Go Back   Alberta Outdoorsmen Forum > Main Category > General Discussion

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #301  
Old 03-04-2020, 06:41 PM
Scott h Scott h is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: At the lake
Posts: 2,316
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1stLand View Post
you got it.
the amount of equity people have in their homes today (the 50 and under crowd) is pretty insignificant. Too much debt. It's unsustainable.
All that debt is going to make this exponentially worse as many have next to no buffer as things move forward. Probably a lot of layoffs coming in the food and beverage, airlines, cruises as well as the tourism sector.
Reply With Quote
  #302  
Old 03-04-2020, 07:13 PM
Bergerboy's Avatar
Bergerboy Bergerboy is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: In your personal space.
Posts: 4,770
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1stLand View Post
you got it.
the amount of equity people have in their homes today (the 50 and under crowd) is pretty insignificant. Too much debt. It's unsustainable.
The amount of debt that people incur these days is beyond me. How do people get themselves in this situation? Is it just living above their means?
__________________
When in doubt, use full throttle. It may not improve the situation, but it will end the suspense.
Reply With Quote
  #303  
Old 03-04-2020, 07:30 PM
Zip-in-Z's Avatar
Zip-in-Z Zip-in-Z is offline
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Sylvan Lake/South Calif.
Posts: 3,465
Default

Feeling like a Yo-Yo but my investments are up today.

D.

__________________
Z-z

Reply With Quote
  #304  
Old 03-04-2020, 07:34 PM
Bergerboy's Avatar
Bergerboy Bergerboy is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: In your personal space.
Posts: 4,770
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zip-in-Z View Post
Feeling like a Yo-Yo but my investments are up today.

D.


Mine as well, hopefully the recovery continues. Had a nice increase in some of my insurance stocks today, will probably unload them tomorrow if this continues.
__________________
When in doubt, use full throttle. It may not improve the situation, but it will end the suspense.
Reply With Quote
  #305  
Old 03-04-2020, 07:47 PM
59whiskers 59whiskers is offline
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: South West Alberta
Posts: 757
Default

Not selling anything. There will be lots of buying opportunity for awhile to average down on some of the past proven performing companies.
Reply With Quote
  #306  
Old 03-04-2020, 07:49 PM
Bergerboy's Avatar
Bergerboy Bergerboy is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: In your personal space.
Posts: 4,770
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 59whiskers View Post
Not selling anything. There will be lots of buying opportunity for awhile to average down on some of the past proven performing companies.
Agreed. Air Canada is one that will come back like a rock star.
__________________
When in doubt, use full throttle. It may not improve the situation, but it will end the suspense.
Reply With Quote
  #307  
Old 03-04-2020, 07:55 PM
Zip-in-Z's Avatar
Zip-in-Z Zip-in-Z is offline
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Sylvan Lake/South Calif.
Posts: 3,465
Default

I'm thinking of selling enough to buy a new Buick Avenir SUV, the dealerships have lots of inventory and no buyers, should be some hot deals if this market continues to decline.

D.
__________________
Z-z

Reply With Quote
  #308  
Old 03-04-2020, 08:30 PM
59whiskers 59whiskers is offline
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: South West Alberta
Posts: 757
Default

My last four years have been spent on diversification of investments outside of this socialist Canadian government economy. Will only invest in Canadian companies that have additional assets outside of Canada while trying not to buy into any foreign company's that have a high foreign with holding tax. It will be a tough lesson for lots of people that have not lived with in their means going forward. Did not forget what happened in Western Canada 40 years ago.
Reply With Quote
  #309  
Old 03-05-2020, 05:56 AM
Justfishin73's Avatar
Justfishin73 Justfishin73 is offline
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Edmonton area
Posts: 1,466
Default

Futures down a good 500 pts. I see a lot of the gains yesterday being given back.
__________________
Wherever you go, there you are
Reply With Quote
  #310  
Old 03-05-2020, 07:07 AM
elkhunter11 elkhunter11 is online now
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Camrose
Posts: 43,018
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Justfishin73 View Post
Futures down a good 500 pts. I see a lot of the gains yesterday being given back.
The analysts are predicting the DOW to drop 700 today. The roller coaster continues.
__________________
Only accurate guns are interesting.
Reply With Quote
  #311  
Old 03-05-2020, 07:27 AM
bdub's Avatar
bdub bdub is offline
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,709
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by elkhunter11 View Post
The analysts are predicting the DOW to drop 700 today. The roller coaster continues.
I would not be surprised to see some days ahead with 2000+ point moves in the Dow.
__________________
There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
Reply With Quote
  #312  
Old 03-05-2020, 08:24 AM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: edmonton
Posts: 3,745
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 59whiskers View Post
Not selling anything. There will be lots of buying opportunity for awhile to average down on some of the past proven performing companies.
Focus n discipline is the long term strategy. Donít wonder off to unknown territory and get too greedy .lots of good long term (3-5 year) holds with a good dividend will be on sale
Reply With Quote
  #313  
Old 03-05-2020, 08:33 AM
Scott h Scott h is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: At the lake
Posts: 2,316
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by elkhunter11 View Post
The analysts are predicting the DOW to drop 700 today. The roller coaster continues.
Don't worry it will start settling down once they have Covid 19 under control
Reply With Quote
  #314  
Old 03-05-2020, 08:45 AM
bsmitty27 bsmitty27 is offline
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: East of the big smoke
Posts: 1,496
Default

You guys have bigger balls, and understand the market better than me. I simply saw a economic hazard coming, that in no way could i perfect a gain, And possibility of huge losses. So i pulled everything 2 weeks ago. Right or wrong, has yet to be seen. But my stress level is low, that's worth its weight in gold.
Brad
Reply With Quote
  #315  
Old 03-05-2020, 08:56 AM
Scott h Scott h is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: At the lake
Posts: 2,316
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bsmitty27 View Post
You guys have bigger balls, and understand the market better than me. I simply saw a economic hazard coming, that in no way could i perfect a gain, And possibility of huge losses. So i pulled everything 2 weeks ago. Right or wrong, has yet to be seen. But my stress level is low, that's worth its weight in gold.
Brad
History will probably be kind to you.....
Reply With Quote
  #316  
Old 03-05-2020, 09:01 AM
CDNOutdoorsman CDNOutdoorsman is offline
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 566
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by fishtank View Post
Focus n discipline is the long term strategy. Donít wonder off to unknown territory and get too greedy .lots of good long term (3-5 year) holds with a good dividend will be on sale
Do you have any examples of these good long term companies with good dividends? wink wink.
Reply With Quote
  #317  
Old 03-05-2020, 02:32 PM
bdub's Avatar
bdub bdub is offline
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,709
Default

Well that's day six of a 3+ percent point move in the SP500 since the market top. We are batting .500 now. Are we enjoying the ride yet?

VIX SP log ret
14.38 0.47%
15.56 -0.38%
17.08 -1.06%
25.03 -3.41%
27.85 -3.07%
27.56 -0.38%
39.16 -4.52%
40.11 -0.83%
33.42 4.50%
36.82 -2.85%
31.99 4.13%
39.58 -3.45%
__________________
There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
Reply With Quote
  #318  
Old 03-05-2020, 02:36 PM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: edmonton
Posts: 3,745
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by CDNOutdoorsman View Post
Do you have any examples of these good long term companies with good dividends? wink wink.
how long you planning to hold it for ??
Reply With Quote
  #319  
Old 03-05-2020, 02:38 PM
Dean2's Avatar
Dean2 Dean2 is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Near Edmonton
Posts: 14,500
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bdub View Post
Well that's day six of a 3+ percent point move in the SP500 since the market top. We are batting .500 now. Are we enjoying the ride yet?

VIX SP log ret
14.38 0.47%
15.56 -0.38%
17.08 -1.06%
25.03 -3.41%
27.85 -3.07%
27.56 -0.38%
39.16 -4.52%
40.11 -0.83%
33.42 4.50%
36.82 -2.85%
31.99 4.13%
39.58 -3.45%
So far I would have to say I am. All in, as long as you didn't own airlines, Cruise, travel related type stocks going into this there is some good money to be made. Net, most quality portfolios are still up from where they were in Oct 2019. I am not normally a day trader but given the current volatility there is some very easy money to be made buying and selling short term. When you can pickup 10-15% in a day, which is a rate of return many would be ecstatic with for a full 12 months, how bad can that be. When it settles out there are also some GREAT deals on top notch Blue Chip high Dividend stocks. It is all a matter of perspective.
Reply With Quote
  #320  
Old 03-05-2020, 02:44 PM
Justfishin73's Avatar
Justfishin73 Justfishin73 is offline
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Edmonton area
Posts: 1,466
Default

Be a while yet before I even think of doing anything. Was at bank at lunch moving some money around--bank--"you should invest that money, we can help you"

UM, hell, no
__________________
Wherever you go, there you are
Reply With Quote
  #321  
Old 03-05-2020, 02:55 PM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: edmonton
Posts: 3,745
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Justfishin73 View Post
Be a while yet before I even think of doing anything. Was at bank at lunch moving some money around--bank--"you should invest that money, we can help you"

UM, hell, no
everytime they try to sell me investment products( gic , mutual ) at the bank, i tell them iam saving up for a share of birkshire hardaway ..
Reply With Quote
  #322  
Old 03-05-2020, 03:20 PM
bdub's Avatar
bdub bdub is offline
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,709
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean2 View Post
When it settles out there are also some GREAT deals on top notch Blue Chip high Dividend stocks. It is all a matter of perspective.
Yes there sure will be some bargains if this thing continues to go the way I think it may.

The following info isn't directed at you Dean, just random info for perspective.

The math of large losses makes coming back from them increasingly difficult to recover from the further down you go. A 10% loss requires a gain of 11% to get back to even. -30% requires 43%, -50% requires 100%, -60% requires a 150% gain to get back to even.

This is the one point against the long only, buy and hold through thick and thin, 100% stock portfolio that makes me cringe when I think about it.
__________________
There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
Reply With Quote
  #323  
Old 03-05-2020, 03:32 PM
smitty9 smitty9 is offline
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 690
Default MMMMmmmmm....Volatility

Volatility....an option trader's dream.

Sell premium, hedged with a pair trade or a long position, and watch the money roll in.
Reply With Quote
  #324  
Old 03-05-2020, 03:49 PM
CDNOutdoorsman CDNOutdoorsman is offline
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 566
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by fishtank View Post
how long you planning to hold it for ??
I'm game for anything. Hope to retire in 8ish years...
Reply With Quote
  #325  
Old 03-05-2020, 03:54 PM
Ken07AOVette's Avatar
Ken07AOVette Ken07AOVette is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Alberta
Posts: 24,075
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by fishtank View Post
everytime they try to sell me investment products( gic , mutual ) at the bank, i tell them iam saving up for a share of birkshire hardaway ..
I went to the bank a few days ago to withdraw some cash, the new teller had to know what I was doing with it. I told her I was buying guns. Shut her right up.
__________________
Only dead fish go with the flow. The rest use their brains in life.


Originally Posted by Twisted Canuck
I wasn't thinking far enough ahead for an outcome, I was ranting. By definition, a rant doesn't imply much forethought.....
Reply With Quote
  #326  
Old 03-05-2020, 03:58 PM
Twisted Canuck's Avatar
Twisted Canuck Twisted Canuck is offline
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: GP AB
Posts: 15,765
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette View Post
I went to the bank a few days ago to withdraw some cash, the new teller had to know what I was doing with it. I told her I was buying guns. Shut her right up.
Should have told her you were going to Thailand to buy some children. And video record her reaction.

Kinda off topic though.
__________________
'Once the monkeys learn they can vote themselves a banana, they'll never climb another tree.'. Robert Heinlein

'You can accomplish a lot more with a kind word and a gun, than with a kind word alone.' Al Capone
Reply With Quote
  #327  
Old 03-05-2020, 04:43 PM
KinAlberta KinAlberta is offline
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 1,058
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bdub View Post
Yes there sure will be some bargains if this thing continues to go the way I think it may.

The following info isn't directed at you Dean, just random info for perspective.

The math of large losses makes coming back from them increasingly difficult to recover from the further down you go. A 10% loss requires a gain of 11% to get back to even. -30% requires 43%, -50% requires 100%, -60% requires a 150% gain to get back to even.

This is the one point against the long only, buy and hold through thick and thin, 100% stock portfolio that makes me cringe when I think about it.
Beware of bubbles. This headline is from 2017. In 2020 itís still in the low 20s and itís now 4 decades after the big peak. Imagine the 60 something guy with 100% equities retiring around 1980 thinking that buy and hold works on all markets. Dividends would have been critical.

Nikkei 225: The Japanese stock market's 20-year high is still around 50% below its 1989 peak ó Quartz

https://qz.com/1103091/nikkei-225-th...its-1989-peak/




Warren Buffett once pointed out the 17 year period in the 1960s and 70s where the index (price weighted not TR) closed in the 1970s at basically the same level as it was 17 years before in the early 1960s. Buy and holders that look to the index as a measure of their own portfolio performance need to be able to ride out long stretches of seemingly poor years. They should view them as opportunities to add to their portfolio but if they are forced to sell to live, selling low is a major problem.
Reply With Quote
  #328  
Old 03-05-2020, 05:21 PM
Zip-in-Z's Avatar
Zip-in-Z Zip-in-Z is offline
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Sylvan Lake/South Calif.
Posts: 3,465
Default

Yo-Yo hit the ground again today, Fridays are normally worst, look out.

D.


__________________
Z-z

Reply With Quote
  #329  
Old 03-05-2020, 06:42 PM
bdub's Avatar
bdub bdub is offline
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,709
Default

Ray Dalio put this out a couple days ago. Those selling protection could get killed he's thinking.

https://heisenbergreport.com/2020/03...ce-against-it/
__________________
There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
Reply With Quote
  #330  
Old 03-05-2020, 06:50 PM
Justfishin73's Avatar
Justfishin73 Justfishin73 is offline
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Edmonton area
Posts: 1,466
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zip-in-Z View Post
Yo-Yo hit the ground again today, Fridays are normally worst, look out.

D.


Wait till the end of the month, which is also the end of the quarter......

Dow tracking Nikkei, which is down big, should be a bloodbath tomorrow
__________________
Wherever you go, there you are
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:48 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.5
Copyright ©2000 - 2023, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.