Covid 19: Medical / Technical Thread

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by HVA7mm

Although we had N95 masks with us while hanging out in Singapore for a few days and in Japanese airports, we didn't end up using any. When looking around at people who were wearing masks, the only ones wearing them correctly were health/government officials and airline employees. The general public inside and outside of the airports/planes that were masked up weren't really protecting themselves or anyone else. Half of them had the masks pulled down under their nose so that breathing was easier, constantly lifting them up to eat/drink, only some of the family members in a group wearing them, many people with ill-fitting masks, people with beards/facial hair (no proper seal), masks resting on the tops of their heads while having a cigarette etc.

Speaking with friends in Australia, they had actually witnessed some people lift their masks off when coughing or sneezing. So yeah, we practiced proper hygiene (hand sanitizer/soap and water, disinfecting wipes for trays etc. on airplane), covering face if coughing/sneezing and stayed the heck away from people who appeared to be sick. Still here, so it's "so far so good".

I don't trust those cheapo N95's for that reason, and others. N95 means 95% filtration. I have fully sealing, fit tested silicone half masks, and P100 filters (99.97% filtration to 3 microns). If it gets here, I'll be wearing that if I need to go anywhere. Wife and kids will be staying home.

[bloopbloob]

Just came across a promising article, but would still be a long time coming.

http://https://chemrxiv.org/articles/Analysis_of_Whole_Genome_Sequences_and_Homology_Mo delling_of_a_3C_Like_Peptidase_and_a_Non-Structural_Protein_of_the_Novel_Coronavirus_COVID-19_Shows_Protein_Ligand_Interaction_with_an_Aza-Peptide_and_a_Noncovalent_Lead_Inhibitor_with_Poss i/11846943

[bdub]

This is not good.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/cdc-...se-in-us.html?

[bdub]

More on the case.

https://www.davisenterprise.com/loca...edical-center/

“Upon admission, our team asked public health officials if this case could be COVID-19. We requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, since neither Sacramento County nor (the California Department of Public Health) is doing testing for coronavirus at this time. Since the patient did not fit the existing CDC criteria for COVID-19, a test was not immediately administered,” said the email, which added that, “UC Davis Health does not control the testing process.”
On Sunday, the CDC ordered COVID-19 testing of the patient and the patient was put on airborne precautions and strict contact precautions. The positive test results were announced on Wednesday.
“We are proud of our health care workers who have been working to care for this patient and are committed to saving this patient’s life,” the email said.

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by bdub

This is not good.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/cdc-...se-in-us.html?

Oh, no turning back now. That's not even a question anymore. I actually think China did a damn good job. The rest of the world will not be capable to pull anything like that off

[HVA7mm]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

Oh, no turning back now. That's not even a question anymore. I actually think China did a damn good job. The rest of the world will not be capable to pull anything like that off

Not at all surprising. After traveling through the airports in Singapore and Tokyo, then arriving at Sea-Tac it was night and day. The level of caution/preparedness in Singapore/Tokyo was unbelievable. Upon arrival in Seattle, besides the airport being way busier due to it's locale and no regional travel restrictions, there were much fewer safeguards in place. Plus the airport was very dirty in comparison. I think that the only saving grace for North America will be the fact that we are much cleaner than developing nations, have a lower population density and cleaner air/water at our disposal. Hopefully common sense will prevail. Who knows, as it's not entirely common anymore.

[j335]

Based what I’ve seen in the last 5 weeks I don’t think this virus will have much effect on Canada other than some supply disruption (my opinion only). But just in case I’ve built up a little supplies

-Prescriptions (never hurts to have a good supply)
-Baby/kids supplies (everything that goes with raising a newborn/toddler)... I don’t wanna run out of diaper/wipes/meds/cream, etc
-First world problem stuff: Do you really think that Kuiu jacket that says “delivery July 2020” will actually be on time? I wouldn’t count on it... Maybe consider moving some purchases ahead, China supplies pretty much everything to build a product. Again easy to live without it but just think about some stuff that will really inconvenience you.

I already have P100 masks at home for outside stuff, bought a few extra filters a month ago for the fun of it. Also if you can’t last 3 days without water coming outta your tap then you really should think about that, Sawyer/Lifestraws are essential at home or on trips (Mexico all inclusive a even). Also always keep a few extra jerry cans of gas, just good practice or at least keep machines topped up so you can siphon out.

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by j335

Based what I’ve seen in the last 5 weeks I don’t think this virus will have much effect on Canada other than some supply disruption (my opinion only). But just in case I’ve built up a little supplies

-Prescriptions (never hurts to have a good supply)
-Baby/kids supplies (everything that goes with raising a newborn/toddler)... I don’t wanna run out of diaper/wipes/meds/cream, etc
-First world problem stuff: Do you really think that Kuiu jacket that says “delivery July 2020” will actually be on time? I wouldn’t count on it... Maybe consider moving some purchases ahead, China supplies pretty much everything to build a product. Again easy to live without it but just think about some stuff that will really inconvenience you.

I already have P100 masks at home for outside stuff, bought a few extra filters a month ago for the fun of it. Also if you can’t last 3 days without water coming outta your tap then you really should think about that, Sawyer/Lifestraws are essential at home or on trips (Mexico all inclusive a even). Also always keep a few extra jerry cans of gas, just good practice or at least keep machines topped up so you can siphon out.

Early stages, but I know my work has already seen supply disruption. Masks and filters are pretty much out of stock everywhere already. Luckily I got our purchaser on board to order 6 months supply early on. Without them, we will not be able to operate under OHS requirements. We are now the largest steel consumer in Canada, after one of the Auto plants in Ontario, GM I think) shut down a facility last year we took over for top spot. We don't buy chinese steel, but it has led others to tap into our sources, causing lack of available stock to purchase. Tick tock....

[Ken07AOVette]

They are talking about possibly cancelling the Olympics in 2020 over this.

Only time other than war.

Iran is showing 15% mortality rate already

[fishnguy]

I think Iran is more likely showing a bunch of missing sick people walking around spreading the disease.

Concerning either way.

[pittman]

Here's a nice article to balance out some of the hysteria.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...ions-1.5477255

"most people are at a higher risk of death driving in everyday traffic in Canada"

If COVID-19 has you guys stocking up on supplies and willing to stay home once it starts circulating here, what are you doing about your risk of death in a traffic accident?

Do you all have your influenza vaccine up to date?

[CaberTosser]

At a recent family gathering I was paying attention to my sister-in-law (molecular biochemist PhD lab researcher) and a friend of hers with similar/parallel qualifications discussing the virus and noting about research grants available for it from the Fed's.

[fishnguy]

^ And? What’s the ending of the story?

[buckbrush]

Originally Posted by pittman

Here's a nice article to balance out some of the hysteria.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...ions-1.5477255

"most people are at a higher risk of death driving in everyday traffic in Canada"

If COVID-19 has you guys stocking up on supplies and willing to stay home once it starts circulating here, what are you doing about your risk of death in a traffic accident?

Do you all have your influenza vaccine up to date?

When government owned media tells us not to panic...we should all be god sheep and listen.

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by pittman

Here's a nice article to balance out some of the hysteria.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...ions-1.5477255

"most people are at a higher risk of death driving in everyday traffic in Canada"

If COVID-19 has you guys stocking up on supplies and willing to stay home once it starts circulating here, what are you doing about your risk of death in a traffic accident?

Do you all have your influenza vaccine up to date?

So far no deaths reported in Canada. I don't interpret your article as being a positive one for your side. The only positives in it, are that it's not here yet. Everything positive you could take from that refers to right now, not the future. A lot of negatives in the same article. Also what good does an influenza vaccine do for this? I don't have a 15% chance of ending up in severe or critical conditon, or a 2% chance of death every time I get in my truck. Not even a close comparison to be stating, just because nothing much has happened IN CANADA YET... Uggggh...

[bloopbloob]

Todays early numbers, they will be going up even more throughout the day as well.

[pittman]

My point is that if you're willing to take extraordinary measures to protect yourself from COVID-19, the rational continuation of that thought would be to protect yourself from all known risks in your life with similar or higher mortality rates.

Driving and influenza being two easy and obvious candidates.

If not, your behaviour would be irrational.

I think with your close attention to the news you've noticed that unless you're carrying a number or significant comorbidities your risk of death from COVID-19 is far less than 2%. Your risk of dying from influenza would also be less than 2% for the same reasons.

Given that most people express mild symptoms, and the virus is reasonably contagious it is almost a certainty that we are underreporting the number of cases. Fortunately, we're pretty good at counting deaths - those are hard to miss.

In other words, without actually knowing the number of infected individuals (different than confirmed cases), your mortality rate calculations are a dramatic overestimation.

[AndrewM]

I haven't seen one person on here saying people should be taking extraordinary precautions. Highly doubt one person on this thread is even wearing a face mask. Being cautious is never a bad thing. Most of us wear seat belts and most of us get immunizations and vaccines. Hopefully we never have to rely on either.

[Zip]

Originally Posted by pittman

My point is that if you're willing to take extraordinary measures to protect yourself from COVID-19, the rational continuation of that thought would be to protect yourself from all known risks in your life with similar or higher mortality rates.

Driving and influenza being two easy and obvious candidates.

If not, your behaviour would be irrational.

I think with your close attention to the news you've noticed that unless you're carrying a number or significant comorbidities your risk of death from COVID-19 is far less than 2%. Your risk of dying from influenza would also be less than 2% for the same reasons.

Given that most people express mild symptoms, and the virus is reasonably contagious it is almost a certainty that we are underreporting the number of cases. Fortunately, we're pretty good at counting deaths - those are hard to miss.

In other words, without actually knowing the number of infected individuals (different than confirmed cases), your mortality rate calculations are a dramatic overestimation.

Can you just clarify your last little paragraph, you say without knowing the actual numbers of infected, the mortality rate calculations are a dramatic overestimation
Soooo how would you know that to be true if you agree we don’t know actual numbers.. are the numbers higher or lower.. sounds like a bad game show..
Please explain how you figured these numbers to be totally wrong?
Thanks
Zip

[Zip]

Originally Posted by AndrewM

I haven't seen one person on here saying people should be taking extraordinary precautions. Highly doubt one person on this thread is even wearing a face mask. Being cautious is never a bad thing. Most of us wear seat belts and most of us get immunizations and vaccines. Hopefully we never have to rely on either.

Annnd this, good post!
Zip

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by pittman

My point is that if you're willing to take extraordinary measures to protect yourself from COVID-19, the rational continuation of that thought would be to protect yourself from all known risks in your life with similar or higher mortality rates.

Driving and influenza being two easy and obvious candidates.

If not, your behaviour would be irrational.

I think with your close attention to the news you've noticed that unless you're carrying a number or significant comorbidities your risk of death from COVID-19 is far less than 2%. Your risk of dying from influenza would also be less than 2% for the same reasons.

Given that most people express mild symptoms, and the virus is reasonably contagious it is almost a certainty that we are underreporting the number of cases. Fortunately, we're pretty good at counting deaths - those are hard to miss.

In other words, without actually knowing the number of infected individuals (different than confirmed cases), your mortality rate calculations are a dramatic overestimation.

No extraordinary measures. Just staying educated. Maybe help others to get educated as well....

For example, Canada's population in 2017 was 36.54 million

Total vehicle fatalities in 2017 was 1679
1679/36,540,000= 0.0000459 = 0.00459% chance of dying in a motor vehicle accident in Canada, over the entire year.
9,960 vehicle accidents with severe injuries.
9,960/36,540,000=0.000273 =0.0273% chance of getting severely injured

Flu death rate in Canada 2017 was 20.2/100000 =0.0202% chance of dying from the flu
Flue cases in Canada in 2017 were 55,000
55,000/36540000 = 0.001505 = 0.15% chance of getting the flu (and confirmed)

Not exactly comparable numbers..........

[Ken07AOVette]

Bloop you can't just go throwing stuff like common sense and factual information into threads, you upset the trolls!!!

Besides, you are far more likely to get killed by a cow than an airplane dropping out of the sky.

[Zip]

Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette

Bloop you can't just go throwing stuff like common sense and factual information into threads, you upset the trolls!!!

Besides, you are far more likely to get killed by a cow than an airplane dropping out of the sky.

Hey Ken, I agree, bloop is not being fair at all, darn facts over fiction, what a concept that is! 🤪🤪
Zip

[Mavrick]

So if we drink to much, smoke to much, do drugs to much, play to hard, work to hard, eat to much.... Putting the mask on is answer, because none of those will get you before this does?

[pittman]

Originally Posted by Zip

Can you just clarify your last little paragraph, you say without knowing the actual numbers of infected, the mortality rate calculations are a dramatic overestimation
Soooo how would you know that to be true if you agree we don’t know actual numbers.. are the numbers higher or lower.. sounds like a bad game show..
Please explain how you figured these numbers to be totally wrong?
Thanks
Zip

Hi Zip,

Mortality rate is calculated as a fraction. Deaths / # Infected. Are you following?

In today's world not too many deaths go uncounted. If you're sick enough to present to a hospital with viral symptoms, you will get swabbed (viral PCR). If you die, you will become part of the numerator. That's a reliable number. Dead is easy to count.

The problem is the denominator. COVID-19 is pretty mild in majority of cases. Tell me, do you go to the hospital ever time you get a a cold? No, most people don't. You seek medical attention when you are sick enough to think something can and needs to be done. So this number is a smaller than reality. Are you still following?

If you underestimate the number of cases (denominator), the calculated death rate will be artificially high. More clear?

[pittman]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

No extraordinary measures. Just staying educated. Maybe help others to get educated as well....

For example, Canada's population in 2017 was 36.54 million

Total vehicle fatalities in 2017 was 1679
1679/36,540,000= 0.0000459 = 0.00459% chance of dying in a motor vehicle accident in Canada, over the entire year.
9,960 vehicle accidents with severe injuries.
9,960/36,540,000=0.000273 =0.0273% chance of getting severely injured

Flu death rate in Canada 2017 was 20.2/100000 =0.0202% chance of dying from the flu
Flue cases in Canada in 2017 were 55,000
55,000/36540000 = 0.001505 = 0.15% chance of getting the flu (and confirmed)

Not exactly comparable numbers..........

Yay more graphs.

Just like COVID-19, mortality from influenza is dependent on your age and health. To cite population level statistics is only meaningful if you're making population level claims.

The CBC article that suggested people are over reacting was talking about your average healthy Canadian. Their chance of death from COVID-19 is VERY low. So is their chance of death from a car accident. So is their chance of death from influenza.

If you are 80 years old, infirmed, and carry a number of significant medical conditions then perhaps your mortality rate is 2% or higher, and your chance of being critically ill 15%.

Interestingly enough, their chance of dying from influenza is pretty high too. Suprising?

[pittman]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

So far no deaths reported in Canada. I don't interpret your article as being a positive one for your side. The only positives in it, are that it's not here yet. Everything positive you could take from that refers to right now, not the future. A lot of negatives in the same article. Also what good does an influenza vaccine do for this? I don't have a 15% chance of ending up in severe or critical conditon, or a 2% chance of death every time I get in my truck. Not even a close comparison to be stating, just because nothing much has happened IN CANADA YET... Uggggh...

Do you fit the demographic who has shown to have 2% mortality and 15% chance of being critically ill? Or are you exaggerating?

[Zip]

Originally Posted by pittman

Hi Zip,

Mortality rate is calculated as a fraction. Deaths / # Infected. Are you following?

In today's world not too many deaths go uncounted. If you're sick enough to present to a hospital with viral symptoms, you will get swabbed (viral PCR). If you die, you will become part of the numerator. That's a reliable number. Dead is easy to count.

The problem is the denominator. COVID-19 is pretty mild in majority of cases. Tell me, do you go to the hospital ever time you get a a cold? No, most people don't. You seek medical attention when you are sick enough to think something can and needs to be done. So this number is a smaller than reality. Are you still following?

If you underestimate the number of cases (denominator), the calculated death rate will be artificially high. More clear?

I don’t have any trouble Following... but I think I was asking what numbers do you have that you think everything posted here is wrong.. Bloop has said many times throughout the Ton of pages we have going on that his info is from numbers he can find.. and said they most likely not correct as you can only go by the numbers given.. this is all made up from higher or lower numbers.... now I beg to ask.. have you been following?
Zip

[bloopbloob]

Totally agree that true flu numbers in Canada are probably much higher than clinically diagnosed numbers. I’m also willing to guarantee that if they are getting clinically diagnosed here in Canada, symptoms were probably pretty bad. That said, the death rate is still only 0.02% across the population. Where this outbreak is happening, they certainly also aren’t testing everyone with symptoms for this virus either, because they simply can't. So true # infected is probably much higher as well. Current mortality rate of closed cases is 8%. Current deaths for total confirmed cases is 3.41% ( plus there are 8471 active cases still in critical/severe condition, so this is not accurate either). I also think all numbers are under reported, including deaths as well.

My point is that even if they are way off, the numbers aren’t even in the same ballpark….. Either way, I will continue to follow this story, and make my stupid graphs, and do my research, as I find it very interesting.

[bdub]

From NY Post just now.
Very concerning imo.

Government health officials and scientists will have to coordinate statements with the vice president’s office, one of three people designated as the administration’s primary coronavirus official.

WASHINGTON — The White House moved on Thursday to tighten control of coronavirus messaging by government health officials and scientists, directing them to coordinate all statements and public appearance with the office of Vice President Mike Pence, according to several officials familiar with the new approach.