Covid 19: Medical / Technical Thread

[fishnguy]

11:00 am Jan 29

11 Wuhan residents traveling back from abroad were found infected with the novel #coronavirus as of 6 am Tuesday: Chinese customs

[sailor]

«A team of scientists in Australia said on Wednesday they have successfully developed a lab-grown version of coronavirus, the first to be recreated outside of China, in a breakthrough that could help combat the global spread of the illness.

The researchers at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity in Melbourne said they would share the sample, which was grown from an infected patient, with the World Health Organization and laboratories around the world»

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/mobile.r.../idUSKBN1ZR2YD

[fishnguy]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

Source? Big numbers for one day, but it's following the exponential trend... When (not if, I think,) this hits India, I say buckle up. It's exponential on a scale I have never seen with human virus transmission, and I think the numbers are very much represented on the low side so far.

Found out that the source was the Ministry of Health of PRC.

[fishnguy]

Went to their Ministry of Health website and found this from December 27, 2019:

Infectious disease situation stable in China: official

A Chinese health official said on Dec 26 China's current infectious disease situation is generally stable despite that the country is in the peak of the flu season.

According to the latest surveillance statistics, some provincial-level regions have already entered the flu season, with influenza virus A subtype H3N2 and B virus lineage Victoria were detected as the main viruses, Wang Bin, an official with the National Health Commission, said at a press conference.

Li Zhongjie, an official with the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said that vaccination is the most effective and economical way to prevent infectious diseases.

In addition, Li stressed the importance of developing good personal hygiene habits to reduce the risk of exposure to viruses.

This kind of makes you appreciate the situation, doesn’t it? Less than a month later, there are millions of people on the lockdown and they are trying to built new hospitals within days due to the lack of beds for the sick. Crazy ****.

[raab]

Looks like it may be spread through direct contact https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001272

[huntinstuff]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bus...s-2020-1%3famp

Well, they dont screw around. Git 'er done

[JareS]

"The Chinese embassy in Canada is advising all Chinese nationals returning from Wuhan to isolate themselves for 14 days at home"

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eJlbYw9xTtk @4:55


Wow........

But the Canadian government isn't even screening passengers arriving on flights from China......

[bloopbloob]

For Zip. I did a predictive model until end of the month. Should see about 7800 cases reported today. We shall see. Hopefully not.

[Zip]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

For Zip, I did a predictive model until end of the month. Should see about 7800 cases reported today. We shall see. Hopefully not.

Thank you for doing this for me.. and others as well!
Your the best
Zip

[Masterchief]

China has 60 million people quarantined, which tells me this is serious, and we may not know the whole truth yet as far as numbers go, so this may be better or worse than what we are statistically seeing now. One thing on my mind is how long can these people survive while being quarantined? How are they going to get their food, medicine, etc? Supply lines are closed and I doubt that people there have much in terms of stockpiled supplies. A couple of weeks of quarantine could add to the death toll.

On another note, I was watching Global news and the Health Minister from BC was saying that the virus is not contagious until the symptoms develop, which is not true from what everyone else is saying... that it can be transmitted for 1 to 14 days before symptoms show up. What a daft comment from someone who is the Health Minister of a a Province

[MrPants]

Originally Posted by Masterchief

China has 60 million people quarantined, which tells me this is serious, and we may not know the whole truth yet as far as numbers go, so this may be better or worse than what we are statistically seeing now. One thing on my mind is how long can these people survive while being quarantined? How are they going to get their food, medicine, etc? Supply lines are closed and I doubt that people there have much in terms of stockpiled supplies. A couple of weeks of quarantine could add to the death toll.

On another note, I was watching Global news and the Health Minister from BC was saying that the virus is not contagious until the symptoms develop, which is not true from what everyone else is saying... that it can be transmitted for 1 to 14 days before symptoms show up. What a daft comment from someone who is the Health Minister of a a Province

I know that we don’t have many cases, but this whole honour system is a tad sketchy. “ Hey, just take 2 weeks off work after you just took a trip, I’m sure you don’t need the money. It would sure be swell if you could help us contain this potential threat.”

In general, even if this doesn’t amount to much, it seems that a lot of countries preparedness is t up to par, they almost seem surprised by it. Hopefully a training tool for the future pandemics, or maybe this is the one. Ultimately I hope Canada will improve upon their response.

[glen moa]

“On another note, I was watching Global news and the Health Minister from BC was saying that the virus is not contagious until the symptoms develop, which is not true from what everyone else is saying... that it can be transmitted for 1 to 14 days before symptoms show up. What a daft comment from someone who is the Health Minister of a a Province”
So a lie to make everyone calm down?
I bet the 60 million under lock down think it’s a big deal.

To Wong Flu, Thanks for Everything! Julie Newmar

[Talking moose]

https://youtu.be/VbA2PRYsakA
Cured?

[enfield303]

Originally Posted by Talking moose

https://youtu.be/VbA2PRYsakA
Cured?

Guaranteed it's propaganda. I call BS

[glen moa]

I guess it’s too expensive to tell the truth.

[sailor]

WHO press conference (Live) about corona virus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mx6F...ature=emb_logo

[muirsy]

Based on the data we should be more concerned with influenza than the coronavirus.

This is one of many articles saying the same thing.

"Risk of influenza is greater than risk of coronavirus, says Alberta’s chief medical officer of health"

https://globalnews.ca/news/6474946/i...rus-ab-health/

It's just funny that many people won't get a flu shot, but will run out and stockpile some surgical masks.

Like someone else mentioned earlier, there's only so many minutes of worrying a person can do per day.

[Zip]

Originally Posted by muirsy

Based on the data we should be more concerned with influenza than the coronavirus.

This is one of many articles saying the same thing.

"Risk of influenza is greater than risk of coronavirus, says Alberta’s chief medical officer of health"

https://globalnews.ca/news/6474946/i...rus-ab-health/

It's just funny that many people won't get a flu shot, but will run out and stockpile some surgical masks.

Like someone else mentioned earlier, there's only so many minutes of worrying a person can do per day.

Let’s hope your info will be correct... and being cautious never really hurt anyone..has it?
Zip

[muirsy]

Originally Posted by Zip

Let’s hope your info will be correct... and being cautious never really hurt anyone..has it?
Zip

It's not my info - just publicly available information from verified/credible sources! Just passing it along as there seems to be a lot of unverified info floating around social media/forums.

[MrPants]

Originally Posted by muirsy

Based on the data we should be more concerned with influenza than the coronavirus.

This is one of many articles saying the same thing.

"Risk of influenza is greater than risk of coronavirus, says Alberta’s chief medical officer of health"

https://globalnews.ca/news/6474946/i...rus-ab-health/

It's just funny that many people won't get a flu shot, but will run out and stockpile some surgical masks.

Like someone else mentioned earlier, there's only so many minutes of worrying a person can do per day.

I don’t believe anyone is really worried or panicking. It’s the possibility if this virus was to go worldwide in large number that it would be worse then the common flu. The fact is that I’d rather take on the 0.1% chance of dying from the flu, then 3% from this new virus. Is this a threat to our everyday life right now, no. Even if it were to go worldwide and keep the same symptoms most people would be fine. But I’ve got small kids and an elderly mom, if I can monitor the situation and be slightly prepared I will. I don’t worry an ounce out of my day, but I like to be informed on many things.

It’s something worth keeping an eye on for sure. I don’t know why some people think that people are overreacting. What is happening in China is pretty messed up, they literally have shut down cities to try and help contain this thing. Even if it amounts to nothing over here, it’s worth discussing.

I’ve got some 3m half masks that I bought for my family, I’ll probably end up using them in the shop before a pandemic but why not have them? I’ve got some blue nitrile gloves as well, good for the shop too.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

For Zip. I did a predictive model until end of the month. Should see about 7800 cases reported today. We shall see. Hopefully not.

So far your graph matches John Hopkins in the bottom left of this link. They update very frequently. Good one for you to compare to.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

[raab]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

For Zip. I did a predictive model until end of the month. Should see about 7800 cases reported today. We shall see. Hopefully not.

I’m expecting closer to 9000, 40 deaths. Hopefully numbers are better today, but guessing it’ll be 2-3 weeks before we see numbers change.

[bloopbloob]

I managed to find some information on daily reported deaths and added it in there. Appears death rate is proving very linear even though cases are exponential. My model shows 7800 cases, 155 deaths should be the update for today.

[Zip]

Originally Posted by muirsy

It's not my info - just publicly available information from verified/credible sources! Just passing it along as there seems to be a lot of unverified info floating around social media/forums.

I knew it wasn’t “your info” maybe I should have made it clearer by saying “let’s hope your info that you have dug up is correct”
Is that better now?
Zip

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

I managed to find some information on daily reported deaths and added it in there. Appears death rate is proving very linear even though cases are exponential. My model shows 7800 cases, 155 deaths should be the update for today.

China says they have 9000 suspected cases and just under 6000 confirmed. Wonder how long till the 9000 are confirmed. Seems to take a few days in Canada.

Read that having cases in Canada meant easier access to love virus for testing and research here.

I then wonder how much mutation is going on in the virus over time and people.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by Zip

Let’s hope your info will be correct... and being cautious never really hurt anyone..has it?
Zip

Global warming “caution” is killing Alberta’s economy and as a result jobs and family.

Caution in the face of hard testable facts. Great and smart. Caution out of blind fear. Can be damaging depending upon the steps taken.

For instance a range of responses...washing one’s own hands more...makes sense.

Stop using transit. Overkill in Calgary.

Stop going to work in Calgary... you have gone insane.

Shot anyone with a fever...ridiculous.

[The Elkster]

The WHO conference just showed how political this is. Basically no talk of the details of risk and just gushing over China. Clearly they are trying to avoid panic which is bad and good. My concern was the Dr at the start saying that 20% of cases appear to be severe. Severe doesn't exactly sound good. A bug that spreads like the normal flu and has 10-20% of cases go severe. That is pretty darn significant and will most definitely be disruptive if it continues spread globally.

[Zip]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Global warming “caution” is killing Alberta’s economy and as a result jobs and family.

Caution in the face of hard testable facts. Great and smart. Caution out of blind fear. Can be damaging depending upon the steps taken.

For instance a range of responses...washing one’s own hands more...makes sense.

Stop using transit. Overkill in Calgary.

Stop going to work in Calgary... you have gone insane.

Shot anyone with a fever...ridiculous.

This response is nothing like I’m thinking.. if that’s your definitions of cautious, I’m afraid we are on different views... just sayin!
Zip

[The Elkster]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Global warming “caution” is killing Alberta’s economy and as a result jobs and family.

Caution in the face of hard testable facts. Great and smart. Caution out of blind fear. Can be damaging depending upon the steps taken.

For instance a range of responses...washing one’s own hands more...makes sense.

Stop using transit. Overkill in Calgary.

Stop going to work in Calgary... you have gone insane.

Shot anyone with a fever...ridiculous.

Good point there. Things can change but certainly one has to scale their caution to the current conditions and not lose their head. But one should be prepared for things to change as this is a fluid situation. There is evidence, as confirmed by WHO and evidenced by China's reaction, that this is worse than a normal flu and there is evidence that it is still spreading.

[The Cook]

Stay home (I live in a tourist town where it's nothing to see 2 buses of chinese tourists pull up to the local safeway and save-on stores) drink rum and ride it out.