Grain Prices

[Jim]

Just going through harvest and looking at prices being offered compared to last year with much surprise. Prices are down big time but I don’t understand, the media and politicians said record droughts and the special military operation were going to cause world shortages of grain. Well I’m no economist but if there is a shortage of something the price goes up not down.

Just wanted to hear what other guys in the province are finding regarding prices offered for wheat and barley.

[IL Bar]

Typical harvest pressure. They are trying to scare us to sell as much as we can for as cheap as they can buy it. They do it every year.

[Trochu]

Bought two more bins, but will run out of room anyway, so had to sell some barley. Price was around $6.25/bushel. Not great.

[B-radshaw]

No one wants to drink Bud Light anymore so how can Barley stay high????

I do a lot of buying and selling of all grain commodities grown in Alberta.

Harvest pressure for one and buyers taking advantage of those that need bin space or cash flow. But also record amounts of corn coming into the feed lots from the south. Most feed lots have switched from barley to corn. Its going to take a couple years of bumper barley crops in North America to get feeders to switch back.

Don't believe what the news tells you. Most of my over seas buyers have said the same thing regarding Russia/Ukraine wheat. The wheat is still moving out the backdoor of Russia and Ukraine via rail lines to other countries shipping ports.

[Drewski Canuck]

Alot of Grain pricing has to do with how much was booked in the spring, how much was delivered, and how much is being asked for.

Big users like flour mills have to book for a set price for the future pricing in the future. Last thing they want is to get pinched with a poor crop and high prices.

That is where the deliveries come in. If contracts are delivered on at a set price, the remaining crop that is available for market really depends on "new" demand which may not exist. That is why the current price may not be so great.

That and Russia may be dumping anything they can into the World market soaking up demand for Canadian Grains.

Now if India or China wants all that we can deliver, there WOULD be a significant price. I wonder if there is Someone who has managed to alienate these big purchasers, you know, like in the Federal Government??

Drewski

[calgarychef]

Originally Posted by IL Bar

Typical harvest pressure. They are trying to scare us to sell as much as we can for as cheap as they can buy it. They do it every year.

Yup

[6.5 shooter]

Originally Posted by Drewski Canuck

Alot of Grain pricing has to do with how much was booked in the spring, how much was delivered, and how much is being asked for.

Big users like flour mills have to book for a set price for the future pricing in the future. Last thing they want is to get pinched with a poor crop and high prices.

That is where the deliveries come in. If contracts are delivered on at a set price, the remaining crop that is available for market really depends on "new" demand which may not exist. That is why the current price may not be so great.

That and Russia may be dumping anything they can into the World market soaking up demand for Canadian Grains.

Now if India or China wants all that we can deliver, there WOULD be a significant price. I wonder if there is Someone who has managed to alienate these big purchasers, you know, like in the Federal Government??

Drewski

Now you know he can just dazzle them with his fancy stocks and boyish good looks.
Then he turns around and taxes grocery stores so that we the working public will get cheaper groceries You just can't make this crap up. Anyone who voted for this clown and his side kick need to hang their heads in shame.

[roper1]

Originally Posted by B-radshaw

No one wants to drink Bud Light anymore so how can Barley stay high????

I do a lot of buying and selling of all grain commodities grown in Alberta.

Harvest pressure for one and buyers taking advantage of those that need bin space or cash flow. But also record amounts of corn coming into the feed lots from the south. Most feed lots have switched from barley to corn. Its going to take a couple years of bumper barley crops in North America to get feeders to switch back.

Don't believe what the news tells you. Most of my over seas buyers have said the same thing regarding Russia/Ukraine wheat. The wheat is still moving out the backdoor of Russia and Ukraine via rail lines to other countries shipping ports.

I can buy this. lol. As well, there might be better coarse grain yields inn Ab & Sask than originally thought. Not bumper yields, but not a complete wreck. Certainly poor to zero yields in places, but plumb decent elsewhere. China just lifted their embargo on Aissie wheat, lots of worldwide cereal crops.

[huntinstuff]

Originally Posted by IL Bar

Typical harvest pressure. They are trying to scare us to sell as much as we can for as cheap as they can buy it. They do it every year.

X2. We call it the annual b.s.
Harvest pressure and gas price increases before long weekend are like clockwork.

You contract, it's one narrative. You fill the bins, it's another.....always a reason...covid, China relations, the fall of the Berlin wall, Venzuela, BSE, Ukraine, Russia...blah blah blah...

My grandfather was a founding member of the Alberta Wheat Pool. Some people absolutely loved him for it, others could have killed him for it.

[1hogfarmer]

Guys hanging onto last years crop hoping for price increase had to dump a lot into market to make room in bins for this years crop. Around here at least.

[Jim Blake]

Originally Posted by Drewski Canuck

Alot of Grain pricing has to do with how much was booked in the spring, how much was delivered, and how much is being asked for.

Big users like flour mills have to book for a set price for the future pricing in the future. Last thing they want is to get pinched with a poor crop and high prices.

That is where the deliveries come in. If contracts are delivered on at a set price, the remaining crop that is available for market really depends on "new" demand which may not exist. That is why the current price may not be so great.

That and Russia may be dumping anything they can into the World market soaking up demand for Canadian Grains.

Now if India or China wants all that we can deliver, there WOULD be a significant price. I wonder if there is Someone who has managed to alienate these big purchasers, you know, like in the Federal Government??

Drewski

The Fed's just announced a "postponement" of their planned trade mission to India. Looks like sock boy struck again!!

[NCC]

What is canola going to do?

With hay at $0.12/lb and barley at $0.13/lb, I think I'll sell some hay and feed my cows a little barley.

[sakogreywolf]

Originally Posted by IL Bar

Typical harvest pressure. They are trying to scare us to sell as much as we can for as cheap as they can buy it. They do it every year.

No they don’t. While it is normal for harvest time to be lower compared to the rest of the season, there are obvious reasons for it, such as increased selling due to harvest. However, when I look back over the years, the here have been numerous times when harvest time was the best time to sell your grains and canola. $20 - $25 dollar durum and $20 dollar canola from a couple years ago comes to mind…

Ultimately, your price is dictated by how badly your buyer needs it to fulfill their commitments. Pure supply and demand.

[Scott h]

"Flood of Russian Wheat Halves World Prices From Wartime High"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ssia#xj4y7vzkg

[Big Grey Wolf]

Best to just cut and bale it, when some asking $200-$300 for bale better to sell as cow or horse feed.

[Smokinyotes]

Some may be asking $300/bale but are people actually paying that.

[esher]

There is no harvest pressure, no one is delivering grain including me.

[fordtruckin]

Coworkers dad here in Montana is having the best year he has ever had harvest wise. He’s showed me the piles of grain outside the elevators waiting to get hauled off. Of course the next day prices were way down…

[lyallpeder]

Originally Posted by Trochu

Bought two more bins, but will run out of room anyway, so had to sell some barley. Price was around $6.25/bushel. Not great.

If you had enough room to store it, ball park what price would you be looking at and when would you sell it at its peak?

[KBF]

Originally Posted by Smokinyotes

Some may be asking $300/bale but are people actually paying that.

you wouldnt think many bales and for very long. Im afraid something is gonna give majorly.

[Grizzly Adams1]

Originally Posted by Jim Blake

The Fed's just announced a "postponement" of their planned trade mission to India. Looks like sock boy struck again!!

The Russians still haven't renewed the Ukrainian export agreement, the elephant in the room.

Grizz

[Trochu]

Originally Posted by lyallpeder

If you had enough room to store it, ball park what price would you be looking at and when would you sell it at its peak?

Well, I'm kind of a newbie at this, but I'd be happy with $7.00/bushel. Ideally we'd sell it at its peak, but I wouldn't be farming if I could predict that!

[Armorman]

You never EVER sell grain at this time of the year. I could never understand why farmers don't have enough storage for their product. They want to be big time operators and crop the whole county and every little corner in between but don't have the bins so they flood the market with cheap grain off the combine. I'm certain the elevators love these guys.

[barsik]

Originally Posted by Armorman

You never EVER sell grain at this time of the year. I could never understand why farmers don't have enough storage for their product. They want to be big time operators and crop the whole county and every little corner in between but don't have the bins so they flood the market with cheap grain off the combine. I'm certain the elevators love these guys.

grain storage on farm is quite expensive, running around 3.00-5.00 per bu of bin space. modern agriculture is a mad rush to get the most out of a thin profit margin. go price out a new combine and a seed drill. plus a tractor or two...and a sprayer... etc. they are trying to crop as much as they can because of rising expenses. not going to say anything about the brutal seasonal workload or the stress levels. last point is the chemical and fertilizer companies carry these input costs from spring until harvest time, quite devious of them. if you actually walked the land you'd know. it's like being on a financial hamster wheel with health, weather, and the bank the only things that can force you to get off.

[Armorman]

Oh I know all about farming, lol. But I never look at grain storage as expensive.

[Big Grey Wolf]

No one mentioned the plastic storage bags, must be lower cost than grain bins. Only down side is deer and elk like to kick holes in bag and feast on grain. Need more elk hunters.

[Jim]

Originally Posted by Trochu

Bought two more bins, but will run out of room anyway, so had to sell some barley. Price was around $6.25/bushel. Not great.

We were looking at adding more storage capacity but with liberal government bringing in caps or limitations on the amount of fertilizer we can use on our crops then yields are most likely to go down so extra bins would serve no purpose unless adding land to operation.

[W921]

Originally Posted by Smokinyotes

Some may be asking $300/bale but are people actually paying that.

Acreage owners,horse people ,I guess maybe purebred guys or dairy.
Commercial cow calf guys can't pay that much.
300 a bale is close to 550 a short ton!
Currently South of Calgary you can get $150 a bale Montana round bales delivered in your yard.
I think half the trouble in the south is just getting hay trucked. The hay brokers or truckers are buying hay from up north and then reselling in drought area. I'm thinking fifty a ton minimum mark up.
If you don't have your own truck its hard to hire somebody right away to truck for you and there are so many scammers or crooks your crazy to put a deposit on hay and wait for their truck to deliver.
So much stupid regulations its a bit scary trucking hay to far away from farm because if they get picking on you its going to get really, really expensive really quick.

[Grizzly Adams1]

Originally Posted by Jim Blake

The Fed's just announced a "postponement" of their planned trade mission to India. Looks like sock boy struck again!!

Well, he beat that. He Point Blank accused the Indian government of complicity in the murder of a Canadian Sikh activist. That ain't gonna go over well.

Grizz

[MountainTi]

Originally Posted by Grizzly Adams1

Well, he beat that. He Point Blank accused the Indian government of complicity in the murder of a Canadian Sikh activist. That ain't gonna go over well.

Grizz

I was that. Dumber by the day