Financial Markets Meltdown

[Map Maker]

Originally Posted by Map Maker

My bid at $29.05 hit so I am now “in with Zim”.

2 weeks ago when it was at $36, I did some calcs and my estimate that $29.05 is a fire sale book value.
Now I look at the charts and feel it can go lower.
Numbers haven’t changed, just my sentiment.

But I’m in now, so hope this isn’t another Dry shops fiasco and I make a tidy profit. I’ll re-evaluate next quarterly.

Took my lumps and “got out of Zim”.
Something is wrong with the stock or industry.

Broke my rule of buying something I heard on the internet.
Live you learn

[KGB]

Originally Posted by Map Maker

Took my lumps and “got out of Zim”.
Something is wrong with the stock or industry.

Broke my rule of buying something I heard on the internet.
Live you learn

Buddy! They are just warming up! The dividends shown as at 108%!!

[fishnguy]

^ The formula for dividend yield is dividend per share divided by the current share price. Cleary, the higher the dividend paid and the lower the share price, the higher is dividend yield. Another way to put it, as share price approaches zero, the dividend yield approaches infinity Except that the next dividend is not guaranteed.

Edit:

[Map Maker]

Originally Posted by KGB

Buddy! They are just warming up! The dividends shown as at 108%!!

Your dead to me. 😂

[KGB]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

^ The formula for dividend yield is dividend per share divided by the current share price. Cleary, the higher the dividend paid and the lower the share price, the higher is dividend yield. Another way to put it, as share price approaches zero, the dividend yield approaches infinity Except that the next dividend is not guaranteed.

Edit:

Yes, you are correct, I am well aware of this. My post was more like a joke…

[KGB]

Originally Posted by Map Maker

Your dead to me. 😂

Bahahaha!

[KGB]

I hope this rally will continue…

[bdub]

Originally Posted by KGB

I hope this rally will continue…

Market seems to be pricing in the end of the rate hiking cycle after the next one imo.

[IronNoggin]

Canada need only look to Australia to see how badly Liberals have messed up

The current government is economically illiterate and the result is the country is slowly sinking in the rankings of most economic metrics among the world’s developed nations who are members of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development. Canada is becoming the Quebec or Newfoundland of the OECD and the numbers are sobering.

A OECD report from October 2021 predicts, according to Business Council of British Columbia commentary, that Canada “will be the worst performing advanced economy over 2020 to 2030.” It also forecasts that Canada will have the worst economic growth among advanced economies over 2030 to 2060. “In other words, Canada will be dead last not only for the next decade, but also for the three decades after that.”

Canada is a chronic underachiever, a condition caused by poor political decisions and the failure to address unresolved issues, said Canada’s former central bank chief Stephen Poloz at the recent Global Business Forum in Banff.

https://financialpost.com/diane-fran...have-messed-up

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by KGB

I hope this rally will continue…

Aaaand it’s gone

[Trochu]

Originally Posted by fishtank

Aaaand it’s gone

OPEC+'s announcement that's it's cutting production by 2M barrels may help rally some O&G stocks.

[IronNoggin]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQ8T9MBvWRk

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by Trochu

OPEC+'s announcement that's it's cutting production by 2M barrels may help rally some O&G stocks.

the Eu sanctions on Russian oil and gas begins on December 5. Europe going to wish for coal on Christmas to keep ‘em warm .

[Fisherdan]

Originally Posted by Trochu

OPEC+'s announcement that's it's cutting production by 2M barrels may help rally some O&G stocks.

I wonder…. I thought they were already missing targets by over 3 million barrels. Maybe this oil rally is just a blip in what has been a downward trend?

[eric2381]

Buy good solid businesses. Give those businesses time to operate and make profits and pay off debt and build up cash in the bank. Making each portion of the business you own more valuable. Understand commodity cycles. Supply and demand is the basis of the capital market.

[bdub]

Originally Posted by Fisherdan

I wonder…. I thought they were already missing targets by over 3 million barrels. Maybe this oil rally is just a blip in what has been a downward trend?

They are producing less than the groups quota for some time. Each member has a quota but only a handful have any extra spare capacity to produce more than their quota. The burden of the cut will fall on those with extra spare capacity, SA, UAE and a handful of others, so the actual production cut will come in around one million bbl/day.

The OPEC+ cut pretty much matches the Strategic Petroleum Release of one million bbl/day that Biden has been dumping on the market for the last several months. This dump is supposed to end shortly but the Dems may push it out further for political reasons, midterms coming up, but it will end.

OPEC fired a warning shot last meeting with a symbolic 100k cut against Bidens war on oil prices. This cut now is a serious message that OPEC will defend the current price level and sends the message that they are in control of the market, and also that they are in support of Russia as a member. 90$ oil is the new floor whereas they explicitly stated 60$ was just shortly after the pandemic.

[The Elkster]

With Russian oil in limbo and facing more sanctions ahead things are tilted to supply side and OPEC is back in the driver seat. Don't expect the shale industry to do much to change that either. They learned after drilling baby drilling themselves into deficits just a few short years ago. Add to that all the anti-oil messaging and ESG investing, and you have a recipe for high prices for the foreseeable future. On the good side a massive recession may moderate prices.

[fishtank]

Us cpi at 8.2 vs the 8.1 estimate… 40year high s&p dipped below 3500 for a bit , Market is happy until they announce the next rate hike . I think we will see the market come back down in the next few weeks closer to the hike .

[Map Maker]

GIC rates are 4.55% for 2 years.
I started laddering some GIC for family.
Still below inflation but I think we are in a bear market for a year or so.
Nice to have a good return with security.

[bdub]

Loving the war of words going on between Saudi Arabia and the Biden Admin. Note the part that I bolded in the statement. It should read "postponing the decision for a month so Biden doesn't fall on his face at the midterms..."

I don't know how they think manipulating oil markets for political gain can ever be a good thing???


Riyadh, Oct 13, 2022, SPA -- An official at the Foreign Ministry in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia stated that the government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has viewed the statements issued about the Kingdom following the OPEC+ decision announced on October 5, 2022, which have described the decision as the Kingdom taking sides in international conflicts and that it was politically motived against the United States of America.
The Government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia would first like to express its total rejection of these statements that are not based on facts, and which are based on portraying the OPEC+ decision out of its purely economic context. This decision was taken unanimously by all member states of the OPEC+ group.
The Kingdom affirms that the outcomes of the OPEC+ meetings are adopted through consensus among member states, and that they are not based on the unilateral decision by a single country. These outcomes are based purely on economic considerations that take into account maintaining balance of supply and demand in the oil markets, as well as aim to limit volatility that does not serve the interests of consumers and producers, as has been always the case within OPEC +.
The OPEC+ group makes its decisions independently in accordance with established independent practices followed by the international organizations.
The Government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia would also like to clarify that based on its belief in the importance of dialogue and exchange of views with its allies and partners outside the OPEC + group regarding the situation in the oil markets, the Government of the Kingdom clarified through its continuous consultation with the US Administration that all economic analyses indicate that postponing the OPEC+ decision for a month, according to what has been suggested, would have had negative economic consequences.
The Government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia affirms that any attempts to distort the facts about the Kingdom’s position regarding the crisis in Ukraine are unfortunate, and will not change the Kingdom’s principled position, including its vote to support UN resolutions regarding the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, based on the Kingdom’s position on the importance for all countries to adhere to the United Nations Charter, principles of international law, and the Kingdom's rejection of any infringement on the sovereignty of countries over their territories.
The Kingdom stresses that while it strives to preserve the strength of its relations with all friendly countries, it affirms its rejection of any dictates, actions, or efforts to distort its noble objectives to protect the global economy from oil market volatility.
Resolving economic challenges requires the establishment of a non-politicized constructive dialogue, and to wisely and rationally consider what serves the interests of all countries.
The Kingdom affirms that it view its relationship with the United States of America as a strategic one that serves the common interests of both countries. The Kingdom also stresses the importance of building on the solid pillars upon which the Saudi-US relationship had stood over the past eight decades. These pillars include mutual respect, enhancing common interests, actively contributing to preserve regional and international peace and security, countering terrorism and extremism, and achieving prosperity for the peoples of the region.
--SPA


Oils got a long runway ahead. From another statement earlier Opec estimates that 12-13 trillion$ in new investment is needed to maintain a balance in the oil market going forward.

SPR release ending soon, and we are heading into the strong part of the year for energy. Things are looking good, relatively.

[Drewski Canuck]

The Saudi Oil Minister observed that when the 100,000 barrel production cut was announced that the price of Oil actually went DOWN. So there was no credibility to Joe Biden's criticism.

Unless someone knows something about impending consumption increase in the next 6 months. You know, like.... Winter?

Yes there is alot of volatility on daily price swings on large producers like Exxon, but it is clear that the profits and stock values will be going up in the next period of time.

Drewski

[fishnguy]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

I knew Truss was incompetent and she has proven to be so. Britain went full retard and it is going to end badly, very, imo. Again from Reuters: Britain sends investors fleeing with historic tax cuts and borrowing

They are completely nuts and have no clue about basic economics, or so it appears. Which seems to be the trend among many governments currently.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...er-2022-10-14/

Truss, in power for only 37 days, then told a news conference she would now allow a key business levy to rise from next year, raising 18 billion pounds, as she accepted she had gone "further and faster" than markets had been expecting.

"We need to act now to reassure the markets of our fiscal discipline," she said.

The pound slid against the dollar after she spoke, trading 1.2% lower on the day at $1.1198 and two-year British government bonds, or gilts turned negative.
…
The plan for unfunded tax cuts crushed UK assets and drew international censure, but the pound and gilts have started to recover since the government started looking for ways to balance the books.

Kwarteng is the country's shortest serving chancellor since 1970, and his successor will be the fourth finance minister in as many months in Britain, where millions are facing a cost of living crisis. The finance minister with the shortest tenure died.

Lol. She was in over her head. But hey, at least she said she would use the nukes if the opportunity arose. Lol.

Originally Posted by fishnguy

[KGB]

We are already in a recession. Markets are kept going down. One good day following by two weeks of decline. Oil stocks going down too….And I don’t see the bottom yet…

[fishtank]

If it get any worst the USA might be willing to elect a female leader, following in Canada’s and uk’s footsteps .

[bdub]

Almost 12 months since the US market started rolling over with tech taking a pretty good beating so far. Bond markets are having one of the worst years in recorded history and that market is multiples in size larger than the equity market. No safety in the 60/40 portfolio this time around.

Where is the psychology of the market right now? Are we are getting close to the panic/capitulation point?




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[bdub]

Originally Posted by fishtank

Us cpi at 8.2 vs the 8.1 estimate… 40year high s&p dipped below 3500 for a bit , Market is happy until they announce the next rate hike . I think we will see the market come back down in the next few weeks closer to the hike .

This guy thinks the FED is making a policy error if they continue with 75 for the next couple meetings based on how housing data is calculated into core cpi.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/wharton-pr...114500847.html

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-rates-2022-10

[EagleEyes]

I think were about at the denial stage rolling right into panic. I know am getting tried of seeing red but thinking am in mostly blue chip companies so hopefully ill be okay. Haha would like a couple weeks of greener pastures.

[pikeman06]

The tsx just won't dip down below 18000 I've said it before that that's my trigger for jumping into the shaky canadian market and it dips to 18300 or so and back up and down again. Crazy.

[nelsonob1]

IMO it will drop another 10-20 %.

[Buckhead]

IMO we are not yet close to panic/capitulation.
True panic/capitulation is when people start selling stuff that they like and own outright to pay their bills and/or fund their retirement. I’m not really seeing that yet.