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  #2251  
Old 05-31-2022, 09:42 AM
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As always, Dean nailed it. Anyone who believes inflation has peaked needs to go fill up with premium and see what the butcher bill is now, compared to a month ago...or a year ago. It seems to be going up weekly, or even faster.
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  #2252  
Old 06-01-2022, 08:29 AM
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This from the ATB Economics department. Rate hike was fully expected and it is still causing ripples. Like I said before, two half a percent hikes in quick succession and a large balance sheet contraction and inflation is still accelerating, even using the Bank of Canada's cooked numbers. If you have a mortgage lock it in, if there are bonds in your investments or if you hold and "Conservative or Balanced" mutual funds that generally have 40% bonds, I would get rid of them now. A $1000 bond at 2% is worth $500 when rates rise to 4%

Quote:
Siddhartha Bhattacharya, ATB Economics | June 1, 2022


Interest rate jumps to 1.5%
The Bank of Canada announced* this morning that it is raising its trendsetting policy interest rate from 1.0% to 1.5%. This followed the 50-basis point increase back in April and is the third increase so far this year.

The increases are aimed at reducing the elevated level of inflation that has been spurred by drought, supply chain disruptions, the economic recovery from the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Bank cited that ďwith the economy in excess demand, and inflation persisting well above target and expected to move higher in the near term, the Governing Council continues to judge that interest rates will need to rise further.Ē

The rate hike was mostly expected given that the national inflation rate reached 6.8% in April. However, the question remains as to how much higher the Bank will go before tightening monetary policy starts to weigh on economic activity.

*Each year, the Bank of Canada sets eight fixed dates on which it announces whether or not it will change its policy interest rate. The next announcement is scheduled for July 13, 2022.

Answer to the previous trivia question: In establishing the Federal Reserve System, the United States was divided geographically into 12 Districts, each with a separately incorporated Reserve Bank.

Todayís trivia question: When was the original head office building for the Bank of Canada completed?
Was checking portfolios this morning. The 12 month running return sits at 24.5% on the combined book. So despite the latest ripples it has still been far better to be invested than to be sitting on the sidelines, total portfolio as of this morning is 3% higher than its previous all time high.
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  #2253  
Old 06-01-2022, 09:39 AM
EdmontonEli EdmontonEli is offline
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Remember, buy high sell low.
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  #2254  
Old 06-03-2022, 01:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Dean2 View Post
They are selling the same bag of lies they have been for the past two years. First it was a temporary spike due to supply chain disruptions, next it was transitory, next it was elevated but controlled, then high enough to be worrisome and require Central Bank intervention in interest rates and a more rapid shrinkage of their balance sheets etc. To date none of that has had any effect at all, and inflation has only increased. True inflation, rather than the cooked number all governments publish is running near 20% in Canada and the states.

Peak implies it is set to start coming down, I would be happy if it levels off and quits accelerating, but I don't think we are at that point yet. Money is still being flushed into the system by out of control government spending, supply chains are still a mess, transportation is fractured, food supplies are at risk and oil is headed to $150 bucks. On top off that GDP growth has stalled. Peaked my ass.

Yes we seem to be living with idiots at the wheel. Food, shelter and energy are the biggest contributors to the cpi. Food inflation up something like 9-10% yoy, energy/fuel up 36.3%, shelter up 7.4% (April data). And why? It's supply issues, not demand issues. People are not buying excess amounts of steaks, bread and fruits and vegetables to the degree that is causing food prices to spike. Same thing with housing costs, energy costs and pretty much everything else.

The biggest problem is our central banks and governments, as well as spending and continuing to spend and tax us into the poor house, have hindered energy production in the name of the climate change and embraced the dangerous policy of globalization. We are now finding our fate being determined by in a large degree by forces like OPEC, China and Russia. Not exactly friendly to the west and getting less so by the day.

I don't expect inflation to roll over anytime soon either. Perhaps the yoy numbers will level off but 6% yoy is not much better than 8%. I think it will be a long time before we see inflation below the CB's target. And the damage is already done. High prices are likely here to stay and if wages don't compensate, which it seems they are not, then we are worse off. Much worse with the amount of leverage in the system. We are in a much more financially fragile space than when we went through the last high inflation period in the 70's-80's.

Unless you have some serious skill/luck good fortune, the majority of folks are going to end up worse off in real terms financially. Many are going to find there wages up less than inflation, investment returns less than inflation and probably much less/negative, and their costs up much more than inflation due to their leveraged positions on housing/vehicles and other debt. Brace yourselves imo. Our central banks are going to crush everyone with these multiple rate hikes because it is the only tool they have left.

Hopefully Alberta will end up in a half decent position due to our economic circumstances as energy and commodity producers like the 2008 period. Rant over.
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Old 06-03-2022, 04:51 PM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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Yes we seem to be living with idiots at the wheel. Food, shelter and energy are the biggest contributors to the cpi. Food inflation up something like 9-10% yoy, energy/fuel up 36.3%, shelter up 7.4% (April data). And why? It's supply issues, not demand issues. People are not buying excess amounts of steaks, bread and fruits and vegetables to the degree that is causing food prices to spike. Same thing with housing costs, energy costs and pretty much everything else.

The biggest problem is our central banks and governments, as well as spending and continuing to spend and tax us into the poor house, have hindered energy production in the name of the climate change and embraced the dangerous policy of globalization. We are now finding our fate being determined by in a large degree by forces like OPEC, China and Russia. Not exactly friendly to the west and getting less so by the day.

I don't expect inflation to roll over anytime soon either. Perhaps the yoy numbers will level off but 6% yoy is not much better than 8%. I think it will be a long time before we see inflation below the CB's target. And the damage is already done. High prices are likely here to stay and if wages don't compensate, which it seems they are not, then we are worse off. Much worse with the amount of leverage in the system. We are in a much more financially fragile space than when we went through the last high inflation period in the 70's-80's.

Unless you have some serious skill/luck good fortune, the majority of folks are going to end up worse off in real terms financially. Many are going to find there wages up less than inflation, investment returns less than inflation and probably much less/negative, and their costs up much more than inflation due to their leveraged positions on housing/vehicles and other debt. Brace yourselves imo. Our central banks are going to crush everyone with these multiple rate hikes because it is the only tool they have left.

Hopefully Alberta will end up in a half decent position due to our economic circumstances as energy and commodity producers like the 2008 period. Rant over.
Only problem with their rate hike it that will likely put the economy into a recessionÖtime to brace for it .
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  #2256  
Old 06-03-2022, 06:17 PM
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Only problem with their rate hike it that will likely put the economy into a recessionÖtime to brace for it .
Going off their past record of failure the odds are better than 80% they will push us into recession. The difference this time around may be that instead of the recession causing food and energy prices to fall significantly we may end up in a recession with prices remaining elevated because nothing has been fixed with the structural and geopolitical issues around energy or food supply.

And I find it amazing that Biden has dumped almost 60 million bbls of oil on the market out of the strategic petroleum reserve, has gone begging to Iran and Venezuela and right now as we speak is kissing Mohammed bin Salman's rear end to get more oil supply while at the same time appeasing the greenies at home by killing KXL among a bunch of other things. Hypocritical beyond belief. What do we expect though. Biden can hardly remember his name or what day it is in between diaper changes. Trudeau is just a painful but he doesn't have old age as an excuse. He's just a plain old idiot.
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  #2257  
Old 06-03-2022, 07:34 PM
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Going off their past record of failure the odds are better than 80% they will push us into recession. The difference this time around may be that instead of the recession causing food and energy prices to fall significantly we may end up in a recession with prices remaining elevated because nothing has been fixed with the structural and geopolitical issues around energy or food supply.

And I find it amazing that Biden has dumped almost 60 million bbls of oil on the market out of the strategic petroleum reserve, has gone begging to Iran and Venezuela and right now as we speak is kissing Mohammed bin Salman's rear end to get more oil supply while at the same time appeasing the greenies at home by killing KXL among a bunch of other things. Hypocritical beyond belief. What do we expect though. Biden can hardly remember his name or what day it is in between diaper changes. Trudeau is just a painful but he doesn't have old age as an excuse. He's just a plain old idiot.
The USA is treating Canada oil reserves like a saving account, knowing that Canada can only sell to them due to the land lock. they are not in a hurry to fully tap it yet . While they use their own and the worlds oil like a checking account.
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  #2258  
Old 06-07-2022, 01:24 AM
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This from Charlie Billelo re my earlier comments about this not being the time to be in the typical 60-40 recommended portfolio or the so called conservative or balanced funds.

When Stocks and Bonds Go Down Together
The first 5 months of 2022 have been the most difficult start to a year on record for a 60/40 portfolio of US stocks and bonds.




The last 8 times the S&P 500 was down in a calendar year, bonds finished the year up, cushioning the blow. With rising inflation and interest rates acting as the proximate cause of the stock market decline, itís been a very different story thus far in 2022Ö

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  #2259  
Old 06-07-2022, 10:19 AM
Drewski Canuck Drewski Canuck is offline
 
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Trudeau / Biden's logic is that if we push fossil fuel energy prices SO HIGH that they are comparable to renewable energy prices, the People will have no economic excuse to refuse the switch to renewable energy.

The Communist Rebels in South America (Shining Path for example) had the logic that if they commit enough terrorist acts on the People, the Government will have to become more and more restrictive on the freedoms of the people, and the people will rebel and EMBRACE COMMUNISM.

Now of course there is a New World Order cross over here. You see, if you have NO PROPERTY, then inflation means nothing, as we all own everything equally through your COMMUNIST GOVERNMENT.

I wonder how Trudeau / Biden would like to see the idea of property ownership for the World in the future?

If the People have no money left because of inflation, and cannot own property because inflation has destroyed all wealth, then the switch to Communism is not so offensive, right? Fossil Fuel prices spiralling are one method to feed inflation, and cause the switch to a Green Agenda.

Drewski
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  #2260  
Old 06-07-2022, 06:57 PM
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What happens when farmers stop using fertilizer because prices are to high? Wait till we see food prices 6-12 plus months out and starvation makes the front page.


https://reliefweb.int/report/world/f...rica-june-2022
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  #2261  
Old 06-07-2022, 08:15 PM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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Cibc , Amazon 1:20 split. google will split 1:20 on July 15 . More affordable looking for short term gains as the split effect for these usually have a nice pop . Shopify also annonce a 1:10 split.
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  #2262  
Old 06-07-2022, 08:21 PM
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Canadian oil and gas $$$$$$ MEG NVA BTE BIR TVE HWX CVE
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  #2263  
Old 06-07-2022, 08:27 PM
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STEP has been going crazy the last month, i bought some more this morning. looking for a quick 10-20%
How are those service companies treating you? What a treat!!
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  #2264  
Old 06-07-2022, 08:44 PM
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Cibc , Amazon 1:20 split. google will split 1:20 on July 15 . More affordable looking for short term gains as the split effect for these usually have a nice pop . Shopify also annonce a 1:10 split.
Funny how the tech companies announced stock splits when their stocks are taking a beating instead of last year at all time highs.
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Old 06-07-2022, 08:53 PM
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Funny how the tech companies announced stock splits when their stocks are taking a beating instead of last year at all time highs.
This split like a last option to maximize capital, as the cheap debt and capital is coming to a end . I think google still have room to gain as they are pretty much have a monopoly the online ads space, and the growth on YouTube is very strong .
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  #2266  
Old 06-07-2022, 08:56 PM
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Originally Posted by bdub View Post
What happens when farmers stop using fertilizer because prices are to high? Wait till we see food prices 6-12 plus months out and starvation makes the front page.


https://reliefweb.int/report/world/f...rica-june-2022
I like how the Russian-Ukraine war is why everything is more expensive. Doesn't matter that the price of wheat has actually dropped in Canada since the war started, it's high because of the war! High fuel prices, war, high fertilizer prices, war, high lumber prices, war, high food prices, war, high utility prices, war!
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  #2267  
Old 06-07-2022, 09:11 PM
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I like how the Russian-Ukraine war is why everything is more expensive. Doesn't matter that the price of wheat has actually dropped in Canada since the war started, it's high because of the war! High fuel prices, war, high fertilizer prices, war, high lumber prices, war, high food prices, war, high utility prices, war!
Yes indeed. Nothing to see here folks. Itís the Russians.
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Old 06-07-2022, 09:13 PM
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This split like a last option to maximize capital, as the cheap debt and capital is coming to a end . I think google still have room to gain as they are pretty much have a monopoly the online ads space, and the growth on YouTube is very strong .
Iím remaining patient. I think weíre going to have one or two more rally's and dumps before the bottom is in.
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Old 06-07-2022, 11:08 PM
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I like how the Russian-Ukraine war is why everything is more expensive. Doesn't matter that the price of wheat has actually dropped in Canada since the war started, it's high because of the war! High fuel prices, war, high fertilizer prices, war, high lumber prices, war, high food prices, war, high utility prices, war!
Yup, things just don't change, do they...

Prior to the Vietnam war, when there was a dip in the economy, people were saying "...we need another little war..."
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Old 06-08-2022, 09:27 AM
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Canadian oil and gas $$$$$$ MEG NVA BTE BIR TVE HWX CVE
TVE, up around 50% in the last month!
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Old 06-08-2022, 09:40 AM
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The USA is treating Canada oil reserves like a saving account, knowing that Canada can only sell to them due to the land lock. they are not in a hurry to fully tap it yet . While they use their own and the worlds oil like a checking account.
I am always surprised how little people seem to understand this. The US lets the green agenda do the dirty work, but clearly there is a strategic side to all of this.
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Old 06-08-2022, 10:16 AM
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I am always surprised how little people seem to understand this. The US lets the green agenda do the dirty work, but clearly there is a strategic side to all of this.
Exactly. Saving it up to be plundered later.

The question is, by whom?

Last edited by Stinky Buffalo; 06-08-2022 at 10:22 AM.
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  #2273  
Old 06-08-2022, 10:21 AM
MooseRiverTrapper MooseRiverTrapper is offline
 
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TVE, up around 50% in the last month!
Same with ERF $$$
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Old 06-09-2022, 07:34 AM
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Canadian oil and gas $$$$$$ MEG NVA BTE BIR TVE HWX CVE

Ahh yes Oil/Gas Stocks, an investor pretty much couldn't go wrong with any of the 100's of names, obviously some are and still will be better than others, but where folks went wrong was NOT buying any name at all.....
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Old 06-09-2022, 07:43 AM
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How are those service companies treating you? What a treat!!
in terms of money in the portfolio, its been a long 7 years but its finally paying off. Havent seen much of an increase in pay at all since things have turned around though.

Sold some SLB at a 35% profit to help with a down payment on a new vehicle for the missus.

Currently holding SLB, STEP, Trican, GTE and SU. Im green on all of them.
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  #2276  
Old 06-09-2022, 04:50 PM
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Nice big selloff today, markets are nervous about CPI data tomorrow. Higher inflation reading and bonds/tech will sell off you would think. Or maybe not.
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Old 06-09-2022, 06:52 PM
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Nice big selloff today, markets are nervous about CPI data tomorrow. Higher inflation reading and bonds/tech will sell off you would think. Or maybe not.
Havenít bonds taken enough of a beat down.
I bought them for fixed income not capital gains but still hurts.
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  #2278  
Old 06-09-2022, 07:13 PM
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Havenít bonds taken enough of a beat down.
I bought them for fixed income not capital gains but still hurts.
No they have not taken anywhere near the beat down they will. By the time this is over they will drop another 70% from current levels. Unless u plan to hold them to maturity, and even if that was the original plan, dump them and buy back when rates peak.

Oil and gas stocks are a long ways from peaking. Even if oil were to drop back to 80 bucks there is still a ton of room for dividend increases, share buybacks and share price appreciation. As most of you know I think oil and gas is a poor long term buy and hold but over the next couple of years it is going to be really hard to find anything that performs remotely as good. Not going to switch it all into energy but I do have about 20 percent in it for now.
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  #2279  
Old 06-09-2022, 08:08 PM
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Havenít bonds taken enough of a beat down.
I bought them for fixed income not capital gains but still hurts.
Yeah, what a rough ride for something that has been an equity hedge for the last few decades. It was probably the easiest call in all of history to short bonds when rates hit zero/negative. Debt has never been more expensive in history. And its a humongous market. There is a tidal wave of crap rolling through the financial system thats just getting going unless inflation magically rolls over soon. I think anyway.
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Old 06-09-2022, 08:44 PM
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I donít actual own bonds but bond etf.
They pay out monthly at 3%.
They are actually only down 15% but historically before inflation, they would only seem to move + or -5%.
They are in there for the long run as fixed income. I wrote myself notes when I bought just to forget about them.

Interesting is that they pay 3.03% when I bought last year and even though they dropped 15%, they still pay 3.03%. I guess that is how they manage it.
Stocks yield would increase as stock drops.
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