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  #3001  
Old 04-02-2023, 10:16 PM
Fisherdan Fisherdan is offline
 
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Originally Posted by bdub View Post
I think they are basically broke.
Gonna drag their buts refilling it.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ve-2023-03-23/
Guess you’re right. The article states that they are still going to sell an additional 26 million barrels to “help fund the federal budget”. Sad.

Oil hit over $81 earlier, but is settling down now. Should be interesting tomorrow… or not! Haha! (Lately seems bullish news ends up bearish, and bearish news is bullish).
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  #3002  
Old 04-03-2023, 10:28 AM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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Gold is ready to run along with oil …. Teck has a take over bid by glencore.
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  #3003  
Old 04-05-2023, 08:46 AM
Fisherdan Fisherdan is offline
 
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TD bank is the most shorted bank in the world right now. Yikes! Thoughts anyone?

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...zon-2023-4?amp
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  #3004  
Old 04-05-2023, 09:04 AM
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I copied some of the comments from a Bloomberg article and added my own clarifying comments.

Three major themes at play here like the article says, and at least a pair of them are tied to those U.S. regional bank concerns – namely, there remain questions on how exactly TD’s planned US$13.4-billion acquisition of First Horizon will play out. They can pay the break fee and walk away if the Bank does not agree to a much lower price that matches its current share price. There are also concerns over the value of TD’s roughly 10 per cent stake in Charles Schwab, which has been caught up in the downdraft that has hit the American banking system. TD has more than enough Capital to write Schwab to zero with no effect on their solvency.

The Canadian real estate thing is a red herring, all the Canadian Banks have very large mortgage portfolios. However, all loans with less than 25% equity are insured so the Bank has zero loss exposure on them and the average debt ratio on TD's portfolio, is just over 60%.

On top of that, shorting Canadian banks has long been something of a widow maker trade – with the hefty dividend yields on the Big Six, they end up being an expensive carry (shorts have to pay out dividends to those they borrow the stock from) and given the relative stability of the banking oligopoly in this country, those trades seldom work out. Some of the largest funds have accumulated many, many billions in losses over the last 16 years, shorting Canadian Banks.

Last edited by Dean2; 04-05-2023 at 09:09 AM.
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  #3005  
Old 04-05-2023, 09:33 AM
Fisherdan Fisherdan is offline
 
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Thanks. That’s interesting that Canadian banks have been shorted many times before.
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  #3006  
Old 04-06-2023, 09:07 AM
Drewski Canuck Drewski Canuck is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Dean2 View Post
I copied some of the comments from a Bloomberg article and added my own clarifying comments.

Three major themes at play here like the article says, and at least a pair of them are tied to those U.S. regional bank concerns – namely, there remain questions on how exactly TD’s planned US$13.4-billion acquisition of First Horizon will play out. They can pay the break fee and walk away if the Bank does not agree to a much lower price that matches its current share price. There are also concerns over the value of TD’s roughly 10 per cent stake in Charles Schwab, which has been caught up in the downdraft that has hit the American banking system. TD has more than enough Capital to write Schwab to zero with no effect on their solvency.

The Canadian real estate thing is a red herring, all the Canadian Banks have very large mortgage portfolios. However, all loans with less than 25% equity are insured so the Bank has zero loss exposure on them and the average debt ratio on TD's portfolio, is just over 60%.

On top of that, shorting Canadian banks has long been something of a widow maker trade – with the hefty dividend yields on the Big Six, they end up being an expensive carry (shorts have to pay out dividends to those they borrow the stock from) and given the relative stability of the banking oligopoly in this country, those trades seldom work out. Some of the largest funds have accumulated many, many billions in losses over the last 16 years, shorting Canadian Banks.
Now if only price had something to do with value....

The problem with the stock market is you get the "flavour of the month" and stock prices are driven up by public perception. Take the tech stock bubble for instance. Companies actually said that they would not make any money for the foreseeable future, and the next day the stock goes up 10 %. That was Amazon in the late 1990s by the way.

Sometimes there is something the public does not know that the Hedge Funds and insiders do know.

Shorting stock is a dangerous game. Look at what happened with GameStop which rocketed from $19 on Jan 11 2021 to $347 a share 16 days later. Someone figured out that there was not enough stock to cover all the short positions (138% of market cap), a Reddit movement started to drive the price, short positions paid dearly.

Anyways, we will sit on the sidelines and will see who was right. Either way, it puts a big damper on public perception of the Canadian Bank Stocks.

Drewski
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  #3007  
Old 04-06-2023, 10:01 AM
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Trochu Trochu is offline
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Anyone own Argonaut Gold on here?

Seems like a bit more gambling than investing, as they've pushed all their chips into the middle for their one mine, Moria.....oops, Magino in Ontario, which seems like it's suppost to start producing here pretty quick.
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  #3008  
Old 04-06-2023, 10:10 AM
gordfishing gordfishing is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Trochu View Post
Anyone own Argonaut Gold on here?

Seems like a bit more gambling than investing, as they've pushed all their chips into the middle for their one mine, Moria.....oops, Magino in Ontario, which seems like it's suppost to start producing here pretty quick.
I own AR and have for a long time, it was even called Timmins back in the day, I'm not the smartest investor but I do own it and even bought more at 42 cents
Maybe someday it will get back to the higher levels, especially if gold even gets to 2500 per ounce which some do predict

Follow the story of Trillion Energy, I believe that could be a real winner, do your DD , its an impressive story with a couple of reviews indicating a target of $1.50
Art the CEO is very forth coming and actual provides weekly updates.

Remember as for investing in the market you don't know what you don't
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  #3009  
Old 04-06-2023, 10:02 PM
raab raab is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Dean2 View Post
I copied some of the comments from a Bloomberg article and added my own clarifying comments.

Three major themes at play here like the article says, and at least a pair of them are tied to those U.S. regional bank concerns – namely, there remain questions on how exactly TD’s planned US$13.4-billion acquisition of First Horizon will play out. They can pay the break fee and walk away if the Bank does not agree to a much lower price that matches its current share price. There are also concerns over the value of TD’s roughly 10 per cent stake in Charles Schwab, which has been caught up in the downdraft that has hit the American banking system. TD has more than enough Capital to write Schwab to zero with no effect on their solvency.

The Canadian real estate thing is a red herring, all the Canadian Banks have very large mortgage portfolios. However, all loans with less than 25% equity are insured so the Bank has zero loss exposure on them and the average debt ratio on TD's portfolio, is just over 60%.

On top of that, shorting Canadian banks has long been something of a widow maker trade – with the hefty dividend yields on the Big Six, they end up being an expensive carry (shorts have to pay out dividends to those they borrow the stock from) and given the relative stability of the banking oligopoly in this country, those trades seldom work out. Some of the largest funds have accumulated many, many billions in losses over the last 16 years, shorting Canadian Banks.
What you’re missing with regards to mortgages IMO is the amount of time between lapsed payments and the insurance payout. If a large segment of the population all stop paying their mortgage in a relatively short period of time. Do the banks have enough liquid assets to handle the drop in cash flow? I’m not convinced they do.
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  #3010  
Old 04-06-2023, 10:10 PM
raab raab is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Trochu View Post
Anyone own Argonaut Gold on here?

Seems like a bit more gambling than investing, as they've pushed all their chips into the middle for their one mine, Moria.....oops, Magino in Ontario, which seems like it's suppost to start producing here pretty quick.
After looking at the stock I have to ask why you want to buy it?
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Last edited by raab; 04-06-2023 at 10:17 PM.
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  #3011  
Old 04-06-2023, 10:32 PM
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Dean2 Dean2 is online now
 
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Originally Posted by raab View Post
What you’re missing with regards to mortgages IMO is the amount of time between lapsed payments and the insurance payout. If a large segment of the population all stop paying their mortgage in a relatively short period of time. Do the banks have enough liquid assets to handle the drop in cash flow? I’m not convinced they do.
Short form, you are incorrect. They have more than adequate cashflow to backstop the shortfall in payment stream. It would take a great amount of work to demonstrate how this works and I have no interest in taking the time to do that, but it doesn't get worse than the late 80s and cashflow wasn't remotely the major issue.

I don't know of a polite way of saying this so I will just say it the way I see it. You will not see a major Canadian Bank fail for any reason. You can make up all the hair ball scenarios you like but it doesn't mean that is going to happen. If you want to argue an apocalyptic outcome, please take the time to provide the detailed analysis that you are basing it on. The rest is just armchair BS.

Lord knows I get tired of trying to explain what should be obvious but i will keep doing it because too many "sounds good" doomsday scenarios keep showing up as real stories. These are no different than the Robinhood crowd that were buying Bed Bath and Beyond while they were filing for Bankruptcy or the idiots buying crypto. Just because a many million fall for a story line, doesn't make it right or true.

Last edited by Dean2; 04-06-2023 at 10:55 PM.
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  #3012  
Old 04-07-2023, 01:08 AM
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nelsonob1 nelsonob1 is offline
 
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Originally Posted by raab View Post
What you’re missing with regards to mortgages IMO is the amount of time between lapsed payments and the insurance payout. If a large segment of the population all stop paying their mortgage in a relatively short period of time. Do the banks have enough liquid assets to handle the drop in cash flow? I’m not convinced they do.
You do realize that the banks have our cash all the time, right? Whether it is bank deposits, loan payments, CC payments, the cash is held in a bank. If we buy gold, that cash goes into a bank. The only real danger is if a lot of depositors move the cash to another bank and create a run. Pretty hard to do that with a big bank.
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  #3013  
Old 04-07-2023, 08:47 AM
ehrgeiz ehrgeiz is offline
 
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or the idiots buying crypto. Just because a many million fall for a story line, doesn't make it right or true.
Whoah hey now, need to slow your roll on that. Crypto may well be full of scams (just like trad-fi), but at this point to suggest that it’s not a real asset class and there is nothing worthwhile there is just ignorance. No doubt you have a keen understanding of finance and investments and I appreciate your insight in this thread but that’s a pretty poor take on crypto or rather those who own it!
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  #3014  
Old 04-07-2023, 10:36 AM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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US just approved 40 years mortgage… Canada will follow soon ?
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  #3015  
Old 04-07-2023, 01:21 PM
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Originally Posted by raab View Post
After looking at the stock I have to ask why you want to buy it?
Well, potential upside. Seems they aren't a huge company, with inflation, price oil, etc., their construction costs were approx. $300M more than anticipated, took all their free cash, revenue plummeted. The theory bow being that the mine is done, gold price going up, and another mine online, revenue will be higher than before, and stock prices will go up significantly.
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  #3016  
Old 04-07-2023, 04:11 PM
eric2381 eric2381 is offline
 
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Myself, I wouldn’t be buying anything gold related at this time. The risk is too high for me, I’m looking elsewhere. But each to their own.
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  #3017  
Old 04-07-2023, 06:31 PM
eric2381 eric2381 is offline
 
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In all aspects and sectors of “assets”, most important is always managing risk. On entry and on exit. And on being sure to buy real, valuable assets that are undervalued looking into the future.
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  #3018  
Old 04-08-2023, 04:39 PM
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Originally Posted by ehrgeiz View Post
Whoah hey now, need to slow your roll on that. Crypto may well be full of scams (just like trad-fi), but at this point to suggest that it’s not a real asset class and there is nothing worthwhile there is just ignorance. No doubt you have a keen understanding of finance and investments and I appreciate your insight in this thread but that’s a pretty poor take on crypto or rather those who own it!
Not trying to insult you but what I said is what I really believe. Crypto is NOT an asset. It is a mental construct with nothing physical to backstop it. There is no Country GDP backing it like FIAT currency, you can't touch it, you can't eat, wear or play with it. It is an idea. Crypto mining wastes a tremendous amount of electricity and produces absolutely nothing of real, tangible value. It is a huge con job and a major scam being perpetrated on people who should but don't seem to know better. This is not investing, this is participating in a major pyramid scheme. If all the computers in the world went dead, show me the Crypto. It would not exist any more.

Do what you like, but be sure you know the risks.
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  #3019  
Old 04-08-2023, 09:53 PM
eric2381 eric2381 is offline
 
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Thanks for saying that Dean. People need to look at reality and never use their emotions to invest. “Investing” time into learning about the details of the pyramid scheme, do people harm because they tend to believe what they read and formulate a “truth” in their own minds and they become emotionally attached to the idea behind it and tunnel vision takes over from there.
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  #3020  
Old 04-09-2023, 01:45 AM
raab raab is offline
 
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Not trying to insult you but what I said is what I really believe. Crypto is NOT an asset. It is a mental construct with nothing physical to backstop it. There is no Country GDP backing it like FIAT currency, you can't touch it, you can't eat, wear or play with it. It is an idea. Crypto mining wastes a tremendous amount of electricity and produces absolutely nothing of real, tangible value. It is a huge con job and a major scam being perpetrated on people who should but don't seem to know better. This is not investing, this is participating in a major pyramid scheme. If all the computers in the world went dead, show me the Crypto. It would not exist any more.

Do what you like, but be sure you know the risks.
The best part of crypto is that the government can’t seize it. That’s what you’re paying for. It’s a way to store your wealth without fear that the government could confiscate it. If you needed to flea the country you could and you wouldn’t be lugging a bunch of gold/silver with you. You could simply buy a new phone and go into your crypto wallet wherever you fled to and you’d be able to access your wealth.

That said it is in no way an investment or currency. Although I think doge coin has potential on the currency front. Libertarians are naturally drawn to crypto to fight against the government monopoly on our currency which is why guys like Cuban and Musk are backing it.
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  #3021  
Old 04-09-2023, 02:03 AM
raab raab is offline
 
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Well, potential upside. Seems they aren't a huge company, with inflation, price oil, etc., their construction costs were approx. $300M more than anticipated, took all their free cash, revenue plummeted. The theory bow being that the mine is done, gold price going up, and another mine online, revenue will be higher than before, and stock prices will go up significantly.
JMO but I always buy companies with a positive cash flow. Argonaut is losing money hand over fist and I wouldn’t be surprised if it went under. Literally every metric I would use to value a company is negative.

For me I try to value companies mainly based on their future earnings. It’s very difficult to value a commodity company because of the earnings fluctuating.

That said i may be wrong and it may become a great investment. If I’m betting though, I would say it goes down.

How quick do you want to make money? I recently recommended Coke(KO) as a buy at $60. I believe it will be worth double that adjusted for inflation in 10 years, and it will still be a strong business you could hand down to your kids. If you’re willing to wait I think you’ll do well.
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  #3022  
Old 04-09-2023, 02:19 AM
raab raab is offline
 
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You do realize that the banks have our cash all the time, right? Whether it is bank deposits, loan payments, CC payments, the cash is held in a bank. If we buy gold, that cash goes into a bank. The only real danger is if a lot of depositors move the cash to another bank and create a run. Pretty hard to do that with a big bank.
They don’t have our cash all the time. When I take out $100 for spending money that’s mine.


That said, if a mortgage payment automatically came out of your bank and you could no longer afford it. What would you do?

Most people would take the money out of the bank, or start a new account with a different bank. That way the original bank couldn’t access their funds and withdraw the mortgage leaving them with no cash.

So a mortgage crisis, would create a run on the banks and liquidity crisis as a result of people hoarding cash, changing banks and not paying bills.

Again I could be wrong
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  #3023  
Old 04-09-2023, 11:40 AM
MyAlberta MyAlberta is offline
 
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Originally Posted by raab View Post
They don’t have our cash all the time. When I take out $100 for spending money that’s mine.


That said, if a mortgage payment automatically came out of your bank and you could no longer afford it. What would you do?

Most people would take the money out of the bank, or start a new account with a different bank. That way the original bank couldn’t access their funds and withdraw the mortgage leaving them with no cash.

So a mortgage crisis, would create a run on the banks and liquidity crisis as a result of people hoarding cash, changing banks and not paying bills.

Again I could be wrong
RRSPs, TFSAs, FHSAs,... Banks are well funded with your money. Sure, you could run out on mortgage payments, or pay off your credit with credit, but it won’t be the bank crashing in those scenarios
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Old 04-09-2023, 03:38 PM
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Not trying to insult you but what I said is what I really believe. Crypto is NOT an asset. It is a mental construct with nothing physical to backstop it. There is no Country GDP backing it like FIAT currency, you can't touch it, you can't eat, wear or play with it. It is an idea. Crypto mining wastes a tremendous amount of electricity and produces absolutely nothing of real, tangible value. It is a huge con job and a major scam being perpetrated on people who should but don't seem to know better. This is not investing, this is participating in a major pyramid scheme. If all the computers in the world went dead, show me the Crypto. It would not exist any more.

Do what you like, but be sure you know the risks.
100% agree. And just a clarification on the GDP for those that think Fiat is worse or similar to bitcoins. A country that has GDP can tax that GDP to support their national currency. The value of a countries currency is a reflection of those assets/strength of economy and integrity to pay its bills. And the value of its natural resources and the ability to turn them into goods. Hence the reason Canada’s dollar is so weak…..that idiot in Ottawa creating barriers to the use of our resources.

Take a look at the number of scams and scandals involving crypto coins and exchanges.

And on the waste….crypto mining is really producing nothing of substance but burning up a valuable resource (energy) which has an environmental impact. I wouldn’t be suprised if cryptos get banned solely on this fact alone. The only reason it hasn’t is that banks and billionaires and politicians are dabbling in it to make a profit. Once they can get out of it and leave joe-average holding the bag…bust!!!!

Also think of how tempting the US banning it would solve their money printing press issue and inflation. Wiping out spendable value is a sure way to curb inflation…..which is starting to really get out of hand with now wage increase demands happening with people wanting to keep up with inflation and their bills.
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Old 04-10-2023, 02:39 AM
raab raab is offline
 
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RRSPs, TFSAs, FHSAs,... Banks are well funded with your money. Sure, you could run out on mortgage payments, or pay off your credit with credit, but it won’t be the bank crashing in those scenarios
Oh, you really think Canadian banks have 0 risk if the housing market corrects, and loans stop getting paid? This is a good read on the subject: https://www.worldbank.org/en/publica...banking-crisis

We had a massive run up on housing prices, we have rising interest rates and we have valuations dropping in bonds and housing. While the risk is low, it’s not 0. Oxford economics says we have a 5.4% chance on a banking crisis in Canada this year, and 18-20% within the next 3-5 years, but again what do I know?

https://financialpost.com/executive/...6797d33cf/amp/
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Old 04-10-2023, 02:56 AM
raab raab is offline
 
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100% agree. And just a clarification on the GDP for those that think Fiat is worse or similar to bitcoins. A country that has GDP can tax that GDP to support their national currency. The value of a countries currency is a reflection of those assets/strength of economy and integrity to pay its bills. And the value of its natural resources and the ability to turn them into goods. Hence the reason Canada’s dollar is so weak…..that idiot in Ottawa creating barriers to the use of our resources.

Take a look at the number of scams and scandals involving crypto coins and exchanges.

And on the waste….crypto mining is really producing nothing of substance but burning up a valuable resource (energy) which has an environmental impact. I wouldn’t be suprised if cryptos get banned solely on this fact alone. The only reason it hasn’t is that banks and billionaires and politicians are dabbling in it to make a profit. Once they can get out of it and leave joe-average holding the bag…bust!!!!

Also think of how tempting the US banning it would solve their money printing press issue and inflation. Wiping out spendable value is a sure way to curb inflation…..which is starting to really get out of hand with now wage increase demands happening with people wanting to keep up with inflation and their bills.
I’m sure the government will do as good of job at banning crypto, as they’ve done with banning drugs. The fact is crypto can’t be traced, and is decentralized across the world. Even if the Canadian government banned it, they couldn’t stop people from using it because they have no way of knowing if you own crypto, and they can’t shut it down.
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Old 04-10-2023, 02:08 PM
ehrgeiz ehrgeiz is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Dean2 View Post
Not trying to insult you but what I said is what I really believe. Crypto is NOT an asset. It is a mental construct with nothing physical to backstop it. There is no Country GDP backing it like FIAT currency, you can't touch it, you can't eat, wear or play with it. It is an idea. Crypto mining wastes a tremendous amount of electricity and produces absolutely nothing of real, tangible value. It is a huge con job and a major scam being perpetrated on people who should but don't seem to know better. This is not investing, this is participating in a major pyramid scheme. If all the computers in the world went dead, show me the Crypto. It would not exist any more.

Do what you like, but be sure you know the risks.
Thank you for the opportunity to discuss crypto. It's a quiet day at work in the private sector, and I love writing about this topic. I'm well down the rabbit hole, so strap in for a long one.

Bitcoin has now existed, persisted, and thrived for nearly 15 years. Are you familiar with the Lindy Effect? If Bitcoin were to fail based on your arguments, I think it would have done so already. Now, this isn't to say there aren't real risks to the network. It appears the US is currently attempting to restrict fiat on/off ramps and designate certain crypto protocols as securities, posing issues for investors due to the inherently non-compliant design. This creates a barrier to institutional holding. As we saw with the convoy protest, governments cutting off financial services to dissident citizens is real and likely to be used again when needed. As "money" becomes increasingly digital, this will be the tactic of choice since it is effective, invisible, and non-violent. Most concerning is that technology is enabling an unprecedented level of centralized control over citizens.

I personally view Bitcoin and Ethereum as the light against the encroaching darkness. It's possible they could become illegal in Western "democracies" due to the threat they pose. This innovation is not unlike the printing press, with the potential to sever the government's unilateral control of monetary policy, similar to how church and state were separated. It's like a doctrine of three kingdoms, if you will, a technology empowering individual rights even further. When I invest and participate in specific crypto protocols, I see it as shaping the future I want for myself and my children. With that said, let's address your practical points.

Tangibility and purpose. Bitcoin's core innovation is eliminating the need for a trusted intermediary in financial settlement. It also greatly accelerates settlement speed (although no L1 protocol can currently scale to world-level volume, but that's another technical tangent). Other critical innovations include permissionless and decentralized systems. I can transfer value to anyone worldwide with an internet connection, without interference from any sovereign force or sanctions. The ability to freely transact with any other human is, in my opinion, a fundamental right. Denying the value of these innovations would be hypocritical, as they resemble the profitable service banks provide: a system of trust. However, banks have many rules, conditions, and corruptible administrators ultimately beholden to the sovereign, not the individual. If all computers stopped working one day, a failed crypto asset would be the least of our worries. If you're preparing for that future, I'd suggest guns, ammo, and cattle – not bad holdings, honestly!

Energy consumption. Often the final argument against Bitcoin, but let me address your concern. If you genuinely object to its energy use and not just as an excuse, I have great news! As of September 15, 2022, Ethereum successfully merged to the beacon chain through consensus, replacing the Proof of Work mining protocol with Proof of Stake, reducing energy consumption to a tiny fraction. It now uses around 2,600,000 kWh, roughly equivalent to powering 360 homes – not bad at all. I'm still a proponent of Bitcoin's PoW protocol. Energy use and conservation are not binary; energy generation often results in waste because it cannot easily be transported and stored when needed. Enter Bitcoin – a perfect economic battery and balancer. Excess electrical generation can be converted into hash power, resulting in financial returns for the operator and network security.

If I understand correctly, you've retired from a successful banking career, right? I'd assume you're enjoying your retirement years (perhaps even younger than most, thanks to your success). It's interesting to note that many people from your generation find it difficult to embrace crypto. For them, it may be too esoteric, complex, and intangible to accept. They tend to trust institutions, which, for the most part, have served them well throughout their lives. Their pensions were delivered as promised, and they feel well taken care of. As someone in my 30s, I'm nearly a digital native, and technology doesn't seem esoteric or byzantine to me. I anticipate technology's integration into every aspect of human life to accelerate at an unprecedented pace. When I consider banks and governments, I often wonder how and where they'll attempt to exploit middle-class individuals like me next. Having come of age around the 2008 financial crisis, I don't expect to benefit from a pension. Moreover, following the COVID-19 pandemic, my skepticism of the medical industrial complex and the corruption rampant within academia are at an all time high. My trust in societal institutions has understandably eroded. In my view, I'm on my own. I represent a generation that is gradually replacing yours, and for that reason, among the others, I believe crypto will not only endure but also transform finance in the same way the internet and software have transformed various aspects of society.
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  #3028  
Old 04-10-2023, 02:40 PM
raab raab is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ehrgeiz View Post
Thank you for the opportunity to discuss crypto. It's a quiet day at work in the private sector, and I love writing about this topic. I'm well down the rabbit hole, so strap in for a long one.

Bitcoin has now existed, persisted, and thrived for nearly 15 years. Are you familiar with the Lindy Effect? If Bitcoin were to fail based on your arguments, I think it would have done so already. Now, this isn't to say there aren't real risks to the network. It appears the US is currently attempting to restrict fiat on/off ramps and designate certain crypto protocols as securities, posing issues for investors due to the inherently non-compliant design. This creates a barrier to institutional holding. As we saw with the convoy protest, governments cutting off financial services to dissident citizens is real and likely to be used again when needed. As "money" becomes increasingly digital, this will be the tactic of choice since it is effective, invisible, and non-violent. Most concerning is that technology is enabling an unprecedented level of centralized control over citizens.

I personally view Bitcoin and Ethereum as the light against the encroaching darkness. It's possible they could become illegal in Western "democracies" due to the threat they pose. This innovation is not unlike the printing press, with the potential to sever the government's unilateral control of monetary policy, similar to how church and state were separated. It's like a doctrine of three kingdoms, if you will, a technology empowering individual rights even further. When I invest and participate in specific crypto protocols, I see it as shaping the future I want for myself and my children. With that said, let's address your practical points.

Tangibility and purpose. Bitcoin's core innovation is eliminating the need for a trusted intermediary in financial settlement. It also greatly accelerates settlement speed (although no L1 protocol can currently scale to world-level volume, but that's another technical tangent). Other critical innovations include permissionless and decentralized systems. I can transfer value to anyone worldwide with an internet connection, without interference from any sovereign force or sanctions. The ability to freely transact with any other human is, in my opinion, a fundamental right. Denying the value of these innovations would be hypocritical, as they resemble the profitable service banks provide: a system of trust. However, banks have many rules, conditions, and corruptible administrators ultimately beholden to the sovereign, not the individual. If all computers stopped working one day, a failed crypto asset would be the least of our worries. If you're preparing for that future, I'd suggest guns, ammo, and cattle – not bad holdings, honestly!

Energy consumption. Often the final argument against Bitcoin, but let me address your concern. If you genuinely object to its energy use and not just as an excuse, I have great news! As of September 15, 2022, Ethereum successfully merged to the beacon chain through consensus, replacing the Proof of Work mining protocol with Proof of Stake, reducing energy consumption to a tiny fraction. It now uses around 2,600,000 kWh, roughly equivalent to powering 360 homes – not bad at all. I'm still a proponent of Bitcoin's PoW protocol. Energy use and conservation are not binary; energy generation often results in waste because it cannot easily be transported and stored when needed. Enter Bitcoin – a perfect economic battery and balancer. Excess electrical generation can be converted into hash power, resulting in financial returns for the operator and network security.

If I understand correctly, you've retired from a successful banking career, right? I'd assume you're enjoying your retirement years (perhaps even younger than most, thanks to your success). It's interesting to note that many people from your generation find it difficult to embrace crypto. For them, it may be too esoteric, complex, and intangible to accept. They tend to trust institutions, which, for the most part, have served them well throughout their lives. Their pensions were delivered as promised, and they feel well taken care of. As someone in my 30s, I'm nearly a digital native, and technology doesn't seem esoteric or byzantine to me. I anticipate technology's integration into every aspect of human life to accelerate at an unprecedented pace. When I consider banks and governments, I often wonder how and where they'll attempt to exploit middle-class individuals like me next. Having come of age around the 2008 financial crisis, I don't expect to benefit from a pension. Moreover, following the COVID-19 pandemic, my skepticism of the medical industrial complex and the corruption rampant within academia are at an all time high. My trust in societal institutions has understandably eroded. In my view, I'm on my own. I represent a generation that is gradually replacing yours, and for that reason, among the others, I believe crypto will not only endure but also transform finance in the same way the internet and software have transformed various aspects of society.
You’re not alone, also in my 30’s and also sick of an overbearing government.

Edit: To tell you how fed up I am for the last 15 years I’ve basically paid 30,000 a year in taxes. So $450,000 over the last 15 years. What the hell am I getting for $30,000 a year?

Can’t get in to see a doctor on my days off, the roads are crap, rural Alberta has drug thugs stealing vehicles left and right. The only benefit I see is from the school system, although they seem to be going woke.

So 30,000 a year for schooling for my kids. The price of private schooling would be $500 a month, private insurance for healthcare would be similar. So there appears to be some overhead.
__________________
“If all mankind minus one, were of one opinion, and only one person were of the contrary opinion, mankind would be no more justified in silencing that one person, than he, if he had the power, would be justified in silencing mankind.” John Stuart Mill

Last edited by raab; 04-10-2023 at 02:55 PM.
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  #3029  
Old 04-10-2023, 04:03 PM
nelsonob1's Avatar
nelsonob1 nelsonob1 is offline
 
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Location: Nelson BC
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It's going to be interesting to see what the commercial real estate segment does over the next year. Some big exposure for the smaller credit unions.
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  #3030  
Old 04-10-2023, 04:53 PM
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Dean2 Dean2 is online now
 
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Location: Near Edmonton
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Ehrgeiz

You make the common assumption so many do when guys my age say Crypto is a scam. You just assume our addled old brains can't wrap themselves around Crypto currency. It might surprise you to know that one of my jobs back in 2010 was to investigate, study and make recommendations on adopting Blockchain as a new payment rail within the Canadian Banking system. I spent two years working on that as just one element of the larger transition to the digital capture of all payments and the image capture of cheques. Blockchain and its ledger contruct was not sufficiently developed then to be a viable high volume settlement rail. Ten years later it is just developing the ability to handle large volumes efficiently.

Crypto is an offshoot of Blockchain. I understand it far better than most of you 20 and 30 year olds. That is exactly how I formed my opinion of it.

The one part you do have right is you can transact without the need for a trusted third party validation and thus it does represent an ability to bypass government, the traditional banking system etc. That is exactly what criminals LOVE about crypto, and they are not the least concerned by the wild fluctuations in the value of their crypto holdings. No tax saves 50%, not getting caught laundering or having to pay to launder money saves another 20-30% in fees they paid to launder funds so whatever crypto does, unless it goes completely to zero, is fine by them. The Cartels and large crime syndicates have been large contributors to the development of crypto for exactly those reasons. That however is a very specific set of requirements: the average investor is NOT well served by a currency that is completely unregulated, open to multiple scams, hacks and other abuse and fluctuates wildly in value.

Yes you younger guys will eventually replace all us old folks, but you will also learn some hard lessons along the way because you think the rules are different and all the old paradigms no longer apply. I don't trust government much either, and even less the huge companies that are becoming world pervasive, but there are better ways to protect yourself than signing up for a pyramid scheme.
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