Financial Markets Meltdown

[Stinky Buffalo]

Originally Posted by Trochu

Fixed it for the younger crowd...

[Dean2]

So, like I have asked a few times at different points in time, previously in this thread; in this case, the TSX dipped to 18,300 July 15th, it is now back to 19,700 versus it recent all time high of 22,100 in March 2022. The previous high, prior to the big Covid melt down in March 2020, was 17,892 Feb 17,2020. So even at the bottom of the most recent dip, we stayed above that, and are now significantly above it.

Who is still sitting on the sidelines waiting for the deals to get better. Who thinks this is a dead cat bounce, Bear market bump etc. I can tell you I have been all in for a bit, only cash left to deploy is the monthly dividend stream. If you aren't back in, what is your written re-entry plan? Where do the markets need to be, and what sectors do you think are the right focus. With the most recent volatility, if your investment advisor is not talking to you every month or two, time to get a new advisor. Good luck all.

[Dean2]

Ten days and no one wants to play.

[Outbound]

Originally Posted by Dean2

Ten days and no one wants to play.

I'm focused on clearing the last 10 - 15K of our non-mortgage/vehicle debt and building up a sizeable emergency fund again. We're also putting money into "capital" projects for the house. I'm still investing, just not as much in the market as normal. With the rising inflation, I'm buying hard goods now while they're available and unlikely to get much cheaper.

I'm not as advanced as you though and I'm more of a set it and forget it investor. RRSP in an all equity portfolio with Canada Life (work group RRSP, non-matching but low MER), tax return into a Tangerine all equity TFSA, Wealthsimple RESP for my daughter.

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by KGB

What about Nvidia? It went down all the way to $140 and now hovering around $160. Their chips are apparently top notch for gaming industry and as I heard the auto industry starting to use those too.
Disclaimer: I sold my position when they hit $192…

Like I said, I don't follow the stock but I did remember your question. I saw Nividia's earnings release today and the guidance for the rest of the year. Hope you didn't buy into it. Took a 10% dump today and still heading down because sales are way off expectations and actually shrank a whole bunch. When chips are supposedly in such short supply, that is really bad results.

Outbound

Getting rid of debt where the interest is not tax deductible is a very good idea. Being pretty much debt free with no consumer debt payments means a guy can absorb the inflation hits a little easier.

[KGB]

Nvidia did go down today on the earnings report… and I jumped right in! Their chip is apparently second to none in quality and performance. I am a believer here. Virtual reality and AI is advancing full steam and the company is at the top of that food chain. I purchased 200 shares for now…

[Ken07AOVette]

Originally Posted by KGB

Nvidia did go down today on the earnings report… and I jumped right in! Their chip is apparently second to none in quality and performance. I am a believer here. Virtual reality and AI is advancing full steam and the company is at the top of that food chain. I purchased 200 shares for now…

Nearly $40,000

You are a brave man.

I remember thinking 'if I only had 0 in my bank account' when I had a mortgage and monthly payments.

Hope you do well

- edit- how long ago did you buy?

Nvidia Stock Sinks as Revenue Estimate Misses, Gross Margin Outlook Slashed
By Sabrina Escobar
Updated Aug. 8, 2022 5:32 pm ET / Original Aug. 8, 2022 9:21 am ET
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Nvidia stock has declined 10% this year, while the Nasdaq Composite has fallen 18%.
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Nvidia NVDA –6.30% shares plunged after the chip manufacturer shared preliminary financial results for the second quarter.

Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ) is expecting revenue to be $6.7 billion, well below guidance and estimates calling for $8.1 billion. The miss was primarily due to weaker-than-forecast gaming revenue, which will come in 33% lower year over year at $2.04 billion.

“Our gaming product sell-through projections declined significantly as the quarter progressed,” said Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of Nvidia. “As we expect the macroeconomic conditions affecting sell-through to continue, we took actions with our Gaming partners to adjust channel prices and inventory.”

Adjusted gross margins are expected to come in at 46.1%, down from the company’s previous guidance of 67.1%, Nvidia said. The company still believes its long-term gross margin profile is intact, as it has slowed operating expense growth, said CFO Colette Kress.

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by KGB

Nvidia did go down today on the earnings report… and I jumped right in! Their chip is apparently second to none in quality and performance. I am a believer here. Virtual reality and AI is advancing full steam and the company is at the top of that food chain. I purchased 200 shares for now…

I hope you do really well with the shares you bought today. Like I said, i don't know enough about the company to offer an informed opinion one way or the other.

[EagleEyes]

Am still sitting on around 15 to 20 percent cash. I had been buying but have slowed off the last couple of weeks. I still fell like we will see some better deals. Hoping to pick up some RBC closer to 120 or lower again.Lots of charts still not looking great and with any whisper of rate hikes we've been seeing drops. Hopefully we only see gains though.

[EagleEyes]

What's everyone's thoughts on Suncor? Been lagging lots of it's peers and with a CEO shake up are we going to see more red days or green?

[KGB]

Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette

Nearly $40,000

You are a brave man.

I remember thinking 'if I only had 0 in my bank account' when I had a mortgage and monthly payments.

Hope you do well

- edit- how long ago did you buy?

Nvidia Stock Sinks as Revenue Estimate Misses, Gross Margin Outlook Slashed
By Sabrina Escobar
Updated Aug. 8, 2022 5:32 pm ET / Original Aug. 8, 2022 9:21 am ET
Order Reprints
Print Article
promotion
Text size



Nvidia stock has declined 10% this year, while the Nasdaq Composite has fallen 18%.
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Nvidia NVDA –6.30% shares plunged after the chip manufacturer shared preliminary financial results for the second quarter.

Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ) is expecting revenue to be $6.7 billion, well below guidance and estimates calling for $8.1 billion. The miss was primarily due to weaker-than-forecast gaming revenue, which will come in 33% lower year over year at $2.04 billion.

“Our gaming product sell-through projections declined significantly as the quarter progressed,” said Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of Nvidia. “As we expect the macroeconomic conditions affecting sell-through to continue, we took actions with our Gaming partners to adjust channel prices and inventory.”

Adjusted gross margins are expected to come in at 46.1%, down from the company’s previous guidance of 67.1%, Nvidia said. The company still believes its long-term gross margin profile is intact, as it has slowed operating expense growth, said CFO Colette Kress.

Bought it today at about $180. I had it before and it was one of my top performers. Sold it at around $190 when market was going down in April or may I believe. Should’ve bought it when it was hovering around $160…
I believe it is a temporary downturn for this stock. As I mentioned- there are a lot of money flowing into the VR and AI and they all need Nvidea’s graphic chips…

[Fisherdan]

Originally Posted by Dean2

Ten days and no one wants to play.

I guess nobody likes admitting that they are wrong. I finally capitulated over the last week.

I’m too energy heavy, and that’s been hurting. I don’t understand how last week, the EIA basically reported that US oil consumption fell off a cliff, and then a couple days later, a job report on absolute steroids came out. Are these numbers possible, or are they cooked up for political gain?

[bdub]

Originally Posted by Fisherdan

I guess nobody likes admitting that they are wrong. I finally capitulated over the last week.

I’m too energy heavy, and that’s been hurting. I don’t understand how last week, the EIA basically reported that US oil consumption fell off a cliff, and then a couple days later, a job report on absolute steroids came out. Are these numbers possible, or are they cooked up for political gain?

EIA data is notoriously lumpy. The last report bordered on being unbelievable with some analysts calling it outright BS/manipulated. Gasoline demand below the level of peak covid when videos of empty streets were on the air? Not wanting to sound to much like a conspiracy nut but the Biden admin is doing literally all it can to lower prices. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the US is being drained daily by up to a million barrels a day and Biden is flying around the world begging for more production and pushing other countries to release reserves. They are desperate to bring down prices for political reasons so nothing would surprise me at this point.

Being over weight energy has been the place to be this year despite the last couple months. We're way ahead of the market at this point largely due to energy and commodities. I'm staying long the western governments stupidity of destroying energy security through their green policies. A full fledged recession may slow demand and drop prices temporarily but there is no getting over the lack of investment quickly imo and recessions don't last forever. We added another chunk of TOU on July 7/8 before the quarter where they dished out another huge special dividend, closely followed by CNQ doing the same.

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by Fisherdan

I guess nobody likes admitting that they are wrong. I finally capitulated over the last week.

I’m too energy heavy, and that’s been hurting. I don’t understand how last week, the EIA basically reported that US oil consumption fell off a cliff, and then a couple days later, a job report on absolute steroids came out. Are these numbers possible, or are they cooked up for political gain?

Got to keep oil price down for the us midterm election.

[bdub]

Originally Posted by EagleEyes

What's everyone's thoughts on Suncor? Been lagging lots of it's peers and with a CEO shake up are we going to see more red days or green?

Hopefully this shakeup helps. They have always had production and safety safety issues. I used to own some but gave up on them years ago and not looking to go back.

[thenaturalwoodsman]

100% agreed. A lot of this is manipulated by Biden and his midterm.
I believe higher oil prices ahead and going into winter, there has been some nice buying opportunities the last month or so and likely some more dips coming for those not invested in oil/gas.

Originally Posted by bdub

EIA data is notoriously lumpy. The last report bordered on being unbelievable with some analysts calling it outright BS/manipulated. Gasoline demand below the level of peak covid when videos of empty streets were on the air? Not wanting to sound to much like a conspiracy nut but the Biden admin is doing literally all it can to lower prices. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the US is being drained daily by up to a million barrels a day and Biden is flying around the world begging for more production and pushing other countries to release reserves. They are desperate to bring down prices for political reasons so nothing would surprise me at this point.

Being over weight energy has been the place to be this year despite the last couple months. We're way ahead of the market at this point largely due to energy and commodities. I'm staying long the western governments stupidity of destroying energy security through their green policies. A full fledged recession may slow demand and drop prices temporarily but there is no getting over the lack of investment quickly imo and recessions don't last forever. We added another chunk of TOU on July 7/8 before the quarter where they dished out another huge special dividend, closely followed by CNQ doing the same.

[Dean2]

Norwegian Cruise Lines Quarterly Results - Fair number of folks I know, despite my warnings, were buying this at 21-$25 in Dec 2021 as a re-opening play, it has recently been as low as $10, sitting at about $12.50 right now.

Better than Carnival but still not impressive. They have lost 1.5 Billion in 2022, and lost half a billion of that in the last quarter. Worst part is they are packing $1 of debt for every $1 of assets and total debt went up another 2 BILLION over last year. This means there is no equity, it is 100% owed to lenders. Anything this massively over leveraged is not a company I would put my money in. Exactly what are you getting for your investment? Lenders get interest and security over assets, shareholders get nothing, literally.

Question about Suncor, my take: by all rights it should be a great performer, problem is it has had really bad leadership and a terrible board for decades. It has never demonstrated the performance it should be capable of, just like Petro Canada and Husky. Pretty much any other major oil company is a better choice in my books.

EIA numbers, phony as a $3 dollar bill. My nephew just got back from California, 5.50 a gallon for gas and the roads are jammed. That is the first time in decades where gas in the States is more expensive than here. At 1.30 a litre we are paying $5 per U.S. gallon and if you take exchange into consideration, we pay $3.52 U.S. per U.S. gallon. Democrats are in big trouble over inflation generally and the tip of the spear is gas prices.

Have not sold off any of my energy holdings, still think there is a lot of upside over the next couple of years, recession or not. I agree with what Bdub said.

[thenaturalwoodsman]

I don't own any Suncor, its lagged its peers and more specifically CNQ and this latest round of Dividends (Special) by CNQ won't help. CNRL is the favorite. I own CNQ, CVE, BTE, and ATH.

Originally Posted by EagleEyes

What's everyone's thoughts on Suncor? Been lagging lots of it's peers and with a CEO shake up are we going to see more red days or green?

[Buckhead]

Originally Posted by EagleEyes

What's everyone's thoughts on Suncor? Been lagging lots of it's peers and with a CEO shake up are we going to see more red days or green?

I would not buy it at the current price level, but I will buy some if I see it a lot cheaper. Bought a bunch during the Covid crash so my average price is S16.32. With the current dividend Suncor is paying I am getting a return of around 11.5% just to sit and do nothing. I will take that every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

[Map Maker]

Originally Posted by Buckhead

I would not buy it at the current price level, but I will buy some if I see it a lot cheaper. Bought a bunch during the Covid crash so my average price is S16.32. With the current dividend Suncor is paying I am getting a return of around 11.5% just to sit and do nothing. I will take that every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Congrats on the low buy but I bet you had to hold your nose when you bought suncor during Covid.
I bought some too then from a recommendation but had reservations for sure.

Nice uptick on US tech today.
Lots of people buying but I assume all new investors to tech like myself who never got burned during last bubble.

[Buckhead]

Originally Posted by Map Maker

Congrats on the low buy but I bet you had to hold your nose when you bought suncor during Covid.
I bought some too then from a recommendation but had reservations for sure.

I had no reservations, at all, once the share price started going below $20.
There was value there so I bought. The Petro Canada gas stations alone were worth $10-15 billion. Not to mention the refineries and other assets. It was like paying 30 cents to buy dollar bills. I was happy to do it.

[roper1]

I'm well sub $20 on my Suncor, wish I would have bought more.

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by roper1

I'm well sub $20 on my Suncor, wish I would have bought more.

So the question becomes, do you sell at 50 or keep holding it. Are there other oil stocks with better overall returns. While 2.5x is a great return, most of the other oil companies you could have bought at the same time are up 5 to 10 times their purchase price. For example, Tourmaline is up 7 times, FRU is up 8 times, Cenovous 5 times. This was what I meant when I said it under performs its peers and has for decades.

[Map Maker]

Originally Posted by Buckhead

I had no reservations, at all, once the share price started going below $20.
There was value there so I bought. The Petro Canada gas stations alone were worth $10-15 billion. Not to mention the refineries and other assets. It was like paying 30 cents to buy dollar bills. I was happy to do it.

Nerves of steel I guess.
I remember I bought $50k of Shell at $18 and same of BP.
I thought it was a sure thing. Then Russia flooded the market and shell cut their dividend for the first time since WW2.
Easy to look back now but I couldn’t sleep at the time
That was maximum doom and gloom that Buffett talks about.
I picked another stock that worked out well so no complaints.

[Buckhead]

Originally Posted by Dean2

So the question becomes, do you sell at 50 or keep holding it. Are there other oil stocks with better overall returns. While 2.5x is a great return, most of the other oil companies you could have bought at the same time are up 5 to 10 times their purchase price. For example, Tourmaline is up 7 times, FRU is up 8 times, Cenovous 5 times. This was what I meant when I said it under performs its peers and has for decades.

Would I sell it all at 50. No, but I would trim my position back a bit, say 30%.
Of course, one does not put all ones spare cash into Suncor stock. That is a given. One spreads the money around in a basket of stocks along with some utilities and pieplines. I also don't fret over the past performance of other stocks. Of course, that is something to consider, but I can't invest in yesterday.

[roper1]

Originally Posted by Dean2

So the question becomes, do you sell at 50 or keep holding it. Are there other oil stocks with better overall returns. While 2.5x is a great return, most of the other oil companies you could have bought at the same time are up 5 to 10 times their purchase price. For example, Tourmaline is up 7 times, FRU is up 8 times, Cenovous 5 times. This was what I meant when I said it under performs its peers and has for decades.

Checked, I'm in @ $17.96. If I was to sell it now, I'd buy something else that already has the 5-7x priced in. Potential upside tougher with today's valuations. I had bought Meg, Whitecap, & Cenovus along the way & they've been better for sure. Sell SU, buy more RBY? Problem is, my RBY average right around $105. lol

PM.....sure do appreciate all your input. Thanks!!

[KGB]

Originally Posted by roper1

Checked, I'm in @ $17.96. If I was to sell it now, I'd buy something else that already has the 5-7x priced in. Potential upside tougher with today's valuations. I had bought Meg, Whitecap, & Cenovus along the way & they've been better for sure. Sell SU, buy more RBY? Problem is, my RBY average right around $105. lol

PM.....sure do appreciate all your input. Thanks!!

Look at the techs - looks like they are on the move!

[Fisherdan]

I have some iShares - XEG - Canadian energy. I think I would be better served owning individual shares. A lot of these companies are doing special, one time dividends, which don’t seem to get passed on to owners of these ishares.

I already have FRU. Companies like Cenovus, Meg, White cap, and Tourmaline keep coming up. I am leaning towards white cap for one pick. The dividend and valuation seems nice at the moment. Probably more volatile then a Cenovus though. Thoughts?

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by roper1

Checked, I'm in @ $17.96. If I was to sell it now, I'd buy something else that already has the 5-7x priced in. Potential upside tougher with today's valuations. I had bought Meg, Whitecap, & Cenovus along the way & they've been better for sure. Sell SU, buy more RBY? Problem is, my RBY average right around $105. lol

PM.....sure do appreciate all your input. Thanks!!

The only reason to continue holding SU at $50 is if you think it will continue to rise, it does not pay great dividends at 4.3%, compared to its major competitors. The shares like CNRL, Cenovous, Tourmaline, Vermilion that already rose 5-7 times, will also keep rising if SU rises, but they will still continue to rise faster than SU, and pay larger dividends. Sort of the same as the banks. BNS goes up when TD and RB does, just not as fast, and that has been going on for 40 years. If you print out the 30 year chart for each company and compare them side by side with the other companies in that industry it is REALLY easy to see who the best long term performers are.

As far as what to buy if you sell SU, it really depends on what the rest of your portfolio looks like, time horizons, and the like. The only point I am trying to make with Suncor is as a longer term buy and hold it fails my "Best Couple Of Companies in the Segment" rule. (To be clear, I do not think any Company involved in commodities, including oil and gas, is a good candidate for long term buy and hold. I buy the best run ones when they are down and sell when I think the cycle is reaching a peak. Even then I try to buy the very best run of the bunch in gold, Uranium, copper or oil.)

So like I have said before, of the 6 big banks, RY and TD, never Laurentian or CIBC, never Manulife, Great West and Sunlife yes. Of the Pipelines TRP and PPL, not Enbridge. Of the communications companies, Telus and BCE, not Rogers or Shaw. Utilities and the rest of the sub groups are all the same, there is always a top one or two companies. That is what you want to own for long term gains. Over 50% of the return on a stock comes from re-investing the dividends they pay so the amount of the dividend and it growing regularly every year is also critically important to long term returns.

[Dean2]

Yahoo has a real easy tool for comparing companies over a long periods of time. Here are some of the Canadian Banks as an example. Both the Bank and oil charts clearly demonstrate how different performance is. (Prices are U.S. dollars)

A comment I forgot to make above is I do not own any of the insurance companies because long term all of their results suck.



Random selection of Oil Companies