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11-09-2020, 07:39 AM
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Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: West Central Alberta/Costa Rica
Posts: 1,114
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Markets and Commodities
Looks like the markets and commodities are roaring this morning. Pfizer has a great announcement on vaccine progress as well.
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11-09-2020, 08:49 AM
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Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 6,272
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Interesting when you get rid of a incompetent US President the markets really take off.
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11-09-2020, 08:54 AM
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Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Edm
Posts: 1,299
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Grey Wolf
Interesting when you get rid of a incompetent US President the markets really take off.
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The markets took off when Trump was elected, also. The president makes almost no difference, the general direction of policy might (taxes when Republicans took control), but the real driver of the markets is the absence of a bond market worth anything, stupid cheap money, along with the unimagined amounts of cash being injected into the system. Enjoy the everything bubble.
Last edited by Erik; 11-09-2020 at 09:02 AM.
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11-09-2020, 09:32 AM
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Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 1,058
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Erik
The markets took off when Trump was elected, also. The president makes almost no difference, the general direction of policy might (taxes when Republicans took control), but the real driver of the markets is the absence of a bond market worth anything, stupid cheap money, along with the unimagined amounts of cash being injected into the system. Enjoy the everything bubble.
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I’d argued that for years over several US presidents.
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11-09-2020, 12:16 PM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,713
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New game, new narrative with a vaccine.
Rotation from what worked in pandemic, to cyclicals and the stuff that was thrown out in March in full force. Some CDN oil names up 20+%, cve, su, cnq.
Bonds getting slapped with the ten yr up over .95.
Gold taking a hit with risk on.
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There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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11-09-2020, 08:06 PM
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Moderator
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Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Strathmore
Posts: 5,627
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Grey Wolf
Interesting when you get rid of a incompetent US President the markets really take off.
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Realistically probably has more to do with a Republican Senate that won't allow him his taxes or 'The Green New Deal'
US political gridlock typically good for the global economy, keeps everyone from enacting too much hard left or hard right policies.
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11-10-2020, 03:05 PM
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Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 29
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Market topped
They failed to pump on the most bullish news.
We have been waiting, as retail, for a vaccine. The narrative has been “once we get the vaccine we can get back to normal”
Finally we get the vaccine, the choose one has arrived, yet markets failed to go up. The most bullish news everyone has been waiting for, yet markets are not going up.
Bezos sold twice.
Once in first week feb, a month before the dump.
Once in first week august, almost a month before the second dump.
I made a mental note to pay attention to when he sells next.
He sold again for a third time first week November.
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11-10-2020, 05:11 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 2,358
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Anyone read the fine print in the vaccine news? Its needs to be stored at -70C (-94F) to stay viable https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN27Q1G1. At standard freezing temps it has a shelf life of days...no doubt with severely reducing efficacy at that. Even the Mayo clinic noted they don't have the ability to store anything at this temp. The announcement was so premature its not even funny. I also read and article that they are still waiting on safety data...ummm maybe hold off the announcement LOL. Of course its safe though. That is why vaccine manufacturers have been given a blanket exception ( https://www.ft.com/content/12f7da5b-...a-e726b75eef4d) from liability on any corona vaccine. Boy does that make me feel good. Not going to delve into the political angle of the announcement timing but its certainly suspicious given the unknowns. The idea that any meaningful area of the world is going to have this storage capability anytime soon is ridiculous. This world has been firmly removed from reality and into a wishful dreamland and politically motivated quagmire of BS.
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11-10-2020, 05:20 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 2,358
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainJ
They failed to pump on the most bullish news.
We have been waiting, as retail, for a vaccine. The narrative has been “once we get the vaccine we can get back to normal”
Finally we get the vaccine, the choose one has arrived, yet markets failed to go up. The most bullish news everyone has been waiting for, yet markets are not going up.
Bezos sold twice.
Once in first week feb, a month before the dump.
Once in first week august, almost a month before the second dump.
I made a mental note to pay attention to when he sells next.
He sold again for a third time first week November.
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What is forgotten in all this is that there we were already toppy Before Covid. There was plenty of talk of the incredible bull run up to spring 2020 and of a potential recession before this all hit. The idea that we are at all time highs given that fact AND all the negatives that have transpired with Covid (with no real end in sight) is utterly...honestly I have no words. At least none I can say here without getting a lifetime ban.
Last edited by The Elkster; 11-10-2020 at 05:35 PM.
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11-12-2020, 09:43 AM
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Near Edmonton
Posts: 15,069
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The comments made about shares being highly over valued, Ponzi scheme etc, what is your solution. If you put a $100,000 in your mattress n 1980, you would be pretty disappointed with what you can buy with that money today, so unless you own appreciating assets, sitting on straight cash is a recipe for ending up in thee poor house. To stay ahead of inflation, your money has to be in a business that produces growing sales and profits, in land in the right location or the market. You pick which one, or the mix of those but leaving cash in a can is not a good idea.
I have also said this MANY times before, if your earnings in the stock market are taxable in the year you buy and sell, then what you gain by trying to time the market is severely constricted. Even if your investments are in tax deferred accounts is is pretty easy to get this wrong. Missing the run up will cost you far more than the drop you avoided. RBC shares have gone from 105 to 75 Feb 22 to March 21. They are back at $100 today. If you got the timing just right you made a ton, if you sold a little late, March 4th was at 94, Mar 14 87 and have not bought back in yet waiting for the big drop predicted for this fall and winter you really don't want to miss buying back in on the next drop. If you just sat on your shares for the last 8 months you are back to almost even with Feb 22nd, you are up $17 from Dec 22 2018 and have collected 1.94 cents in Dividends since Dec 2018.
Own high quality dividend paying stocks, the best in each category. If you had put $100,000 into Royal bank shares in 1980, instead of your mattress, you would be a multi millionaire today with $6.5 million dollars in stock, and $325,000 a year in dividend income instead of the equivalent of $50,000 in purchasing power for the cash. (Straight buy and hold with dividends reinvested in the Drip). If you did buy and sell trying to time it you would be lucky to have half as much, just from paying taxes on the gain, let alone missing the run ups. If you had done the same thing with BNS you would only have 1.5 million, proving that holding the best in class is key, but that is still a pot load better than cash in a tin. If you futz around with the pumped up, get rich quick stuff you would likely be broke today. (The values for RBC and BNS are actually understated by quite a lot as my calculator actually only goes back to 1995 for this kind of thing).
Last edited by Dean2; 11-12-2020 at 09:58 AM.
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11-12-2020, 05:53 PM
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Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 1,058
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Volatility. There’s a lot of investor and professional money and a huge amount of leverage involved in playing the short-term market conditions.
Vaccines are now on the horizon so in a few years time the pandemic impacts should be history.
Wall Street ends sharply lower as pandemic fears resurge | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idINKBN27S21Q
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11-12-2020, 08:42 PM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,713
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Volatility has been running roughly double what it was pre covid in stocks, gold and oil. 1-2% daily moves in markets is the new normal it seems.
__________________
There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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11-13-2020, 08:54 AM
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 2,358
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean2
The comments made about shares being highly over valued, Ponzi scheme etc, what is your solution. If you put a $100,000 in your mattress n 1980, you would be pretty disappointed with what you can buy with that money today, so unless you own appreciating assets, sitting on straight cash is a recipe for ending up in thee poor house. To stay ahead of inflation, your money has to be in a business that produces growing sales and profits, in land in the right location or the market. You pick which one, or the mix of those but leaving cash in a can is not a good idea.
I have also said this MANY times before, if your earnings in the stock market are taxable in the year you buy and sell, then what you gain by trying to time the market is severely constricted. Even if your investments are in tax deferred accounts is is pretty easy to get this wrong. Missing the run up will cost you far more than the drop you avoided. RBC shares have gone from 105 to 75 Feb 22 to March 21. They are back at $100 today. If you got the timing just right you made a ton, if you sold a little late, March 4th was at 94, Mar 14 87 and have not bought back in yet waiting for the big drop predicted for this fall and winter you really don't want to miss buying back in on the next drop. If you just sat on your shares for the last 8 months you are back to almost even with Feb 22nd, you are up $17 from Dec 22 2018 and have collected 1.94 cents in Dividends since Dec 2018.
Own high quality dividend paying stocks, the best in each category. If you had put $100,000 into Royal bank shares in 1980, instead of your mattress, you would be a multi millionaire today with $6.5 million dollars in stock, and $325,000 a year in dividend income instead of the equivalent of $50,000 in purchasing power for the cash. (Straight buy and hold with dividends reinvested in the Drip). If you did buy and sell trying to time it you would be lucky to have half as much, just from paying taxes on the gain, let alone missing the run ups. If you had done the same thing with BNS you would only have 1.5 million, proving that holding the best in class is key, but that is still a pot load better than cash in a tin. If you futz around with the pumped up, get rich quick stuff you would likely be broke today. (The values for RBC and BNS are actually understated by quite a lot as my calculator actually only goes back to 1995 for this kind of thing).
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I don't make a habit of trying to time the market. I've done well in the market with the slow and steady approach. I would never have pulled money out on the fear of a standard recession. I saw the pandemic coming and saw it as a huge/unprecedented blackswan event...and that it has been. Being close to retirement I pulled tax sheltered money to be cautious and try to preserve what I have over the unknown period.
Seeing the lengths to which gov'ts will go to prop up a market on the brink has given me some peace of mind to put my money back in the market. I will do so although at this point I think I'll wait to see how this latest outbreak is going to play out with massive new business shutdowns likely.
Covid aside I don't like what I see in the market in the way of a break from reasonable valuations because "reasons" but you can't do anything about market sentiment and leaving money in cash is just going to mean inflation eating it all away. The money printing is off the charts! There really is no choice but to be in the market...but IMO the choice is a pretty poor one when you look at the underlying fundamentals. We are now playing in a monopoly money world. We'll see how that plays out but it leaves me feeling very uneasy. Its actually accelerated my retirement plans. Spend it while ya still got it.
Happy investing
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11-13-2020, 10:53 AM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
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If you think the world is running on monopoly money, which it is, then cash is trash. Governments are printing like crazy, the money supply is growing like crazy and governments are spending like crazy. Gold is one of the few things that makes any sense in these conditions. There is still alot value out there in some beaten down stuff I think. The gains in tech have pulled most of the weight in the index, its not cheap.
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There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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11-13-2020, 11:38 AM
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Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 29
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Is anyone buying bitcoin yet?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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11-13-2020, 11:42 AM
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Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 566
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Well as long as my blue chips keep paying dividends and reinvesting I am not following to much. RBC has been money for me.
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11-13-2020, 11:51 AM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,713
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainJ
Is anyone buying bitcoin yet?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Im starting to change my mind on it. I’ll be watching the etf when/if it comes out next year.
__________________
There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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11-13-2020, 12:23 PM
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Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdub
Im starting to change my mind on it. I’ll be watching the etf when/if it comes out next year.
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Most people won’t be getting involved until it crosses $20k usd
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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11-13-2020, 12:44 PM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,713
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainJ
Most people won’t be getting involved until it crosses $20k usd
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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It strikes me as something that can go from 20k to 200k or from the 20k to zero. I don’t know. Make 1000% or loose 100%. Might be worth taking a small stab at it. How much up or downside are insider people thinking about? I did see one company in the US put a good portion of there assets into Bitcoin. Its getting mote mainstream. I worry about regulatory risk with it. I think thats the big one that could send it to zero.
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There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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11-13-2020, 01:12 PM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,713
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Dean I have to correct you on one point first. I did not say gold was more or less volatile than stocks. I said that having it in the portfolio reduces portfolio volatility. Holding less than perfectly correlated assets does that. It reduces my risk. Combine that with a period where the asset outperforms and you get higher returns and less volatility. We’ve had probably 18 years where that has been the case for having some gold in a portfolio.
The second point you continue to mention is the performance of the banks. Comparing Canadian bank stocks like they are the only asset in your portfolio is cherry picking the best class of stock. Like buying Berkshire back then. What other stocks have done better than Canadian banks? Darn few. Your comparisons would be more valid if you used a stock market index as a comparison.
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There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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11-13-2020, 12:58 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Near Edmonton
Posts: 15,069
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainJ
Is anyone buying bitcoin yet?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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I won't touch Bitcoin until it is in a firmly regulated market. Right now you have no way of knowing if the Bitcoin you are buying even actually exists, and even if it is real what could happen to it under regulation. Right now you are playing Roulette and the house has all the advantage. If you treat it like gambling fine, but it sure as hell isn't investing.
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11-14-2020, 08:14 PM
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Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 314
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean2
I won't touch Bitcoin until it is in a firmly regulated market. Right now you have no way of knowing if the Bitcoin you are buying even actually exists, and even if it is real what could happen to it under regulation. Right now you are playing Roulette and the house has all the advantage. If you treat it like gambling fine, but it sure as hell isn't investing.
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Granted you may have a great understanding of markets and traditional investments, but not so with Bitcoin. I absolutely know the Bitcoin I’ve purchased is mine and it’s relatively easy to tell. Bitcoin shouldn’t and most likely can’t be regulated. There is no house. There are whales, but the only form of manipulation is through participation.
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11-14-2020, 08:49 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Near Edmonton
Posts: 15,069
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ehrgeiz
Granted you may have a great understanding of markets and traditional investments, but not so with Bitcoin. I absolutely know the Bitcoin I’ve purchased is mine and it’s relatively easy to tell. Bitcoin shouldn’t and most likely can’t be regulated. There is no house. There are whales, but the only form of manipulation is through participation.
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You assume a great deal about someone u know very little about. I sat on the Bank of Canada Curreny committee when it first started looking into how to regulate Bitcoin, among many other things, in 2006 and I was on that group until 2012 but I am sure you have a far deeper understanding of the ins and outs of Bitcoin. Feel free to carry on putting your cash into play with your perfect understanding of this market.
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11-15-2020, 12:53 AM
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Near Edmonton
Posts: 15,069
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To clarify, I checked my notes for the committee. I sat on the Currency committee from 2006 to 2012, the use of blockchain for financial transactions was discussed in 2010 but actual regulation of bitcoin didn't start being discussed until 2011.
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11-17-2020, 02:49 AM
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Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean2
You assume a great deal about someone u know very little about. I sat on the Bank of Canada Curreny committee when it first started looking into how to regulate Bitcoin, among many other things, in 2006 and I was on that group until 2012 but I am sure you have a far deeper understanding of the ins and outs of Bitcoin. Feel free to carry on putting your cash into play with your perfect understanding of this market.
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That might actually make you less qualified to understand bitcoin. Lol. Don’t attack me, I’m joking only.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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11-27-2020, 10:00 PM
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Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 314
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean2
You assume a great deal about someone u know very little about. I sat on the Bank of Canada Curreny committee when it first started looking into how to regulate Bitcoin, among many other things, in 2006 and I was on that group until 2012 but I am sure you have a far deeper understanding of the ins and outs of Bitcoin. Feel free to carry on putting your cash into play with your perfect understanding of this market.
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Sorry got super hectic at work and just haven't had time to spend on these boards. Firstly, of course I'm assuming a great deal about a person I know very little about, this an internet messaging board. Secondly, Bitcoin didn't exist in '06.
If you look at my past posts I have always been and am still very positive on bitcoin. In fact I would still say that when I buy bitcoin I am more optimistic of it's future benefit than any stock I currently hold. That said, bitcoin may fail too, nothing is for sure.
Also, there is nothing interesting about blockchain and most other crypto currency. Bitcoin's intrinsic value is in decentralization. Everything else I own is subject to the Crown. If I've committed my hierarchical seed keys to memory Bitcoin may be the only wealth in existence that is truly mine and untouchable by any person, Government or Court.
As with anything time will tell, but I also don't deceive myself with an arbitrary distinction between investing and gambling. It's all gambling, but in a world of 0% interest rates what can do but play the games.
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11-13-2020, 07:54 PM
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Edmonton SW
Posts: 1,565
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainJ
Is anyone buying bitcoin yet?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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I just opened up a BTC and ETH account (Wealthsimple app) - waiting for funds to transfer. Looking to set up 1-2% of my total portfolio in here as a hedge and see how it goes. Was told if crypto dropped to the 10k-14k levels again to load up
payables solutions like Square (maybe PayPal) are offering as a service option now.
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Last edited by Austin; 11-13-2020 at 08:00 PM.
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11-14-2020, 11:59 AM
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Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: West Central Alberta/Costa Rica
Posts: 1,114
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Land and proving up gravel deposits have been the best investment I have made.
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