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  #3091  
Old 05-26-2023, 11:02 AM
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Update to the list I started posting back in mid 2021, sorted for 3 year performance, but it also shows shorter and longer results. The big covid dip happened in march 2020. You may want to look at the 5 year return to see pre and post Covid comparison.

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  #3092  
Old 05-26-2023, 12:02 PM
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I’m surprised ZIM isn’t in there.
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  #3093  
Old 05-26-2023, 02:59 PM
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This is opposite of my views, I've learned from past "missed" opportunities to capitalize on future investment.
This times 2!
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  #3094  
Old 05-26-2023, 03:05 PM
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Got a couple of PMs so will answer so all can see. The chart just above does NOT include the dividends or growth therefrom if you have them in a drip program. Most of the shares on the list above pay between 4 and 7.5% dividend per year at current prices. Thus, the dividend will provide a 40% to 75% return over 10 years, not counting dividend increases or any compounding due to re-investment Thus, that return is over and above the return reflected above.

The return on the index funds has no separate dividend, is is subsumed in the ETF, so that return is all in.

Map Maker, keep fishing buddy, but you are using the wrong bait.
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  #3095  
Old 05-29-2023, 08:26 AM
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ZIM update for this morning. Since May 1 it has dropped from 17.50 to $13.75, and was 21.65 April 14th this year. It was $40 this time last year. That is a Big Drop in A short Time.

This has been a very interesting stock to watch. The price movements and dividend history are very unusual. I have no idea what is driving the price up and down because it isn't based on fundamentals. I get the price coming down some as the dividend has abated and the very high shipping fees of Covid come back to normal but the latest share price performance is being driven by something else. If the financials are accurate this should be a pretty stable stock, so obviously something else is causing the moves.

What this particular stock tells you is, financial reporting isn't everything. You need to understand the company and what drives its value before buying the stock. This is precisely why investing in China is so risky. Not only is the financial reporting highly suspect, and poorly controlled, you have a government that has often demonstrated a willingness to step in and wipe out a huge and successful company.

I have said more than once that I consider diversification outside Canada and the U.S. to be very risky. Even the EU, a person needs a lot of information not easily obtained through regular channels here, to invest successfully in those economies.

Just some thoughts as I watch the market this morning.
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  #3096  
Old 05-29-2023, 11:31 AM
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Short sellers. Short sellers are driving this stock down. Last few days, the was a shortage of shares to buy for them, I was reading somewhere…
As for the fundamentals, I think that in todays markets it isn’t as important as sentiments… Look at Nvidia, the valuations and the share prices are simply stupid but the sentiments are there and keep pushing it up and up and up…
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  #3097  
Old 06-07-2023, 08:21 AM
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Bank of Canada increased their benchmark rate .25% to 4.75%. With both Federal and Provincial Governments continuing to spend beyond our means, which is clearly inflationary, the Bank of Canada is left with one and only one, lever to pull to get inflation back into the 2% target range. They will keep raising the interest rate until such time as they throttle the economy enough, and make Government debt expensive enough, to accomplish that.

Anyone who is counting on interest rates coming down to save them come mortgage renewal time needs to rethink their strategy. Anyone who still has floating rate debt needs to really look at what will happen in the next 3 years, particularly with inflation still running really hot. Like I said well over two years ago, pay down as much non-deductible debt as you possibly can. For deductible debt, make sure the revenue stream can accommodate much higher borrowing costs well before it becomes a problem.

The government can and will screw over the the entire tax paying public to keep spending lavishly. County of Sturgeon promised "Only" a 2.9% property tax hike, problem is the assessed values are going up at the same time so you end up with a 10% tax hike. That means your property taxes double every 7 years. This despite the population of the County having been exactly the same for the last ten years, and County tax revenues literally tripling in the last 6 years due to large Industrial developments like Heartland Petro Chemical. Governments appetite to spend is insatiable.

Anyone looking at retiring in the next 5 years has to build in much higher inflation expectations than most retirement planning model software typically suggests. Failure to do so will result in some nasty surprises 10 years down the road. Best of luck to all.
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  #3098  
Old 06-07-2023, 08:39 AM
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The next BOC rate announcement is July 12 and then September. Also I believe the jobs stats should be out shortly.

So much for Macklem's June prediction of a 3% inflation rate. I bet Trudeau can't wait until the House takes their Summer break!!
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  #3099  
Old 06-07-2023, 10:23 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean2 View Post
Bank of Canada increased their benchmark rate .25% to 4.75%. With both Federal and Provincial Governments continuing to spend beyond our means, which is clearly inflationary, the Bank of Canada is left with one and only one, lever to pull to get inflation back into the 2% target range. They will keep raising the interest rate until such time as they throttle the economy enough, and make Government debt expensive enough, to accomplish that.

Anyone who is counting on interest rates coming down to save them come mortgage renewal time needs to rethink their strategy. Anyone who still has floating rate debt needs to really look at what will happen in the next 3 years, particularly with inflation still running really hot. Like I said well over two years ago, pay down as much non-deductible debt as you possibly can. For deductible debt, make sure the revenue stream can accommodate much higher borrowing costs well before it becomes a problem.

The government can and will screw over the the entire tax paying public to keep spending lavishly. County of Sturgeon promised "Only" a 2.9% property tax hike, problem is the assessed values are going up at the same time so you end up with a 10% tax hike. That means your property taxes double every 7 years. This despite the population of the County having been exactly the same for the last ten years, and County tax revenues literally tripling in the last 6 years due to large Industrial developments like Heartland Petro Chemical. Governments appetite to spend is insatiable.

Anyone looking at retiring in the next 5 years has to build in much higher inflation expectations than most retirement planning model software typically suggests. Failure to do so will result in some nasty surprises 10 years down the road. Best of luck to all.
Agree 100%. Here is Lac Ste Anne fiasco office project. When many voted against the build in 2015 (during oil crash). Council still went ahead with the project. Now office building is condemned, slated for replacement……
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...lems-1.6853377
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  #3100  
Old 06-07-2023, 11:34 AM
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wow thanks for that

stupid county councillors

a school in dv is getting demolished for about the same thing

millions waste dollars down the drain
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  #3101  
Old 06-07-2023, 11:55 AM
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Default Bidding War

Yet there is still a bidding war on residential housing here in Calgary. I just witnessed this weekend that a house went over 110K asking price. Keep me wondering where are all these bidders are coming from. Speculators, Investors, money launderers
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  #3102  
Old 06-07-2023, 01:14 PM
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Originally Posted by igorot View Post
Yet there is still a bidding war on residential housing here in Calgary. I just witnessed this weekend that a house went over 110K asking price. Keep me wondering where are all these bidders are coming from. Speculators, Investors, money launderers
Probably Toronto or Vancouver… 5/7 house sold in the neighborhood buyers were from Toronto .
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  #3103  
Old 06-07-2023, 01:34 PM
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https://www.greaterfool.ca/wp-conten...led.jpg?x77405

Yikes….CIBC Prime +1% to CIBC Prime +5%. Effectively 11%. be. The rate on Matt’s outstanding LOC balance is travelling from prime +1% all the way to prime + 5%. On Wednesday morning that meant an effective rate of 11.7%. As of tomorrow at breakfast time, it will sit at two whiskers below 12%.
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  #3104  
Old 06-07-2023, 01:44 PM
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Originally Posted by lmtada View Post
https://www.greaterfool.ca/wp-conten...led.jpg?x77405

Yikes….CIBC Prime +1% to CIBC Prime +5%. Effectively 11%. be. The rate on Matt’s outstanding LOC balance is travelling from prime +1% all the way to prime + 5%. On Wednesday morning that meant an effective rate of 11.7%. As of tomorrow at breakfast time, it will sit at two whiskers below 12%.
Wow! I remember they offered a secured line of credit at prime plus 0,5%… I converted my mortgage when I had 6 years left on it into a secured line of credit and killed it in 4 years just because LOC didn’t have a compounding rate line the mortgage did….
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  #3105  
Old 06-07-2023, 01:45 PM
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Probably Toronto or Vancouver… 5/7 house sold in the neighborhood buyers were from Toronto .
That will explain why Calgary was voting in NDP….
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  #3106  
Old 06-07-2023, 02:00 PM
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That will explain why Calgary was voting in NDP….
Naah, In our area, we are still "The True South strong and free" not sure how long we can hold
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  #3107  
Old 06-07-2023, 02:08 PM
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Originally Posted by fishtank View Post
Probably Toronto or Vancouver… 5/7 house sold in the neighborhood buyers were from Toronto .
That is the buzz around, and they are saying homes are just being viewed thru video calls, and so are offers. . Maybe I am old school, but this process will not happen to me in my lifetime.
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  #3108  
Old 06-07-2023, 02:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lmtada View Post
https://www.greaterfool.ca/wp-conten...led.jpg?x77405

Yikes….CIBC Prime +1% to CIBC Prime +5%. Effectively 11%. be. The rate on Matt’s outstanding LOC balance is travelling from prime +1% all the way to prime + 5%. On Wednesday morning that meant an effective rate of 11.7%. As of tomorrow at breakfast time, it will sit at two whiskers below 12%.
That is a very large jump in rates, especially on a LOC, and I presume it is secured by real estate based on the current rate. His cost of borrowing has already gone up a lot with the rapid increase in prime rate, to add another 4% on top of that is usually telling the client we would like you to go away please. I would check the borrowing agreement, as well as the statement of Disclosure he got when he took the loan out, the Bank must provide these if he doesn't have them on hand, and see exactly what it says and the specifics around rate reviews and increases. I would then go down and talk to my local Branch Manager and find out EXACTLY why they have increased the rate so much. There has to be a rational based on current risk versus the risk at the time the agreement was signed. If the answer isn't good enough contest it, (this presumes the Borrowing Agreement actually allows the Bank to unilaterally increase the rate, that is not true in all cases, particularly with Land Secured consumer loans.) If they won't change their minds, shop for a new Bank.

This is what is on CIBC's banner page right now. As you can see there are no benefits for being Loyal. You can get much better deals hopping banks regularly than by staying. Did not used to be this way, there was a time when relationship and history meant something but those times are gone and at the rate Banks change staff now, I bet there is no one in your branch that even knows who you are. Sort of the same deal as Cell plans. WAY better prices for new clients than they will offer to existing.


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2 Automatic rebalancing of the line of credit component of your CIBC Home Power Plan may take up to 60 days and is subject to your maximum PLC rebalancing limit, as such term is defined in your CIBC Home Power Plan Agreement. The credit limit on the line of credit component of your CIBC Home Power Plan cannot exceed an approved percentage of the value of the property held as security for your CIBC Home Power Plan at time of application.

Last edited by Dean2; 06-07-2023 at 02:34 PM.
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  #3109  
Old 06-07-2023, 05:25 PM
ehrgeiz ehrgeiz is offline
 
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Originally Posted by lmtada View Post
Agree 100%. Here is Lac Ste Anne fiasco office project. When many voted against the build in 2015 (during oil crash). Council still went ahead with the project. Now office building is condemned, slated for replacement……
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...lems-1.6853377
The irony of a Municipality not being able to correctly permit/ inspect their own office so that it meets occupancy requirements is stunning.
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  #3110  
Old 06-07-2023, 05:50 PM
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The examples of screwed up government contracts is legion. The Edmonton Remand centre to this day has about 1/3 that can't be used due to structural issues, they used the same people to build the new cop shop across the street 4 years later. Same result, way behind schedule, ove budget and could not build the second story because the base structure couldn't take the weight. Grande Prairie Hospital was years behind schedule and millions over budget. The new bridge into Ft Sask needed to be redone 3 times because they messed it up the first two. That is just a short list from the last few years. There are hundreds more in Alberta alone. Government run is a euphemism for totally FUBAR.
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  #3111  
Old 06-07-2023, 07:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean2 View Post
The examples of screwed up government contracts is legion. The Edmonton Remand centre to this day has about 1/3 that can't be used due to structural issues, they used the same people to build the new cop shop across the street 4 years later. Same result, way behind schedule, ove budget and could not build the second story because the base structure couldn't take the weight. Grande Prairie Hospital was years behind schedule and millions over budget. The new bridge into Ft Sask needed to be redone 3 times because they messed it up the first two. That is just a short list from the last few years. There are hundreds more in Alberta alone. Government run is a euphemism for totally FUBAR.
Can you provide a source on that remand claim? I cannot find a single thing on it and I’m sure something of that magnitude would be newsworthy without question.

Also, Stuart Olson built the new remand (and was an Alberta Gov’t project), PCL built the cop shop (City of Edmonton project)

That GP Hospital was an absolute fiasco start to finish… know a guy who lost everything incl his mechanical company after Graham & the GoA stopped getting along and his bills stopped getting paid. Lot more stories like that too.

Here is hoping the Alberta Government gets their act together for the SW EDM hospital project.
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  #3112  
Old 06-07-2023, 08:45 PM
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https://edmontonjournal.com/news/loc...of-replacement


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...mpus-1.5218717

ONPA Arcitecture designed the Remand centre. This is there background. The company is now defunct and permanently closed.
See related images
PROJECTS 2
See related images
Edmonton New Remand Centre
See related images
Centennial Centre For Interdisciplinary Sciences (CCIS)
ONPA Architects
ONPA Architects is one of the largest and most established architectural firms in Alberta, having completed in excess of $3 billion in projects since 2000. Founded originally in 1960 as Wood and Gardener Architects, the firm has expanded through the years and today is managed by six partners. The firm’s reputation for stability and excellent service has grown out of ONPA’s history of success as both prime consultant and in joint venture.We strive at ONPA Architects to design buildings that create opportunities for people and their communities. With an approach that encompasses an experiential, functional, and environmental focus, we help clients create spaces that support functionality and enhance user experience.Applying innovative architectural design principles, and industry best practices, ONPA demonstrates an ongoing commitment to responsible economics. From large institutional environments to smaller creative spaces, ONPA has the capacity, experience, and reputationto create innovative and inspiring buildings that meet people’s needs and changes their lives.
COMPANY TYPE
Architecture / Design Firm
work: 780-482-4813

https://edmontonsun.com/2013/04/30/h...e-real-problem

Last edited by Dean2; 06-07-2023 at 08:59 PM.
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  #3113  
Old 06-07-2023, 08:54 PM
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All government projects should be built by Eagle Builders, on budget and schedule every time. And no, they aren't my employer. 🙂
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  #3114  
Old 06-07-2023, 10:34 PM
jstubbs jstubbs is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean2 View Post
https://edmontonjournal.com/news/loc...of-replacement


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...mpus-1.5218717

ONPA Arcitecture designed the Remand centre. This is there background. The company is now defunct and permanently closed.
See related images
PROJECTS 2
See related images
Edmonton New Remand Centre
See related images
Centennial Centre For Interdisciplinary Sciences (CCIS)
ONPA Architects
ONPA Architects is one of the largest and most established architectural firms in Alberta, having completed in excess of $3 billion in projects since 2000. Founded originally in 1960 as Wood and Gardener Architects, the firm has expanded through the years and today is managed by six partners. The firm’s reputation for stability and excellent service has grown out of ONPA’s history of success as both prime consultant and in joint venture.We strive at ONPA Architects to design buildings that create opportunities for people and their communities. With an approach that encompasses an experiential, functional, and environmental focus, we help clients create spaces that support functionality and enhance user experience.Applying innovative architectural design principles, and industry best practices, ONPA demonstrates an ongoing commitment to responsible economics. From large institutional environments to smaller creative spaces, ONPA has the capacity, experience, and reputationto create innovative and inspiring buildings that meet people’s needs and changes their lives.
COMPANY TYPE
Architecture / Design Firm
work: 780-482-4813

https://edmontonsun.com/2013/04/30/h...e-real-problem
Sounds more like they built the remand to have the ability to expand capacity in the future rather than structural issues? That link didn’t say anything otherwise aside from guards not liking the design

The roof issue on the cop shop was certainly a problem but again I don’t see really any correlation between that and the remand project because Teeple did the architectural work on the EPS NW job and not ONPA.

And yup, Eagle does nice precast stuff. They put up a lowrise near MacEwan Uni in Edm with pretty solid speed. Fun seeing it put together like legos practically.
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  #3115  
Old 06-08-2023, 06:02 AM
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Back to market stuff… I notice that FRU has been grinding down lower for some time. All oil and gas stocks have, but Fru a bit more so. Good buying opportunity?
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  #3116  
Old 06-08-2023, 08:16 AM
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Quote:
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Back to market stuff… I notice that FRU has been grinding down lower for some time. All oil and gas stocks have, but Fru a bit more so. Good buying opportunity?
Current dividend yield is 7.83%. Your view on whether this is a good entry point depends entirely on your forward view on Oil prices. Here is Royal Banks take on Freehold from a couple of days ago when it was trading at $14.22m now at $13.50. It aligns well with my view but as I have said many times before, Oil and Gas are declining industries so it is not a sector I favour for real long term holds. I do however currently have a significant position in FRU but it was acquired when it was trading in the 3 to 6 dollar range. Since the shares have gone up on average 300%, the position is larger than it normally would be, I am looking to trim it a lot at the 16 to 17 dollar range. Everyone has to assess the fit for their own risk tolerance and portfolio composition.

June 6, 2023

Freehold Royalties Ltd.

Highlights from the RBC Capital Markets Global Energy, Power and Infrastructure Conference

TSX: FRU | CAD 14.22 | Outperform | Price Target CAD 20.00

Sentiment: Neutral

Our view: We hosted Freehold Royalties at the 2023 Global Energy, Power, and Infrastructure Conference with David Spyker (President and CEO), Rob King (COO), and Matt Donohue (Manager, Investor Relations & Capital Markets) presenting. Management continues to emphasize a focus on improving operational sustainability and pursuing accretive M&A, balancing this with return of capital via the base dividend. We reiterate our Outperform rating and $20/share target price.

Details:

Balancing return of capital, debt reduction, and potential M&A. Freehold has prioritized a sustainable dividend targeting a 60% payout ratio at US$75/bbl WTI with the current dividend covered down to US$50/bbl. Management prefers to remain at the lower end of its target payout range with excess cash flow allocated to debt reduction and potential M&A. Freehold reviews its base dividend ($1.08/share) quarterly, though the team anticipates future dividend increases are likely to be tied to M&A.

Actively evaluating deals. Management remains focused on US M&A opportunities given higher relative capital investment, a larger opportunity set, mineral title land availability, and improved productivity/realized pricing relative to Canada. That said, the company noted elevated valuations with many competitors having transacted at implied returns trailing Freehold's hurdle rate. Management also noted some interest in gas opportunities in the US. In Canada, recent producer dispositions of non-core assets have opened the door for new acquirers to evaluate royalty financing.

Updates on the US, Canada. Freehold's US growth strategy continues to pay dividends with volumes sitting at roughly 5,000 boe/d; the US is often more choppy in delivering quarterly production growth given larger drilling programs, batching of wells, and timing from licence to production. The US is now 60-70% weighted to large investment grade payors on a revenue basis. Freehold noted production remains at roughly 10,000 boe/d in Canada, with the Clearwater and Spirit River gas expected to support modest growth in the coming years. Management provided a brief update on Alberta wildfires, noting roughly 20% of Canadian production was impacted to some degree through May 2023.

Focused on ESG. Freehold remains a net zero emitter by way of carbon credit purchases, but the company has also highlighted over 60% of its top 20 royalty payors have defined scope 1 & 2 reduction targets. The company released its latest sustainability report in January 2023 (note here).

Last edited by Dean2; 06-08-2023 at 08:28 AM.
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  #3117  
Old 06-08-2023, 09:59 AM
Fisherdan Fisherdan is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean2 View Post
Current dividend yield is 7.83%. Your view on whether this is a good entry point depends entirely on your forward view on Oil prices. Here is Royal Banks take on Freehold from a couple of days ago when it was trading at $14.22m now at $13.50. It aligns well with my view but as I have said many times before, Oil and Gas are declining industries so it is not a sector I favour for real long term holds. I do however currently have a significant position in FRU but it was acquired when it was trading in the 3 to 6 dollar range. Since the shares have gone up on average 300%, the position is larger than it normally would be, I am looking to trim it a lot at the 16 to 17 dollar range. Everyone has to assess the fit for their own risk tolerance
Thanks Dean. It might drop more, but $13 and almost 8% looks pretty good. If it goes back down to $6, we have much bigger problems!
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  #3118  
Old 06-11-2023, 09:46 AM
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Charlie putout a great newsletter this week. When you look at container shipping prices it isn't hard to see why ZIM has come off so much. The link has all the charts,which makes it easier to read but here is just the text for those that don't like clicking links.

The breakdown of assets by generation is also really interesting. Makes it pretty clear the Millennials telling the Boomers and their Gen X parents they don't know what they are doing and that the Millennials will show the world a better way, are not really living up to their own hype.

https://link.mail.beehiiv.com/ss/c/m...ZYYKj4EYGGz8_M

Hi everyone,
3 New Posts This Week...
-AI Exuberance - Signal or Noise Ep 4 (YouTube/Spotify/Apple)

-The Week in Charts (Video)

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The Week in Charts (6/11/23)

(Note: click here to read on the blog)

The most important charts and themes in markets and investing…
1) Here Come the Bulls
It's been a while, but the bulls are back in town.
Individual investors (AAII poll) haven't been this optimistic since November 2021, with Bulls outnumbering Bears by over 20%. The same is true for active managers, who reported net exposures of over 90%, up from 12% in late September (NAAIM survey).



Why the increased bullishness?
Stocks are going up, with the S&P 500 gaining nearly 24% from its October low, the biggest rally we've seen since the market peaked in January 2022.



It's counterintuitive, but investors get more excited as prices rise, the opposite of how shoppers behave. People rush to stores on Black Friday to take advantage of discounts, but when stocks are on sale many investors run for the exits.
2) Tearing Down the Wall of Worry
All is calm again in the equity market. The $VIX has moved down to 13.83, its lowest weekly close since February 7, 2020.



With the debt ceiling suspended, bank failure fears subsiding, the Fed expected to pause, and recession forecasts pushed out, the wall of worry that has persisted for over a year has finally been torn down.
Has complacency as measured by the $VIX been a problem for stocks in the past?
It doesn't appear to be. Looking out 1 to 5 years, average forward returns for the S&P 500 from the lowest 10% of $VIX levels (<12) were not only positive, but in many cases higher than the returns from all other $VIX levels (>12).



3) The Enormous Eight
Eight companies (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, Tesla and Nvidia) now make up 30% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization, up from 22% at the start of the year.



The reason for their growing influence: huge share price gains, with Enormous Eight members claiming the top 3 spots in the S&P 500 this year ($NVDA, $META, and $TSLA) and the remaining five all within the top 30, up at least 36%.



This is a remarkable comeback for big tech following the substantial declines in 2022. Leading the way is the bellwether Apple, back at an all-time high for the first time since January 2022, recovering from a 31% drawdown (total returns, including dividends).



Meanwhile, the average stock in the index is not faring nearly as well. This has led to the cap-weighted S&P 500 outperforming the equally-weighted S&P 500 by over 10%, the largest spread on record at this point in the year with data going back to 1990.



4) The Sky's the Limit
With the debt ceiling suspended, the US government went back to doing what it does best: borrowing money. The National Debt immediately increased $358 billion, the largest one-day spike in history. We should soon see $32 trillion.



The cost of insuring US debt against default collapsed after the agreement, with 1-year CDS spreads moving from a peak of 157 bps down to 11 bps.



And the wild action in Treasury bills quickly normalized, with the 1-month Treasury bills moving from a yield of over 6% down to 5.25%.



5) June Pause, July Hike?
The Fed is set to meet again this week (June 14) and the market is currently expecting a pause (70% probability).



Surprisingly, though, the market is then expecting the Fed to hike again at the July meeting (70% probability).



While anything can happen, this scenario seems unlikely for the following reason: by the July meeting, the Fed will have in their hands the June CPI report, which is expected to show a significant decline (down to 3.3% according the Cleveland Fed's latest estimate). If the Fed is going to pause in June with a 4.1% inflation rate (the CPI estimate for May which will be released a day before the Fed meeting), why would they hike with a much lower rate?



Additionally, many important trends on the inflation front continue to move in the right direction:
• Global Container Freight Rates (cost of 40′ Containers) are lower today than they were in February 2020, down 88% from their peak.



• Fertilizer prices are back to January 2021 levels, down 64% from their peak.



• Market-based inflation expectations have moved down to 2.07%, their lowest level since January 2021 (5-year breakevens).



• Asking rents in the US are down 0.6% over the last year, the largest decline since early 2020.



• The Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index is down 1.2% over the last year, the first YoY decline since 2012. 10 out of the 20 cities in the index are down over the last year.



6) IO Troubles
Interest-only loans as a % of new commercial mortgage-backed securities increased from 17% in 2010 to 88% in 2021.



Typically these IO loans are paid back through refinancing or the sale of the property. But today, both of those options are becoming increasingly difficult, particularly in the office market. As a result, CMBS spreads continue to widen, now over 1,100 bps for BBBs.



With an estimated $1.5 trillion in commercial mortgage loans coming due over the next 3 years, we're still in the early innings of the default cycle.
7) Highest Stock Ownership since 2008
Stock ownership in the US is on the rise. 61% of people reported owning stocks in the latest Gallup poll, the highest % since 2008. After the global financial crisis and stock market crash, we saw a decline in ownership for a number of years, but that trend is now moving in the opposite direction.



The most predictive factor when it comes to owning stock? Incomes. The higher your household income, the more likely you are to own stocks.



8) The Jobs Comeback Continues
We now have 29 consecutive months of jobs growth in the US, with a big beat in the latest payroll report (339k jobs added in May vs. 190k consensus estimate).



The labor force participation rate among 25-54 year-olds (prime working age) moved up to 83.4%, the highest we've seen since January 2007.



The gap between actual payrolls and the pre-covid trend (+1.5%/yr) narrowed again in May, but is still at 3.9 million.



This likely explains the continued strength in the labor market, with a 4 million spread between the # of job openings (10.1 million) and the # of unemployed (6.1 million).



But the tightest labor market in US history is slowly loosening, with the Quits Rate moving down to 2.4%, its lowest level since February 2021.



And hourly earnings were up 4.3%, the smallest YoY increase since July 2021.



While wage growth is slowing, that 4.3% increase is likely to slightly outpace May's inflation rate (4.1%). That would mark the first time YoY wage growth exceeds inflation in over two years. A welcome shift back on the path to prosperity that hopefully continues.
9) Some Interesting Stats
a) Brands with the highest reputation in the US...



b) The median and maximum range of EVs offered for sale in the US. Maximum range is up over 5x since 2011.



c) The companies that have generated the largest amounts of lifetime shareholder wealth in the US.



d) Auto brands with the highest inventory levels...



e) Breakdown in assets held by generation in the US...





And that’s it for this week. Have a great Sunday and week ahead!
-Charlie
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Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Read our full disclosures here.






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Last edited by Dean2; 06-11-2023 at 09:52 AM.
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  #3119  
Old 06-11-2023, 03:02 PM
roper1 roper1 is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Strathmore
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Thanks Dean, appreciate the informed info!
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You can, you should, & if you're brave enough to start, you will. Stephen King
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  #3120  
Old 06-14-2023, 12:05 PM
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Dean2 Dean2 is online now
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Near Edmonton
Posts: 15,045
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With inflation still running high, interest rates elevated and continuing to rise, and the cost of living already having gone up so much, there are a lot of people getting into side jobs to make ends meet. Whether it is house cleaning, window washing, handyman and yard work, lawn services, or whatever, the number of people advertising has grown a lot. Makes sense since they can get around 30-50 bucks an hour for basically unskilled work.

What I have found however is a great number of them have no WCB coverage. That means if they are hurt working for you, whether on your property or not, you have unlimited liability for their injuries or death. It is easy to get a WCB coverage letter, and I ALWAYS ask for a coverage letter or their WCB coverage number and check. I feel for people trying to make ends meet, but there is no way I am going to expose myself to the huge liability that comes with hiring workers or contractors with no coverage. You could literally lose everything you own. You can also bet that if they have no WCB, they don't have any insurance to cover damages they do to your property. While not as big a risk as no WCB it is still something to consider.

This link will allow you to check WCB coverage on anyone doing work for you.

https://decc.wcb.ab.ca/Clearance/RequestClearance.aspx

Quote:
9912 – 107 Street
PO Box 2415
Edmonton AB T5J 2S5
Email: ebusiness.support@wcb.ab.ca
Tel: (780) 498-3999 (1-866-922-9221)
Fax: (780) 498-7999
WCB website: www.wcb.ab.ca
SIGN UP FOR ONLINE SERVICES - GO TO MY.WCB.AB.CA

June 14, 2023
Reference Number:
PERSONAL

Dear Sir or Madam:
Re: SHINE ABOVE INC.
11511 160 ST NW
EDMONTON AB T5M 3V9

The above named subcontractor has an account with WCB-Alberta in the following industry(ies):
account trade names(s)/industry effective date coverage
9244463
Janitorial/Cleaning Services Mar 30, 2021

worker coverage

no personal coverage

Thank you for checking into the status of this contractor or subcontractor. Under Section 126 of the
Workers' Compensation Act, you are responsible for obtaining a clearance on your contractor or
subcontractor, in order to release you from any liability for unpaid WCB premiums owed by them. Please
ensure clearance has been issued in the correct name and that there is coverage in the industry(ies) for
which work was performed.
Please accept this letter as a clearance for work completed between the effective date of the account and
the date of this letter. For this account, you are cleared of any liability under Section 126 of the Workers'
Compensation Act up to the date of this letter. Any holdback may be released for contracts completed,
and/or for work completed to the date of this letter. For an account that shows closed under the effective
date, the clearance is only valid for work completed up to the close date. If work has not started, obtain a
clearance prior to releasing final payment.
Please note, if any directors of the corporation are injured at work, you are protected from lawsuit if they
have personal coverage. If they do not have personal coverage, you may not be protected in the case of a
workplace injury.

If your contractor or subcontractor is performing work outside Alberta, contact the WCB in that jurisdiction
to determine your clearance and any other WCB requirements.
Any alteration of this document is strictly prohibited.
Yours truly,
eBusiness Support Team (1418497

Last edited by Dean2; 06-14-2023 at 12:31 PM.
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