need arises, which I'm sure it will unless a virus removes a few billion of us off this planet...!

[KGB]

Originally Posted by Crankbait

the infrastructure to create all the parts at this point in our demand for things requires fossil fuels. Corner this market and you win.

Off subject but sort of on subject,, more a pipeline thingy; you know how the dicaprio crowd and that off spectrum dwarf became the authority on the O&G industry, especially focused on Fort Mac/Alberta? Why aren't that crowd focused on an undersea oil pipeline being laid by Norway?

Hey we should let Greta know! She is right around the corner there! Let’s let her off the leash and command to attack!

[hayseed]

Sadly looking down the road to the future, everyone headin to work in electric cars will drive by Leduc # 1 and wonder what the hell is that??

[Crankbait]

Originally Posted by KGB

Hey we should let Greta know! She is right around the corner there! Let’s let her off the leash and command to attack!

That's the dwarf reference in my earlier post... It is interesting that we are told to respect only authorities on loftier subjects such as healthcare and banking and education,, but God forbid one listen to the pros in the oil industry when a creepy dwarf child actor gets to dictate foreign policy on energy.

I'm surprised her parents and her didn't get a golden globe for their performative escapade.

[Crankbait]

Originally Posted by Mb-MBR

Is it safe to say that Alberta knows what is has in oil reserves? Couldn't it be considered as equity if not in the next 5-10 years certainly in the future. Demand for oil will not go away and nice to know Alberta can address the demand when the need arises, which I'm sure it will unless a virus removes a few billion of us off this planet...!

If our oil is sooooo dastardly dirty and all, why didn't Biden stop transmission of electricity from Alberta, much of it derived from co-generation from the icky tar sands?

[Crankbait]

Rystad energy are a consulting firm,,, not saying they don't know the biz, but, they have clients and clients want returns on their consulted investments of which Alberta might not fit into. It's a guess based on what took place in the early 2000's when financial houses and financial advisors on tv/radio/home internet-infancy gave advice that swayed buyers & sellers of stock to work in the favor of brokerage houses and not the true market.. I'd have to find the sec ruling from that time. It was a big deal at the time and coincided with dot coms selling nothing but a hypertext IP address,,, people who made it under the wire on that scam made oooodles.

Companies play the internet no different than how bunk news played trump's base.

I'd prefer read a disection from an NGO on the pipelines value, not a business doing business.

[flyrodfisher]

Originally Posted by Crankbait

Rystad energy are a consulting firm,,, not saying they don't know the biz, but, they have clients and clients want returns on their consulted investments of which Alberta might not fit into. It's a guess based on what took place in the early 2000's when financial houses and financial advisors on tv/radio/home internet-infancy gave advice that swayed buyers & sellers of stock to work in the favor of brokerage houses and not the true market.. I'd have to find the sec ruling from that time. It was a big deal at the time and coincided with dot coms selling nothing but a hypertext IP address,,, people who made it under the wire on that scam made oooodles.

Companies play the internet no different than how bunk news played trump's base.

I'd prefer read a disection from an NGO on the pipelines value, not a business doing business.

Correct!
Rystad is a NORWAY based research firm... they are not a producer.
Take note that their clients include OPEC and shale producers.
Do you think either of them want to see any more Canadian oil enter the US?

[fishnguy]

Originally Posted by Crankbait

I'd prefer read a disection from an NGO on the pipelines value, not a business doing business.

I have done a ****load of reading today and composed a short essay in my head to write here, lol. Then boom, a person with much more knowledge on the subject “put it on paper” late in the day. Oil sands magazine put out an article:

TEN REASONS WHY KEYSTONE XL DOESN'T MATTER SO MUCH ANY MORE

It appears that the authors of the Reuters article weren’t far off. I also disagree about Rystad. It doesn’t matter if it is located in Norway and has clients in shale and OPEC.

[Rvsask]

I also did a lot of reading on this subject, this thread being one of the things that ate my time. I'm curious to see where this thread goes now. Are the experts at Oil Sands Magazine less of an expert than many on here? Are they right or out to lunch?

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

I have done a ****load of reading today and composed a short essay in my head to write here, lol. Then boom, a person with much more knowledge on the subject “put it on paper” late in the day. Oil sands magazine put out an article:

TEN REASONS WHY KEYSTONE XL DOESN'T MATTER SO MUCH ANY MORE

It appears that the authors of the Reuters article weren’t far off. I also disagree about Rystad. It doesn’t matter if it is located in Norway and has clients in shale and OPEC.

Very informative article, thanks for posting it. It's always easier to understand a subject when you have actual numbers.

[Ronaround]

Originally Posted by Bigwoodsman

God I hope you are right!

BW

Keep in mind that Warren Buffet and Berkshire Hathaway run the rails hauling crude between Canada and the now Biden Americka.
Canceling the pipeline allows Ol' Man Warren to continue to get filthy richer.
Another politician payback to his disgusting payoffs for Biden.
Gas has gone up in my area 35 cents a gallon in week from the Steal.
It i believe was a great thing for Canada and the US.
Now you and the US loose jobs and Savings.

[Big Grey Wolf]

I liked the Oilsands Magazine article. They mentioned TMX coming online next year. No frigging way, construction has 'Stopped' dead. Drive to the mountains through Edson. No work, pipe and equipment parked in the snow during prime construction season.

[sns2]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

I have done a ****load of reading today and composed a short essay in my head to write here, lol. Then boom, a person with much more knowledge on the subject “put it on paper” late in the day. Oil sands magazine put out an article:



TEN REASONS WHY KEYSTONE XL DOESN'T MATTER SO MUCH ANY MORE



It appears that the authors of the Reuters article weren’t far off. I also disagree about Rystad. It doesn’t matter if it is located in Norway and has clients in shale and OPEC.

Thank you for posting that article. Very reassuring for those of us who know little about the subject.

On another note, this magnifies the error in Kenney's massive public bet in KXL.



Sent from my SM-A705W using Tapatalk

[hal53]

Originally Posted by sns2

Thank you for posting that article. Very reassuring for those of us who know little about the subject.

On another note, this magnifies the error in Kenney's massive public bet in KXL.



Sent from my SM-A705W using Tapatalk

Do you really think that TC Energy would invest 7 billion$ (cost at the time) if the pipeline wasn't needed and wouldn't be profitable??...of course this dil bitl could be moved on trains....at considerable added expense. Not to mention the train traffic doubling or tripling thru' hundreds of towns enroute

[rem338win]

Originally Posted by HalfBreed

Albertans seem to have some ideas on how to get a truck unstuck, maybe that will help instead of staring down south.

Pretty hard to help when they wont let you anywhere near the truck. The eastern oligarchs hate letting the west contribute politically at all because it makes them look bad. If you dont like my answer, then continue to ignore history and fail.

[1899b]

Driving through Edson last week to do some fishing and I couldn’t believe the amount of iron lined up in Bannister’s yard. Looks like Ritchies yard next door to me during auction.

We have had a lot of customers ramping up their fleets in the last couple
years anticipating good ol Keystone. I fear a lot of them have over extended themselves greatly on what now seems to be a “pipe” dream....

But like mentioned in the above article, Keystone wasn’t and isn’t the only game in town...

[sns2]

Originally Posted by hal53

Do you really think that TC Energy would invest 7 billion$ (cost at the time) if the pipeline wasn't needed and wouldn't be profitable??...of course this dil bitl could be moved on trains....at considerable added expense. Not to mention the train traffic doubling or tripling thru' hundreds of towns enroute

Hal, this is your wheelhouse. Feel free to explain it to us, but not in a soundbyte because those are not really helpful. Many of us who know nothing about the oilpatch would be appreciative. Explanations are always better than rhetorical questions.