Oil Crashing

[avb3]

Originally Posted by rugatika

And there we have it folks. Jealousy when times are good, glee when they're bad.

Talk about taking a quote out of context. It might have helped to put everything in perspective if the whole post was quoted.

[Mackinaw]

Originally Posted by avb3

Currently rental prices are within 15% of what it is in Edmonton, but property values are significantly less. In the US, the issue is not necessarily income, but the devastated credit whereby people with poor credit scores cannot buy even though they could easily afford to at today's prices. It's a completely different market then what Alberta or even Canada has.

The rental market in Edmonton is healthy always has been always will be ......it is the housing sales market that you must be careful of....that why I deal in multi unit income property only.

Mack

[rugatika]

Originally Posted by avb3

My kids, including my son, grew up in St Albert, which has more than its share of affluent citizens. He was twisted when he didn't get any kind of a car at 16 from the old man, and pointed out friends were getting NEW cars.

Two years later he bought his first used one. Found it, checked it over, and only after he put a deposit on it subject to my inspection, did he tell me about it. He told me many years later how ticked he was that I would not fund a car for him, but realized how much better it was to earn it rather than it be given to him like many of his classmates.

Of course this is the same kid who had never rented a place to live in his life. He moved into a condo he bought a week after he graduated from NAIT, having lived at home until then. He worked and saved enough for a down payment during school, and got mortgage approval based on the job offer he had.

He never felt anything was owed to him.

Will this down turn affect him?

Nope. No debts other than his mortgage, and he had lots of equity in his now third house. He bitches about the hourly rate patch workers make in a similar trade, but was astute enough to know that a steady place of employment, with good benefits were worth more than the uncertainty of the patch. His toys are never financed.

So if some of you think I am cold hearted in not feeling sorry for some of those kids who didn't get any trade or profession, perhaps you can see why. I raised my kids to think strategically and to structure their lives to mitigate economic cycles that always will occur as much as possible. Nothing is a given, but one can always lessen potential economic threats.

There are many on this board living that. And some who don't.

Here's the whole quote. Sorry avb3 if you thought my other quote was taking things out of context. I truly and honestly hope that nobody in your family is hurt by any downturn in the economy for whatever reason.

[Wild&Free]

Originally Posted by Mackinaw

The rental market in Edmonton is healthy always has been always will be ......it is the housing sales market that you must be careful of....that why I deal in multi unit income property only.

Mack

my only issue with being a renter is when times are good rental companies can increase rent by inflation AND a fixed %. when times are bad, rental companies can increase rent by inflation(usually higher in a downturn i've noticed) AND a fixed %.

Nothing to allow me to lower my rent when the market is flooded with open properties but to move. I like where I'm at, for the most part but just had a fair increase that I'm not complaining off at all. However if there was a major downturn and the vacancy rate rises (/~1% edmonton wide iirc) it's move or face another increase. If I were to move, my unit would go up at a lower rent then what I was paying.

Anyways back to the OIL discussion.

Just got out of a meeting, more safety/crew meeting then anything but the Area boss has described this as a game of Russian Roulette by OPEC (House of Saud) with the market and right now its a game of who's going to blink first. Argentina and Nigeria have left OPEC because this game has brought the price of oil below there production costs, I can see others leaving soon.

Looks like I'll be going to Bischto again this June

[thunderheart]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVmB3lRjCmc


instead of this in the tuff times ahead

we should be

this is the chits no matter who we are..or where we are ... chill my friends

[avb3]

Originally Posted by rugatika

Here's the whole quote. Sorry avb3 if you thought my other quote was taking things out of context. I truly and honestly hope that nobody in your family is hurt by any downturn in the economy for whatever reason.

The hope is mutual. We can disagree on a lot of things, but no one wants families to suffer.

[xBrokenswordx]

It's sad to see Canadians celebrating hard times for other Canadians based on the fact that they have chosen to move to the same province to earn a living. Seems like some of you don't realise that good people will move to where there is work available.

[LCCFisherman]

I think its easy for the majority of you to comment since you don't live in NE Alberta.. See alot of calgarys, edmontons, central alberta..I can save at least 20% on a home in edmonton compared to up here. Huge resentment among people not in the patch since its your wages and per diems that artificially inflated these markets.. easy to comment from your armchair when you don't live here everyday.

[whitetail Junkie]

Originally Posted by Quinn

Curious what you do for work or how you provide for yourself / family?

Work at a Bottle Depot.

[79ford]

I got a strange email today at work talking about reviewing benefits because of starting leave or promotion.

Cant see getting promoted so probably getting the axe. Haha, ohwell. I built up a three year rainy day fund since i used to work in forestry. Wouldnt mind taking a year off from the noise of work and get back to hiking and fishing in a big way.

The cuts can go where ever, company profits come from workers whether its cutting them or working them.

[From The Hip]

Originally Posted by thunderheart

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVmB3lRjCmc


instead of this in the tuff times ahead

we should be

this is the chits no matter who we are..or where we are ... chill my friends

Thats what I have been saying....but all I see posted is negativity

FTH

[Mackinaw]

Originally Posted by Wild&Free

my only issue with being a renter is when times are good rental companies can increase rent by inflation AND a fixed %. when times are bad, rental companies can increase rent by inflation(usually higher in a downturn i've noticed) AND a fixed %.

Nothing to allow me to lower my rent when the market is flooded with open properties but to move. I like where I'm at, for the most part but just had a fair increase that I'm not complaining off at all. However if there was a major downturn and the vacancy rate rises (/~1% edmonton wide iirc) it's move or face another increase. If I were to move, my unit would go up at a lower rent then what I was paying.

Anyways back to the OIL discussion.

Just got out of a meeting, more safety/crew meeting then anything but the Area boss has described this as a game of Russian Roulette by OPEC (House of Saud) with the market and right now its a game of who's going to blink first. Argentina and Nigeria have left OPEC because this game has brought the price of oil below there production costs, I can see others leaving soon.

Looks like I'll be going to Bischto again this June

Actually you are wrong on one part " that the landlord can raise the rent by inflation plus set %" unlike other Provinces Alberta does not have a cap on rent increase. .A landlord is able to raise the rent every year what ever amount he wants with a 3 months notice...

Mack

[leeaspell]

Originally Posted by From The Hip

Thats what I have been saying....but all I see posted is negativity

FTH

I'm with you. I got friends in the patch, in mills, in residential and some ***** are just grunts in all areas. The price of oil hurts us all. What's it matter if you got a trade and some education, if people ain't making money they ain't spending money. Not much use of being a red seal electrician if majority of folks are facing Lau offs or wage cuts. All of a sudden that fixture or outlet that isn't working which was an issue 6 months ago isn't an issue now when it comes down to a paying an electrician to fix it vs paying the gas bill.

I've worked both sides, the patch and the trades side and its so dependant on each other it isn't funny.

Remember what Red Green said, keep your stick on the ice, we're all in this together

[coreya3212]

Originally Posted by LCCFisherman

I think its easy for the majority of you to comment since you don't live in NE Alberta.. See alot of calgarys, edmontons, central alberta..I can save at least 20% on a home in edmonton compared to up here. Huge resentment among people not in the patch since its your wages and per diems that artificially inflated these markets.. easy to comment from your armchair when you don't live here everyday.

I am not sure I understand your post, but what stops you from moving to Edmonton?

[purgatory.sv]

Originally Posted by leeaspell

I'm with you. I got friends in the patch, in mills, in residential and some ***** are just grunts in all areas. The price of oil hurts us all. What's it matter if you got a trade and some education, if people ain't making money they ain't spending money. Not much use of being a red seal electrician if majority of folks are facing Lau offs or wage cuts. All of a sudden that fixture or outlet that isn't working which was an issue 6 months ago isn't an issue now when it comes down to a paying an electrician to fix it vs paying the gas bill.

I've worked both sides, the patch and the trades side and its so dependant on each other it isn't funny.

Remember what Red Green said, keep your stick on the ice, we're all in this together

Please keep in the loop, your red green statement is soooo true.

[DiabeticKripple]

boss just said we are busy until Q2. he also said we are trying to pick up everything we can for Q2 as well.

our hiring sign is down for the first time in years.

[Wild&Free]

Originally Posted by coreya3212

I am not sure I understand your post, but what stops you from moving to Edmonton?

you have to ask?

[TLCC]

2015 budget has been cut 3 times this fall, I'm not directly in the know but by my estimate we will only have between 10-20% of the work we had last year, I was hoping for a few more days off but not this. Might take some time to polish up the ole resume this weekend, meetings with management next week.

Now don't feel sorry for me, the oil patch is a fickle creature and I've always known I was a trimmable expense. I'm in a pretty good position to survive this one, a few savings, zero debt, cheap rent, no dependants, and successful fiancé. I sure feel for guys who made a big move of some sort in the last year or two, good or bad debt/investment those guys are the ones with their neck on the line.

Dear God, if you just give me one more oil boom...

[Holeshot]

Oil down 50%, gas down 30% ... make sense to me.

Right now is the best time in your entire life to buy oil company stock. Pick a few and within a few years you will wish you had bought more.

Remember when you bought your first house.

[Macdrizzle]

Originally Posted by TLCC

2015 budget has been cut 3 times this fall, I'm not directly in the know but by my estimate we will only have between 10-20% of the work we had last year,

That's a 80-90% CAPEX cut? Which company do you work for?

[rugatika]

Originally Posted by Holeshot

Oil down 50%, gas down 30% ... make sense to me.

Right now is the best time in your entire life to buy oil company stock. Pick a few and within a few years you will wish you had bought more.

Remember when you bought your first house.

good advise...lots of bargains out there right now.

[The Elkster]

Originally Posted by Macdrizzle

That's a 80-90% CAPEX cut? Which company do you work for?

I'm not surprised considering 80% of the remaining undrilled oil in AB is not profitable at $50. Most companies will maintain near term budgets at maybe a 30-40% cut due to work commitments and the help of relatively short term price hedging. Most of this activity will be weighted to Q1 meaning there will likely be very little drill work after breakup.

[TLCC]

Originally Posted by Macdrizzle

That's a 80-90% CAPEX cut? Which company do you work for?

I doubt it its an across the board 80-90% capex cut, just a redistribution away from my services, like I said I knew I was very trimmable.

[Macdrizzle]

Originally Posted by TLCC

I doubt it its an across the board 80-90% capex cut, just a redistribution away from my services, like I said I knew I was very trimmable.

Well all the best to you sir. Only time will tell how this will play out.

[kennedy]

not to worry i dont think....prices of housing will stay the same and the housing industry is doing well. oil will plateau at maybe $32. in 7 months prices will go up again.

[Buzz]

Originally Posted by kennedy

not to worry i dont think....prices of housing will stay the same and the housing industry is doing well. oil will plateau at maybe $32. in 7 months prices will go up again.

Some are saying otherwise:
http://business.financialpost.com/20...ousing-market/

[martinnordegg]

Originally Posted by Buzz

Some are saying otherwise:
http://business.financialpost.com/20...ousing-market/

Very interesting data. Thanks for posting.

[connexion123]

WTI is 47.53/bbl, Brent is almost below 50$/bbl. less than a buck to go.

[martinnordegg]

Originally Posted by connexion123

WTI is 47.53/bbl, Brent is almost below 50$/bbl. less than a buck to go.

That's pretty bad. I wonder what numbers announcement started another slide. Have to do some googling.

[crunchiespg]

Originally Posted by kennedy

not to worry i dont think....prices of housing will stay the same and the housing industry is doing well. oil will plateau at maybe $32. in 7 months prices will go up again.

If you have such a great forecast of world markets why aren't you a billionaire?

If any one truly knows how this will pan out they could make a fortune out of it.

Most of the stuff I've read suggest 5 years or longer. But I don't make any predictions as I admit I don't know. There are a lot of people who can influence this for their own means. Like I think it's fair to say some of this is designed to hurt Russia. So until Putin joins the good boys club again who knows how long it will last.