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  #61  
Old 01-19-2016, 07:59 PM
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Originally Posted by 762Russian View Post
And there is no alternate substance we can use, so it's a monopoly. Hooray.

I need to get me a horse.
You might want to check the price of horse fuel. They don't quit burning it when you're not using them.
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  #62  
Old 01-20-2016, 03:05 PM
The Elkster The Elkster is offline
 
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Here is a great link to a discussion on various sides of the current oil situation. Objective analysis if you care to learn more on the issues...

http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcas...-oil-must-rise
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  #63  
Old 01-20-2016, 08:11 PM
stefk stefk is offline
 
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Here is a great link to a discussion on various sides of the current oil situation. Objective analysis if you care to learn more on the issues...

http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcas...-oil-must-rise
Exactly. In the meantime, anyone who had years of experience either leaves the industry completely never to return, relocates or retires. (I left the patch in the downturn of 2008 and haven't missed the feast and famine cycle one iota.)

Then, when things ramp back up again, the p!$$ing and moaning is heard everywhere how no skilled labor is left, and if it is, its costing a premium due to very few people left in the industry and it starts all over again.

I would like to have thought that history would have been observed and not to be repeated…guess not..
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  #64  
Old 01-20-2016, 10:38 PM
6.5x47 6.5x47 is offline
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Originally Posted by The Elkster View Post
Here is a great link to a discussion on various sides of the current oil situation. Objective analysis if you care to learn more on the issues...

http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcas...-oil-must-rise
The price is being manipulated to hurt competition and prop-up the petro-dollar. If and when prices rise, Canada will still be stuck with no new pipelines and the us remaining as our biggest customer. Canada will be shipping south at wcs where it will be flipped, for a profit, prior to be loaded on to a tanker for its final destination.
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  #65  
Old 01-21-2016, 01:32 AM
skidderman skidderman is offline
 
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I don't understand. Oil hits low lows yet Suncor spends 6 Billion on another oil company. Who in their right mind would do that without knowing something the average person does not? Anybody??????????????
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  #66  
Old 01-21-2016, 05:31 AM
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I don't understand. Oil hits low lows yet Suncor spends 6 Billion on another oil company. Who in their right mind would do that without knowing something the average person does not? Anybody??????????????
I would say the average person does know. Oil has its highs and lows. Buy up when things are low and cheap, put them to work full bore when it starts its upswing. Let history repeat itself.(over and over and over).
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  #67  
Old 01-21-2016, 05:31 AM
6.5x47 6.5x47 is offline
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I don't understand. Oil hits low lows yet Suncor spends 6 Billion on another oil company. Who in their right mind would do that without knowing something the average person does not? Anybody??????????????
Ever heard the phrase- " buy low and sell high"?
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  #68  
Old 01-21-2016, 06:33 AM
The Elkster The Elkster is offline
 
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The idea that the world is flush with oil will end in the next year or two. It looks like oil is firming up for a rise starting the end of this year as fundamentals start to strengthen. With the removal of an estimated trillion dollars from the global oil decline fight. We are going to see a significant rise in prices as we start to lose the never ending fight with natural reservoir declines. Declines that most countries (including OPEC countries) have been fighting for years.


The world is not awash in oil relative to its demand. People are about to learn just how deceiving headlines can be. Invest accordingly.
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  #69  
Old 01-21-2016, 09:07 AM
Bigwoodsman Bigwoodsman is offline
 
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Originally Posted by The Elkster View Post
The idea that the world is flush with oil will end in the next year or two. It looks like oil is firming up for a rise starting the end of this year as fundamentals start to strengthen. With the removal of an estimated trillion dollars from the global oil decline fight. We are going to see a significant rise in prices as we start to lose the never ending fight with natural reservoir declines. Declines that most countries (including OPEC countries) have been fighting for years.


The world is not awash in oil relative to its demand. People are about to learn just how deceiving headlines can be. Invest accordingly
.
Sage advice for sure.

Once this perceived glut has been used at least perceived by the media, the next world oil shortage crisis will begin, and the sky will be the limit.

Interesting how in all of this renewal energy sources keep increasing.

BW
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  #70  
Old 01-21-2016, 10:47 AM
79ford 79ford is offline
 
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Originally Posted by The Elkster View Post
The idea that the world is flush with oil will end in the next year or two. It looks like oil is firming up for a rise starting the end of this year as fundamentals start to strengthen. With the removal of an estimated trillion dollars from the global oil decline fight. We are going to see a significant rise in prices as we start to lose the never ending fight with natural reservoir declines. Declines that most countries (including OPEC countries) have been fighting for years.


The world is not awash in oil relative to its demand. People are about to learn just how deceiving headlines can be. Invest accordingly.
It could happen quicker or take longer but this quarter is really the first time i am starting to hear companies say production will be lower over the year. If iraq and iran etc dont add enough to offset the losses the glut could get worked off at some point in time
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  #71  
Old 01-21-2016, 11:28 AM
The Elkster The Elkster is offline
 
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It could happen quicker or take longer but this quarter is really the first time i am starting to hear companies say production will be lower over the year. If iraq and iran etc dont add enough to offset the losses the glut could get worked off at some point in time
Its going to happen and its going to happen more quickly than people think because MSM do not understand the technical issue and thus are not reporting the whole picture. Believe me or not but stay tuned... I'm a realist and I'll cope with whatever happens. But as a reservoir guy I do know certain things are inevitable in the medium term with the removal of upwards of a trillion dollars in oil spending today. Oil isn't finding its own way to our tanks and none of the oil we've seen in NA over the last few years has been "easy" or "Cheap".

On the negative side we may end up facing skyrocketing oil prices in 2-3 years... too late for many unemployed AB'ers and just as the world economy is about to start on an economic recovery.
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  #72  
Old 01-21-2016, 11:47 AM
avb3 avb3 is offline
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Originally Posted by The Elkster View Post
Its going to happen and its going to happen more quickly than people think because MSM do not understand the technical issue and thus are not reporting the whole picture. Believe me or not but stay tuned... I'm a realist and I'll cope with whatever happens. But as a reservoir guy I do know certain things are inevitable in the medium term with the removal of upwards of a trillion dollars in oil spending today. Oil isn't finding its own way to our tanks and none of the oil we've seen in NA over the last few years has been "easy" or "Cheap".

On the negative side we may end up facing skyrocketing oil prices in 2-3 years... too late for many unemployed AB'ers and just as the world economy is about to start on an economic recovery.
I find it interesting that the future market is reflecting the current scenario, rather than one with a dramatic increase. They've been wrong before, and it may just be following the herd, although I suspect that many larger operators such as the airlines would be buying as much cheap fuel as possible as a hedge now. One would think that those large operators would impact future prices on the upside rather than status quo.
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  #73  
Old 01-21-2016, 12:00 PM
The Elkster The Elkster is offline
 
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I find it interesting that the future market is reflecting the current scenario, rather than one with a dramatic increase. They've been wrong before, and it may just be following the herd, although I suspect that many larger operators such as the airlines would be buying as much cheap fuel as possible as a hedge now. One would think that those large operators would impact future prices on the upside rather than status quo.
Did any of those guys call the drop in price ahead of time??? People are free to listen to whatever speculation they want. But watch and see. The reality will flush out
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  #74  
Old 01-21-2016, 12:15 PM
Map Maker Map Maker is offline
 
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Originally Posted by The Elkster View Post


The world is not awash in oil relative to its demand. People are about to learn just how deceiving headlines can be. Invest accordingly.
Sounds logical and you may be correct.
I thought the same way about iron ore when the 3 biggest companies oversupplied the market to drive down price and weed out the smaller higher cost outfits.
That was 5 years ago and price is still at 5 year lows.
Smaller companies adapt and government bailed them out so it just kept the low price environment constant.

This is the new way to do war.
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  #75  
Old 01-21-2016, 12:38 PM
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Did any of those guys call the drop in price ahead of time??? People are free to listen to whatever speculation they want. But watch and see. The reality will flush out
Like I said, they may just be following the herd.

If I was an airline, I would be tying up this low priced oil for as long as possible into the future.
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  #76  
Old 01-21-2016, 12:40 PM
The Elkster The Elkster is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Map Maker View Post
Sounds logical and you may be correct.
I thought the same way about iron ore when the 3 biggest companies oversupplied the market to drive down price and weed out the smaller higher cost outfits.
That was 5 years ago and price is still at 5 year lows.
Smaller companies adapt and government bailed them out so it just kept the low price environment constant.

This is the new way to do war.
Oil is a little different and most of that stems from the technical issue that a good portion of companies and countries are fighting terminal decline in their pools and their equipment. Oilsands mining is indeed different as it can maintain flat production through the life of the resource. But it makes up such a small part of the total its not key to market stability.

Take Alaska as a small scale example of terminal decline

Their oil pools peaked back in 1988 and have been declining ever since even when oil was +$100 they couldn't goose production much. If they could reasonably bring more on they would but everyone hits a point where you can't keep up on the treadmill. There are OPEC and Non-OPEC countries in the same boat and that matters.

Most people simply don't realize just how much money goes towards keeping production declines at bay. This will be interesting. Longer oil is down, the bigger the hole, the higher the rebound. As an investor best thing that can happen is low oil for another year. Then things will really be set up for a doozy snap back.
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  #77  
Old 01-21-2016, 04:14 PM
79ford 79ford is offline
 
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Originally Posted by The Elkster View Post
Did any of those guys call the drop in price ahead of time??? People are free to listen to whatever speculation they want. But watch and see. The reality will flush out
Futures markets had 2020 oil pegged at 75-80$ while spot oil was 110 before it dropped off.... the impending glut was already being tallied in.

The united states is still eeking out weekly gains in oil production so the shale thesis still hasnt really even started yet
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  #78  
Old 01-21-2016, 05:34 PM
The Elkster The Elkster is offline
 
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Most if not all their shale is declining now. Permian is hanging in there but it'll likely fall now that prices have gone this low. Either way their production is coming down.
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  #79  
Old 01-21-2016, 05:45 PM
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Originally Posted by The Elkster View Post
Most if not all their shale is declining now. Permian is hanging in there but it'll likely fall now that prices have gone this low. Either way their production is coming down.
...and in talking to a person with a major player in Houston, the numbers are dropping quicker than what is being reported
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  #80  
Old 01-21-2016, 07:02 PM
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I think it's going to bounce back pretty wild and hard! But we will see a few more take overs before they let it come back up! Hopefully soon though! It's getting hard and harder trying to supplement my lack of bonus this year by stealing work gloves and battery's! AA's anyone?
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  #81  
Old 01-22-2016, 06:42 PM
79ford 79ford is offline
 
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Originally Posted by The Elkster View Post
Most if not all their shale is declining now. Permian is hanging in there but it'll likely fall now that prices have gone this low. Either way their production is coming down.
The oil inventories are really piling up in the usa lately, the warm winter and demand dropping for everything else from last year is pushing up gasoline, diesel and oil inventories all at the same time. Nigeria actually has bottlenecks at some shipping facilities due to lack of storage, the associated producers are having issues just producing oil because tanks are full at the other end of the pipeline. Brass river terminal in Nigeria which loads shell and some other companies oils has the tanks filled to the brim lots of times, its pretty bad in some places.

Oil had a few good days this week and it is still under 30$.... you would have gotten laughed out of the room for saying sub 40 oil a year ago, now breaking 30$ would be a rally in price lol
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  #82  
Old 01-22-2016, 06:49 PM
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Don't foget we still haven't seen Iran turn the taps on full yet....
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  #83  
Old 01-22-2016, 07:06 PM
I_forget I_forget is offline
 
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Originally Posted by 79ford View Post
The oil inventories are really piling up in the usa lately, the warm winter and demand dropping for everything else from last year is pushing up gasoline, diesel and oil inventories all at the same time. Nigeria actually has bottlenecks at some shipping facilities due to lack of storage, the associated producers are having issues just producing oil because tanks are full at the other end of the pipeline. Brass river terminal in Nigeria which loads shell and some other companies oils has the tanks filled to the brim lots of times, its pretty bad in some places.

Oil had a few good days this week and it is still under 30$.... you would have gotten laughed out of the room for saying sub 40 oil a year ago, now breaking 30$ would be a rally in price lol
Both brent and wti are over $32 today
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