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  #241  
Old 05-29-2020, 12:12 PM
slough shark slough shark is offline
 
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My take on this is this is here to stay and until we have an effective treatment the best we can hope for is minimizing exposure to older people as that is who it hits overwhelmingly. It will hit the developed world harder than the rest of the world no matter what we do as we have a much higher segment of older people than most countries in the second or 3rd world. Those are the cold hard facts, the only reason why a country like Brazil for instance will have many deaths is due to the fact that most people will have been exposed probably in fairly short order. The second wave then the 3rd etc... are coming and we will probably all catch it at some point, all we can really hope for is that an effective treatment is found soon, we canít lock down the world forever
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  #242  
Old 05-29-2020, 01:42 PM
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CBintheNorth CBintheNorth is offline
 
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I think people need to remember that the goal of locking stuff down wasn't to prevent anyone from getting the virus, it was to prevent everyone getting it at once.
Just like SARS, I don't think a vaccine or cure is coming.
I also believe everyone will eventually get it. Those who will survive it will, and those who will succumb, will.
But we really needed to make sure the hospitals could help those who could be helped.
Having said that, I asked my B.I.L. (who is a fairly prominent figure in a local hospital) if the current number of cases shot up by 20x, would that overwhelm the hospitals? He said, "that would be 1,000 hospitalized and 140 in ICU. We'd deal with it fine even if there was a 30x increase."
That should put most at ease about this dreaded "second wave" that's supposedly coming. Well, except for the elderly and vulnerable, which is who we should have been focussing on this whole time it turns out.
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  #243  
Old 05-29-2020, 03:13 PM
ward ward is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CBintheNorth View Post
I think people need to remember that the goal of locking stuff down wasn't to prevent anyone from getting the virus, it was to prevent everyone getting it at once.
Just like SARS, I don't think a vaccine or cure is coming.
I also believe everyone will eventually get it. Those who will survive it will, and those who will succumb, will.
But we really needed to make sure the hospitals could help those who could be helped.
Having said that, I asked my B.I.L. (who is a fairly prominent figure in a local hospital) if the current number of cases shot up by 20x, would that overwhelm the hospitals? He said, "that would be 1,000 hospitalized and 140 in ICU. We'd deal with it fine even if there was a 30x increase."
That should put most at ease about this dreaded "second wave" that's supposedly coming. Well, except for the elderly and vulnerable, which is who we should have been focussing on this whole time it turns out.
Itís good to hear they are prepared.
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  #244  
Old 05-30-2020, 04:46 PM
glen moa glen moa is offline
 
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Does anyone have the numbers for deaths in 2019 vs 2020 in April or March.
For anywhere we can compare. Maybe go back a few years. This might be the best way to see covid19ís impact.
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  #245  
Old 05-30-2020, 05:18 PM
Glion Glion is offline
 
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Originally Posted by glen moa View Post
Does anyone have the numbers for deaths in 2019 vs 2020 in April or March.
For anywhere we can compare. Maybe go back a few years. This might be the best way to see covid19ís impact.
I thought I heard on the news early may that feb march april were lower than the running avg in Canada
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  #246  
Old 05-30-2020, 08:52 PM
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buckbrush buckbrush is offline
 
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I thought I heard on the news early may that feb march april were lower than the running avg in Canada
The deaths for the first quarter were lower than they were in 2019.

I don't think that says much at all though, since there was only 100 deaths from Covid in Canada by the end of March.

It will be interesting to see in the end. As well as numbers of car accidents and work place injuries/deaths. I'd bet both of those will be considerably lower with the lock down.
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  #247  
Old 05-30-2020, 08:57 PM
glen moa glen moa is offline
 
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Yes great points. Some lockdowns seem like overkill.
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  #248  
Old 05-31-2020, 01:27 PM
HVA7mm HVA7mm is offline
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Edmonton
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glen moa View Post
Does anyone have the numbers for deaths in 2019 vs 2020 in April or March.
For anywhere we can compare. Maybe go back a few years. This might be the best way to see covid19ís impact.
I found the following information on the stats Canada website, and narrowed it down to the death stats for Albera, BC, Ontario and Quebec for the year 2018.

So at 143 COVID-19 deaths in Alberta, and around 7300 COVID-19 deaths across Canada, I think that we are doing okay thus far. If we can do our part to prevent the spread to our vulnerable population in nursing homes across Canada, we should be able to do really well.

Alberta: 2000-2600 deaths/month in 2018, 25990 total deaths for the year 2018

BC: 3000-3800 deaths/month in 2018, 38463 total deaths for the year 2018

Ontario: 8000-11000 deaths/month in 2018, 106991 total deaths for the year 2018

Quebec: 5000-7200 deaths/month in 2018, 67216 total deaths for the year 2018

The link below is a StatsCan chart for deaths by month for all of Canada, from 2014 to 2018. You can break it down province by province, year by year using the filters.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1310070801
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  #249  
Old 06-01-2020, 10:26 AM
HVA7mm HVA7mm is offline
 
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Location: Edmonton
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Default New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says

Reuters:
The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday. "In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy," said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy's coronavirus contagion. "The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago," he told RAI television. Italy has the third highest death toll in the world from COVID-19, with 33,415 people dying since the outbreak came to light on Feb. 21. It has the sixth highest global tally of cases at 233,019.

However new infections and fatalities have fallen steadily in May and the country is unwinding some of the most rigid lockdown restrictions introduced anywhere on the continent. Zangrillo said some experts were too alarmist about the prospect of a second wave of infections and politicians needed to take into account the new reality. "We've got to get back to being a normal country," he said. "Someone has to take responsibility for terrorizing the country." The government urged caution, saying it was far too soon to claim victory.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2370OQ
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