Markets and Commodities

[Justfishin73]

Originally Posted by Trochu

I'm with you there, my big three are KO, TD, and F. Thinking of getting into a grocer, Costco, and utility, Telus or Fortis, but haven't done so yet, and thats it.

Costco has been an awesome ride, re-invest the dividends, love it.

[Trochu]

Originally Posted by Jim Blake

Land and proving up gravel deposits have been the best investment I have made.

Haven't owned any gravel. Like the land route, but man, you've definitely got to pay to play. The one big thing I don't like about land is, unless you sell, it's a terrible investment, around here anyway.

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by ehrgeiz

Granted you may have a great understanding of markets and traditional investments, but not so with Bitcoin. I absolutely know the Bitcoin I’ve purchased is mine and it’s relatively easy to tell. Bitcoin shouldn’t and most likely can’t be regulated. There is no house. There are whales, but the only form of manipulation is through participation.

You assume a great deal about someone u know very little about. I sat on the Bank of Canada Curreny committee when it first started looking into how to regulate Bitcoin, among many other things, in 2006 and I was on that group until 2012 but I am sure you have a far deeper understanding of the ins and outs of Bitcoin. Feel free to carry on putting your cash into play with your perfect understanding of this market.

[Dean2]

To clarify, I checked my notes for the committee. I sat on the Currency committee from 2006 to 2012, the use of blockchain for financial transactions was discussed in 2010 but actual regulation of bitcoin didn't start being discussed until 2011.

[brendon444]

Originally Posted by Jim Blake

Land and proving up gravel deposits have been the best investment I have made.

Interested in hearing more on the gravel route? Have potential gravel deposits on land. Wondering if its worth pursuing.

[bdub]

Originally Posted by KinAlberta

Yeah I think that many doom and gloomers are born pessimists holding gold for an inevitable crisis (a fairly high probability event) and they will inevitably hold it right through all crises thinking that every crisis will only get worse (lower probability event).

I guess the doom sellers make a living selling doom and gloom and equate it with holding gold. Seems kind of silly to be perpetually bearish, while you miss all the time where assets do well, waiting for a crisis. I imagine there are investors that just hold a portion of gold in their portfolios through all conditions. They don't need income producing assets, they just like the comfort of having some gold. That hasn't been a bad move historically from a risk adjusted returns basis, golds level of correlation with other assets is an attractive attribute. In a low interest rate environment gold becomes more attractive as well, it has a high negative correlation with bond yields.

What I think really drives gold prices is the faith or lack of faith in our Central Banks. The last go round, where gold prices rose and then spiked during and after the GFC, came during a period of a debt crises in Europe. I think everyone can remember that. Greece and other Euro members were going to hell due to similar conditions our Governments are putting us in now. A wall of money printing and no concern for the level of debt. A very similar environment, I think it's just a matter of time before we get another crisis at the rate governments are going. I guess we'll see how it plays out.

The trade in bitcoin is the same, it's a play on faith in our CB's. Now Central Banks are all talking about acceptance of digital currencies. How that relates to Bitcoin in the end I don't have a clue. But I think a small speculative position in Bitcoin might not be a bad idea. A small chunk I am willing to watch go to zero without loosing sleep over. I haven't taken the plunge but I think it's interesting.

[urban rednek]

Here is an article from Bloomberg Businessweek that might shake a few long term strategies:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2...forecast-2050/

[Map Maker]

Originally Posted by Trochu

I'm with you there, my big three are KO, TD, and F. Thinking of getting into a grocer, Costco, and utility, Telus or Fortis, but haven't done so yet, and thats it.

Had to go with 5 ( but actually big 10)
TD, Fortis, CP, Sunlife and Cleveland-Cliff (speculative)
Royal Dutch Shell was in there too but moved out.

[Jim Blake]

Originally Posted by brendon444

Interested in hearing more on the gravel route? Have potential gravel deposits on land. Wondering if its worth pursuing.

Depending on the quality and quantity of the gravel deposit makes the decision easy.

You can go a couple different directions. You can canvass local contractors to see if any are interested in testing your deposit and either buying it outright or mine it and you would get a royalty per tonne of gravel hauled from your pit.

There are lots of things to consider if you are going to have them mine it and get the royalty. We had three quarters of gravel sold two outright and kept one undeveloped. We had an engineering firm do the testing and produce a formal report on the quality and quantity of gravel (recoverable). We then had an environmental company that specializes in obtaining permits for resource extraction get the required permits from the Province and County. Anything over 12 acres requires a Provincial Permit and a reclamation deposit. These can take up to two years to obtain and require Public consultation.

I can go on and on but the cheapest way to go is to let a Contractor such as Burnco, Border Paving, your County or local Contractor to do the leg work provided there are sufficient quantity and quality and just collect the royalty.

Lots of notable items in a formal contract to mine to be considered such as reclamation, week control, dust control and on and on. PM me if you have any questions.

[KinAlberta]

Originally Posted by bdub

I guess the doom sellers make a living selling doom and gloom and equate it with holding gold. Seems kind of silly to be perpetually bearish, while you miss all the time where assets do well, waiting for a crisis. I imagine there are investors that just hold a portion of gold in their portfolios through all conditions. They don't need income producing assets, they just like the comfort of having some gold. That hasn't been a bad move historically from a risk adjusted returns basis, golds level of correlation with other assets is an attractive attribute. In a low interest rate environment gold becomes more attractive as well, it has a high negative correlation with bond yields.

What I think really drives gold prices is the faith or lack of faith in our Central Banks. The last go round, where gold prices rose and then spiked during and after the GFC, came during a period of a debt crises in Europe. I think everyone can remember that. Greece and other Euro members were going to hell due to similar conditions our Governments are putting us in now. A wall of money printing and no concern for the level of debt. A very similar environment, I think it's just a matter of time before we get another crisis at the rate governments are going. I guess we'll see how it plays out.

The trade in bitcoin is the same, it's a play on faith in our CB's. Now Central Banks are all talking about acceptance of digital currencies. How that relates to Bitcoin in the end I don't have a clue. But I think a small speculative position in Bitcoin might not be a bad idea. A small chunk I am willing to watch go to zero without loosing sleep over. I haven't taken the plunge but I think it's interesting.

I put a bit of money into companies that have bitcoin interests. I see it more like a lottery ticket spending, not investing.

[CaptainJ]

Originally Posted by Dean2

You assume a great deal about someone u know very little about. I sat on the Bank of Canada Curreny committee when it first started looking into how to regulate Bitcoin, among many other things, in 2006 and I was on that group until 2012 but I am sure you have a far deeper understanding of the ins and outs of Bitcoin. Feel free to carry on putting your cash into play with your perfect understanding of this market.

That might actually make you less qualified to understand bitcoin. Lol. Don’t attack me, I’m joking only.


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[Big Grey Wolf]

Gravel is like land "Location,Location Location" A good gravel deposit, low clay coal content near a major city like Edmonton worth a lot $$$. Gravel in Edmonton sells for around $50/ yard/ton. In foothills gravel sells for $15/ton.
Last, how much overburden/clay needs to be removed to get to the gravel a big cost factor.

[Buckhead]

Originally Posted by urban rednek

Here is an article from Bloomberg Businessweek that might shake a few long term strategies:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2...forecast-2050/

That is quite factual and interesting.

What a lot of people don't realize is that the Cold War never ended. Most people thought that the end came with the fall of the Berlin wall (1989).

The Cold War just moved into the banking system and onto the Net. Western civilization has been under continuous attack for the past 30 years without a lot of people being aware of it.

[KinAlberta]

Markets have jumped up. How does the “Trump effect” compare with the “Biden effect”?

(Any current articles yet ascribing market moves to the latest Presidential election? )

[bdub]

Originally Posted by CaptainJ

Is anyone buying bitcoin yet?


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If you can find the recent Jim Rogers interview by Grant Williams; Jims take on Bitcoins regulatory risk was worth the listen. The entire interview was really good. Very funny guy.

[Trochu]

Anyone looked into Nio, Chinese EV manufacturer?

[Wendigo]

Originally Posted by Trochu

Anyone looked into Nio, Chinese EV manufacturer?

In at 2$ unfortunately sold . Kicking myself now

[Trochu]

Originally Posted by Wendigo

In at 2$ unfortunately sold . Kicking myself now

Can I ask why you sold, just wanted to cash out, saw issues with the company, don't think they'll make it?

[CaptainJ]

What about bitcoin now? Are we still unsure about it? At what price will you be convinced? $30,000 usd? $50,000?


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[KGB]

Originally Posted by CaptainJ

What about bitcoin now? Are we still unsure about it? At what price will you be convinced? $30,000 usd? $50,000?


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I won’t be. Not my cup of tea. Simply don’t trust it. But that’s just me.

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by CaptainJ

What about bitcoin now? Are we still unsure about it? At what price will you be convinced? $30,000 usd? $50,000?


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Never!!!!! For all you fans of crypto currency, u are aware that it has absolutely no intrinsic value. It isn't even as good as Fiat currencies. There is no national economy or anything else that backs its value. Have u guys ever read the "Great Tulip Debacle" For a while you could buy a fancy house with just one Tulip bulb. Gp ahead and buy bitcoin if u want but do it with a full understanding that this is a completely artificial and heavily manipulated construct with no physical value.

[Trochu]

Originally Posted by KGB

I won’t be. Not my cup of tea. Simply don’t trust it. But that’s just me.

Nor will I. If I'm being honest, I don't understand it, don't want to put the effort in to understand it, and am not investing in something I don't understand.

[Jigsalot]

I’m the same. I don’t get Bitcoin and actually it really doesn’t interest me. Been playing the markets again after I got out in the summer and doing good on some green plays. To me Bitcoin is like going to Vegas. Very risky. But blockchain technology is one I’m reading more about and it’s interesting

[KinAlberta]

Bitcoin is interesting but there’s hundreds of other crypto currencies. So its still early tech in my mind. I’d prefer to find something with near free bitcoin exposure and optionality. Arbitrageurs should eventually minimize most of bitcoin volatility.

[CaptainJ]

Originally Posted by Dean2

Never!!!!! For all you fans of crypto currency, u are aware that it has absolutely no intrinsic value. It isn't even as good as Fiat currencies. There is no national economy or anything else that backs its value. Have u guys ever read the "Great Tulip Debacle" For a while you could buy a fancy house with just one Tulip bulb. Gp ahead and buy bitcoin if u want but do it with a full understanding that this is a completely artificial and heavily manipulated construct with no physical value.

Will be happy to bring it up next year. No judgement to anyone who doesn’t buy, truthfully I hope it tanks to $7100, but most likely not going to get there.

I guess the intrinsic value is not in the token itself, but that central bankers are devaluing the purchasing power of the dollar. Obviously you have heard all the bulletpoints before so I won’t bother with it.

I guess one of the things that is really interesting about it, is trying to be creative in thinking of a world that exists in 5 years from now. While China, Europe, Canada, USA are all talking about going to a digital currency. We are entering a digital world, I think most people understand a future with self driving cars, AI, gene editing, but it’s kind of hard for people to wrap their head around something totally digital that has actual value.
Kind of like a “skin” for fortnight the video game. Intrinsically no value at all, not even rare, yet people pay money for this digital asset.

It’s not just intrinsic value with devaluation of the dollars, it’s network effects, safe haven asset, and game theory.

Again, no judgement, I will message again in the forum in 2021 to see if people have changed their opinion on it.


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[Dean2]

Originally Posted by CaptainJ

Will be happy to bring it up next year. No judgement to anyone who doesn’t buy, truthfully I hope it tanks to $7100, but most likely not going to get there.

I guess the intrinsic value is not in the token itself, but that central bankers are devaluing the purchasing power of the dollar. Obviously you have heard all the bulletpoints before so I won’t bother with it.

I guess one of the things that is really interesting about it, is trying to be creative in thinking of a world that exists in 5 years from now. While China, Europe, Canada, USA are all talking about going to a digital currency. We are entering a digital world, I think most people understand a future with self driving cars, AI, gene editing, but it’s kind of hard for people to wrap their head around something totally digital that has actual value.
Kind of like a “skin” for fortnight the video game. Intrinsically no value at all, not even rare, yet people pay money for this digital asset.

It’s not just intrinsic value with devaluation of the dollars, it’s network effects, safe haven asset, and game theory.

Again, no judgement, I will message again in the forum in 2021 to see if people have changed their opinion on it.


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I actually hope I turn out to be wrong and that all the buyers double their money, I never like to see retail investors lose, doesn't help anyone.. Problem is, when a few Whales own such a large chunk of the total Bitcoin small investors have no say or effect on price and any market where a very few people control the entire market is not the investment I am looking for. Same reason I don't buy Chinese stocks, despite some of them having done REAL well. Totally unregulated market, no audit protocols, no SEC and the government can wipe out one or more companies with the stroke of a pen. No shareholder protection of any kind. Look forward to your 2021 update, $19,000 today just for reference.

[KinAlberta]

I never watch this guy but interesting once in a whole he says something interesting.

Cramer calls this stock market 'the most speculative' he's ever seen

CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Tuesday that some of the stock gains in the market are “insane,” with investors recently buying certain names from Tesla to Royal Caribbean seemingly without regard for fundamentals or the state of the coronavirus pandemic and holding onto them.

“Where are the profit-takers” after these dizzying moves higher? the “Mad Money” host asked.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/24/cram...ever-seen.html

Remember the “Trump effect” nonsense? So this would have to be called the Biden effect.


Dow rallies more than 400 points to surpass 30,000 for the first time

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/23/stoc...lose-news.html



Veteran investor Jeremy Grantham discussed the dot-com bubble, green investing, and America's poor handling of the pandemic in a recent interview. Here are the 10 best quotes

https://www.businessinsider.com/inve...ndemic-2020-11

Stock Holders Face Capital Loss And Negative Return Prospects... No Cake And Eat It Too | Seeking Alpha

Summary

GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham recently reaffirmed his assessment that the stock market is in a bubble.

One can own stocks in a bubble and lock in poor prospective returns, or buy them after prices burst and enjoy years of steady returns thereafter.

A lack of price-discipline may look like it's rewarding in the short run, but ultimately it is repaid in years of trying to grow back principal.
...”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/439...ke-and-eat-too

.

[ward]

Originally Posted by KinAlberta

I never watch this guy but interesting once in a whole he says something interesting.




Remember the “Trump effect” nonsense? So this would have to be called the Biden effect.


Dow rallies more than 400 points to surpass 30,000 for the first time

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/23/stoc...lose-news.html



Veteran investor Jeremy Grantham discussed the dot-com bubble, green investing, and America's poor handling of the pandemic in a recent interview. Here are the 10 best quotes

https://www.businessinsider.com/inve...ndemic-2020-11





.

I thought everyone agreed that trying to time the market was a bad idea ? If the market is a bubble now, what is it going to look like when the Covid recovery tsunami hits ?

[Justfishin73]

Sitting in cash---just cant talk myself into getting back into the market other than Costco, insanity out there

[KinAlberta]

Originally Posted by ward

I thought everyone agreed that trying to time the market was a bad idea ? If the market is a bubble now, what is it going to look like when the Covid recovery tsunami hits ?

I can’t predict the future but think that the future is probably but not necessarily going to be a lot like the past. So theoretically one should just keep pumping savings in using a buy and hold strategy. Once in a generation or two though, that hasn’t worked out very well. Most market stats we see here in Canada look at the US equity markets histories.

So I’d say that you know you won’t need the money for say 10-15 years (mid-to-long term horizon) then there should be little worry that returns will be positive. If you are at risk of having to significantly dip into savings in the short-term (3-7-10 years), beyond spending say interest or dividends, then you need to reassess any market exposure you’ve taken.