Covid 19: Medical / Technical Thread

[bdub]

Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette

Who was saying my initial numbers were out to lunch?

Got to take into account the model could change drastically as new data comes in. It could be worse or not.

[Ken07AOVette]

Originally Posted by bdub

Got to take into account the model could change drastically as new data comes in. It could be worse or not.

I sure hope they are wrong. This could go very very bad.

I was thinking Hawaii in Feb, nope.

[WhiteTailAB]

Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette

Who was saying my initial numbers were out to lunch?

I said I would be surprised if there were 200,000 confirmed cases in 2 weeks or so yup. Me.

[raab]

Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette

I sure hope they are wrong. This could go very very bad.

I was thinking Hawaii in Feb, nope.

I wouldn’t cancel anything. Might be able to get a deal. If it’s super bad chances are you die here anyway. I’d rather go out in Hawaii personally.

[Ken07AOVette]

Originally Posted by raab

I wouldn’t cancel anything. Might be able to get a deal. If it’s super bad chances are you die here anyway. I’d rather go out in Hawaii personally.

Nope. We have kids and grandkids and we are not going to go anywhere covered in Asians. Jets are sickness incubators.
Just being realistic.
Some people are purposely causing others to be sick, which I think should have them charged with acts of terrorism. It absolutely is.

Less money spent now means more to have later.

[urban rednek]

This is not meant to negate the potentially serious nature of the current outbreak, only to provide some perspective when viewing the seemingly overwhelming numbers being bandied about.

China 2018 population- 1,427,647,786
China estimated death rate (2017 figures)- 7.11/1,000
China estimated annual deaths- 10,150,575, or 845,881/month
Try to wrap your head around burying the population of Edmonton (981,280 in 2017) 10.3 times per year. The logistics are staggering.

Realistically, the time to start worrying will be when the deaths from the latest crisis start to skew these numbers.

[Ken07AOVette]

Also- we are not worrying, just becoming educated.

We don't want to take pictures of the Elephant's foot at Chernobyl,
not interested in seeing the Philipines volcano up close,
going anywhere in a jet right now after sitting in an airport doesn't interest me today.

HOPEFULLY they get a handle on things.

[bloopbloob]

I can't stress enough. It has been proven this is exponential contagion to the power of 4, and only in its infancy. We're only seeing the first wave of infections right now, so the huge exponential growth numbers are yet to be seen. Also, estimated only 5.1% of cases have been reported. Exponential growth hasn't even had a chance to appear yet. I am not a fear monger, nor a doomsday theorist. I am educated and know enough to see where this is headed. The numbers are scary scary stuff. It is not here yet, but it will be.

To put this into perspective, by the end, SARS only had about 9000 confirmed infected with 9.8% mortality.

We are only in the beginning stage of exponential growth, with 1800 infected last I heard, 41 dead. It will grow, exponentially!! I just don't understand the trolls trying to downplay how serious this is going to be.

[raab]

Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette

Nope. We have kids and grandkids and we are not going to go anywhere covered in Asians. Jets are sickness incubators.
Just being realistic.
Some people are purposely causing others to be sick, which I think should have them charged with acts of terrorism. It absolutely is.

Less money spent now means more to have later.

There’s been no cases in Hawaii, and what like 11 cases outside China. If you book it, just get cancellation insurance. If things get bad then don’t go. Reality is that the virus most likely won’t live as long in a hotter climate and you’ll be fine travelling. There’s literally 10’s of thousands of flights a day in the world. You have a better chance of dying in a car wreck on the way to the airport, then dying from the corona virus in Hawaii. If youre worried about the flight wear a mask. This is exactly what I mean, people are putting their lives on hold due to unreliable information.

[raab]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

I can't stress enough. It has been proven this is exponential contagion to the power of 4, and only in its infancy. We're only seeing the first wave of infections right now, so the huge exponential growth numbers are yet to be seen. Also, estimated only 5.1% of cases have been reported. Exponential growth hasn't even had a chance to appear yet. I am not a fear monger, nor a doomsday theorist. I am educated and know enough to see where this is headed. The numbers are scary scary stuff. It is not here yet, but it will be.

To put this into perspective, by the end, SARS only had about 9000 confirmed infected with 9.8% mortality.

We are only in the beginning stage of exponential growth, with 1800 infected last I heard, 41 dead. It will grow, exponentially!! I just don't understand the trolls trying to downplay how serious this is going to be.

Where are you getting your numbers from?

[WhiteTailAB]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

I can't stress enough. It has been proven this is exponential contagion to the power of 4, and only in its infancy. We're only seeing the first wave of infections right now, so the huge exponential growth numbers are yet to be seen. Also, estimated only 5.1% of cases have been reported. Exponential growth hasn't even had a chance to appear yet. I am not a fear monger, nor a doomsday theorist. I am educated and know enough to see where this is headed. The numbers are scary scary stuff. It is not here yet, but it will be.

To put this into perspective, by the end, SARS only had about 9000 confirmed infected with 9.8% mortality.

We are only in the beginning stage of exponential growth, with 1800 infected last I heard, 41 dead. It will grow, exponentially!! I just don't understand the trolls trying to downplay how serious this is going to be.

Man just cause they don't toe the same line as you doesn't mean they are trolls.

[WhiteTailAB]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN1ZO0FM

US is flying US citizens home from Wuhan.

Also reddit has a lot of info, better than this thread imo.

[Ken07AOVette]

Originally Posted by raab

There’s been no cases in Hawaii, and what like 11 cases outside China. If you book it, just get cancellation insurance. If things get bad then don’t go. Reality is that the virus most likely won’t live as long in a hotter climate and you’ll be fine travelling. There’s literally 10’s of thousands of flights a day in the world. You have a better chance of dying in a car wreck on the way to the airport, then dying from the corona virus in Hawaii. If youre worried about the flight wear a mask. This is exactly what I mean, people are putting their lives on hold due to unreliable information.

I disagree.

Life goes on.

[Ken07AOVette]

Originally Posted by WhiteTailAB

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN1ZO0FM

US is flying US citizens home from Wuhan.

Also reddit has a lot of info, better than this thread imo.

I said the EXACT same thing 2 hours ago

Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette

Coronavirus Live Updates: China Suspends Tours Abroad as Xi Warns of ‘Grave Situation’
The authorities reported 15 new deaths in Wuhan, the center of a virus outbreak, including a medical professional in his 60s.

RIGHT NOW The State Department has ordered all American workers at the United States Consulate in Wuhan to evacuate.

[bessiedog]

Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette

I said the EXACT same thing 2 hours ago

He’s trying to be relevant....

[WhiteTailAB]

Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette

I said the EXACT same thing 2 hours ago

Must have missed your post, not to worry you can have all the credit for posting it first.

[WhiteTailAB]

Originally Posted by bessiedog

He’s trying to be relevant....

I'm relevant enough that I still grab your attention with my posts. I tend to skip over other users posts when that person isn't important enough to give a damn about.

[Zip]

Just to confirm my stance on this... after reading all these posts plus doing some research of my own, I’m happy to say that yesterday I went and bought 2 boxes of masks ( N95 ) rated from our local in town co-op.
I’d also like to say that we are full with gas and food.. which will come in handy either way... still need stuff no matter what..
I’m also going to say that right now I’m glad I live out in the bush in Northern Sask..
even after all that, like Ken said, life will go on and nothing really changes. Am I scared and that’s why I’ve stocked up... nope not a chance am I scared, I never prepared for any other supposed big bad things that were shoved down our throats.. like y2k or sars.. nothing, I did nothing... this one is different, it’s more of a real thing, lotsa people going to wish they planned just alittle...
Always prepare for the worse but at the same time hope for the best..That’s my motto...plus
“KEEP SMILING”
Zip

[Ken07AOVette]

Originally Posted by WhiteTailAB

Must have missed your post, not to worry you can have all the credit for posting it first.

Not my intent but throw manure every chance you can

Originally Posted by WhiteTailAB

I'm relevant enough that I still grab your attention with my posts. I tend to skip over other users posts when that person isn't important enough to give a damn about.

You must love the taste of manure, you seem to lick your fingers everytime you throw it.

[buckbrush]

Originally Posted by Zip

Just to confirm my stance on this... after reading all these posts plus doing some research of my own, I’m happy to say that yesterday I went and bought 2 boxes of masks ( N95 ) rated from our local in town co-op.
I’d also like to say that we are full with gas and food.. which will come in handy either way... still need stuff no matter what..
I’m also going to say that right now I’m glad I live out in the bush in Northern Sask..
even after all that, like Ken said, life will go on and nothing really changes. Am I scared and that’s why I’ve stocked up... nope not a chance am I scared, I never prepared for any other supposed big bad things that were shoved down our throats.. like y2k or sars.. nothing, I did nothing... this one is different, it’s more of a real thing, lotsa people going to wish they planned just alittle...
Always prepare for the worse but at the same time hope for the best..That’s my motto...plus
“KEEP SMILING”
Zip

Glad to hear Zip. Best case scenario it doesn't go bad and you use your food and gas as you normally would. With extra masks on hand you might even be more inclined to use a mask when you know you should but just don't bother. We've all been there.

So if it doesn't go bad your set and if it does you're more prepared than you were before. Win win? I say so.

[Zip]

Originally Posted by buckbrush

Glad to hear Zip. Best case scenario it doesn't go bad and you use your food and gas as you normally would. With extra masks on hand you might even be more inclined to use a mask when you know you should but just don't bother. We've all been there.

So if it doesn't go bad your set and if it does you're more prepared than you were before. Win win? I say so.

Yes sir... exactly!
Thanks
Zip

[bessiedog]

Trade ya the password fer some extra dynamite....

Really should do all three bridges just to be thorough.

And Raab.... we gonna be sending the cranky oldtimers up on quads to watch the passes...

They’ll get ya.

[raab]

Originally Posted by bessiedog

Trade ya the password fer some extra dynamite....

Really should do all three bridges just to be thorough.

And Raab.... we gonna be sending the cranky oldtimers up on quads to watch the passes...

They’ll get ya.

I go where the quads cant get to, better fishin.

[bessiedog]

Originally Posted by raab

I go where the quads cant get to, better fishin.

Good man.

We’ll make space fer ya then.

[WhiteTailAB]

Well at least the N95,N100,P95,P100 masks/filters will help with this spring's/summer's smoke from the yearly forest fires. Also a forest fires seem much more dangerous at this point.

[trophybook]

Just heard Toronto has its first case.

[Zip]

Originally Posted by WhiteTailAB

Well at least the N95,N100,P95,P100 masks/filters will help with this spring's/summer's smoke from the yearly forest fires. Also a forest fires seem much more dangerous at this point.

Look stuff up before you post.. maybe even do yourself a favour and just check to see let’s say just the N95 rated disposable masks and what they protect against! I guess I could put up a dozen links for you to see all the neat stuff you are having trouble comprehending... but I think you know how to do that yourself...I’m old and not very quick... and I found em! Spoiler alert.. your not right on all that!
You can double check, I did!
Zip

[WhiteTailAB]

Originally Posted by Zip

Look stuff up before you post.. maybe even do yourself a favour and just check to see let’s say just the N95 rated disposable masks and what they protect against! I guess I could put up a dozen links for you to see all the neat stuff you are having trouble comprehending... but I think you know how to do that yourself...I’m old and not very quick... and I found em! Spoiler alert.. your not right on all that!
You can double check, I did!
Zip

Oh sorry when I said smoke I meant the particulate.


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...0SI2iSHJ34f8i_

Right on 3M's website N95 and better is suitable for particulate from smoke.

[buckbrush]

Originally Posted by trophybook

Just heard Toronto has its first case.

Announcing live on Global right not. They are trying to find out if he had symptoms on his flights. IF he did they will be tracking down the passengers within 2-3 rows of this guy and keeping an eye on them...Sounds like they at least know he didn't cough on anyone or touch anything within these 2-3 rows.

Nothing to see here folks, Gov. has it under control.

[HVA7mm]

Originally Posted by trophybook

Just heard Toronto has its first case.

Not too surprising as there are getting to be close to two million Chinese Canadians. Chinese New Year is also the time that many go to visit family in China, or family comes to Canada for a visit. Plus we get close to 800K tourists from China in Canada per year.