opec oil price bets

[79ford]

Hey, soooooo, since opec is meeting thursday night what are the odds on oil prices?

I am betting the price may lolly gag in the thirties like it has been doddling around in the forties recently if opec keeps status quo which is a reasonable assumption considering saudi arabia has added production in the last few months and everyone else over there (iraq in particular) having the pedal to the floor. The russians also have to drilling rigs to the floor drilling record meters and beating post soviet records for oil production every month almost. Iran is just chomping at the bit and looks like sanctions will be gone in january,

Even the united states is getting production up after alittle bit of a dip as they get the cost cutting and productivity rag out. Canada.... well lots ramping up, sunrise husky, horizons, makheses imperial, surmont 2, Brion energy, that offshore stuff over by nfld.

Looks like low oil prices are excellent production incentives and efficiency incentives. Ingenuity and hard work is getting more and more oil out of the ground for less

[dogpound]

OPEC does nothing, not enough pain and bankruptcies yet to justify cutting production. It's coming though...probably at the March meeting they institute lower quota's but all members still overproduce and new Iranian oil will hit the market by then. Oil touches $30/bbl by end of January.

Driving season hits early May and prices are also supported by massive declines in US onshore production (probably under 8.5 million barrels per day) by April 1st
Oil runs to $45 to $50 during the driving season and revisits the low 40's in the fall.

Investment in projects around the world (including OPEC countries) falls off a cliff in 2016 - demand for crude products increases in 2016 over estimates (cause we can't get enough cheap energy and no better stimulus for slowing economies like Japan, China and Europe).

Oil begins to recover (low 50's to low 60's) in late 2016 but most likely Q1 before driving season in 2017.

Setting the stage for shortages in supply in late 2017, prices of crude will be very volatile and probably have runs to the 70's and 80's.

The ramp up for drilling will be very slow and muted due to shortages of equipment and crews. Companies in the USA (accessing high yield debt and burning bold holders in 2015/16) will not find easy money anymore. The USA will have shown its highest crude production numbers in 2015 - never to touch those numbers again (9.50 million barrels per day) for many many years.

Its going to be really ugly in Western Canada in 2016 and won't see a recovery until late 2017 at the earliest. By then our costs will be in line and we will be doing more for less, $55.00/bbl will feel like $75.00

Sowing the seeds for the next run to $100 sometime in 2018/19 from underinvestment and some geo-political event no one is even considering.

Best cure for a low oil price is a low oil price.

That's my prediction.

[Purple Farmer]

Originally Posted by dogpound

OPEC does nothing, not enough pain and bankruptcies yet to justify cutting production. It's coming though...probably at the March meeting they institute lower quota's but all members still overproduce and new Iranian oil will hit the market by then. Oil touches $30/bbl by end of January.

Driving season hits early May and prices are also supported by massive declines in US onshore production (probably under 8.5 million barrels per day) by April 1st
Oil runs to $45 to $50 during the driving season and revisits the low 40's in the fall.

Investment in projects around the world (including OPEC countries) falls off a cliff in 2016 - demand for crude products increases in 2016 over estimates (cause we can't get enough cheap energy and no better stimulus for slowing economies like Japan, China and Europe).

Oil begins to recover (low 50's to low 60's) in late 2016 but most likely Q1 before driving season in 2017.

Setting the stage for shortages in supply in late 2017, prices of crude will be very volatile and probably have runs to the 70's and 80's.

The ramp up for drilling will be very slow and muted due to shortages of equipment and crews. Companies in the USA (accessing high yield debt and burning bold holders in 2015/16) will not find easy money anymore. The USA will have shown its highest crude production numbers in 2015 - never to touch those numbers again (9.50 million barrels per day) for many many years.

Its going to be really ugly in Western Canada in 2016 and won't see a recovery until late 2017 at the earliest. By then our costs will be in line and we will be doing more for less, $55.00/bbl will feel like $75.00

Sowing the seeds for the next run to $100 sometime in 2018/19 from underinvestment and some geo-political event no one is even considering.

Best cure for a low oil price is a low oil price.

That's my prediction.

I was going to post my prediction, but, I see you posted it for me, so x2 pretty much word for word.

[Mistagin]

Originally Posted by Purple Farmer

I was going to post my prediction, but, I see you posted it for me, so x2 pretty much word for word.

Pretty much my thoughts too. The only 'wild card' I can see is a bigger 'flare-up' in Middle East politics and conflict.

[spirit4u]

so isn't it about a 10 year span between oil hitting bottom price and upper level? Historically speaking.

[JustMe]

Originally Posted by dogpound

OPEC does nothing, not enough pain and bankruptcies yet to justify cutting production. It's coming though...probably at the March meeting they institute lower quota's but all members still overproduce and new Iranian oil will hit the market by then. Oil touches $30/bbl by end of January.



Driving season hits early May and prices are also supported by massive declines in US onshore production (probably under 8.5 million barrels per day) by April 1st

Oil runs to $45 to $50 during the driving season and revisits the low 40's in the fall.



Investment in projects around the world (including OPEC countries) falls off a cliff in 2016 - demand for crude products increases in 2016 over estimates (cause we can't get enough cheap energy and no better stimulus for slowing economies like Japan, China and Europe).



Oil begins to recover (low 50's to low 60's) in late 2016 but most likely Q1 before driving season in 2017.



Setting the stage for shortages in supply in late 2017, prices of crude will be very volatile and probably have runs to the 70's and 80's.



The ramp up for drilling will be very slow and muted due to shortages of equipment and crews. Companies in the USA (accessing high yield debt and burning bold holders in 2015/16) will not find easy money anymore. The USA will have shown its highest crude production numbers in 2015 - never to touch those numbers again (9.50 million barrels per day) for many many years.



Its going to be really ugly in Western Canada in 2016 and won't see a recovery until late 2017 at the earliest. By then our costs will be in line and we will be doing more for less, $55.00/bbl will feel like $75.00



Sowing the seeds for the next run to $100 sometime in 2018/19 from underinvestment and some geo-political event no one is even considering.



Best cure for a low oil price is a low oil price.



That's my prediction.

I think we're all basically saying the same thing. ~$50/bbl oil is the new standard for the next few years, barring the wheels falling off somewhere in the world.....

[Weedy1]

$130 a Barrel in 2017 if you believe this guy:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos...barrel-in-2017

[I_forget]

$40 is too low to encourage investment. $50 is realistic a average over the next few years.

[GoFlames]

I've heard from a few that we will begin to see a recovery starting second quarter next year and then have steady increases thereafter.

[JustMe]

Originally Posted by Weedy1

$130 a Barrel in 2017 if you believe this guy:



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos...barrel-in-2017

I'm thinking that might be a bit of wishful thinking on someone's behalf. Everything else seems to be pointing toward somewhere between $50-60 for a while.

[-JR-]

Originally Posted by JustMe

I'm thinking that might be a bit of wishful thinking on someone's behalf. Everything else seems to be pointing toward somewhere between $50-60 for a while.

Till 2020

[dale7637]

Originally Posted by dogpound

OPEC does nothing, not enough pain and bankruptcies yet to justify cutting production. It's coming though...probably at the March meeting they institute lower quota's but all members still overproduce and new Iranian oil will hit the market by then. Oil touches $30/bbl by end of January.

Driving season hits early May and prices are also supported by massive declines in US onshore production (probably under 8.5 million barrels per day) by April 1st
Oil runs to $45 to $50 during the driving season and revisits the low 40's in the fall.

Investment in projects around the world (including OPEC countries) falls off a cliff in 2016 - demand for crude products increases in 2016 over estimates (cause we can't get enough cheap energy and no better stimulus for slowing economies like Japan, China and Europe).

Oil begins to recover (low 50's to low 60's) in late 2016 but most likely Q1 before driving season in 2017.

Setting the stage for shortages in supply in late 2017, prices of crude will be very volatile and probably have runs to the 70's and 80's.

The ramp up for drilling will be very slow and muted due to shortages of equipment and crews. Companies in the USA (accessing high yield debt and burning bold holders in 2015/16) will not find easy money anymore. The USA will have shown its highest crude production numbers in 2015 - never to touch those numbers again (9.50 million barrels per day) for many many years.

Its going to be really ugly in Western Canada in 2016 and won't see a recovery until late 2017 at the earliest. By then our costs will be in line and we will be doing more for less, $55.00/bbl will feel like $75.00

Sowing the seeds for the next run to $100 sometime in 2018/19 from underinvestment and some geo-political event no one is even considering.

Best cure for a low oil price is a low oil price.

That's my prediction.

What he said!

[JustMe]

Originally Posted by -JR-

Till 2020

Seems about right, low oil prices started in 2015 and they predicted 5-6 years of low prices. Then probably $70-80/bbl for a bit. Rough times for a while yet me thinks.

[wheeler_1]

I'm hoping for 60.00bbl by the middle of next year and , no more layoffs or cut backs.

[sikwhiskey]

Originally Posted by 79ford

Hey, soooooo, since opec is meeting thursday night what are the odds on oil prices?

I am betting the price may lolly gag in the thirties like it has been doddling around in the forties recently if opec keeps status quo which is a reasonable assumption considering saudi arabia has added production in the last few months and everyone else over there (iraq in particular) having the pedal to the floor. The russians also have to drilling rigs to the floor drilling record meters and beating post soviet records for oil production every month almost. Iran is just chomping at the bit and looks like sanctions will be gone in january,

Even the united states is getting production up after alittle bit of a dip as they get the cost cutting and productivity rag out. Canada.... well lots ramping up, sunrise husky, horizons, makheses imperial, surmont 2, Brion energy, that offshore stuff over by nfld.

Looks like low oil prices are excellent production incentives and efficiency incentives. Ingenuity and hard work is getting more and more oil out of the ground for less

Saudi Arabia is ISIS, and they want Persia in its entirely back, backed buy the US...... Russia through a cog in the wheels of that plan....
Fuel prices will go up in kanuckistan no matter what, we are nice puppets. Tax will go up too, Meaning profits will be set back and foreign investment will disappear.
Enjoy the decline
PS Whats the average cost of fuel in an oil producing nations nowdays?

PPS Saudi is running out of oil....alot faster than there BS indicates. How many Brls a day compared to predictions 10 years ago? almost -40% despite piles of new wells drilled......Flooding producing zones with ocean water has not been working well for them.

[avb3]

I wonder if there is an impact already of the huge increase in alternative energy sources?

One can argue what one wants, but there's no question that solar and wind power are on the rise at a logarithmic increase. We will always need oil for certain applications, but the demand forward to continue to rise is very questionable.

[Suka]

Originally Posted by avb3

there's no question that solar and wind power are on the rise at a logarithmic increase.

Catch is someone actually has to Pay for that, as they are incapable of paying for themselves for the forseeable future. Which means massive tax increases, massive utility increases and massive debt increases especially since the energy sector cash cow has run dry.

Look at Ontario, or anyplace else in the world that chose that path. Can anyone name someplace that did and is successful? Far as I know most are bankrupt, or soon to be so.

Putting money into actual research for better tech. to make them viable is one thing, chasing rainbows so politicians can sit at the cool kids table is simply stupid.

[79ford]

Originally Posted by avb3

I wonder if there is an impact already of the huge increase in alternative energy sources?

One can argue what one wants, but there's no question that solar and wind power are on the rise at a logarithmic increase. We will always need oil for certain applications, but the demand forward to continue to rise is very questionable.

Maybe opec realized a decade of high oil prices led to much more oil becoming feasible and the technology needed to produce it got developed to a point where it is no longer experimental. During the same time new oil plays and their required technologies were developed renewables have been making major headway as well.

Maybe this is Saudi Arabia and crews attempt to keep their grasp on the energy market, keep another generation heavily dependant on their oil. There is tonnes of oil out there, just not everyone can produce for 40$, in a world of high oil prices opec gets squeezed out of foreign markets as other countries produce more of their own oil.


Opec is kinda doing Canada a favour too, The usa was adding a million barrels of production every year until oil slumped. They were pretty much headed towards energy independence at 100$ oil

[avb3]

Originally Posted by Suka

Catch is someone actually has to Pay for that, as they are incapable of paying for themselves for the forseeable future. Which means massive tax increases, massive utility increases and massive debt increases especially since the energy sector cash cow has run dry.

Look at Ontario, or anyplace else in the world that chose that path. Can anyone name someplace that did and is successful? Far as I know most are bankrupt, or soon to be so.

Putting money into actual research for better tech. to make them viable is one thing, chasing rainbows so politicians can sit at the cool kids table is simply stupid.

Denmark produces so much wind energy it actually exports it.

[avb3]

Originally Posted by Suka

Catch is someone actually has to Pay for that, as they are incapable of paying for themselves for the forseeable future. Which means massive tax increases, massive utility increases and massive debt increases especially since the energy sector cash cow has run dry.

Look at Ontario, or anyplace else in the world that chose that path. Can anyone name someplace that did and is successful? Far as I know most are bankrupt, or soon to be so.

Putting money into actual research for better tech. to make them viable is one thing, chasing rainbows so politicians can sit at the cool kids table is simply stupid.

I'm not saying that both solar and wind, as well as geothermal, have their own issues. What I'm saying is that there is no question that there has been a huge uptake in these installations, and they are significantly contributing to electrical production.

As such, there is an obvious impact on carbon-based Electrical production. That has an impact on prices, & I do not see that reversing.

[Parker Hale]

I just heard from my brother OPEC will be increasing output from 30 million bbls a day to 31.5. Sorry no link.

So my bet is price is going down.

[79ford]

The price will probably slump into the 30's as the glut continues to build, Iran will be pounding another million barrels out pretty quick too so meh. Any sort of raw bitumin extraction without an upgrader or some sort of in house refining is pretty much a waste of time now.

Now if we could find a way to burn more natural gas or something that might be helpfull gas stock piles are at a record and north american production is at a record sooooo yeah, maybe some chemical plants and or power plants that run on gas instead of coal might help.... maybe

[EZM]

Lots of good thoughts here .... unfortunately if anyone could predict oil prices they would be far too rich to be typing on this forum thread with poor peasants like us .... lol.

Fundamentally, and simply, there is more added (new) production capacity (supply ) versus new added demand. Here's why ....

1) The growth of US, Russia and China, ( first, third and fourth largest producers) who have, themselves, doubled production since the last cycle are the major contributors to the low oil prices.

2) YES - Opec still has a HUGE influence as well - but they have not increased output at the same rates (on aggregate) .....

3) Russia, China and all 11 OPEC partners can be very profitable at $ 35 bbl oil. North America cannot.

4) Irans ability to now (soon) sell oil as the sanctions are relaxed will go from producting 3.4 million barrels as day is estimated to be only 50%-60% of their actual capacity !!! Another 2 million barrels a day out of Iran just adds more supply and reduces the demand which drives prices further down.

5) Global GROSS and NET demand has not grown at the same rates as the supply. Demand has grown at a far slower rate compared to all the new production and capacity. That is, in it of itself, the death blow for string oil prices.

I think it will be some period of time before this corrects itself to make the US and Canada happy. Until some, or all of the above statements/conditions change .... we are in for a long ride.

That's my over simplified view.

[roper1]

WTI closed under $40 today. My thoughts are with everyone affected by this....

[beltburner]

Coal will be very quickly replaced by NG and that will put the price of NG way up. Alberta rigs will be punching holes all over looking for more thus helping the energy sector

[79ford]

well we got the 30$ oil part right. I am curious to see how many people will throw in the towel on oil now and how far the price could drop. It almost seemed like a large portion of people were still clinging to the notion opec was going to come to the rescue. In the absence of that does oil drop further than expected since the notion they may cut is completely gone now?

[avb3]

One thing that does drop and low price does is make alternative energy sources less attractive from a economical point of view. That may be part of the Saudi endgame, however, it is a lot like being on the tail end of the buggy whip industry and attempting to slow down the advance of the automobile.

[hal53]

Originally Posted by avb3

One thing that does drop and low price does is make alternative energy sources less attractive from a economical point of view. That may be part of the Saudi endgame, however, it is a lot like being on the tail end of the buggy whip industry and attempting to slow down the advance of the automobile.

Look on the bright side, they say we'll need 28,000+ windmills to replace the coal...maybe we can buy them from all the jurisdictions that are tearing them down because they are useless???

[avb3]

Originally Posted by hal53

Look on the bright side, they say we'll need 28,000+ windmills to replace the coal...maybe we can buy them from all the jurisdictions that are tearing them down because they are useless???

I suspect that won't be from Uruguay.

http://www.sciencealert.com/uruguay-...-than-10-years

[hal53]

Originally Posted by avb3

I suspect that won't be from Uruguay.

http://www.sciencealert.com/uruguay-...-than-10-years

where are you going to put 28,000 windmills?..oh right....Bill 6