Quote:
Originally Posted by Glion
Lol yeah had 6000 cases at peak vs the 800,000 that the models said. Social distancing must be a freakin miracle. Or maybe the models were wayyyyyy out to lunch
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I'm going to lean towards the social distancing on this one. If you look at the time of rapid growth in Alberta starting around when social distancing started to when our curve started to level off, March 14 to May 1, we can see that on March 14 there were 53 cases, on May 1 there were 5491 cases total, for approximately a 100x increase. If we hadn't social distanced and had double the social interaction / opportunity to be infected (I think it's fair to say our interaction decreased by at least 50%), it would have spread at twice the rate. With exponential growth, this would equate to a 100*100=10,000x increase, resulting in approximately 500,000 cases by May 1. It could have gotten very out of control very quickly.