Financial Markets Meltdown

[KGB]

Dean2, you are absolutely correct! Whoever is trying to time the market always looses. You can’t pick the bottom and you can’t pick the top either. Maybe you get lucky once, but that’s pretty much it.
Having a solid investment plan, a properly balanced portfolio and understanding your time frame - that’s a correct approach. Anything else is a speculation and gambling, not investing.

[Justfishin73]

Originally Posted by KGB

Dean2, you are absolutely correct! Whoever is trying to time the market always looses. You can’t pick the bottom and you can’t pick the top either. Maybe you get lucky once, but that’s pretty much it.
Having a solid investment plan, a properly balanced portfolio and understanding your time frame - that’s a correct approach. Anything else is a speculation and gambling, not investing.

Think we will have to agree to disagree on this one. Not always possible, but lightning does strike twice.
Jumped back to cash now, just cant shake that toppy feeling. Agree that helicopter money has to go somewhere, and daily, the market defies any sort of logic, think that's what scares me. I see another fairly severe correction coming, then full steam ahead in an election year.
Just my 2 cents of course.

[Austin]

My trigger will be when the stocks I watch get back around to the 52 week low but I suspect this next crash might take the market lower. So hard to tell because with all the money being injected by the government and stimulus should continue due to an upcoming US election,,, I suspect in late fall is my guess.

[MooseRiverTrapper]

We will not see those 52 week lows again. It took me awhile to realize it. But once I did I got in and started making money.

[KGB]

Originally Posted by Justfishin73

Think we will have to agree to disagree on this one. Not always possible, but lightning does strike twice.
Jumped back to cash now, just cant shake that toppy feeling. Agree that helicopter money has to go somewhere, and daily, the market defies any sort of logic, think that's what scares me. I see another fairly severe correction coming, then full steam ahead in an election year.
Just my 2 cents of course.

For sure brother, I know you have been lucky unloading your shares before the schit hit the fan in February. I was actually following your post closely... I almost hit the sell button too but decided to ride the storm instead... Glad I did! Otherwise I wouldn’t be back to where I had been before this ordeal. I also was able to buy some stocks when the markets started to recover and that helped too.

[Dean2]

TSX is at 15,560, within 2400 points of its all time previous high of 17,944 in mid Feb, just before the major Covid melt down. It has recovered 4,330 points of the 6,715 point drop. From its low of 11,229, it is approaching a 38% increase from the lows. One I watch as a benchmark on financials, Royal Bank is over $95, from a low of $72, for a gain of 32%. CIBC is back over $95 too and the financials have been laggards in the recovery.

The economy also seems to be recovering much faster than all of the forecasts said it would. As soon as things open up business seems to follow. Two dark clouds, GDP is way off, and unemployment is very high, which despite that many places can't get enough staff because a large number of people prefer to stay home and collect the very generous hand outs.

Going to be a very interesting couple of months, especially if we start seeing a large second wave. How governments react to the second wave will say a lot about their views on the first wave actions they took.

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by Dean2

TSX is at 15,560, within 2400 points of its all time previous high of 17,944 in mid Feb, just before the major Covid melt down. It has recovered 4,330 points of the 6,715 point drop. From its low of 11,229, it is approaching a 38% increase from the lows. One I watch as a benchmark on financials, Royal Bank is over $95, from a low of $72, for a gain of 32%. CIBC is back over $95 too and the financials have been laggards in the recovery.

The economy also seems to be recovering much faster than all of the forecasts said it would. As soon as things open up business seems to follow. Two dark clouds, GDP is way off, and unemployment is very high, which despite that many places can't get enough staff because a large number of people prefer to stay home and collect the very generous hand outs.

Going to be a very interesting couple of months, especially if we start seeing a large second wave. How governments react to the second wave will say a lot about their views on the first wave actions they took.

i think that gdp and unemplyment numbers was priced in , but with the fed pumping so much cash into the system, it got to find ways into the market. i think more then anything the situation between china and the US is something to worry about probably til us election .

[straight]

Anybody buying/selling today?

[Drewski Canuck]

"Going to be a very interesting couple of months, especially if we start seeing a large second wave. How governments react to the second wave will say a lot about their views on the first wave actions they took."

Dean2,

The steam is out of the Experts' severe predictions, now that we understand that most of the Covid 19 cases were the elderly and infirm.

Yes, some healthy people did die, but more recovered than died, and the system was not over run for the majority of the country.

Even the Alberta experience has seen very few deaths relative to population.

Now if the virus does mutate in a nasty way, it could be serious for a second wave. But there will be alot of close analysis this time, based on what we have learned from last winter, and how the fatality projections failed to materialize.

As for the economy, Governments realize that they cannot afford to shut it down. With China being beaten into a corner by the pandemic and over its handling of the pandemic, the shift to North American production will see economic benefits that did not exist beforehand.

Drewski

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by straight

Anybody buying/selling today?

Not specifically today. You can probably tell from my earlier posts, I have legged fully back in over late March, April and early May. With the large pop today it is tempting to take some profits, but I am a long term investor and right now, I don't see any likelihood of a significant pull back in the near future, so if you sell to take profit today, how long do you have to wait to buy back lower. If I had any weak performers left in my portfolio I would still be waiting till the market tops before unloading them, no point selling when stuff is moving up rapidly. However, I do stick by my earlier posts about not buying into airline, cruise or travel stocks, no matter how fast they are rising. I am very happy with the long term safety, dividend streams and viability of the sectors I laid out.

[mooseknuckle]

Old man recommended Gogo Inc. Wowzers!! Last 5 days has been very profitable. May cash out by days end.

[fishtank]

everything been up in the last fewdays, energy and oil got a nice bump today. its friday so yeah probably take some profit and enjoy the weekend .

[Twisted Canuck]

So what is driving this today? DOW up almost a thousand points? Over 27K...TSX well over 15K....not complaining, the last few days I've seen significant recovery on my portfolio. Not that it really matters in a way as I've had a long term buy and hold, dividend generating porfolio, but the bottom line still looks better.

[Dean2]

TC

Job numbers in Canada and the US came in way better than expected. Places where they have opened up are showing much faster economic recovery than anyone expected or forcasted. Governments are still flushing HUGE amounts of cash into the system, Trudeau just rolled out another 27 Billion this morning. His vote buying knows no bounds. That money has to go somewhere and most of it is going into the stock market.

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by Dean2

TC

Job numbers in Canada and the US came in way better than expected. Places where they have opened up are showing much faster economic recovery than anyone expected or forcasted. Governments are still flushing HUGE amounts of cash into the system, Trudeau just rolled out another 27 Billion this morning. His vote buying knows no bounds. That money has to go somewhere and most of it is going into the stock market.

It’s all feel good news. Everything it’s good until the bubble burst. Any given new drive the market up because. All this extra printed money and money that that exited few month ago is getting back In .

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by fishtank

It’s all feel good news. Everything it’s good until the bubble burst. Any given new drive the market up because. All this extra printed money and money that that exited few month ago is getting back In .

I don't agree that it is feel good news, unless you are saying the reports are wrong. I do agree with you that there is a lot of money that was on the sidelines that is rapidly flowing back into the market, along with all the new money. We are also at the stage where FOMO is starting to really hit the retail investors. Short sellers, and hedge funds have huge margin calls to deal with so are having to unwind large positions. The managers that have sat on the sidelines for far too long waiting for a bigger dip are going to have a real tough time when their quarterly reports come out.

Failure to buy when there is blood in the streets is the classic replay of what happens in every single market downdraft. When the rivers run red there is no shortage of people who predict it will never come back or it will take forever. They talk about the new normal, old value investing is dead, there are better opportunities on the growth side and a ton of other nonsense because it sounds smart. Almost every analyst on TV said the Canadian Banks were going to take a huge hit to their share prices and are basically univestable for the next 24 months min. The fact they lose there asses no one seems to remember. If you want clear proof, look at the results of the past picks for the guys that show up on BNN. Listening to these televised experts is a fast way to the poor house.

How many were willing to come out and call a V recovery, I certainly didn't see any on TV except for Barry Schwartz, who got a lot of negative feedback, or in the published articles. Even large fund managers got killed in this downdraft, look at Berkshire Hathaway with airlines, travel and Kraft stocks. The mistake I see with Berkshire is they bailed on the airlines after they already hit bottom, so even they aren't immune to panic selling. If this was as easy as so many make it sound, everyone would be making millions. The long and short, V recovery, U recovery or multi year extended recovery, you need to buy when stocks are cheap, not necessarily when they are the cheapest possible. It really is very tough to stick to your guns and your plan. Anyone that doesn't have a detailed plan with specific goals and triggers to live with will never be comfortable or happy.

[Justfishin73]

I trust those US job Numbers about as much as I trust trump

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by Justfishin73

I trust those US job Numbers about as much as I trust trump

Even if they are wrong by a lot, one bad data point does not invalidate all the other information that is available.

[Twisted Canuck]

Thanks for your contribution here Dean, I appreciate your insight. And, I agree that without a plan (like buying good quality hi cap dividend paying stocks in well managed companies with sound fundamentals and balance sheets!)...you will be toast. It's hard to turn feelings off, when it comes to your life's work and retirement.

[fishtank]

hopefully its a smooth recovery...but will have to see about it in the fall about the so call second wave.. or the election .

[MooseRiverTrapper]

Some pretty strong days!!!

[Justfishin73]

Originally Posted by Justfishin73

Think we will have to agree to disagree on this one. Not always possible, but lightning does strike twice.
Jumped back to cash now, just cant shake that toppy feeling. Agree that helicopter money has to go somewhere, and daily, the market defies any sort of logic, think that's what scares me. I see another fairly severe correction coming, then full steam ahead in an election year.
Just my 2 cents of course.

Killed me to watch the gains on the Nasdaq the past week being out, but seeing it given back today as I thought it would makes me feel a little better

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by Justfishin73

Killed me to watch the gains on the Nasdaq the past week being out, but seeing it given back today as I thought it would makes me feel a little better

Well, not really sure what you call giving it back; Nasdaq has gone from 6680 to 9785 after this mornings pull back. It was at 10,020 so it has given back 235 points this morning of its 3340 point gain.

The guys still sitting on the sidelines waiting for the markets to retest the Mar 21 lows have missed a 50% gain on the Nasdaq and close to that much on the Dow and TSX. Probably one of the best buying opportunities most people will see in their lifetime. Will markets be volatile going forward, for sure. Are we going to test the Mar lows again, I highly doubt it and if you bought in late march early April you are still well positioned to absorb a large re-trancement.

I am pretty sure I would not be very happy about seeing a 225 point drop after missing a +3000 point gain in just over a month and a half.

[Justfishin73]

Originally Posted by Dean2

Well, not really sure what you call giving it back; Nasdaq has gone from 6680 to 9785 after this mornings pull back. It was at 10,020 so it has given back 235 points this morning of its 3340 point gain.

The guys still sitting on the sidelines waiting for the markets to retest the Mar 21 lows have missed a 50% gain on the Nasdaq and close to that much on the Dow and TSX. Probably one of the best buying opportunities most people will see in their lifetime. Will markets be volatile going forward, for sure. Are we going to test the Mar lows again, I highly doubt it and if you bought in late march early April you are still well positioned to absorb a large re-trancement.

I am pretty sure I would not be very happy about seeing a 225 point drop after missing a +3000 point gain in just over a month and a half.

Oh, I didn't miss anything, no complaints at all---

out Feb 14th---------Nasdaq--9731
in March 23rd -------Nasdaq--6860
out May 29th--------Nasdaq--9489

All my exit and re-entry posts are in this thread. I havent been sitting on the sidelines--not sure why you would think that.

[Dean2]

JF

I am aware that you indicated in other posts that you got out in Feb, fully back in on March 23, out on May 29th. You did not miss the big run up, unlike so many others. Your ability to time the markets is unique and so are the balls required to go all in on Mar 23. I repeat, anyone that got out and stayed out has missed a huge gain.

[Justfishin73]

Originally Posted by Dean2

JF

I am aware that you indicated in other posts that you got out in Feb, fully back in on March 23, out on May 29th. You did not miss the big run up, unlike so many others. Your ability to time the markets is unique and so are the balls required to go all in on Mar 23. I repeat, anyone that got out and stayed out has missed a huge gain.

Ill throw a bit of luck in there too---DOW down 1350--wow

[KGB]

Hey I’m just curious- are you investing in individual stocks or sectors or funds? The reason why I’m asking- let’s say you have a portfolio of 50 stocks. So do you sell them all in one day and then you buy them all back?

[Justfishin73]

Originally Posted by KGB

Hey I’m just curious- are you investing in individual stocks or sectors or funds? The reason why I’m asking- let’s say you have a portfolio of 50 stocks. So do you sell them all in one day and then you buy them all back?

Trading funds heavily based on the Nasdaq blue-chips and trying to retain what hair I have left

[pikeman06]

DOW is down almost 6 percent or 1600 points or something today.....if anyone seen that coming i would like shake their hand. The very reason I'm staying outta the stock market probably for the rest of the year. Must be some big players taking profits.

[Justfishin73]

Look out for that last hour-I could see -2000