Covid 19: Medical / Technical Thread

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by buckbrush

I found that strange too. Maybe they are trying a different way of stopping the spread? I also found it suspect how fast India was able to "Cure" their cases..

Well for one day, or part of one day, India jumped from 3 to 5 confirmed cases, and then dropped back to 3. Got my spidey senses a tingling....

[The Elkster]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

Well for one day, or part of one day, India jumped from 3 to 5 confirmed cases, and then dropped back to 3. Got my spidey senses a tingling....

Honestly from what I'm reading we can't trust numbers from any country. There is evidence of non-disclosed cases in the US for example. Not really surprising seeing as panic is the biggest short term risk and there is little benefit to announcing every case.

I predict we'll see a shock in the supply chain starting over the next couple weeks that will start bringing this to the forefront specially with stock markets who have been in lala land up until now. Then we'll likely see a meaningful rise in serious cases at hospital within a month or two and then we are off to the races as its likely to be a steady rise from there even with partial containment measures. Hopefully they'll find a treatment that can blunt the worst of it. At minimum we are in for some tough financial times.

[bdub]

Originally Posted by The Elkster

Honestly from what I'm reading we can't trust numbers from any country. There is evidence of non-disclosed cases in the US for example. Not really surprising seeing as panic is the biggest short term risk and there is little benefit to announcing every case.

I predict we'll see a shock in the supply chain starting over the next couple weeks that will start bringing this to the forefront specially with stock markets who have been in lala land up until now. Then we'll likely see a meaningful rise in serious cases at hospital within a month or two and then we are off to the races as its likely to be a steady rise from there even with partial containment measures. Hopefully they'll find a treatment that can blunt the worst of it. At minimum we are in for some tough financial times.

It pretty crazy how markets are reacting I agree, there is so much stimulus getting pumped in is how I attempt to explain it. It does make me nervous though, to see gold, oil, stocks, bonds all going at the same time, but it does make some sense I think.

[The Elkster]

Originally Posted by bdub

It pretty crazy how markets are reacting I agree, there is so much stimulus getting pumped in is how I attempt to explain it. It does make me nervous though, to see gold, oil, stocks, bonds all going at the same time, but it does make some sense I think.

They can't stimulate their way out of this one as at its heart its a physical supply and productivity problem not a debt problem. Think of the amount of productivity that's been lost from the system already from China sitting at home. Tourism is also going to drop to almost zero in places. Any events that include a lot of people may be kiboshed. Canada relies hugely on China tourism these days. This summer is going to sting for the mountains. This is going to be a mess in many many ways.

[Justfishin73]

Originally Posted by bdub

It pretty crazy how markets are reacting I agree, there is so much stimulus getting pumped in is how I attempt to explain it. It does make me nervous though, to see gold, oil, stocks, bonds all going at the same time, but it does make some sense I think.

No, it does not at all

[buckbrush]

The two people who died in Iran and tested positive for Covid-19 were not known to have left Iran any time recently... That's not good.

[Masterchief]

maybe they got it when JT was over there hugging them and kissing their feet? He does love China

[bdub]

Originally Posted by The Elkster

They can't stimulate their way out of this one as at its heart its a physical supply and productivity problem not a debt problem. Think of the amount of productivity that's been lost from the system already from China sitting at home. Tourism is also going to drop to almost zero in places. Any events that include a lot of people may be kiboshed. Canada relies hugely on China tourism these days. This summer is going to sting for the mountains. This is going to be a mess in many many ways.

Originally Posted by Justfishin73

No, it does not at all

I'm not saying we aren't going to have a day of reckoning at some point in the future, possibly due to this virus, but we are seeing massive amounts of stimulus. China is controlling the narrative making it appear that things are improving. Stock markets and other markets can go through periods where you think they are completely irrational and it can last much longer than a guy expects. Some day you will be right and we will get a panic/severe selloff. It's 100% inevitable and guaranteed to happen but no one knows when or how exactly. Always having some cash handy and holding a decent position in gold plus maintaining a basket of high quality companies and at times some bond exposure is I think a better strategy than going 100% cash or bonds (or anything 100%) I believe. Diversification is the only free ride. And scaling up the defense and offense as the market moves is also important, rebalance. Of course if you are 100% cash and it tanks tomorrow you will be quite a bit ahead of a more balanced approach. Timing it is the big bugger to get right though. This is just my opinion now and my mind may change tomorrow lol.

[bdub]

And just further on China controlling the narrative coming out of the country, here is the piece that led to expulsion of three foreign journalists.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-i...ia-11580773677

And another on Chinese control of the narrative.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/exclus...s_3242454.html

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by bdub

It pretty crazy how markets are reacting I agree, there is so much stimulus getting pumped in is how I attempt to explain it. It does make me nervous though, to see gold, oil, stocks, bonds all going at the same time, but it does make some sense I think.

Is there not a positive to North America if we’re forced to buy local instead of imports to a degree?

[The Elkster]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Is there not a positive to North America if we’re forced to buy local instead of imports to a degree?

Long term i think so. Its the next year or two i’m worried about. After that hopefully we can establish a new and more diversified supply chain. This is certainly already stimulating discussion. Specially about specialty stuff like medical supplies mainly supplied by an adversary.

[glen moa]

Right now it’s like going to war with China and they are the only ones making gun powder.

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by bdub

I'm not saying we aren't going to have a day of reckoning at some point in the future, possibly due to this virus, but we are seeing massive amounts of stimulus. China is controlling the narrative making it appear that things are improving. Stock markets and other markets can go through periods where you think they are completely irrational and it can last much longer than a guy expects. Some day you will be right and we will get a panic/severe selloff. It's 100% inevitable and guaranteed to happen but no one knows when or how exactly. Always having some cash handy and holding a decent position in gold plus maintaining a basket of high quality companies and at times some bond exposure is I think a better strategy than going 100% cash or bonds (or anything 100%) I believe. Diversification is the only free ride. And scaling up the defense and offense as the market moves is also important, rebalance. Of course if you are 100% cash and it tanks tomorrow you will be quite a bit ahead of a more balanced approach. Timing it is the big bugger to get right though. This is just my opinion now and my mind may change tomorrow lol.

I agree with you. I also agree that the faster we get away from doing any business with China the better off we are. On top of being total scam artists, tech thieves and liars, relying on them for critical items of any kind is just stupid.

[fishnguy]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

^ That sucks, man. Hope they recover and quickly.

The latest I saw was 542 people now on the ship. About 15% of the ship’s population?

At least 621 on the ship and 2 dead, both Japanese, both in the 80s, and both with preexisting conditions, as reported by the Japanese media and the guardian.

[buckbrush]

Not confirmed but reports of tens of thousands fleeing Qom in Iran and roads being closed down in preparation for a quarantine.

Like I said, not confirmed. Just a bunch of posts and videos on Twitter.

[ghfalls]

Remember when Chernobyl ended the USSR? Maybe this will be the fall of communism in China? Or Is their system too strong to fall?

Chernobyl started out as something the government thought they could hide. But turned out to be way too big to once it’s effects started to be felt in other countries. Sounds a lot like what’s going on with the Coronavirus.

Time will reveal the truths if there is any funny business going on which I think there is.

[fishnguy]

Chernobyl didn’t end the USSR. China has way too much cash for something so little to end things.

[IR_mike]

Originally Posted by ghfalls

Remember when Chernobyl ended the USSR? Maybe this will be the fall of communism in China? Or Is their system too strong to fall?

Chernobyl started out as something the government thought they could hide. But turned out to be way too big to once it’s effects started to be felt in other countries. Sounds a lot like what’s going on with the Coronavirus.

Time will reveal the truths if there is any funny business going on which I think there is.

Sue the school you attended.

[buckbrush]

Feb 19. China again changing the way cases are confirmed.

This should make the numbers look much better going forward.

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by buckbrush

Feb 19. China again changing the way cases are confirmed.

This should make the numbers look much better going forward.

BEIJING: China said Thursday (Feb 20) it has again changed the method of counting patients with COVID-19 and will now include only those diagnosed by sophisticated laboratory testing.

It is the second time in just eight days that the country has revised its criteria - a move that could muddle statistics and complicate efforts to track the spread of the illness.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news...ected-12455084

Numbers should start looking real good! Well, at least in China!

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

BEIJING: China said Thursday (Feb 20) it has again changed the method of counting patients with COVID-19 and will now include only those diagnosed by sophisticated laboratory testing.

It is the second time in just eight days that the country has revised its criteria - a move that could muddle statistics and complicate efforts to track the spread of the illness.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news...ected-12455084

Numbers should start looking real good!

I get what you are saying but NO ONE believes the Chinese numbers anyhow. They can screw around with how they measure all they like, we will never know what the real story was even if the changes weren't made. Even the information from certain countries for the cases outside China are starting to look suspect.

[pittman]

Just think of the panic if everyone gave as much attention to the flu as they are to covid19.

To put it in context, in the United States last flu season (where data collection actually exists), influenza infected over 35 MILLION Americans, and lead to the death of over 34 000.

That's in the United States alone. Think of what that number might be worldwide.

Remarkable that there are still many people that don't get the flu shot.

It's gunna be a loooong time until covid19 has an impact like that.

[buckbrush]

Originally Posted by pittman

Just think of the panic if everyone gave as much attention to the flu as they are to covid19.

To put it in context, in the United States last flu season (where data collection actually exists), influenza infected over 35 MILLION Americans, and lead to the death of over 34 000.

That's in the United States alone. Think of what that number might be worldwide.

Remarkable that there are still many people that don't get the flu shot.

It's gunna be a loooong time until covid19 has an impact like that.

How many times have you seen hundreds of millions put under quarantine for the flu?

My concern over this is base more around what the governments of the world are DOING and not what they are SAYING.

So, unless you know more than the governments of the world.... It's going to take a looooooong time for you to convince me that this is no big deal.

No one is worried about the current numbers, it's what's to come than I'm thinking about.

I don't think the sky is falling but it's something I'm keeping an eye on.

[Ken07AOVette]

Originally Posted by buckbrush

How many times have you seen hundreds of millions put under quarantine for the flu?

My concern over this is base more around what the governments of the world are DOING and not what they are SAYING.

So, unless you know more than the governments of the world.... It's going to take a looooooong time for you to convince me that this is no big deal.

No one is worried about the current numbers, it's what's to come than I'm thinking about.

I don't think the sky is falling but it's something I'm keeping an eye on.

exactly, or

wait for 11 months to see what the numbers actually are. This thread has been going for 1 month as of today.

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by buckbrush

How many times have you seen hundreds of millions put under quarantine for the flu?

My concern over this is base more around what the governments of the world are DOING and not what they are SAYING.

So, unless you know more than the governments of the world.... It's going to take a looooooong time for you to convince me that this is no big deal.

No one is worried about the current numbers, it's what's to come than I'm thinking about.

I don't think the sky is falling but it's something I'm keeping an eye on.

Clearly you and a few others on this thread DO believe to sky is falling or is about to shortly. We have been waiting for over two months for the fecal matter to truly hit the rotary oscillator. So far not so much, other the the WHO trying hard to use this to solicit 675 million in donations from governments, despite the fact all they do is track and report, they don't actually intervene in any way with quarantines or sick people or even research.

In the last two months a whole host of things from the flu, to cancer and even golf accidents have caused far more deaths than the Coronavirus. The fact China quarantined many millions of people does not convince me that they don't have a whole other agenda to hide under the guise of dealing with the virus. There are a poop ton of things that can kill you on any given day. This really is starting to look like another Y2K scam job or a Chinese social cleansing action. .

[buckbrush]

Originally Posted by Dean2

Clearly you and a few others on this thread DO believe to sky is falling or is about to shortly. We have been waiting for over two months for the fecal matter to truly hit the rotary oscillator. So far not so much, other the the WHO trying hard to use this to solicit 675 million in donations from governments, despite the fact all they do is track and report, they don't actually intervene in any way with quarantines or sick people or even research.

In the last two months a whole host of things from the flu, to cancer and even golf accidents have caused far more deaths than the Coronavirus. The fact China quarantined many millions of people does not convince me that they don't have a whole other agenda to hide under the guise of dealing with the virus. There are a poop ton of things that can kill you on any given day. This really is starting to look like another Y2K scam job or a Chinese social cleansing action. .

You may be right and I hope you are.

I don’t think the sky is falling but if that’s how you feel, that’s fine.

I also don’t think I’m going to die, crash my truck or have my house burn down. Yet I keep all of my insurance paid up.

I’m done trying to justify why I am following this.
If this isn’t something that you think is a concern, stop opening the thread.

[pittman]

Originally Posted by buckbrush

How many times have you seen hundreds of millions put under quarantine for the flu?

My concern over this is base more around what the governments of the world are DOING and not what they are SAYING.

So, unless you know more than the governments of the world.... It's going to take a looooooong time for you to convince me that this is no big deal.

No one is worried about the current numbers, it's what's to come than I'm thinking about.

I don't think the sky is falling but it's something I'm keeping an eye on.

It's a lot of hysteria. The media needs something to talk about, and fear sells. China is a proud country. They may be overreacting given the recent history of virus outbreaks sourced to their soil. They definitely don't want to be ashamed for letting things get out of control.

I don't buy the government cover-up either. The reality is that they really don't know how many people have it or have had it. Given that most people show mild symptoms, the numbers of infected individuals that they are publishing are certainly an underestimation. What we do count well in medicine is deaths - unless you die at home, never see a physician, AND get buried by your family - they will know if you died of COVID-19. In other words, the death rate is likely over reported.

I'd be willing to bet that influenza kills more North Americans this year than COVID-19 does. And there is a vaccine.

Where is the panic?

[AndrewM]

Crematoriums running 24/7, higher than normal SO2 levels and multiple new hospitals being built would suggest it isn’t just a normal flu. Numbers don’t add up as it is such a small fraction of the population. Current infrastructure should have been sufficient.

[muirsy]

Originally Posted by AndrewM

Crematoriums running 24/7, higher than normal SO2 levels and multiple new hospitals being built would suggest it isn’t just a normal flu. Numbers don’t add up as it is such a small fraction of the population. Current infrastructure should have been sufficient.

Provide a link for any of those claims that's not from twitter or reddit.

Because I've read all about those too, yet haven't seen any news network talk about a single one (other than 2 new hospitals). Seems to be noting but conjecture.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by AndrewM

Crematoriums running 24/7, higher than normal SO2 levels and multiple new hospitals being built would suggest it isn’t just a normal flu. Numbers don’t add up as it is such a small fraction of the population. Current infrastructure should have been sufficient.

The theory of SO2 increases being tied into bodies burnt is an Internet sensation. A conspiracy of conspiracy.

So question. A burned pound of coal basically equals a theorized burned human body.

Now in these cities...is there a reason why people would be burning more coal than normal? Could it be theorized that people are isolated to their homes and as such being winter and sitting at home all day may want it warmer? Could that mean more coal is being burnt and causing an increase in SO2?

As for 24/7...strange how China controls so much and yet has allowed people in China to talk about it.

Right now I am 99% certain coal is causing the SO2 spike. My gut says 80% certain they are not going 24/7 and 70% that cremations May be above average use.