Financial Markets Meltdown

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by MyAlberta

I’m active with a chunk of change playing spreads. Been in sync last month with a couple of paydays, but that only lasts until it doesn’t.

Glad to see realestate has fallen back into your consideration as you had seemed to disqualify it not long ago.

I must have worded something badly along the way. I have never been out of real estate. I have at times thought it was a good or bad time to buy in specific locations or specific types of real estate but there is no time in the last 35 years where I have had less than 30 percent in physical real estate and some more in REITS.

[DiabeticKripple]

Must be a market correction going on. Couple days of small growth then hammered down again. Seems to be the trend.

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by DiabeticKripple

Must be a market correction going on. Couple days of small growth then hammered down again. Seems to be the trend.

It really is no fun to see your portfolio drop 2% in single day but you need to keep it in perspective. Despite the latest downdraft, the overall portfolio is up 28% over the past 12 months, that longer term trend is what a guy needs to focus on. Today is another buying opportunity, Bought some Freehold Royalty, FRU at $15.10 this morning. Still have buy orders in on a few others if they come off more than they have so far. Enjoy the dips, this is where you make the good money. (Still not touching Shopify, Amazon, Air Canada, Cruise lines etc, they are FAR from the bottom.)

[DiabeticKripple]

Originally Posted by Dean2

It really is no fun to see your portfolio drop 2% in single day but you need to keep it in perspective. Despite the latest downdraft, the overall portfolio is up 28% over the past 12 months, that longer term trend is what a guy needs to focus on. Today is another buying opportunity, Bought some Freehold Royalty, FRU at $15.10 this morning. Still have buy orders in on a few others if they come off more than they have so far. Enjoy the dips, this is where you make the good money. (Still not touching Shopify, Amazon, Air Canada, Cruise lines etc, they are FAR from the bottom.)

I’m losing closer to 8% today. Getting killed.

Only lose if you sell though!

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by DiabeticKripple

I’m losing closer to 8% today. Getting killed.

Only lose if you sell though!

On that basis you should be up over 60% in the past 12 months. No idea what your portfolio is made up of but anything over a 3% swing, even with the large moves today and assuming you are up less than 40% over the past 12 months, means I would probably be looking at the balance, diversification and Beta composition of my portfolio if it was me. This isn't the time for a re-balance but as soon as it is, I would definitely be giving it a hard look.

[DiabeticKripple]

Originally Posted by Dean2

On that basis you should be up over 60% in the past 12 months. No idea what your portfolio is made up of but anything over a 3% swing, even with the large moves today and assuming you are up less than 40% over the past 12 months, means I would probably be looking at the balance, diversification and Beta composition of my portfolio if it was me. This isn't the time for a re-balance but as soon as it is, I would definitely be giving it a hard look.

Oh ya I need to rebalance big time. Just getting into the markets more now that I understand them a bit better, but majority of my portfolio is energy. I put 10% of my earnings into my company stocks so that’s why the big imbalance. Still profitable on them but wanted to hit a couple $$$ higher before cashing out.

[Map Maker]

Interest rate hikes are doing their job.

[roper1]

Originally Posted by Dean2

On that basis you should be up over 60% in the past 12 months. No idea what your portfolio is made up of but anything over a 3% swing, even with the large moves today and assuming you are up less than 40% over the past 12 months, means I would probably be looking at the balance, diversification and Beta composition of my portfolio if it was me. This isn't the time for a re-balance but as soon as it is, I would definitely be giving it a hard look.

My portfolio has been nicely resilient the last bit. We'll see what the balance shows in the morning.......

[bdub]

Inflation numbers tomorrow are going to be a big deal if they come in much hotter or cooler than last month. Could see a big move in stocks tomorrow.

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by bdub

Inflation numbers tomorrow are going to be a big deal if they come in much hotter or cooler than last month. Could see a big move in stocks tomorrow.

This is the headline… not to too late to add some vix

The consumer price index accelerated 8.3% in April, more than the 8.1% estimate and near the highest level in more than 40 years.

[bdub]

Originally Posted by fishtank

This is the headline… not to too late to add some vix

Volatility didn’t move that much on the cpi. Just going sideways but elevated for the last few days. Slow steady grind down in tech all day though. 3% down days are getting pretty common.

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by bdub

Volatility didn’t move that much on the cpi. Just going sideways but elevated for the last few days. Slow steady grind down in tech all day though. 3% down days are getting pretty common.

We might see a 6% correction day

[pikeman06]

TSX down 10 percent in 6 months...we will soon see hiw many investors are true "stick and stay" type investors. I hopped out of the market and missed maybe 1.5 percent of potential return and was kicking myself for bailing. Not anymore.

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by pikeman06

TSX down 10 percent in 6 months...we will soon see hiw many investors are true "stick and stay" type investors. I hopped out of the market and missed maybe 1.5 percent of potential return and was kicking myself for bailing. Not anymore.

Sure hope all these buy and sells are tax shielded or you are going to end up WAY behind. From the most recent high, and as of 3 minutes ago, total portfolio is down 4%. It however is still up over 28% in the past 12 months alone, and significantly more than that over the period some have been held. If I were to sell all those stocks off, I would pay 25% of the gain in taxes, and assuming we only deal with the last 12 months of gains that would be 7% of the total portfolio. That is a permanent reduction in my capital base. I have to see a lot more reduction before I would be ahead after tax, especially on some of the ones where the total gain over the period of holding the stocks is in the 70-800% range.

[fishtank]

A lot of the crypto market fear is spilling over to stocks.

[pikeman06]

Originally Posted by Dean2

Sure hope all these buy and sells are tax shielded or you are going to end up WAY behind. From the most recent high, and as of 3 minutes ago, total portfolio is down 4%. It however is still up over 28% in the past 12 months alone, and significantly more than that over the period some have been held. If I were to sell all those stocks off, I would pay 25% of the gain in taxes, and assuming we only deal with the last 12 months of gains that would be 7% of the total portfolio. That is a permanent reduction in my capital base. I have to see a lot more reduction before I would be ahead after tax, especially on some of the ones where the total gain over the period of holding the stocks is in the 70-800% range.

I paid my taxes on the portion not in my t.f.s.a. thankfully it was a slow year income wise. It was a now or never kinda decision to get that money out and in hindsight it worked out pretty good. I'll be back in when she hits bottom or what I consider the bottom anyways. I had a good run. 👍

[IronNoggin]

And Canada is being towed right along with them:

US producer prices jump 11% in April as cost of food soars

The double digit indicates that high inflation will take a big bite of consumer wallets for months to come.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/20...d-prices-spike

[Mulehahn]

Looks like TD maybe in for a bit of a scandal* down in the USA and I am curious as to what people think will happen to it's stock prices on the Canadian side?

**It appears they were busted doing the exact same thing Wells Fargo did but in 2017 and Trump's Comptroller said don't do it any more and made them promise. Apparently their attempts to take over a bank in the Southern part of the country has brought to light they aren't keeping that promise. This is a quick breakdown but there is a podcast about it.

[Map Maker]

Yeah TD has a lot of American exposure. I remember in the sub-prime fiasco, Ted got hit a lot harder than other Canadian banks.

Any opinions on Netflix?
Huge drop from 750 to 170.
Analysts are saying it can go lower.

$11 eps, p/e under $20.

Sounds like a buy to me

[Twisted Canuck]

Netflix is continuing to lose market share and profits, lots more competition for streaming now (Prime, Disney, etc).

I personally wouldn't go near them. It would be like buying Blockbuster imo.

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by Twisted Canuck

Netflix is continuing to lose market share and profits, lots more competition for streaming now (Prime, Disney, etc).

I personally wouldn't go near them. It would be like buying Blockbuster imo.

Spot on. Like Shopify, these are both real life examples of trying to catch a falling knife. If you badly want to invest in them, at least wait till they bottom and show a couple of months of defined up trend. Everyone thought Nortel and Bombardier were great deals as they dropped and all the analysts recommended them as under valued..

[doublehaul]

Oops

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by doublehaul

Is there a reason why one of the major banks value dropped so much on Friday??

If you are talking CIBC it is because they did a 2 for 1 stock split. Value dropped by half, went up 80 cents today on the split shares, so 1.60 pre split.

[doublehaul]

Thanks,
I just figured it out

[bdub]

Energy looking pretty good. Biden dumping millions of bbls of oil on the market, covid lockdowns in China and oils right back up to 110$. Nat gas going absolutely nuts. Buying opportunity here or not?

[Twisted Canuck]

Originally Posted by Dean2

Spot on. Like Shopify, these are both real life examples of trying to catch a falling knife. If you badly want to invest in them, at least wait till they bottom and show a couple of months of defined up trend. Everyone thought Nortel and Bombardier were great deals as they dropped and all the analysts recommended them as under valued..

The falling knife is dull too. There is no gain to be had on it. So many better opportunities to be had.

[Fisherdan]

Bit of a question here… I noticed Walmart sales are up a little bit: 2.4%. Home Depot is expecting north of 3% sales increase as well this year.

If inflation is up 8%, but sales are only up 2%, is that really a shrinkage? Or are these things somehow calculated independently of each other? Can anything of value be actually read from this?

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by Fisherdan

Bit of a question here… I noticed Walmart sales are up a little bit: 2.4%. Home Depot is expecting north of 3% sales increase as well this year.

If inflation is up 8%, but sales are only up 2%, is that really a shrinkage? Or are these things somehow calculated independently of each other? Can anything of value be actually read from this?

If you look at Walmart's results, sales are up a bit but net profit is way down. That is in large part inflation. You are correct that if the increase in gross sales don't equal inflation then they are actually decreasing, assuming product pricing stays flat. Even if gross sales increase equals inflation, again assuming prices stay the same, they are just holding even and gross margin will be going backwards as cost of goods sold, wages, trucking etc are all increasing. This will happen unless they found other areas to cut costs or raise their prices. If they raise their prices 8% with 8% inflation, then they sell the same number of items, just at a higher price. Gross margin and net profit should come out close to previous.

bdub

Have done well with Pembina Pipe, Trans Canada, Cenovus, Vermillion, Whitecap, Peyto, Ensign, Freehold Royalties and a few others but I bought them in the big dips almost 2 years and 1 ago. I have not sold them off yet because I think there is still a bunch of upside in them. that said, I am not a long term fan of oil and gas and consider these short to medium term holds, except the pipelines.

[slough shark]

Originally Posted by Fisherdan

Bit of a question here… I noticed Walmart sales are up a little bit: 2.4%. Home Depot is expecting north of 3% sales increase as well this year.

If inflation is up 8%, but sales are only up 2%, is that really a shrinkage? Or are these things somehow calculated independently of each other? Can anything of value be actually read from this?

I’m reading this as a weakness in sales, they are bringing in the same $$ but selling fewer actual products. Unless peoples wages rise at the same rate of inflation at the end of the day they will have fewer dollars to spend. This could help the supply chain come back into balance because people don’t have the money to spend on things. Maybe that’s just my read on things but things may rapidly slow down

[fishtank]

Even Costco items are going up in price , they usually price in bulk so they will keep their 10-15% margin . Expecting inflation to be at 50 year high next time they report it . , expect the market to be on a downtrend as the rate. And money get tighter, more people in the housing market are downsizing, selling from higher price places and buying in smaller market like from Toronto to Edmonton .