Covid 19: Medical / Technical Thread

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

I believe statistically comparing 20% in serious condition with 1% overall dying is different than 10-20% straight up dying. But I could be missing something.

If our current medical expertise had been available to Spanish flu patients in 1919 they would have had a MUCH lower percentage die. Probably similar to what Covid19 is.

[bloopbloob]

At the end of the day, at this point, it's all speculation. Too many untruths, manipulation of numbers, lack of information, lack of testing and reporting. It certainly caught my attention as soon as It hit my radar. I'm a numbers guy, with somewhat of a background in this sort of stuff. All indicators from my experience are that this is just the beginning of some truths, and big numbers coming soon, couple days, maybe 2 weeks. Not worried yet, just very very intrigued watching this unfold, and trying to use my experience to get a fraction of the truth so far. My money is on that this is big, scaled multiple times over in the near future. I also have a lot of time on my hands....

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by ^v^Tinda wolf^v^

I just spoke with a friend in Shanghai I’ve been trying to contact her since this all started. She said the government is telling people to shut their mouths or face punishment. She also says there are people dead on the streets outside hospitals in many cities throughout China. She heard from others that they seen a person cough up what looked to be a big pile of red puke...from their lungs. The last thing she said is the Chinese government could care less about the people as it’s all about the money and their economy crashing. The other thing I find funny is less than four Klms from ground zero lies some kind of bio chemical testing facility....somebody have a bad day perhaps?

The Canadian government is doing a very poor job of handling this situation and I will hold them personally responsible when it hits my home. I’ll be fixing wagons I’ll tell y’all that much.....

Pm sent...

[RandyBoBandy]

I don't have a link BUT I was listening to CHED last week and they mentioned how the Spanish Flu was not from Spain. The only reason the Spanish Flu went crazy is due to WW1...the trenches etc etc exacerbated the whole epidemic

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by RandyBoBandy

I don't have a link BUT I was listening to CHED last week and they mentioned how the Spanish Flu was not from Spain. The only reason the Spanish Flu went crazy is due to WW1...the trenches etc etc exacerbated the whole epidemic

Very likely. They also had poor health care/technological medical advancements like we do now. Only so many doctors and ventilators in the world even today... They also didn't have the extreme ease of mobility, or high population density we have today. The comparisons are not equal, but not out of line either.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by RandyBoBandy

I don't have a link BUT I was listening to CHED last week and they mentioned how the Spanish Flu was not from Spain. The only reason the Spanish Flu went crazy is due to WW1...the trenches etc etc exacerbated the whole epidemic

Even 100 years ago governments kept certain news issues from the population. Spain was neutral in the WW1 and had no censorship so their newspapers could report the truth so people assumed it originated in Spain. In fact the virus H1N1 most likely came from China, just like all the rest of them have.

[^v^Tinda wolf^v^]

The timing of this virus does leave the imagination to wonder how it started as the possibilities are so vast these days. The leader of Iran was just recently threatening a large scale problem for his goon getting snuffed. I doubt it was the chubby little rocket man as he needs someone to hand feed him his extra spicy cricket wings. I’m not sure about the terrorists as there was that video of the guy getting extra friendly with the livestock, maybe it was a mistake

Then there is China, the government is very crooked and they are way over populated With old people. If they did use biowarfare I assume they have an antidote. After reading the Shock doctrine I think it’s entirely possible it was intensional. Shock the masses to make them conform. I think many Chinese people are sick and tired of the government and living in a stubborn communist country.

With all the recent uprising, riots etc It really makes me wonder anyways.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/17/b...ton-china.html

[Zip]

Originally Posted by ^v^Tinda wolf^v^

The timing of this virus does leave the imagination to wonder how it started as the possibilities are so vast these days. The leader of Iran was just recently threatening a large scale problem for his goon getting snuffed. I doubt it was the chubby little rocket man as he needs someone to hand feed him his extra spicy cricket wings. I’m not sure about the terrorists as there was that video of the guy getting extra friendly with the livestock, maybe it was a mistake

Then there is China, the government is very crooked and they are way over populated With old people. If they did use biowarfare I assume they have an antidote. After reading the Shock doctrine I think it’s entirely possible it was intensional. Shock the masses to make them conform. I think many Chinese people are sick and tired of the government and living in a stubborn communist country.

With all the recent uprising, riots etc It really makes me wonder anyways.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/17/b...ton-china.html

I’ll bet this is pretty close to the truth...we have every reason to suspect this.
Zip

[Flight01]

Originally Posted by RandyBoBandy

I don't have a link BUT I was listening to CHED last week and they mentioned how the Spanish Flu was not from Spain. The only reason the Spanish Flu went crazy is due to WW1...the trenches etc etc exacerbated the whole epidemic

Actually , I believe it started in America and traveled overseas. It was dubbed the Spanish Flu as they were neutral at the time and it was their media who started reporting on it... but I could be wrong...

I see it now. Scott is correct

[RandyBoBandy]

Originally Posted by Flight01

Actually , I believe it started in America and traveled overseas. It was dubbed the Spanish Flu as they were neutral at the time and it was their media who started reporting on it... but I could be wrong...

I see it now. Scott is correct

It actually started in CHINA

[KinAlberta]

Originally Posted by RandyBoBandy

It actually started in CHINA

Actually - they don’t know.

China is one theory according to this fairly recent article:
2018:
https://www.history.com/news/why-was...he-spanish-flu

2014:
1918 Flu Pandemic That Killed 50 Million Originated in China, Historians Say
Chinese laborers transported across Canada thought to be source.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/n...cience-health/


Also interesting:

History of 1918 Flu Pandemic | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC

“It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States. Mortality was high in people younger than 5 years old, 20-40 years old, and 65 years and older. The high mortality in healthy people, including those in the 20-40 year age group, was a unique feature of this pandemic.”

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...ic-history.htm

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by KinAlberta

Actually - they don’t know.

China is one theory according to this fairly recent article:
2018:
https://www.history.com/news/why-was...he-spanish-flu

2014:
1918 Flu Pandemic That Killed 50 Million Originated in China, Historians Say
Chinese laborers transported across Canada thought to be source.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/n...cience-health/


Also interesting:

I've already stated my theory on the demographics of the 1918 flu. The young <5, and the old>65 are predispositioned to immunological weakness. What they seem to have consider odd, I don't. In the 20-40yr old demographic, I attribute the higher rates due to the workers, in their prime years, having to get out and provide, leading to greater exposure rates.

[walking buffalo]

Originally Posted by RandyBoBandy

I don't have a link BUT I was listening to CHED last week and they mentioned how the Spanish Flu was not from Spain. The only reason the Spanish Flu went crazy is due to WW1...the trenches etc etc exacerbated the whole epidemic

The USA was an early hotbed for Spanish flu deaths.
The media did very well in convincing the population to not worry, that it was "just the flu".

[bloopbloob]

Not sure how many know the definition of endemic, but quick google will fill you in. This post will probably mean nothing to 99% of people reading it, but oh well. Even if we get over a pandemic, indications are, this may still remain endemic, an established part of standard population, never going away (R= >1.0), not the same as (Ro=>1.0). Like the yearly Influenza A and B. Endemic. Not exponential, not disappearing. Just hover around 1.0. Obviously they are always slightly changing year to year, and we have predictive vaccines for every flu season. We do not have a vaccine for this, and sounds like 12-18 months before we might.

They generally have somewhere around 0.01% mortality/total cases. Not 2%, with indicators of the possibility of being much higher. Standard Influenza A and B are Ro=1.2-1.5 depending on source. Their (R) value is very close to 1, making it endemic. This Coriv-19 has an (R) value (effective reproductive ratio) not (Ro) in my personal models approaching something closer to 2.1. ((Ro), theoretical ratio) I'm predicting is about 3.1-4.2. Nothing near what has been reported yet, but that is how I have taken the trends so far, and used a bit of speculation to extrapolate.


I'd love to talk to someone familiar with biological statistics, and genetics, if there is anyone else on here with a similar background, hiding in the background. Please PM me if you don't want to post public. I find this scary, yet very fascinating. If you know what a 'TATA' box is, we can start from there! maybe STOP it at UAG, UAA, or UGA.... Would love to get some LOCAL educated opinions on this as well. I spend a lot of time researching news and journals, but it's all so new, and mostly unconfirmed.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

I've already stated my theory on the demographics of the 1918 flu. The young <5, and the old>65 are predispositioned to immunological weakness. What they seem to have consider odd, I don't. In the 20-40yr old demographic, I attribute the higher rates due to the workers, in their prime years, having to get out and provide, leading to greater exposure rates.

I've always thought it had more to do with the fact that the group hit hardest was the exact group that was in the trenches. Months or years of horrific conditions, possibly wounded with toxic gas, certainly run down, crowded together, and then transported to every corner of the globe. Kinda sounds like a perfect place to start a pandemic.

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by Scott h

I've always thought it had more to do with the fact that the group hit hardest was the exact group that was in the trenches. Months or years of horrific conditions, possibly wounded with toxic gas, certainly run down, crowded together, and then transported to every corner of the globe. Kinda sounds like a perfect place to start a pandemic.

Basically same idea. War makes even more sense, but they were the demographic either way, out and exposed. Makes sense. Whether 20-40yr old men were out in war in those conditions, or working, it would also explain the spike in the middle of the affected demographic. I'm sure the majority were in war back then though. Good point

[Windsweptcoast]

The US govt is currently trying to prepare for a Coronavirus pandemic. In case of large scale temporary closures of schools and businesses.

[bloopbloob]

Italy has added 29 more and one death
South Korea added 224
IRAN added 10 more and 1 death.

AND THEY'RE OFF! China got a pretty good head start though...

[buckbrush]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

Italy has added 29 more and one death
South Korea added 224
IRAN added 10 more and 1 death.

AND THEY'RE OFF! China got a pretty good head start though...

I’m just glad India has stopped it there....

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by buckbrush

I’m just glad India has stopped it there....

Yes, I agree! India has done a phenomenal job of testing and reporting! All 3 patients (which for a brief period were 5)
are completely recovered! Look at the numbers! Nothing going on there! Don't get why Italy is having an outbreak, they need to follow India's model for disease prevention

[bloopbloob]

Looks like Iran is coming in hot! 10 new cases just added, but now I see 5 more deaths added
Tally is 28 cases, with 9 of them resulting in deaths. Italy is at 55, 2 deaths, but 16 critical/severe.

My question is if this is a sign of true numbers previously hidden, or have mutations started to make this stronger...

[bdub]

Has anyone come across any criteria where WHO determines this to be a global pandemic? Any idea if the WHO or CDC in the US has any criteria or protocol for handling such an event. We haven’t had one for 100 years and I am wondering if governments have any strategies in place to deal with this on a global basis or are we going to kinda just wing it.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

Looks like Iran is coming in hot! 10 new cases just added, but now I see 5 more deaths added
Tally is 28 cases, with 9 of them resulting in deaths. Italy is at 55, 2 deaths, but 16 critical/severe.

My question is if this is a sign of true numbers previously hidden, or have mutations started to make this stronger...

Interesting that they have a 50% mortality rate????? Me thinks they're missing a few infected people......

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by Scott h

If our current medical expertise had been available to Spanish flu patients in 1919 they would have had a MUCH lower percentage die. Probably similar to what Covid19 is.

Then if the Spanish flu today is no where’s near as bad as the 1918’s...that takes a huge scare out of the sails saying yikes...hope this isn’t another Spanish flu.

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

At the end of the day, at this point, it's all speculation. Too many untruths, manipulation of numbers, lack of information, lack of testing and reporting. It certainly caught my attention as soon as It hit my radar. I'm a numbers guy, with somewhat of a background in this sort of stuff. All indicators from my experience are that this is just the beginning of some truths, and big numbers coming soon, couple days, maybe 2 weeks. Not worried yet, just very very intrigued watching this unfold, and trying to use my experience to get a fraction of the truth so far. My money is on that this is big, scaled multiple times over in the near future. I also have a lot of time on my hands....

Agreed. The math could go there and even with a small death rate...the numbers dead could be staggering relative to the world population today. I hope for positive...and since hope is not a strategy I want governments to at least use all the tools in their tool chest. Still, just a single death is so tragic for the family involved.

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by Scott h

Interesting that they have a 50% mortality rate????? Me thinks they're missing a few infected people......

The numbers are out to lunch. Checking again, they disappeared now. Down to 1 added death, total of 5. Maybe they revised the criteria for someone being dead?? These reporting methods are absolute bonkers. I think Italy is the best chance of getting a genuine pulse for this, and it's not looking very good.

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by bdub

Has anyone come across any criteria where WHO determines this to be a global pandemic? Any idea if the WHO or CDC in the US has any criteria or protocol for handling such an event. We haven’t had one for 100 years and I am wondering if governments have any strategies in place to deal with this on a global basis or are we going to kinda just wing it.

http://https://ca.yahoo.com/news/only-three-u-states-test-174702344.html

They are getting ready for it in the US. Canada will just open its borders to refugees, provide shelter and healthcare, and hugs from a Turd. Scary that only 3 States in the US are equipped to currently diagnose! I have no idea what China is up to, but for the most part, I'm quite impressed. Also think a lot of smoke and mirrors, but still impressive at such a large scale.

[fishtank]

korea is at 433..

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by fishtank

korea is at 433..

50% jump in one night. Nation with 527 people per sq. km.
Italy is 206/ sq. km, and look at their initial numbers....

I notice most of the 'common flu' commentators have become increasingly quiet....
It's only a handful of us keeping this discussion alive now. Maybe they fell ill, just haven't been reported...

[traderal]

Originally Posted by bdub

Has anyone come across any criteria where WHO determines this to be a global pandemic? Any idea if the WHO or CDC in the US has any criteria or protocol for handling such an event. We haven’t had one for 100 years and I am wondering if governments have any strategies in place to deal with this on a global basis or are we going to kinda just wing it.

I'm sure the US has preparations underway. Unfortunately the well ingrained swamp just recently ok'd bringing in about 14 positive cases on a plane with other passengers without the Prez's ok.
As far as WHO the only thing they do is collect donations and misuse it. Read recently that the money they were given during Ebola and Sars was squirreled away to investment banks. Now they are asking for another 650 million. I guess if the media repeats it enough people will still believe that WHO cares or is actually capable of doing something useful.

[raab]

Originally Posted by Scott h

Even 100 years ago governments kept certain news issues from the population. Spain was neutral in the WW1 and had no censorship so their newspapers could report the truth so people assumed it originated in Spain. In fact the virus H1N1 most likely came from China, just like all the rest of them have.

It’s my understanding that the Spanish flu started in the mid western US and came to Europe with the US soldiers. The news in the US never mentioned it due to the war.