US Covid19 pandemic blowing up...how bad will it get?

[EZM]

Originally Posted by hogie

Yes, could explain why many of the predictions are so far off. Maybe it will just hit a certain amount of the population and that's it.

There are a few articles coming out, seems like it's not being reported on widely. Maybe not fitting with the end of the world narrative from MSM.

Yes, the further we go along the better data we get. Some of the early predictors were ridiculously understated. I remember when the line was we could loose 20,000 people by the end of the year (in the US). Blew past that like a month later or something.

On the other hand, there are some fear trash rags for sure saying it's the end times - and let's be honest - it's bad down there - but the if we take precautions, as directed by experts and not politicians, we are better off. Many countries who have brought this into control have listened to science, including our own, have shown we can limit the deaths and open up slowly, which is what we are doing.

It's not that bad here if you look at our numbers - 165 deaths in Alberta. Yes that's tragic, but it's tiny compared to what is happening down there.

I'm guessing the US will get real bad, real soon and be forced to shut down but the cat will be out of the bag by then. This is not going to help the economy over the long run. I think that was another perfect example of a poor strategy executed by administration that could cost him the election.

I guess we better stock up on crayons, animal crackers and juice boxes for when Biden gets in office.

[comaderek]

Originally Posted by raab

No, what I'm implying is more a kin to your family member has cancer and so the whole family goes on a hunger strike until the cancer is defeated. The longer the cancer patient lives, the higher the risk of more people dying of hunger. It's not the cancer that kills the people in the family, its the hunger due to the cancer.

In the same way eventually the suicides, and undiagnosed diseases will eclipse the death rate of Covid-19. Thats not taking into account the other long term effects such as broken relationships, failed businesses and economic fallout cause by the whole situation. The best way to reduce the overall death rate is with a controlled opening and allowing the disease to spread at a pace where the medical system can keep up.

I don’t think within the country of Canada we are doing things that kill ourselves. Don’t see how we can pin broken relationships on covid . As for businesses failing and economic fallout yes that happens and our government is trying to not that happen. In the same breath some companies are seeing unprecedented growth during the same time like PPE equipment companies .
Does starting off letting the virus just spread not cause similar concerns as you state. Large amounts of deaths cause mental hardships etc.
Does the act of doing nothing to try to save lives change society forever.
What u state about hunger strike has zero relationship to what I was saying and does not show what is being done. Not only is the government saving people from covid but trying to lessen the economic hardship on others and then spreading the economic recovery across all members of the country . Those that received funding and those that did not.
Do I believe there should be more consideration paid to suicide prevention in general? Yes
I think what we had shown is a united front to try to fight the pandemic which we probably haven’t seen since the world wars . When you look at it it is kind of impressive how we have reacted as a country.
We do see many people more worried their money then saving lives and it kind of makes me sick. Not sure what the ratio is but I think more people in Canada support what was done then those that opposed. I see a ton of the ones that don’t support what we did just vote PC.
We do have an example south of our border of a government more worried about big business than lives. So looks like thank god we didn’t have a PC Trump running our country at this time .

[Smokey]

Originally Posted by EZM

To be quite honest there is a way to stop this virus HOWEVER no country is willing to do it - some have done something very close to this.

New Zealand pretty much did an absolute fantastic job and now they are averaging only one new case per day (and those cases have been traced and control measures will likely soon eradicate the virus) as long as they don't let people into the country (or take strict quarantine and testing measures on those that do enter the country).

Basically, one you have been exposed, in a period of something like 3-5 days of incubation you become infected and in some cases become ill.

If everyone in the country went into quarantine for 10-14 days, and was not allowed to get out until they were tested and confirmed to be negative - they could go about their business.

That aint happening in America - no way - it's all about my rights and freedoms and to heck with and everyone else - why should I do something for anyone else except myself. (that was a bit of tongue and cheek by the way).

either way -

Those that test positive remain quarantine until they resolve and, subsequently, hold for another +7 day test for the virus and infection again.

The total timeline, worst case scenario, might be a month or 6 weeks on average for those that were infected.

This would do it - bit no one seems to want to take these drastic measures.

Load up with food and supplies and lock down for 14 days (all families and no contact). It could be done.

Regarding God versus Science, I won't go there other than to say as I respect your decision to believe and have faith and I am happy you have that in your life, and may that bring you peace.

I have many friends (many of different faiths) and I'm equally happy for them too.

I think many people were willing to do shut down for a month. Look at all the lines at Cosco and Toilet paper being bought.

Now we are seeing a slow increase in numbers, everyone is going to see grandma. I was visiting my dad. He has like 4 co-morbidities and he was shopping like a madman on the weekend with no mask. It was hard to watch, and nothing I could say. He behaved himself since March, but now everyone thinks this is over, it is back to happy happy fun land. I am not a Karen by any metric, but I try to be diligent and use common sense I set aside my Libertarian ideals for the sake of society. I can't get why people can not deal with a little inconvenience. What we have been asked aint much.

I am also preparing my business for another pandemic rush. We were busy in March and April because of what we sell. We are taking a breather till the madness starts all over again. We see daily how people went from diligent to completely slack. We went through half a 5 gallon pail of hand sanitizer in a March, and now no one uses it anymore.

[hogie]

Originally Posted by EZM

Yes, the further we go along the better data we get. Some of the early predictors were ridiculously understated. I remember when the line was we could loose 20,000 people by the end of the year (in the US). Blew past that like a month later or something.

On the other hand, there are some fear trash rags for sure saying it's the end times - and let's be honest - it's bad down there - but the if we take precautions, as directed by experts and not politicians, we are better off. Many countries who have brought this into control have listened to science, including our own, have shown we can limit the deaths and open up slowly, which is what we are doing.

It's not that bad here if you look at our numbers - 165 deaths in Alberta. Yes that's tragic, but it's tiny compared to what is happening down there.

I'm guessing the US will get real bad, real soon and be forced to shut down but the cat will be out of the bag by then. This is not going to help the economy over the long run. I think that was another perfect example of a poor strategy executed by administration that could cost him the election.

I guess we better stock up on crayons, animal crackers and juice boxes for when Biden gets in office.

Alberta numbers are good. Low population density helps. What's interesting is what the prediction of cases early on. Beginning of April government released projections for infections and deaths. A few provinces did as well. They were expecting peak mid may with a best case of around 800,000 infected. Possibly 4000 dead. They revised they number a few weeks later as the numbers were so far off. Ontario had the same issue, what was predicted was very far from outcome, in a good way. Alberta website has the data up still, can view to check.

Not sure that I trust the numbers from the US. Many accounts of incorrect reports. Money is a big factor as Covid positive patients receive more funding. New york as an example had Cuomo sending covid positive senoirs back to nursing homes which drove the death rate up . Had he not did that order the numbers would be lower. Passed hidden legislation to avoid lawsuits as well.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...q1d79D&ampcf=1

[raab]

Originally Posted by comaderek

I don’t think within the country of Canada we are doing things that kill ourselves. Don’t see how we can pin broken relationships on covid . As for businesses failing and economic fallout yes that happens and our government is trying to not that happen. In the same breath some companies are seeing unprecedented growth during the same time like PPE equipment companies .
Does starting off letting the virus just spread not cause similar concerns as you state. Large amounts of deaths cause mental hardships etc.
Does the act of doing nothing to try to save lives change society forever.
What u state about hunger strike has zero relationship to what I was saying and does not show what is being done. Not only is the government saving people from covid but trying to lessen the economic hardship on others and then spreading the economic recovery across all members of the country . Those that received funding and those that did not.
Do I believe there should be more consideration paid to suicide prevention in general? Yes
I think what we had shown is a united front to try to fight the pandemic which we probably haven’t seen since the world wars . When you look at it it is kind of impressive how we have reacted as a country.
We do see many people more worried their money then saving lives and it kind of makes me sick. Not sure what the ratio is but I think more people in Canada support what was done then those that opposed. I see a ton of the ones that don’t support what we did just vote PC.
We do have an example south of our border of a government more worried about big business than lives. So looks like thank god we didn’t have a PC Trump running our country at this time .

If you understood how the government stole from you, you wouldn’t be so supportive. Any cash you had in the bank will be worth half of what it is now in the next few years due to the inflation that’s coming from the massive printing of money. The government printed 400 billion dollars.

And it’s not prioritizing money. It’s prioritizing goods and services. If your supply chain fails, then there will be massive losses. The handouts are reducing the incentive for essential workers to work. And threatening the supply chain as a whole. I would argue that when this thing hit the government used it to give big business an advantage by shutting down the little guys. By opening up your giving the little guys a chance to compete(while following protocols)

As it stands the current monetary system could fail within the next year. They may have done irreparable damage to the economy. We’ll know for sure by this time next summer.

[comaderek]

Originally Posted by raab

If you understood how the government stole from you, you wouldn’t be so supportive. Any cash you had in the bank will be worth half of what it is now in the next few years due to the inflation that’s coming from the massive printing of money. The government printed 400 billion dollars.

And it’s not prioritizing money. It’s prioritizing goods and services. If your supply chain fails, then there will be massive losses. The handouts are reducing the incentive for essential workers to work. And threatening the supply chain as a whole. I would argue that when this thing hit the government used it to give big business an advantage by shutting down the little guys. By opening up your giving the little guys a chance to compete(while following protocols)

As it stands the current monetary system could fail within the next year. They may have done irreparable damage to the economy. We’ll know for sure by this time next summer.

I see so u are the family member when asked to help out financially to support a cancer patient you would be the one saying not me let him die . Ok just making sure where u stand. No one stole from me. I know I will have to pay more down the road to pay for what we did to save lives and try to lessen individual hardships caused by restrictions imposed.
As for supply chain of goods and services I notice goods are still available but services are lessened . But things deemed essential were always allowed.
It appears you are in the short line of people thinking we should have done nothing like Sweden so your money wouldn’t have been touched. I think I read that their economy will suffer the same hardships as here.
Pretty much every country had some form of lockdown to save lives . It appears places like Israel promised money would be sent to the individuals affected by lockdowns but little cash is flowing.
I am sure we could have closed down and not spent money helping those without jobs and any businesses affected by shutdown. Probably could have saved maybe 300 billion dollars but I think that would have been worse. Certainly would not affected me but isn’t it the same economic hardship in the end.
Really it looks like economy was screwed not matter what we did . Well at least we tried to save lives and in Manitoba where I live we seem to be able to open more safely since our cases are low. Kind of back to normal around here but we have learned to social distance, wash hands and use masks to lessen spread .

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by comaderek

Well at least we tried to save lives and in Manitoba where I live we seem to be able to open more safely since our cases are low. Kind of back to normal around here but we have learned to social distance, wash hands and use masks to lessen spread .

Say what? Can you please explain this to me?

[Bergerboy]

Originally Posted by chuck

Say what? Can you please explain this to me?

Have you read his previous posts? Those were unexplainable. Some of them appear like a cat walked across his keyboard.

[Pathfinder76]

Manitoba has a 0.002% better death rate than Alberta. He should be proud. Glad they are operating as normal out there now.

[Talking moose]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[comaderek]

Originally Posted by Bergerboy

Have you read his previous posts? Those were unexplainable. Some of them appear like a cat walked across his keyboard.

We all need to be good at something. I see you like to proof read. Good for you. I think the gist of posts get across to people that have at least one eye, one arm and one a**hole.
I am all for you taking my posts and using your proof reading skills to make them more inline with the Queen’s English and reposting . I think that would be more helpful than your dribble in this last quoted post.
As they say haters going to hate and a negative comment with no context is just a negative comment meant to discredit a poster.
Are you The Donald in disguise?

[comaderek]

Originally Posted by chuck

Manitoba has a 0.002% better death rate than Alberta. He should be proud. Glad they are operating as normal out there now.

Let me explain what I see at home. We locked down to combat a pandemic threat and saw cases higher off the start. We flattened the curve significantly by what we did which has allowed us to open up more safely and it has allowed our phases to be earlier than expected. Our hospitals were not overwhelmed and our senior complexes did not see outbreaks.

Opening up the economy has zero to do with death rate. By chance we could have had a breakout in a senior complex or other place which might have resulted in a huge number of deaths compared to cases but if we flattened the curve after that we still would have opened as we did because we are concentrating on what we needed to attain not false death rate statistics .
Like saying we had 25 deaths of 100 cases off the bat which gives us a death rate of 25% but zero cases after so we shouldn’t open our economy because our death rate is 25% and we are doing a crappy job because our death rate was 25%.
Like I have said before how we are doing should be based on total population and how many cases appear over total population . Every new case increases the risk of death.
I think we have allowed travel to open up too quickly with northern Ontario and western provinces as we just had 6 or 7 new cases imported into the province because of that and especially when Alberta and Saskatchewan cases are now on the rise .

Bergerboy: please proof read and repost.

[raab]

Originally Posted by comaderek

I see so u are the family member when asked to help out financially to support a cancer patient you would be the one saying not me let him die . Ok just making sure where u stand. No one stole from me. I know I will have to pay more down the road to pay for what we did to save lives and try to lessen individual hardships caused by restrictions imposed.
As for supply chain of goods and services I notice goods are still available but services are lessened . But things deemed essential were always allowed.
It appears you are in the short line of people thinking we should have done nothing like Sweden so your money wouldn’t have been touched. I think I read that their economy will suffer the same hardships as here.
Pretty much every country had some form of lockdown to save lives . It appears places like Israel promised money would be sent to the individuals affected by lockdowns but little cash is flowing.
I am sure we could have closed down and not spent money helping those without jobs and any businesses affected by shutdown. Probably could have saved maybe 300 billion dollars but I think that would have been worse. Certainly would not affected me but isn’t it the same economic hardship in the end.
Really it looks like economy was screwed not matter what we did . Well at least we tried to save lives and in Manitoba where I live we seem to be able to open more safely since our cases are low. Kind of back to normal around here but we have learned to social distance, wash hands and use masks to lessen spread .

Where did I say I wasn't fine with the initial shut down?

Also its clear you don't understand how money is made under our current system. Its not about helping anyone out, it about devaluing the dollar. All currencies did the same thing so we haven't felt the effects yet, but inflation is coming. 300B doesn't just disappear. Hopefully we don't see Stagflation. We need to get the economy going as soon as possible, while acting responsibly. Or we could see years, not months of tough times.

And if an essential worker is working, why would he stay working while the government devalues all the money he makes? All to give their big corporate buddies huge handouts while we the people receive measly sums. The handouts are all about making the rich richer, and the poor poorer. The Liberal government just robbed Canadians, especially seniors of about a 1/3 of their retirement fund. O, did I mention seniors received a huge one time 500 payment IIRC. But you can continue to think they're doing a bang up job.

[comaderek]

Originally Posted by raab

Where did I say I wasn't fine with the initial shut down?

Also its clear you don't understand how money is made under our current system. Its not about helping anyone out, it about devaluing the dollar. All currencies did the same thing so we haven't felt the effects yet, but inflation is coming. 300B doesn't just disappear. Hopefully we don't see Stagflation. We need to get the economy going as soon as possible, while acting responsibly. Or we could see years, not months of tough times.

And if an essential worker is working, why would he stay working while the government devalues all the money he makes? All to give their big corporate buddies huge handouts while we the people receive measly sums. The handouts are all about making the rich richer, and the poor poorer. The Liberal government just robbed Canadians, especially seniors of about a 1/3 of their retirement fund. O, did I mention seniors received a huge one time 500 payment IIRC. But you can continue to think they're doing a bang up job.

Ok not following u. So what was the government supposed to do with original shutdown? Not help people and businesses that lost income? We are not all seniors drawing a pension and not working.
To devalue the currency it has to be compared to other currencies right? As u state all currencies are devalued so isn’t kind of a wash. If u look at our dollar vs American dollar isn’t it the same as pre covid. Don’t we get most things from the US. Doesn’t it cost the same to buy something?
Where did seniors loose a third of their retirement fund?

Yes inflation is coming. Have we never went your inflation before ?

We are opening up the economy slowly. Do U think we should open the borders and start allowing travellers into our country to boost the economy?

Nope 300 billion doesn’t disappear it needs to get paid down. I know I will have to contribute to that and know it was done to save lives. What do u don’t understand about that or would do differently?

[pikergolf]

I'll give the pot a gentle stir. It talks a lot about the virus, done by a researcher.
https://www.equedia.com/how-to-inves...ld-be-unbiased

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by pikergolf

I'll give the pot a gentle stir. It talks a lot about the virus, done by a researcher.
https://www.equedia.com/how-to-inves...ld-be-unbiased

Let the bullying begin.

[bessiedog]

Oh Chucks back with a massively ironic statement about bullying.

You gonna answer my questions yet...? Or just insult me more via pm then avoid and dodge again...?


Piker... yup.. lots of human panic and mistakes.... I don’t think we’ll go into lockdown again. Scientific community is just as human as we are... and the media sure loves to sell a story... which leads us to our present situation....
I think we’ll be in a better place in one to two months...

Unless ‘they’ get us.... the liars and fiends that Chucks gonna finger for us.

..... isn’t anyone lil suspicious os an article by an investment firm...?

[horsepower]

Originally Posted by pikergolf

I'll give the pot a gentle stir. It talks a lot about the virus, done by a researcher.
https://www.equedia.com/how-to-inves...ld-be-unbiased

That was an interesting read. Thank you.

I liked the descriptor "viral debris".

For instance, my wife walks into the bathroom, gags uncontrollably, falls to her knees, and crawls out salivating like a dog with a mouthful of quills. Does her surprise test reveal A) I am currently in the bathroom, or B) I am am NOT in the bathroom but she has detected "viral debris"?

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by bessiedog

Oh Chucks back with an ironic statement about bullying.

You gonna answer my questions yet...? Or just insult me more via pm then avoid and dodge again...?


Piker... yup.. lots of human panic and mistakes.... I don’t think we’ll go into lockdown again. Scientific community is just as human as we are... and the media sure loves to sell a story... which leads us to our present situation....
I think we’ll be in a better place in one to two months...

Unless ‘they’ get us.... the liars and fiends that Chucks gonna finger for us.

..... isn’t anyone lil suspicious os an article by an investment firm...?

Are you kidding me? I answered your question. Ironically this article backed those answers I gave. And they are here for all to see.

What would you call a student who belittled someone else by slandering their name? On school grounds? When asked to stop? What is the term you would use for that?

[Big Lou]

Originally Posted by horsepower

That was an interesting read. Thank you.

I liked the descriptor "viral debris".

For instance, my wife walks into the bathroom, gags uncontrollably, falls to her knees, and crawls out salivating like a dog with a mouthful of quills. Does her surprise test reveal A) I am currently in the bathroom, or B) I am am NOT in the bathroom but she has detected "viral debris"?

That was poetry! Thank you for the laugh. I almost feel like I was there.

[ABDUKNUT]

Every single person in Canada is going to be exposed to this eventually; likely, within the next 8 months. There is just no other possible outcome, and to think otherwise or try to manipulate the odds is unrealistic. I’ll be the first to admit that I am more concerned about my 6 year old daughter not being able to go back to school, than I am about 89 year olds dying.

[bessiedog]

Originally Posted by chuck

Are you kidding me? I answered your question. Ironically this article backed those answers I gave. And they are here for all to see.

What would you call a student who belittled someone else by slandering their name? On school grounds? When asked to stop? What is the term you would use for that?

Nope... I was very direct with my question Chuck. You posted a graph .... the thread is there.. it’s plain to see what I asked:

Who are the liars exactly?

What is their motivation..?

You have not done so.

You just avoided the thread and went dark

You LOVE to just sit and do drive by slights at people here....


..... ironic now that you accuse me of being a coward via pm.....

Stand and deliver sir. Is all I ask.

But you won’t.... however you’ve shown yourself now to others and that’ll be good enough for me I guess.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by ABDUKNUT

Every single person in Canada is going to be exposed to this eventually; likely, within the next 8 months. There is just no other possible outcome, and to think otherwise or try to manipulate the odds is unrealistic. I’ll be the first to admit that I am more concerned about my 6 year old daughter not being able to go back to school, than I am about 89 year olds dying.

Canada has only had less than 1% of its population exposed so far. As bad as Spain was, they only had 5% exposed. It seems unlikely that the rest of our population will ever be exposed, or we're in big trouble.

[midgetwaiter]

Originally Posted by pikergolf

I'll give the pot a gentle stir. It talks a lot about the virus, done by a researcher.
https://www.equedia.com/how-to-inves...ld-be-unbiased

So: Sars-Cov-2 isn’t all that new, but merely a seasonal cold virus that mutated and disappears in summer, as all cold viruses do —

So why are they seeing huge infection rate increases in Texas, Florida and Arizona during the month of July?

Also the discounting of the asymptomatic carriers concept is absurd. We don’t have hard proof with this virus but we’ve known it happens with some diseases for 200 years.

[ABDUKNUT]

Originally Posted by Scott h

Canada has only had less than 1% of its population exposed so far. As bad as Spain was, they only had 5% exposed. It seems unlikely that the rest of our population will ever be exposed, or we're in big trouble.

It’s far, far more than 1%. I’m talking real exposure, not tested and confimed, documented cases.

[MountainTi]

Originally Posted by Scott h

Canada has only had less than 1% of its population exposed so far. As bad as Spain was, they only had 5% exposed. It seems unlikely that the rest of our population will ever be exposed, or we're in big trouble.

Hard to know that when only 10% of the population has been tested...and of those tested some could have had it pre or post testing. Thought you had mentioned you were an expert on this issue?

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by ABDUKNUT

It’s far, far more than 1%. I’m talking real exposure, not tested and confimed, documented cases.

Work your way through it.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...483-5/fulltext

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....13.20153148v1

[ABDUKNUT]

Originally Posted by Scott h

Work your way through it.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...483-5/fulltext

Looks like an interesting science project but the data was collected back in April.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by MountainTi

Hard to know that when only 10% of the population has been tested...and of those tested some could have had it pre or post testing. Thought you had mentioned you were an expert on this issue?

Take a look at the papers that I posted. You can see that they are designed to predict the numbers in the total population. I'm curious what you are basing your numbers on?

[ABDUKNUT]

According to worldometer, Spain has tested 12% of its population. So, that leaves about 41 million people that could or could not have been exposed. Given that most people don’t get tested even when symptomatic, that leaves a huge margin for error in the tally of exposures. Given the known R0 of the ‘rona, one can easily extrapolate a rate of exposure or infection much higher than the official 0.006%