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Old 10-27-2021, 10:01 AM
elkhunter11 elkhunter11 is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Dean2 View Post
I am glad I am heading out hunting for two weeks on Friday. Watching the gaggle of lying government MOFOs, from bank of Canada, to Freeland has got to the point where it is as bad as watching coverage of Covid. The fact that everyone knows they are lying through their teeth, and none of the mainstream media is calling them on it, is even worse. Inflation is ramping up, it is not transitory and the supply chain issues are not improving.

We already have 40% of Canadians saying they are having trouble covering their grocery bills. Over the winter this is going to get worse, and they are going to have rising costs of heat, electricity, gasoline, higher interest on their loans/mortgages and added inflation on everything else piled on top. Trudeau and his village of idiots is working very hard to makes Canada into another Venezuela.
And the people that elected them are totally oblivious to this and are waiting for handouts , they have no idea that any handouts won't even come close to offsetting the extra expenses that are coming. Things are going to get very tough for a lot of people, in the near future.
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  #1682  
Old 10-27-2021, 10:04 AM
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Twisted Canuck Twisted Canuck is offline
 
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C'mon Dean, why so negative? They are going to try the proven method of taxing us into prosperity! In conjunction with increasing the regulatory regimen for all industry (especially resource and energy), and discouraging all investment in the economy, we have a winning combination!

Venezuela indeed. Or Cuba. Where our PM's dad was the President for life.

Here is another good article from Forbes

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntam...tral-planning/
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  #1683  
Old 10-27-2021, 10:31 AM
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Dean2 Dean2 is offline
 
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Default H&R REIT restructure.

Went Over Announcement In Detail

The best I can say for this announcement is it doesn't harm H&R. It also does not materially improve the balance sheet, reduce debt or provide immediate improvement in anything else. All this does is segregate the assets into similar looking baskets and eliminates the diversification that was one of H&Rs historical strengths. Selling a bunch of the Alberta assets for above NAV is good, selling off the enclosed malls to generate cash to fund the redev rather than more borrowing is a good move but it means you reduce your rental stream for a long time before the redeveloped properties come on stream, and you loose the rental from them too while they are being re-developed.

People are WAY too enamoured of Dividends. I have no intentions of holding a REIT with a sub 5% distribution, and no capital appreciation in an environment where inflation is running officially at 5%, and in reality is far higher than that. If the asset base cannot support a much higher payout then it brings into question the NAV and the quality of management. My take on this, I am going to give it a few days but if it gets to $18, currently at $17, I am out of here and will put the money elsewhere. I don't really want to hang around for another two or three years while this plan comes together.

Quote:
H&R REIT Announces Transformational Strategic Repositioning Plan


/NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES. ANY FAILURE TO COMPLY WITH THIS RESTRICTION MAY CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF U.S. SECURITIES LAW./
Primaris Spin-Off, Exit Retail, Exit Office, Significant 12,700 Residential Unit Development Pipeline
TORONTO, Oct. 27, 2021 /CNW/ - H&R REIT ("H&R" or the "REIT") announces today its strategic repositioning plan to transform from a diversified REIT, into a simplified, growth-oriented REIT with increased multi-residential and industrial exposure surfacing value through its significant development pipeline. This follows H&R's previously announced sale of the Bow office tower and Bell office campus totalling $1.47 billion in gross proceeds.
To achieve this transformation, H&R will execute the following strategic repositioning initiatives:
(i) Tax-free spin-off (the "Spin-Off") of its Primaris properties including all of H&R's enclosed malls to a new stand-alone, publicly traded REIT ("Primaris") focused on owning and managing enclosed shopping centres in Canada.
(ii) Disposition of the following property groups (the "Strategic Dispositions"), synchronized to match capital funding requirements. The Strategic Dispositions are poised to generate gross proceeds of approximately $3.4 billion over time:
• Exit retail - sale of approximately $600 million of grocery-anchored and essential service retail and monetization of H&R's CDN $470 million equity interest in Echo Realty LP ("ECHO"); and
• Exit office - sale of approximately $2.3 billion of office properties with the remaining $1.4 billion to be held for redevelopment into Class A multi-residential and industrial redevelopments.
(iii) Reinvestment of proceeds generated from the Strategic Dispositions to fund H&R's significant multi-residential and industrial development pipeline and for select acquisitions, in prime locations in Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, and high-growth U.S. sunbelt and gateway cities.
"We are incredibly excited to announce our transformational strategic repositioning plan, providing a clear path forward to simplify H&R's business model and to create significant value and growth for unitholders," said Thomas Hofstedter, President & CEO of H&R REIT. "Our focus on Class A multi-residential and industrial properties surfaces value embedded in our existing portfolio through intensification and redevelopment and creates what we believe is a more compelling investment profile, streamlines our operating platform and enhances our financial flexibility."
"Over the past several years, H&R's Board of Trustees and management have executed on a number of initiatives aimed at repositioning the business to maximize unitholder value and better align with investor preferences", said Ronald Rutman, Chairman of the Board of H&R REIT. "The Spin-Off, combined with H&R's previously completed dispositions of the Bow office tower and Bell office campus mark recent significant milestones in the advancement of these initiatives. H&R will remain focused on executing the strategic repositioning plan with the objective of unlocking the value of its portfolio for unitholders."
STRATEGIC REPOSITIONING BENEFITS:
• Greater exposure to higher growth multi-residential and industrial assets, with reduced exposure to retail and office properties.
• Enhanced major market presence in the Greater Toronto Area and high-growth U.S. sunbelt and gateway cities and immediate reduction of Alberta exposure to 7% of investment properties post Spin-Off.
• Improved proforma balance sheet enhances financial flexibility to execute on growth while maintaining H&R's current investment grade credit rating.
• Upon completion of the Spin-Off, the combined annual distributions of H&R REIT and Primaris are anticipated to total $0.72, up 4.3% from the current $0.69 per H&R unit. H&R is anticipated to distribute $0.52 per annum while Primaris is anticipated to distribute $0.20 per annum.


Key Metrics June 30, 2021 Post Spin-Off
January 1, 2022 Impact
Reduce Calgary Office Exposure $1.1 billion $372.5 million √
Reduce Retail Exposure $4.0 billion $1.8 billion √
Improve Balance Sheet – Debt/EBITDA(2) 10.0x 9.5x √
Enhance Growth Profile – Same-Asset Property Operating
Income (Cash Basis)(2) 0.4%(1) 3.0% √
Conservative Payout Ratio as a % of FFO(2) 44.9% 40-50% √
Reduce Leverage – Debt to Total Assets(2) 50.0% 46.8% √
Improve borrower profile – Unencumbered/ Unsecured)(2)(3) 1.7x 2.0x √

(1) Six-year 2014-2020, Same Asset property operating income (cash basis) average.
(2) These are non-IFRS ratios, comprised of non-IFRS measures. See "non-IFRS Measures" below.
(3) Excludes ECHO.
H&R REIT STRATEGIC REPOSITIONING PLAN
• EXIT RETAIL THROUGH SPIN-OFF AND DISPOSITIONS:
• Primaris Spin-Off Transaction:

H&R intends to spin-off its enclosed mall portfolio and together with Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan ("HOOPP") create Primaris. Primaris will own interests in 35 properties with an appraised value of approximately $3.2 billion encompassing 11.4 million square feet of gross leasable area ("GLA"). H&R will contribute 27 properties with an appraised value of approximately $2.4 billion and HOOPP will contribute eight properties with an appraised value of approximately $0.8 billion. H&R's secured debt will be reduced by approximately $579 million for the outstanding mortgage balances on the Primaris properties. H&R has applied to the TSX for the listing of Primaris units on the TSX with the ticker PMZ.UN, following the expected closing in late December 2021 or early 2022. The listing will be subject to the TSX's customary listing approval requirements.
• Disposition of High-Quality Grocery-Anchored and Essential Service Retail Properties to Fund Developments:
• Retail Property Dispositions:

In aggregate, H&R's grocery-anchored and essential service retail portfolio includes 56 properties located primarily in Ontario, encompassing 2.8 million square feet of GLA which represent a fair value of approximately $600 million at June 30, 2021.

H&R's 33.6% ownership interest in ECHO Realty LP, a privately held real estate company with a portfolio of 237 grocery-anchored shopping centres primarily occupied by Giant Eagle, Inc., one of the largest supermarket chains in the United States. The portfolio encompasses 2.9 million square feet of GLA, and an equity ownership interest of approximately $470 million at June 30, 2021.
• EXIT OFFICE THROUGH DISPOSITIONS AND RE-DEVELOPMENT:
• Office Properties to be Sold to Fund Developments:

The office assets to be sold over time comprise 15 properties, encompassing 4.2 million square feet of GLA with a weighted average lease term of 9.5 years. These properties with an average occupancy rate of 99.5% are located in major urban markets with high-credit quality tenants, and represent a fair value of approximately $2.3 billion at Q2 2021.
• Office Properties held for Re-development into Class A Multi-Residential and Industrial Re-development:

12 office properties representing a fair value of approximately $1.4 billion at Q2 2021, encompassing 3.1 million square feet of GLA with intensification potential will be retained for redevelopment into multi-residential and industrial properties.
• FOCUS ON MULTI-RESIDENTIAL AND INDUSTRIAL

H&R expects to evaluate each potential development in the context of its capital allocation strategy, and may elect to pursue development on its own, with capital partners, or sell the developments with approvals in place, capturing much of the value creation.
• Reinvest Proceeds into Higher Growth Multi-Residential and Industrial:
• Proceeds generated from the Strategic Dispositions will be redeployed into development of Class A multi-residential and industrial properties, in prime locations in Canada, and high growth sunbelt and gateway cities in the United States. The total pipeline is comprised of approximately 12,700 residential units and 3.2 million square feet of industrial GLA. The execution of these developments within H&R's multi-residential and industrial development pipeline is poised to drive earnings and NAV growth.
Planned
Construction
Starts Development
Projects Residential
Units Industrial GLA
(1000s of SF) Total
Development
Budget
2022 8 2,150 580 $1.1 billion
2023 8 1,450 440 $800 million
2024 + 11 9,100(1) 2,200 TBD
TOTAL 27 12,700(1) 3,220

(1) Latest estimated number of units.

• Office to Class A Multi-Residential and Industrial Redevelopment:
• 12 office properties located in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal will be redeveloped into Class A multi-residential and industrial properties. These office properties would add approximately 5,900 residential units and 440,000 square feet of industrial GLA to H&R's portfolio over time.

Executive Leadership Appointments
As part of this transformative initiative, H&R is pleased to announce the following executive officer appointments:
Philippe Lapointe – President Lantower Residential
Emily Watson - Chief Operating Officer of Lantower Residential
Colleen Grahn - President of Lantower Property Management
Robyn Kestenberg – Executive VP Office and Industrial
Matthew Kingston – Executive VP Development and Construction
In addition, upon completion of the Spin-Off, Alex Avery, who will be Chief Executive Officer and a Trustee of Primaris, will be resigning as an officer and Trustee of H&R REIT so that H&R and Primaris will be completely independent with no common officers or trustees.
PRIMARIS
Built for the New Retail Landscape
Primaris will have substantial scale, a differentiated financial model and a full service, vertically integrated management platform. The portfolio will include a combination of assets contributed by H&R and HOOPP, aggregating interests in 35 properties with an appraised value of approximately $3.2 billion spanning 11.4 million square feet of GLA, at Primaris' interest. Primaris will be fully internally managed, with an independent board of trustees and operate as a distinct and separate publicly-traded entity upon completion of the Spin-Off. Immediately following the Spin-Off, H&R unitholders will directly own approximately 74% of Primaris units outstanding, and HOOPP will own approximately 26% of Primaris units outstanding.
"Primaris will be exceptionally well positioned to take advantage of market opportunities at a unique time in the evolution of the Canadian retail property landscape," said Alex Avery, who will be Chief Executive Officer of Primaris following the Spin-Off. "The scale and strength of the Primaris platform combined with its conservative financial model provides significant flexibility and capacity to both self-fund Primaris' strategy and positions it well to pursue investment opportunities in the current environment."
"HOOPP is excited to be Primaris' institutional partner to this important transaction, forming Canada's only publicly-traded, pure play national enclosed shopping centre REIT," said Eric Plesman, Head of Global Real Estate at HOOPP. "Primaris is a well-recognized Canadian operator with a significant track record, and is well-positioned to grow and benefit from the economic recovery."
Key Transaction Highlights
• Large-Scale Canadian Enclosed Shopping Centre Portfolio: Primaris' high-quality national portfolio will be comprised of dominant shopping centres located in primary and secondary Canadian markets. As one of the four largest enclosed shopping centre platforms in Canada, Primaris will be an essential partner for retailers, providing efficient access to key markets across the country.
• Fully-Internal Management Platform and Strong Independent Board of Trustees: Primaris' fully-internal management platform capabilities span leasing, legal, finance, lease administration, human resources, information technology, accounting and reporting, operations, asset management and development with nearly 20 years of operating history. Primaris' executive leadership team will be led by Alex Avery, current Executive Vice President, Asset Management & Strategic Initiatives at H&R REIT, and Patrick Sullivan, current Chief Operating Officer of H&R's Primaris division, bringing significant real estate investment, capital markets and retail property operating expertise. The incoming Board of Trustees has been selected to ensure strong and independent governance.
• Differentiated Capital Structure and Financial Strategy: Primaris' leverage at formation is expected to be approximately 29% Debt to Gross Book Value and 5.3x Debt to EBITDA. Its target payout ratio of 45% – 50% of FFO is expected to initially provide significant retained annual cash flow of approximately $65 million to fund investments in development and acquisition opportunities and minimize reliance on external capital sources. This unique and flexible financial model is expected to differentiate Primaris, with leverage significantly below most Canadian REIT peers.
• Strong Institutional Endorsement: HOOPP, one of the largest and most successful pension fund investors in Canada, will be Primaris' largest unitholder, holding approximately 26% of outstanding units following the HOOPP Contribution, providing strong institutional support of Primaris' governance and strategy.
• Excess Density and Substantial Intensification Potential: The Primaris portfolio includes several urban properties with significant intensification potential. Dufferin Grove, Primaris' flagship 1,285 suite multi-residential development on four acres of excess land at Dufferin Mall is well advanced, with full zoning approval expected in 2021. Other significant intensification opportunities include Orchard Park in Kelowna, Place D'Orleans in Ottawa, Sunridge and Marlborough Malls in Calgary, among others. Internal development, intensification and adaptive reuse projects will be considered over time, in the context of alternative investment opportunities.
The property values and the resulting equity ownership in Primaris are based on recently completed independent third-party appraisals completed on 100% of the properties. H&R will contribute 27 properties with an appraised value of approximately $2.4 billion aggregating 7.6 million square feet of GLA at Primaris' proportionate interest, and HOOPP will contribute eight properties with an appraised value of approximately $0.8 billion, aggregating 3.8 million square feet of GLA.
Primaris will have a strong and well-diversified tenant base with its top ten tenants representing 29% of minimum rent. Canadian Tire, Walmart, Loblaws, TJX Companies and Bell Canada will be Primaris' largest tenants, and seven of the top ten tenants will be investment grade rated. Across Primaris' approximately 2,300 tenant portfolio, the weighted average lease term will be approximately 5.1 years.
Further information regarding the Spin-Off, including anticipated portfolio metrics and certain forecast financials will be included in the management proxy circular (the "Circular") expected to be mailed to H&R unitholders in November 2021. A Primaris investor presentation containing further information regarding the Spin-Off is available on H&R's website.
Details of the Spin-Off
H&R's properties will be transferred to Primaris pursuant to a plan of arrangement (the "Arrangement"). Each existing H&R unitholder will receive one unit of Primaris for every one H&R unit held, subject to any consolidation or split of Primaris units pursuant to the Arrangement. After completion of the Arrangement, HOOPP's properties will be sold to Primaris in consideration for units of Primaris. Following closing of the Arrangement and the HOOPP Contribution, H&R unitholders and HOOPP are expected to own an approximate 74% and 26% interest in Primaris, respectively.
In connection with the Arrangement, H&R will apply to the Court of Queen's Bench of Alberta for an interim order confirming, among other things, the calling and holding of a meeting (the "Meeting") of H&R unitholders to be held in December 2021 to approve the Arrangement. In addition, H&R has (i) applied to the Canada Revenue Agency for an advance income tax ruling confirming certain Canadian federal income tax consequences of the Arrangement (the "CRA Ruling"), and (ii) applied for conditional approval from the TSX for the listing and posting for trading of the Primaris units. Listing will be subject to the TSX's customary listing approval requirements.
The Arrangement is subject to the approval of H&R unitholders by way of the affirmative vote of at least two-thirds of the votes cast by H&R unitholders present in person or by proxy at the Meeting. The Board of H&R has determined that the Arrangement is in the best interests of H&R REIT and accordingly, H&R's Board recommends that H&R unitholders vote IN FAVOUR OF the Arrangement for the reasons to be set out in detail in the Circular. The H&R trustees have received a fairness opinion from their financial advisor, CIBC World Markets ("CIBC") that, subject to the assumptions, limitations and qualifications contained therein, (i) the distribution to H&R unitholders pursuant to the Arrangement is fair, from a financial point of view, to the H&R unitholders, and (ii) that the consideration to be paid to HOOPP by Primaris is fair, from a financial point of view, to Primaris.
If the Arrangement is approved by the H&R unitholders and assuming timely satisfaction (or waiver) of all other closing conditions, including receipt of a final order of the Court of Queen's Bench of Alberta and the CRA Ruling, it is anticipated that the transaction will be completed in late December 2021 or early 2022.
The foregoing is qualified in its entirety by the more detailed information that will be included in the Circular. Unitholders are urged to carefully read the Circular, once available, before making their decision with regards to the Arrangement. Copies of the arrangement agreement, purchase and sale agreement relating to the properties to be contributed by HOOPP and Circular will be available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
ADVISORS
CIBC World Markets and Scotiabank are acting as financial advisors to H&R REIT. Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP is acting as a legal counsel to H&R REIT.
BMO Capital Markets is acting as financial advisor to HOOPP. Torys LLP is acting as a legal counsel to HOOPP.
Real Asset Strategies is acting as investor relations advisor to H&R REIT.
CONFERENCE CALL
A conference call and live audio webcast and accompanying presentation hosted by H&R REIT and Primaris will be held to discuss the strategic repositioning plan, including the Spin-Off of Primaris on Wednesday, October 27, 2021 at 11.00 a.m. Eastern Time. Participants can join by logging into the webcast here, or at www.hr-reit.com, and selecting Investor Events under the Investor Relations section, or by dialing 1-888-510-2507 or 1-289-514-5065. Please connect at least 15 minutes prior to the conference call to ensure adequate time for any software download that may be required to join the webcast. The webcast will be archived on H&R's website following the call date.
For those unable to participate in the conference call at the scheduled time, it will be archived for replay beginning approximately one hour following completion of the call. To access the archived conference call by telephone, dial 1-800-770-2030 or 1-647-362-9199 and enter the passcode 7614157 followed by the pound key. The telephone replay will be available until November 3, 2021 at midnight.
Investor presentations for both H&R and Primaris are available on H&R's website at https://www.hr-reit.com/investor-rel...orpresentation.
Q3 RESULTS UPDATED CONFERENCE CALL AND WEBCAST DATE
H&R now intends to release its financial results for Q3 2021 on Monday, November 15, 2021. Management will host a conference call to discuss such financial results on Tuesday, November 16, 2021 at 9.30 a.m. Eastern Time. Participants can join the call by dialing 1-888-510-2507 or 1-289-514-5065. For those unable to participate in the conference call at the scheduled time, it will be archived for replay beginning approximately one hour following completion of the call. To access the archived conference call by telephone, dial 1-647-362-9199 or 1-800-770-2030 and enter the passcode 3504623 followed by the pound key. The telephone replay will be available until Tuesday, November 23, 2021 at midnight.
A live audio webcast will be available through https://www.hr-reit.com/investor-rel...nvestor-events. Please connect at least 15 minutes prior to the conference call to ensure adequate time for any software download that may be required to join the webcast. The webcast will be archived on H&R's website following the call date.
About H&R REIT
H&R REIT is one of Canada's largest real estate investment trusts with total assets of approximately $13.1 billion at June 30, 2021. H&R REIT has ownership interests in a North American portfolio of high-quality office, retail, industrial and residential properties comprising over 40 million square feet.
About the Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan
HOOPP serves Ontario's hospital and community-based healthcare sector, with more than 610 participating employers and 400,000 active, deferred and retired members. It operates as a private independent trust and is governed by a Board of Trustees with a sole fiduciary duty to deliver the pension promise. 
HOOPP is fully funded and manages a highly diversified portfolio of more than $104 billion in assets. The 10-year annualized rate of return is 11.16%. HOOPP's investing success is delivered by an in-house team of investment professionals.
HOOPP's real estate portfolio has a market value of more than $15 billion, spanning multiple geographies and asset classes (office, logistics, retail, residential). The Fund continues to grow both the scale and scope of this portfolio, with a focus on high-quality assets and best-in-class partners that share our sustainable investing approach and creation of long-term value for our members. The real estate portfolio had a currency-hedged return of 8.2% over the past five years, which is $1.8 billion over the benchmark.
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  #1684  
Old 10-27-2021, 11:56 AM
ehrgeiz ehrgeiz is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Dean2 View Post
I am glad I am heading out hunting for two weeks on Friday. Watching the gaggle of lying government MOFOs, from bank of Canada, to Freeland has got to the point where it is as bad as watching coverage of Covid. The fact that everyone knows they are lying through their teeth, and none of the mainstream media is calling them on it, is even worse. Inflation is ramping up, it is not transitory and the supply chain issues are not improving.

We already have 40% of Canadians saying they are having trouble covering their grocery bills. Over the winter this is going to get worse, and they are going to have rising costs of heat, electricity, gasoline, higher interest on their loans/mortgages and added inflation on everything else piled on top. Trudeau and his village of idiots is working very hard to makes Canada into another Venezuela.
Well put. How anyone has any institutional trust at this point is beyond me.

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  #1685  
Old 10-27-2021, 12:49 PM
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KGB KGB is online now
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean2 View Post
I am glad I am heading out hunting for two weeks on Friday. Watching the gaggle of lying government MOFOs, from bank of Canada, to Freeland has got to the point where it is as bad as watching coverage of Covid. The fact that everyone knows they are lying through their teeth, and none of the mainstream media is calling them on it, is even worse. Inflation is ramping up, it is not transitory and the supply chain issues are not improving.

We already have 40% of Canadians saying they are having trouble covering their grocery bills. Over the winter this is going to get worse, and they are going to have rising costs of heat, electricity, gasoline, higher interest on their loans/mortgages and added inflation on everything else piled on top. Trudeau and his village of idiots is working very hard to makes Canada into another Venezuela.
Oh man, you probably don’t even fully understand how right you are!
I am watching the broadcast news etc and it’s like watching the Soviet news back in the 80’s… Can somebody photoshop Turd face on Brezhnev please? Make sure he is wearing all his medals…
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  #1686  
Old 10-27-2021, 03:44 PM
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bdub bdub is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean2 View Post
I am glad I am heading out hunting for two weeks on Friday. Watching the gaggle of lying government MOFOs, from bank of Canada, to Freeland has got to the point where it is as bad as watching coverage of Covid. The fact that everyone knows they are lying through their teeth, and none of the mainstream media is calling them on it, is even worse. Inflation is ramping up, it is not transitory and the supply chain issues are not improving.

We already have 40% of Canadians saying they are having trouble covering their grocery bills. Over the winter this is going to get worse, and they are going to have rising costs of heat, electricity, gasoline, higher interest on their loans/mortgages and added inflation on everything else piled on top. Trudeau and his village of idiots is working very hard to makes Canada into another Venezuela.
I think a lot of folks a feeling the same frustrations. I’m outta here too after Friday for a week or so. Go live in the wall tent and try and kill something with a buddy I haven’t seen for a long time, sheep hunting brother who helped me kill my first ram. Unplug and try and figure out how to keep ahead of these markets, or at least not get run over to badly lol. After that, back to the salt mine for a bit.

TC
Thinking about the BOC Timbit today. Main takeaway is the market is dictating their actions. The forward guidance for a rate hike was bumped up by half a year. Hmm. They are getting scared of inflation. It’s no longer transitory but they expect it to subside after all the bottle necks get worked out. But hey, they have all the tools to stamp it out… via higher interest rates.

Yay, higher rates. Higher rent, higher car payments, higher mortgage payments. Higher costs for inputs into food, manufactured goods, services, yay. Higher wages yeah, not for most folks. So if you don’t get at least a 5% raise this year you are getting a pay cut. Or I should say if you are not bringing home an extra 5% after tax you are getting a pay cut. And, big AND, that is if you believe the Governments measure of CPI. If you are one of the governing elite running this country into the ground, the change in the CPI doesn’t matter though. Inflation doesn’t really affect you...at least not in the way it effects the average citizen.

Watching the statement/question and answer after the announcement a few things stood out. The first was the surprise that they were puzzled by the labour issues. Really? He must be lying or kidding.

The second was an answer to a question posed and his take on the drastic increase in the money supply and what he said about QE. I think he believes that CB’s and the government’s printing and spending has no bearing on the rate of inflation in a country like Canada. A country that holds zero gold as foreign reserves, that is eagerly trying to destroy one of its greatest industries and millions of jobs and businesses in the name of the climate cult. A country led by a government that loves spending to stay in power. He is a full on MMT guy. Only good thing I guess is that the United States is our best bud and are on the same path.
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  #1687  
Old 10-28-2021, 01:22 PM
Jim Blake Jim Blake is offline
 
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Suncor is doing well today. Up over 13%.

They doubled their quarterly dividend and increased share buy-backs.
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  #1688  
Old 10-29-2021, 10:14 AM
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Read an interesting article today in FP, thought it was worth sharing. The last bit of the article he makes a good point, one which I have thought myself, to the effect that there are such widely divergent views on where the markets are going in the near and long term. You can find so called experts to analyze and support both bearish and bullish viewpoints.

I like how he breaks down his own observations. Whether he is correct or not? Time will tell.

https://financialpost.com/investing/...undamentalists
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Old 10-29-2021, 11:22 AM
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Thanks for the article. He does seem to be in the bear camp more often than not by his own admission and missed a huge chunk of the last bull market by staying in the bear camp to long. He's a wealth of info for sure. I try and keep up on his views. Every once in a while he offers a free trial subscription to his news letters.

https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/in-the-news

Using the SP500 as a proxy for equity markets has a bit of a bias to it due to the FAANG component of it. A handful of mega cap stocks has outsize influence on the metrics. Other stock markets are cheaper, including Canada's, and might be a better place than the US markets going forward, or not. Who the hell knows. Like you say, time will tell.

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/yardenifangoverview.pdf
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  #1690  
Old 10-29-2021, 01:21 PM
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Twisted Canuck Twisted Canuck is offline
 
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Yep. Who the hell knows, indeed?

No point losing sleep, it won't change anything. I'm still in the mentality of investing being for long term, not trying to time markets. Buy well managed, large cap, industry leaders that pay dividends, and hope for the best.
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Old 10-29-2021, 02:28 PM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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Thanks for the article. He does seem to be in the bear camp more often than not by his own admission and missed a huge chunk of the last bull market by staying in the bear camp to long. He's a wealth of info for sure. I try and keep up on his views. Every once in a while he offers a free trial subscription to his news letters.

https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/in-the-news

Using the SP500 as a proxy for equity markets has a bit of a bias to it due to the FAANG component of it. A handful of mega cap stocks has outsize influence on the metrics. Other stock markets are cheaper, including Canada's, and might be a better place than the US markets going forward, or not. Who the hell knows. Like you say, time will tell.

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/yardenifangoverview.pdf

bears and bull will both make money, best not to switch gear/ second guess halfway that how piggy get caught .
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  #1692  
Old 10-29-2021, 02:56 PM
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bdub bdub is offline
 
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The BOC's comments on the labour problem yesterday makes me wonder why Tim made the comments he did. It's obviously becoming a concern and they must surely be aware of the reasons and potential outcomes.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/wo...125750335.html

https://leaderpost.com/news/economy/...s-labor-market

The inflation risk is growing and the ability of CB's around the world to keep a lid on interest rates is soon ending. That has implications for valuations as the discount rate increases. Certain sectors and asset classes will benefit from rising rates while others will suffer.

I agree that holding quality dividend payers and holding through thick and thin is probably the best strategy for most. Over long periods of time its probably going to beat most strategies. Its the holding through the thin times that many struggle with. When craps down 20%, 30%, 40%+ it causes people to loose their cool. It's stressful. That's when diversification into uncorrelated assets, having some cash on hand and/or the ability to borrow, or even just the ability to walk away and not look pays off over time. But lot's of people can't handle the pain in an all stock portfolio and do end up dumping at or along the bottom.
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  #1693  
Old 10-30-2021, 11:01 AM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/expe...-say-1.5643959

Variable rate going up soon , will it be record profit for the banks
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  #1694  
Old 10-30-2021, 12:46 PM
Buckhead Buckhead is offline
 
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I have always been a contrarian of sorts. When things are down 20, 30, 40% I am a buyer. It like buying things on sale. When markets are making new highs all the time it makes me nervous. I am usually reducing my exposure by about 30% in those times. That strategy as well as dollar cost averaging has served me well over many years.
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  #1695  
Old 10-30-2021, 01:45 PM
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KGB KGB is online now
 
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Default Interesting strategy

https://youtu.be/l6e0dX9VyQ0
That’s quite a strategy especially for those with no mortgage.
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  #1696  
Old 10-31-2021, 09:01 AM
eric2381 eric2381 is offline
 
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https://www.ninepoint.com/commentary...r-market-view/
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  #1697  
Old 10-31-2021, 01:42 PM
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Eric is a nice kid but if I had followed his top picks on BNN during the last 10 years- I would be broke!
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  #1698  
Old 10-31-2021, 03:48 PM
eric2381 eric2381 is offline
 
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I just don’t think it’s a good idea to follow advice from any of the promoters on BNN. However, I do fully agree we are in a bull market for oil. And have been for a bit now.


I’ve followed this thread for awhile, but haven’t commented on it.

I am curious though. At what oil price point do people start fully believing in the rally? Investors are mostly momentum driven. They’re too scared to get in at the bottom.

What oil price do people become believers? $80, $90, $100, $110? Higher?
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  #1699  
Old 10-31-2021, 03:49 PM
eric2381 eric2381 is offline
 
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Have a great Sunday and week coming up.

Eric
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  #1700  
Old 10-31-2021, 03:50 PM
eric2381 eric2381 is offline
 
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Haha. And I better make comment that, the only thing Nuttal and I share is a first name. And maybe thoughts on oil at this moment.
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  #1701  
Old 11-04-2021, 11:50 AM
fishnguy fishnguy is online now
 
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Why are us banks taking a hit today?
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  #1702  
Old 11-04-2021, 02:57 PM
Drewski Canuck Drewski Canuck is offline
 
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Originally Posted by eric2381 View Post
I just don’t think it’s a good idea to follow advice from any of the promoters on BNN. However, I do fully agree we are in a bull market for oil. And have been for a bit now.


I’ve followed this thread for awhile, but haven’t commented on it.

I am curious though. At what oil price point do people start fully believing in the rally? Investors are mostly momentum driven. They’re too scared to get in at the bottom.

What oil price do people become believers? $80, $90, $100, $110? Higher?
The big problem for Oil stocks is that alot of Pension Funds and Sovereign Funds are forced to make "ethical" investment choices. That means that Norway will not invest money in a company that sells "dirty oil" for instance.

The impact of institutional investors being guilted away from an investment such as Syncrude is well documented. Little Retail guys like you and I don't move a market. Outfits like CPP / QPP, and US Government Pension Plans do move the market.

Trouble is, when Oil Companies are doubling dividends and buying back shares, it is hard to NOT invest in oil stocks.

Above all else, Returns are the sacred cow for a Pension or Sovereign Fund Manager.

Drewski
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  #1703  
Old 11-05-2021, 11:13 AM
fishnguy fishnguy is online now
 
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Why are us banks taking a hit today?
Since no one answered, I will take a stab. In case anyone is interested, lol. I had some option contracts that expire in a couple of weeks. In particular, I had some calls with various strikes for Goldman.

Anyway, yesterday all banks tanked a bit, with GS more than others, dipping almost 4% at some point (recovered to -2.4% by the end of the day). I looked at the news through out the day, but couldn’t find anything that would relate. A random sell off, which sure does happen. Except the banks reported record profit just a week or two ago and solid guidance, and shares hardly touched all time high since.

So… I looked at the options chain. Here are the call options that expire today:



Here are the puts that expire today:



I will bet money that GS will close somewhere between $405 and $410 today, likely just below $407.5. That way “they” will make certain thousands of those contracts expire worthless. It’s a lot of money at play there. Funny how that works.

Having this information at hand, I dumped most of my calls near the top earlier today, only held those I am (more or less) comfortable holding. The share price went as high as $414.4 (I sold at $413.9 or something), after a solid dump with low volume to $409-ish within half an hour and currently sitting at $408.39.

Could be purely coincidental, of course. Money never lie though, right? “They” sure as hell know what “they” are doing and and how things work. It’s also not a coincidence that the dump took place at that time, after the morning volume and buy-in. None of it is a coincidence, imo. We will see if I am right in regards to the closing price. Someone should post this stuff on Reddit, lol. Though it does happen almost weekly with various tickers.

Anyway, thought someone would find it interesting. I should have bought puts after selling the calls, but I don’t have that much confidence in my market manipulation theory, lol.

Edit: while I wrote the above, it sank to $407.25.
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  #1704  
Old 11-05-2021, 02:11 PM
fishnguy fishnguy is online now
 
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likely just below $407.5




And that’s how you make money when you are a big boy and can manipulate stock peices. Lot’s of money.
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  #1705  
Old 11-07-2021, 07:54 PM
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Why are us banks taking a hit today?
I'm not following you on your option theory?

I would blame the higher volatility of the banks on the FED's taper talk and the reaction of the bond market but ?? Whenever J Pow flaps his gums I expect something to react more than usual.
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  #1706  
Old 11-07-2021, 10:52 PM
fishnguy fishnguy is online now
 
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^ All of the calls with strikes $407.5 and higher expired out of the money, ie worthless. If you look at the first image, there were about 17,000 calls that expired out of the money, with absolute majority being within $407.5-$420 strike range. Sure, there were some puts, but the number is insignificant compared to the number of calls. It made sense to tank it below $407.5 specifically because there were more calls that would expire in the money than there were puts that did at that strike. The price couldn’t go below $405 because there were more puts that would expire in the money than calls did.

Of course, it could be just a (conspiracy?) theory, lol. And it has flaws that I myself can point out (or some of them, at least). But that chart was very predictable to watch. One unexpected thing was when it tanked to $407.5 and then a sudden further drop to near $406. My guess is that price point triggered some stop loss orders because that’s where the loose “support” was anticipated. The immediate buy-in that followed was kind of obvious though.

I don’t have big enough cojones to play it, lol, but I definitely could have made some money on Friday.

Did Jerome speak? I must have missed it if he did.
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  #1707  
Old 11-09-2021, 09:19 AM
Drewski Canuck Drewski Canuck is offline
 
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Isn't the gamble with calls oversold what got Gamestop rallying through the roof?

The retail investors jumped onto it, and the Hedge Funds got hammered.

Maybe the big players have learned a lesson on Gamestop and don't mind taking paper losses on the stock to avoid a flood of options running wild again.

Drewski
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  #1708  
Old 11-09-2021, 09:36 AM
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Trochu Trochu is offline
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Any of you guys going to jump on Rivian when it comes available?

I'd hate to call it investing, as I suspect it's going to be way, way overvalued, but there may be a big wave to ride there.

Rivian: $72/share
Tesla: $1,075/share
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  #1709  
Old 11-09-2021, 09:57 AM
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tirebob tirebob is offline
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Any of you guys going to jump on Rivian when it comes available?

I'd hate to call it investing, as I suspect it's going to be way, way overvalued, but there may be a big wave to ride there.

Rivian: $72/share
Tesla: $1,075/share
I think you are going to see a lot of EV stocks coming online over the next while. Tesla has the advantage of not just relying on being an EV stock. It gets a ton of it's value simple because Elon is the personality that he is as well as all his other stuff carries weight over to Tesla. I think it would be pretty unreasonable to think any other EV company will see the kind of valuation Tesla has simply being based on being an EV stock.

That of course doesn't mean there is no money to be made riding the wave, but I don't think any of them are going to touch Tesla's valuation, at least short of something extremely crazy happening in the bizzaro land of "Celebrity Stock", of which I think Elon is creating a genre unto itself.
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  #1710  
Old 11-09-2021, 09:48 PM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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I think you are going to see a lot of EV stocks coming online over the next while. Tesla has the advantage of not just relying on being an EV stock. It gets a ton of it's value simple because Elon is the personality that he is as well as all his other stuff carries weight over to Tesla. I think it would be pretty unreasonable to think any other EV company will see the kind of valuation Tesla has simply being based on being an EV stock.

That of course doesn't mean there is no money to be made riding the wave, but I don't think any of them are going to touch Tesla's valuation, at least short of something extremely crazy happening in the bizzaro land of "Celebrity Stock", of which I think Elon is creating a genre unto itself.
His brother sold over a $100 million worth of Tesla stock 1 day before he made his twitter poll about selling 10% of his Tesla’s stocks ... gonna get another mail from the SEC..
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