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  #721  
Old 03-16-2020, 04:17 AM
KinAlberta KinAlberta is offline
 
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Great old article:


”Until sometime after World War II, all substantial economic downturns, ....were referred to as "depressions." ”


Quote:

When Does a Depression or a Recession End?
RICHARD A. POSNER
AUGUST 1, 2009

A recession is when your neighbor loses his job; a depression is when you lose your job. ...

Until sometime after World War II, all substantial economic downturns, of which there had been many, were referred to as "depressions." The 1930s depression was the gravest, at least in modern times, and so came to be called the Great Depression. Oddly, when that happened, lesser depressions, past and future, became labeled (or relabeled, in the case of the earlier depressions) "recessions.

...

What is more interesting and important is how the media and the economics profession define a recession. (There is no accepted definition of a depression any more, except "comparable to the Great Depression.") The media define it as...

https://www.theatlantic.com/business...ion-end/22544/

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  #722  
Old 03-16-2020, 04:24 AM
KinAlberta KinAlberta is offline
 
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Originally Posted by pikeman06 View Post
Really gotta feel for the folks about to retire or just starting retirement. Property in some areas is not selling and if it is the sellers are taking a hit. Rrsp are beat down to almost half in some cases. I suppose if one was to try to pull it out they would nail you with the tax? That money has already been taxed to death. I have some employer Rrsp and pension that are down 40 percent this month. Glad I pulled out when I did and now sittin on a nice stack of cash but certainly not gloating about it. I've lost before too that's what makes a guy a little gun shy. Hope it all works out but not looking overly promising.
Good on you for being in cash. The world needs more people having more intelligence than greed. A couple years ago we handed most of our savings over to the fund managers so some day we’ll have to check to see what’s happened. Literally we haven’t looked in weeks. It is what it is and we’ll ride it out.

We did though have an amazing 10 year run. So a dip was inevitable. The virus will create all kinds of pent up demand for stuff and the economy will recover. Cheap oil will put billions of dollars into the hands of those most likely to spend it vs invest it. That’s a good thing because a whole lot of the gains over the past decade have been captured by the very wealthy.

As an aside, I’ve long said that it seems banks and markets blow up about every ten years. We’re a couple years behind so we’ll see how this shakeup impacts the banking world.

Last edited by KinAlberta; 03-16-2020 at 04:29 AM.
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  #723  
Old 03-16-2020, 05:27 AM
Buckhead Buckhead is offline
 
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Originally Posted by KinAlberta View Post

As an aside, I’ve long said that it seems banks and markets blow up about every ten years. We’re a couple years behind so we’ll see how this shakeup impacts the banking world.
That is the unknown part. Governments may print so much money out of thin air, apply QE and lower interest rates into negative territory in an effort to contain a massive banking failure that they trigger hyperinflation.
If that happens - all bets are off. Even cash will become worthless.

There is some other agenda at play here aside from the Coronavirus. We are getting awfully close to that tipping point. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Last edited by Buckhead; 03-16-2020 at 05:35 AM.
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  #724  
Old 03-16-2020, 06:16 AM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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All this cheap money... gold and silver platinum are way down. Folks need to get ready for some big inflations in the near future.
Tvix spike 50% I think they have enter panic mode .
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  #725  
Old 03-16-2020, 06:31 AM
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Justfishin73 Justfishin73 is offline
 
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Have a feeling today may be the worst yet. Limit down within minutes I'm guessing.
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  #726  
Old 03-16-2020, 06:37 AM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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Butterflies in my stomach waiting for market opening ...tvix up 56% premarket
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  #727  
Old 03-16-2020, 06:48 AM
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Originally Posted by fishtank View Post
Butterflies in my stomach waiting for market opening ...tvix up 56% premarket
Index Etfs are indicating around -10% at open.
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  #728  
Old 03-16-2020, 06:54 AM
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Limits tripping all day, Dow will be down 2000 or more I'm thinking, bloodbath will be an understatement....
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  #729  
Old 03-16-2020, 06:58 AM
Jim Blake Jim Blake is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Justfishin73 View Post
Have a feeling today may be the worst yet. Limit down within minutes I'm guessing.
I guess the way the Overseas Markets are behaving would be a good clue as to what we are going to see today.
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  #730  
Old 03-16-2020, 07:03 AM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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Index Etfs are indicating around -10% at open.
Tvix the ticker for TVIX - VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short-Term ETN
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  #731  
Old 03-16-2020, 07:09 AM
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Tvix the ticker for TVIX - VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short-Term ETN
Thanks FT. I should have indicated stock index etf's on the SP500.
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  #732  
Old 03-16-2020, 07:26 AM
elkhunter11 elkhunter11 is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Justfishin73 View Post
Limits tripping all day, Dow will be down 2000 or more I'm thinking, bloodbath will be an understatement....
The moves by the feds will likely do exactly the opposite of what they intended.
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  #733  
Old 03-16-2020, 07:30 AM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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Originally Posted by elkhunter11 View Post
The moves by the feds will likely do exactly the opposite of what they intended.
They over compensated, led to more speculation and panic on what’s next , what do they have now for ammo.

Like a deer the market. They had 3 ammos they took all 3 shots ,while the deers was moving a missed completely it spook the deers now going to be a while before it calms down. Should have at least saved 1 ammo .

Last edited by fishtank; 03-16-2020 at 07:37 AM.
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  #734  
Old 03-16-2020, 07:39 AM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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Thumbs down

Market halted ... might as well shut it down completely and pull the plug . Yesterday praying didn’t work.
Dow down 2790 open. Might break below the 20000

Last edited by fishtank; 03-16-2020 at 07:48 AM.
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  #735  
Old 03-16-2020, 07:45 AM
elkhunter11 elkhunter11 is offline
 
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The feds need to resist the temptation to interfere, and stop adding to the panick.
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  #736  
Old 03-16-2020, 07:49 AM
Buckhead Buckhead is offline
 
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The markets discount the future. The Fed is making preemptive strikes.
Regardless of their logic, it is a futile gesture. It does nothing to help Joe consumer at this point. All it does is increase bank profits.
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  #737  
Old 03-16-2020, 07:57 AM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Buckhead View Post
The markets discount the future. The Fed is making preemptive strikes.
Regardless of their logic, it is a futile gesture. It does nothing to help Joe consumer at this point. All it does is increase bank profits.
And making sure the big companies debt get paid and service and access to cheap liquidity , last thing it needs is defaults and let that bubble pop . See chinas situation lots more defaults on debt by big builders .
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  #738  
Old 03-16-2020, 08:12 AM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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Talking Fun facts

At current oil price Saudi Aramco need 2.5 billion barrel to paid its dividend of $75 billion.
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  #739  
Old 03-16-2020, 08:28 AM
robfraser robfraser is offline
 
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Originally Posted by fishtank View Post
At current oil price Saudi Aramco need 2.5 billion barrel to paid its dividend of $75 billion.
The Saudis will be making a killing on their shorts.
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  #740  
Old 03-16-2020, 08:38 AM
ganderblaster ganderblaster is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Buckhead View Post
That is the unknown part. Governments may print so much money out of thin air, apply QE and lower interest rates into negative territory in an effort to contain a massive banking failure that they trigger hyperinflation.
If that happens - all bets are off. Even cash will become worthless.

There is some other agenda at play here aside from the Coronavirus. We are getting awfully close to that tipping point. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
I agree.
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  #741  
Old 03-16-2020, 08:49 AM
Buckhead Buckhead is offline
 
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Originally Posted by fishtank View Post
And making sure the big companies debt get paid and service and access to cheap liquidity , last thing it needs is defaults and let that bubble pop . See chinas situation lots more defaults on debt by big builders .
As long as we are having this trainwreck I wouldn't mind seeing a few defaults and some companies go under. They have had access to cheap liquidity for a decade and have done nothing but engage in share buybacks. That's not a good long term business model.
That is not generating any wealth for the future - just propping up the share price.
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  #742  
Old 03-16-2020, 08:51 AM
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Twisted Canuck Twisted Canuck is offline
 
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Well, if interests rates head into the negative, just think how much a person could leverage getting back into the game with all that cheap, accessible $....markets are going to be low low low, you know the temptation is going to be dangling there for many.

What could possibly go wrong?

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  #743  
Old 03-16-2020, 09:04 AM
Buckhead Buckhead is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Twisted Canuck View Post
Well, if interests rates head into the negative, just think how much a person could leverage getting back into the game with all that cheap, accessible $....markets are going to be low low low, you know the temptation is going to be dangling there for many.

What could possibly go wrong?

I'm not sure how that scenario would end. But if that's the scenario that plays out I will probably be one of the first in. One more roll of the dice before I am done.. No one gets to take it with them, in any event.
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  #744  
Old 03-16-2020, 09:28 AM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Buckhead View Post
As long as we are having this trainwreck I wouldn't mind seeing a few defaults and some companies go under. They have had access to cheap liquidity for a decade and have done nothing but engage in share buybacks. That's not a good long term business model.
That is not generating any wealth for the future - just propping up the share price.
Well it’s sort like paying off a credit card with another credit card , there going to be a problem if you ran out of credit card, lender will take what ever it can get with all this free money .. kind of like this hi would you like to refinance your 8% debt (plus interests) in to our new 7% ... so on til as long as the bank still make a profit and milk them dry and have to renegotiate .
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  #745  
Old 03-16-2020, 09:54 AM
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Well I bought back in. Im betting on humanity, and Remdesivir. We'll see what happens. I also think the world governments are going to come out with helicopter money to help people get through the dip here as things are shut down. Also plan on holding long term. This is what I bought this morning for anyone interested TRP 40%, XOM 40%, KEY10%. We'll see what happens, could have been to early, but I think 10 years from now these are companies Im happy with. The percentages are based on what I had in cash and not my portfolio as a whole. I also have a major stake in GILD.
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  #746  
Old 03-16-2020, 10:10 AM
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Twisted Canuck Twisted Canuck is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Buckhead View Post
I'm not sure how that scenario would end. But if that's the scenario that plays out I will probably be one of the first in. One more roll of the dice before I am done.. No one gets to take it with them, in any event.
True....but I always feel more comfortable playing with my own money, not somebody else's money.....I only have two knees to break, and I need them for walking.

But it is tempting.
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  #747  
Old 03-16-2020, 10:17 AM
raab raab is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Twisted Canuck View Post
True....but I always feel more comfortable playing with my own money, not somebody else's money.....I only have two knees to break, and I need them for walking.

But it is tempting.
You sleep a lot better at night when you don't have to worry about paying back a loan. Ive met a lot of 70 year olds working because they've borrowed to invest, then lost it. If your going to leverage against anything it should be things you control like your house, or a small business. In saying that if you can get those paid off quickly and be totally debt free. Thats what most of the guru's recommend. People like Warren Buffett, Mark Cuban, Dave Ramsey, etc...
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  #748  
Old 03-16-2020, 10:19 AM
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Justfishin73 Justfishin73 is offline
 
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Originally Posted by raab View Post
Well I bought back in. Im betting on humanity, and Remdesivir. We'll see what happens. I also think the world governments are going to come out with helicopter money to help people get through the dip here as things are shut down. Also plan on holding long term. This is what I bought this morning for anyone interested TRP 40%, XOM 40%, KEY10%. We'll see what happens, could have been to early, but I think 10 years from now these are companies Im happy with. The percentages are based on what I had in cash and not my portfolio as a whole. I also have a major stake in GILD.
That's a helluva bet, I'm not even thinking of getting back in yet
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  #749  
Old 03-16-2020, 10:35 AM
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Originally Posted by raab View Post
Well I bought back in. Im betting on humanity, and Remdesivir. We'll see what happens. I also think the world governments are going to come out with helicopter money to help people get through the dip here as things are shut down. Also plan on holding long term. This is what I bought this morning for anyone interested TRP 40%, XOM 40%, KEY10%. We'll see what happens, could have been to early, but I think 10 years from now these are companies Im happy with. The percentages are based on what I had in cash and not my portfolio as a whole. I also have a major stake in GILD.
It does my heart good to finally see an optimist. Good luck.
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  #750  
Old 03-16-2020, 10:37 AM
raab raab is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Justfishin73 View Post
That's a helluva bet, I'm not even thinking of getting back in yet
Long term, I don't see anyway oil prices haven't recovered. And I feel TRP is a relatively safe bet. Canadian Oil and Gas will be some of the cheapest in the world, and so I think TRP will be relatively busy. XOM will be selling to the help restock the SRP. Keyera was the one Im most worried about, but I took a small stake in them just to see what happens. Also worth noting I get paid dividends from all these companies while I wait for things to turn around.
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