Financial Markets Meltdown

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by flydude

Anyone looking at ARM's IPO today? Up 20% right now ($51.00 Expected opening price to $61.23) Actually opened at $56.10

Have a look at the results of the last 100 IPOs. Issued price versus current share price. Could this one buck the well defined trend, maybe, some have.

https://www.iposcoop.com/last-100-ipos/

https://stockanalysis.com/ipos/

[tirebob]

Hey Dean... What are you thoughts on paying down a mortgage with extra cash right now instead of investing? With the rates and the market being what it is, is there an advantage to one or the other?

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by tirebob

Hey Dean... What are you thoughts on paying down a mortgage with extra cash right now instead of investing? With the rates and the market being what it is, is there an advantage to one or the other?

Can't answer without more info. Completely depends on what the current interest rate is, is it fixed or variable, and how long you have until it renews. Can you write off your interest? Feel free to text or call me if you don't want to post it here.

[tirebob]

Originally Posted by Dean2

Can't answer without more info. Completely depends on what the current interest rate is, is it fixed or variable, and how long you have until it renews. Can you write off your interest? Feel free to text or call me if you don't want to post it here.

No worries at all... We locked into a fixed mortgage just recently at 4.8% for four years. Can't write off the interest... This is our personal property and not attached to any business interests.

This is the very first time we ever locked in a rate. We have always done variable but the times being weird we freaked out a bit and committed to a consistent mortgage payment for a term.

[Cement Bench]

Originally Posted by tirebob

Hey Dean... What are you thoughts on paying down a mortgage with extra cash right now instead of investing? With the rates and the market being what it is, is there an advantage to one or the other?

hey not Dean

always put money on your mortgage to pay it off. ALWAYS

here is my story

built house in 1990, lived in new trailer starting in 1983 for 7 years with new wife and bought a 1/4 of land
both trailer and land paid off in 1986 and saved for 5 years

had a bunch of money and built a 2 storey in 1990,

CASHED IN 150 GRAND IN RRSP’S between me and the wifey, stopped contributing for 3 years to follow revenue Canada so wifey RRSP was not taxed in my name

so paid about 22000 yes twenty two thousand dollars in taxes. OUCH, NOT

interest rates were about 16 % on a 5 year mortgage so saved 16% of 125,000
yes of one hundred and twenty five thousand dollars

Saved just over 20000 TWENTY THOUSAND DOLLARS A YEAR ON THE MORTGAGE BY CASHING IN THE RRSP’S

a 90,000 mortgage was paid off in 6 years with the savings as we had other expenses like 2 new vehicles

I did not care about investments at that time as new nothing about the stock market but new A LOT ABOUT DEBT THAT CSRRYS ON YEAR AFTER YEAR

now the interest rates are down to what 6 percent for 5 year mortgage or so

BUT

if your house is paid for

AND NO D-I-V-O-R-C-E- song in the future, what is not to like

one of the best decisions I ever made

I AM A DOWN SIDE RISK KIND OF GUY

SSOOOOOOOOOOOO

I predict a 50% chance of a 2008 type recession in the next 4 years

pay your house off, sell all your stocks for cash and invest in 4 % interest at bank for now

When and if the correction comes buy bank stocks unless you have a million dollars floating around and get between 6-10 % dividend income on,bank stocks and hold them until you retire

Just my thoughts, lots of discussion around stock market but just

ASK THE GUYS WHO HAVE LOST MONEY OVER THE LAST DECADE ABOUT OAYING OFF THEIR HOUSE OR HAVING STOCKS UNDER WATER

the only thing guaranteed by paying off yiur house is the wife might or might not stay,

she might take up quilting to spend your money on stash

Later but just trying to help

never liked debt and never will

but I can tell you that having 10-15 cash when upgrading vehicle to not have to pay interest feels like a million bucks

No debt s good debt for me

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by tirebob

No worries at all... We locked into a fixed mortgage just recently at 4.8% for four years. Can't write off the interest... This is our personal property and not attached to any business interests.

This is the very first time we ever locked in a rate. We have always done variable but the times being weird we freaked out a bit and committed to a consistent mortgage payment for a term.

That is relatively high but not extreme and you have 4 years till renewal. It should not be difficult to invest and get a return that exceeds the 4.8% interest rate, especially over 4 years. Pay the mortgage down at maturity. Assume you have a $200,000 mortgage and you have $200,000 cash. Even if you invest 200,000 at 4.8% interest and pay 4.8% on the mortgage, the investment will earn more than you pay on the mortgage. The simple explanation is the mortgage debt reduces every month so you pay 4.8% on a smaller and smaller balance, the investment doesn't.

For illustration purposes

200,000 at 4.8% with a 15 year am. Payment 1560.83/m Balance owing after 48 months $159,826.98 Payments made 74,920, Interest paid 34,726, principal reduced 40,1273. Interest on 200,000 at 4.8% over 4 years, with no compounding, $38,400, with compounding approx $40,500.

Next point:

Given you are a business owner, I would be focused on making that interest tax deductible. There are many ways of doing that but effectively you need to borrow against the house to invest in the business or income earning assets like rental property, stock, bonds etc. This usually entails using current investments or cash to pay off the residential mortgage and then borrowing the same amount back and buying stocks, bonds or investing in the business.

Two major issues, you are usually limited to 10-20% annual prepayment without penalty, but you can usually negotiate no prepayment penalty with you bank as long as you are borrowing the same amount right back at the same or a higher interest rate. Second issue is getting the bank to work with you to accomplish converting your mortgage debt to tax deductible investment debt.

[tirebob]

Originally Posted by Dean2

That is relatively high but not extreme and you have 4 years till renewal. It should not be difficult to invest and get a return that exceeds the 4.8% interest rate, especially over 4 years. Pay the mortgage down at maturity. Assume you have a $200,000 mortgage and you have $200,000 cash. Even if you invest 200,000 at 4.8% interest and pay 4.8% on the mortgage, the investment will earn more than you pay on the mortgage. The simple explanation is the mortgage debt reduces every month so you pay 4.8% on a smaller and smaller balance, the investment doesn't.

For illustration purposes

200,000 at 4.8% with a 15 year am. Payment 1560.83/m Balance owing after 48 months $159,826.98 Payments made 74,920, Interest paid 34,726, principal reduced 40,1273. Interest on 200,000 at 4.8% over 4 years, with no compounding, $38,400, with compounding approx $40,500.

Next point:

Given you are a business owner, I would be focused on making that interest tax deductible. There are many ways of doing that but effectively you need to borrow against the house to invest in the business or income earning assets like rental property, stock, bonds etc. This usually entails using current investments or cash to pay off the residential mortgage and then borrowing the same amount back and buying stocks, bonds or investing in the business.

Two major issues, you are usually limited to 20% annual prepayment without penalty, but you can usually negotiate no prepayment penalty with you bank as long as you are borrowing the same amount right back at the same or a higher interest rate. Second issue is getting the bank to work with you to accomplish converting your mortgage debt to tax deductible investment debt.

Thanks for that Dean... Much appreciated!

[Trochu]

Originally Posted by tirebob

Hey Dean... What are you thoughts on paying down a mortgage with extra cash right now instead of investing? With the rates and the market being what it is, is there an advantage to one or the other?

Also not Dean, but thought I'd chip in too....

I look at decisions such as this by reversing them. If your house was paid off, would you take out a mortgage to invest that capital? The answer to that question may help you decide.

[tirebob]

Originally Posted by Trochu

Also not Dean, but thought I'd chip in too....

I look at decisions such as this by reversing them. If your house was paid off, would you take out a mortgage to invest that capital? The answer to that question may help you decide.

I hear ya... Thing is, I realize it is maybe not the prudent thing but I just can't wrap my head around borrowing money from the bank to invest in the market. It gives me an uneasy feeling paying interest in hopes of generating more than that value also in interest. It seems to me like you are dancing with the devil for a relatively small difference and you could just as easily take a hit versus making a small profit. A coin flip if you will.

Let me qualify that by saying that is purely an emotion based feeling and nothing based on a real knowledge of investing.

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by tirebob

I hear ya... Thing is, I realize it is maybe not the prudent thing but I just can't wrap my head around borrowing money from the bank to invest in the market. It gives me an uneasy feeling paying interest in hopes of generating more than that value also in interest. It seems to me like you are dancing with the devil for a relatively small difference and you could just as easily take a hit versus making a small profit. A coin flip if you will.

Let me qualify that by saying that is purely an emotion based feeling and nothing based on a real knowledge of investing.

RBC current posted GIC rates. All deposits are CDIC insured. Effectively zero risk of capital loss and the interest income is fixed. Guy has to do what he can sleep with, but this is not the same as buying Stocks in the stock market. Hold the GIC to maturity and you are guaranteed your principal and interest back. I understand being risk averse, but I cannot see being afraid of something that has absolutely zero risk or downside. If RBC goes broke, AND the Canadian Gov defaults on CDIC, we all have much bigger problems than the money we have tied up in GICs.

Special GIC Rates

Star3.00%1 on a 1 year term
Cashable GIC
Posted rate 2.25
%

Buy Now

Star 5.10%1 on a 1 year term
Non-Redeemable GIC
Posted rate 4.05
%

Buy Now

Star 5.20%1 on a 2 year term
Non-Redeemable GIC
Posted rate 4.25
%

Buy Now

Star 4.35%1 on an 5 year term
Non-Redeemable GIC
Posted rate 3.95
%

Buy Now

[flydude]

Originally Posted by flydude

Anyone looking at ARM's IPO today? Up 20% right now ($51.00 Expected opening price to $61.23) Actually opened at $56.10

Originally Posted by Dean2

Have a look at the results of the last 100 IPOs. Issued price versus current share price. Could this one buck the well defined trend, maybe, some have.

https://www.iposcoop.com/last-100-ipos/

https://stockanalysis.com/ipos/

Still bucking that trend this morning. $67.40 last check, 20% higher that the actual opening price. We'll see what happens just before close this afternoon

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by flydude

Still bucking that trend this morning. $67.40 last check, 20% higher that the actual opening price. We'll see what happens just before close this afternoon

Hope you do REALLY well with ARM. Keep us updated on the progress, I am sure quite a few, besides me, would be interested in your results.

[Jim Blake]

Sold our FRU this morning and bought more HSX.

[eric2381]

Originally Posted by Jim Blake

Sold our FRU this morning and bought more HSX.

Just curious, do you mind saying your reasoning for this? Thanks.

[Jim Blake]

Originally Posted by eric2381

Just curious, do you mind saying your reasoning for this? Thanks.

I felt that FRU is running out of momentum. The price of oil has jumped significantly and their share price hasn't tracked that at all. HSX is a great performing ETF with ultra low fees.

Maybe Dean can weigh in and give his perspective. It may prove to be wrong, but just an observation on my part initiated the move.

They have a great dividend but can they sustain it? JMHO

[eric2381]

Thanks. So it was short term price action that swayed you.

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by Jim Blake

I felt that FRU is running out of momentum. The price of oil has jumped significantly and their share price hasn't tracked that at all. HSX is a great performing ETF with ultra low fees.

Maybe Dean can weigh in and give his perspective. It may prove to be wrong, but just an observation on my part initiated the move.

They have a great dividend but can they sustain it? JMHO

I have a position in FRU that is over size by a long shot. I bought FRU with an average cost below $6. At today's prices it is 2.5X what I paid for it. I trimmed some at $17. I need to trim a lot more to get it down to a proper weight of about 3% max.

The reason I have not trimmed it faster is: FRU has nearly no debt, and has no operating risk, they are a straight Royalty company. At today's dividend, 9 cents per month or $1.08 per year, which is 7.2%, they are at a 60% payout with $70 oil. At $90 oil they are under 50%. FRU is profitable at $30 and above oil, though the dividend would need to be adjusted if oil dropped below $55-60 for long.

Like I said above I need to trim it a bunch, but oil prices are rising going into winter, so am looking to sell it down on strength. Here is my post from Christmas 2022. As you can see I have been talking about selling down FRU for quite a while, have done some but not as much as needed.

Issue is, you need to pay tax on the gain and find as good or better a place to deploy the after tax money. My dividend yield on cost is 18%, yield on current price is 7.2%, and Capital Gains tax is marginal tax rate on 50% of the net gain, so basically tax is $2.25 a share.

(Just for clarity, I now hold very little ZWU, it comprises less than 1% of the portfolio now. Those funds are in HXS and HXT as the dividend income is no longer required, and its composition being more than 50% return of cpaital, is no longer tax advantageous to us, and the capital gains are better in the ETFs.)

Originally Posted by Dean2

I have not posted for a very long time nor do I intend to going forward. This is my Christmas post wishing you all a very Merry Christmas.

Once again, this is not investment advice, merely relaying what I do personally. It is up to you to do your own research, assess your risk tolerances, goals and situation. Consult a quality investment adviser if you don’t have the skills to do the research yourself.

I have posted a couple of model portfolios over the past few years and continue to use them as a basis for evaluating stocks for the various portfolios. Our combined personal portfolio contains a lot of those stocks. Our current holdings ranked in order of largest to smallest percentage of the portfolio:

1. Freehold Royalties 13.2%
2. ZWU 13.4%
3. Royal Bank 10%
4. Pembina Pipeline 9%
5. BCE 6.3%
6. TD 6.2%
7. Telus 6%
8. TransCanada Pipe 6%
9. Alta Gas 5.8%
10. Ensign Energy 5.0%
11. Canadian Utilities 3.2%
12. U.S. Holdings being Visa and Coke 2.9%
13. REITS 1.4%
14. Emera 1.1%
15. Assorted small holdings 1%
16. Cash 9.1%

The only reason FRU and ESI are such large components is the purchase price versus current value and I have yet to trim those positions. FRU has more than doubled and ESI is 4X the cost base. They would never normally represent this large a part of my portfolio. They would typically be in the 3% range for FRU and 1% for ESI.

Below is the graph from the RBC Direct Investing pages showing growth of the portfolio over the past 2 years. It has for comparison the RBC Conservative Growth Portfolio (Typical 60/40 allocation) recommended by most advisers, and what most Conservative Balanced Mutual funds would produce. It also has the TSX performance as a Benchmark over the same period of time.

With the exception of FRU and ESI all the stocks listed are long term holds in the portfolio and at their normal weightings. Sixty four percent of the portfolio has a Drip in place, the other 36% produces the dividend revenue that funds our living costs. The only stock that does not pay a dividend is ESI. The weighted average dividend yield is 6.09% for the non-drip investments (ZWU resides in the no-drip portfolio), and 5.3% for the drip part of the portfolio.

Growth from January 2021 is 41% and from January 2020 it is 34%. The Conservative Balanced portfolio would have produced -2.5% and 6.0% respectively and the TSX 23% and 30.1%.

The point of this is, by holding through the recent volatility that started in March 2020, growth has still been very good while also producing virtually tax free dividend income to live on. Slightly beating the TSX index over the last three years, and significantly over the last 2 years, while producing enough income to live on works out quite well as index based ETFs and most mutual funds produce no income stream beyond the capital appreciation.
Had I tried to time the market over the last three years, I would have had to pay capital gains and it is highly unlikely I could have timed even half of the bottoms and tops. Missing out on even 30 days of up trend in the last 24 months, making sure it wasn’t a dead cat bounce, suckers rally, et al, would have negatively affected growth quite dramatically.

I hope some of you find this interesting and useful. Once again, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all.

[Dean2]

Update on ARM for those interested. It came out of the gate strong at $69 on Sept 14th. Since its first day it has sold down to $57.36 today, on fairly large volume. Even at today's price it is trading at 120 times earnings and their sales actually shrank over the last 6 months. Will be interesting to watch it over the next few weeks.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by Dean2

I have a position in FRU that is over size by a long shot. I bought FRU with an average cost below $6. At today's prices it is 2.5X what I paid for it. I trimmed some at $17. I need to trim a lot more to get it down to a proper weight of about 3% max.

The reason I have not trimmed it faster is: FRU has nearly no debt, and has no operating risk, they are a straight Royalty company. At today's dividend, 9 cents per month or $1.08 per year, which is 7.2%, they are at a 60% payout with $70 oil. At $90 oil they are under 50%. FRU is profitable at $30 and above oil, though the dividend would need to be adjusted if oil dropped below $55-60 for long.

Like I said above I need to trim it a bunch, but oil prices are rising going into winter, so am looking to sell it down on strength. Here is my post from Christmas 2022. As you can see I have been talking about selling down FRU for quite a while, have done some but not as much as needed.

Issue is, you need to pay tax on the gain and find as good or better a place to deploy the after tax money. My dividend yield on cost is 18%, yield on current price is 7.2%, and Capital Gains tax is marginal tax rate on 50% of the net gain, so basically tax is $2.25 a share.

(Just for clarity, I now hold very little ZWU, it comprises less than 1% of the portfolio now. Those funds are in HXS and HXT as the dividend income is no longer required, and its composition being more than 50% return of cpaital, is no longer tax advantageous to us, and the capital gains are better in the ETFs.)

Hey Dean.

What’s your thoughts about CVE as it is approaching the $30 target of many analysts.

Do you see continued rising oil prices helping… except WCS seems weak? I recall CVE hit $30 but when oil price his $140.

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Hey Dean.

What’s your thoughts about CVE as it is approaching the $30 target of many analysts.

Do you see continued rising oil prices helping… except WCS seems weak? I recall CVE hit $30 but when oil price his $140.

I don't hold any CVE and haven't for a long time. I also don't follow it closely so can't provide a quality opinion on it. What I can say from a quick look, very low dividend and still packing significant debt. No idea what their capital spending plan is this year and for the next 2 after that. It would be something I would look hard at, along with their reserves and draw down rates. How much un-drilled land are they sitting on, etc.

[Map Maker]

I’m about 40% gic and 50% stock with 10% cash and feel real comfortable right now.
Sold some losers ( disney) to buy BCE. Good time to rebalance with Telus, BCE, TRP and big banks all done right now.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by Dean2

I don't hold any CVE and haven't for a long time. I also don't follow it closely so can't provide a quality opinion on it. What I can say from a quick look, very low dividend and still packing significant debt. No idea what their capital spending plan is this year and for the next 2 after that. It would be something I would look hard at, along with their reserves and draw down rates. How much un-drilled land are they sitting on, etc.

Cool. Thanks.

On a more general topic… why are oil stocks falling as oil commodity prices are rising?

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Cool. Thanks.

On a more general topic… why are oil stocks falling as oil commodity prices are rising?

Oil, and Nat gas prices have a correlation to the prices of the producers of those products, but it is NOT a linear relationship. At the most basic level, you have to look at the producers hedging strategy. Most simple example, if a producer hedges 100% of their production at $70, oil going up from $70 to $95 does them zero good. Even if they hedge 0%, oil price to SP will also depend on the markets view of the future price of oil.Next you have to look at what they produce, light oil, heavy oil, where is it produced and is their pipe capacity to ship it, does it need to go by rail, do they refine any of their own product, do they retail any of it. On top of that, what is their Free Cash Flow, FCF, what is their land base, draw down rates, expected production life of existing wells, capital expenditure plan, debt levels and structure,land base and locations.

You will notice I own no Oil or Gas producers or refiners. Two main reasons, I am not prepared to invest the time necessary to analyse all the factors above, plus a few more, that affect each company. Second reason, Oil and Gas is a declining industry that is also out of favour with a large part of the investing world. For now, royalty companies and pipelines are less affected than the actual producers, but there will soon come a time where I will sell out of those as well.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by Dean2

Oil, and Nat gas prices have a correlation to the prices of the producers of those products, but it is NOT a linear relationship. At the most basic level, you have to look at the producers hedging strategy. Most simple example, if a producer hedges 100% of their production at $70, oil going up from $70 to $95 does them zero good. Even if they hedge 0%, oil price to SP will also depend on the markets view of the future price of oil.Next you have to look at what they produce, light oil, heavy oil, where is it produced and is their pipe capacity to ship it, does it need to go by rail, do they refine any of their own product, do they retail any of it. On top of that, what is their Free Cash Flow, FCF, what is their land base, draw down rates, expected production life of existing wells, capital expenditure plan, debt levels and structure,land base and locations.

You will notice I own no Oil or Gas producers or refiners. Two main reasons, I am not prepared to invest the time necessary to analyse all the factors above, plus a few more, that affect each company. Second reason, Oil and Gas is a declining industry that is also out of favour with a large part of the investing world. For now, royalty companies and pipelines are less affected than the actual producers, but there will soon come a time where I will sell out of those as well.

Thanks

[eric2381]

Oil useage now is higher than it’s ever ever ever been. And it will continue to rise. As the population of humans continues to increase and the quality of life for those humans continues to increase, oil useage will only go up. There is no replacement. And people are unwilling to accept a lower standard of living. Money and huge profits and opportunity for investors will sway people to invest in the sector. Money rules peoples’ emotions. It’ll be interesting to see how things pan out in the next few years.

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by eric2381

Oil useage now is higher than it’s ever ever ever been. And it will continue to rise. As the population of humans continues to increase and the quality of life for those humans continues to increase, oil useage will only go up. There is no replacement. And people are unwilling to accept a lower standard of living. Money and huge profits and opportunity for investors will sway people to invest in the sector. Money rules peoples’ emotions. It’ll be interesting to see how things pan out in the next few years.

A few Pipeline stocks are near 52 week low .

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by fishtank

A few Pipeline stocks are near 52 week low .

Oil and gas prices have no bearing on Pipeline share prices. Virtually 100% of pipe capacity is contracted on a take or pay basis, so even if a producer stops shipping because Oil prices are too low, production problems etc, he has to pay for his pipeline capacity. He can sell the space to another producer but one way or the other, he pays the contracted rate and volume.

Pipeline share prices behave like Utilities. In fact they are effectively a utility and classed that way in many ETFs and mutual funds. The price of Pipelines goes up and down with the interest rates because most people hold them for the dividend stream and as interest rates go up, they compete with the dividend paying stocks, like utilities. Pipeline are down, so are most electrical, gas,telecommunication and water utilities.

As one example of communications, a utility dominated in Canada by 3 companies in a true Oligopoly, BCE is yielding over 7% right now as the share price has come off a long ways. At that yield, your money doubles every 10 years, whether the share price goes up or not, and dividend income outside of registered plans, is taxed far more favourably than interest income, but there is the risk attached to the share price dropping. GICs and Gov bonds are basically risk free if held to maturity, so the yield differential is the risk premium.

If rates rise even more in the fight to tame inflation, expect the Share Price of utilities, pipelines etc to drop some more.

[Dean2]

ARM is trading at $50.47 this morning. So less than a week from the issue it is trading below the offer price. It hit its high of $69 on the release date, and has been on a steady decline every day since. This one is following the usual IPO pattern. Will be interested to see where it bottoms out and finds longer term support.

The odds of both the Fed and Bank of Canada increasing rates has increased a lot the last week, and the timeline for higher rates to remain in place has extended. The longer side of the yield curve is moving up. Still inverted, but not nearly as much as it was.

Trudope's antics continue to make us a laughing stock around the world. WE have become irrelevant on the world political stage, and for a country so heavily dependant on exports and trade, that is a very bad thing. Add to that the disastrous internal fiscal and monetary policy and you can see why our economy is hurting, and that is going to get worse until the Liberal/NDP cabal is removed from power.

Glad it is hunting season. Gives me some distraction from watching these idiots implode a great country.

[Dean2]

The Canadian stocks are taking quite a kicking the last few weeks, especially the traditional value/dividend paying stocks. Government over spending is still a concern here and in the states, the Chinese economy is on its heals and getting worse, inflation remains stubbornly high, as do wage gains and employment. Interest rates will be high for longer and it is a pretty reasonable bet we haven't seen the last of the increases.

Despite all the current doom and gloom, the TSX and S&P are still both up a lot from where they were in Feb 2020, just before the Covid meltdown. TSX is at 19,200 versus 17,900, had S&P is 4,270 versus 3,367. Remember, successful investing is a long term game. Buy the quality stocks that pay good, solid dividends and where the dividends grow over time. Then try not to watch the daily ups and downs, it will just drive you nuts and make most folks anxious. If your average dividend yield is only 5%, your money still doubles every 14 years, even if the share price stays flat, which it doesn't over that period in the right stocks.

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

[whitetail Junkie]

Originally Posted by Dean2

The Canadian stocks are taking quite a kicking the last few weeks, especially the traditional value/dividend paying stocks. Government over spending is still a concern here and in the states, the Chinese economy is on its heals and getting worse, inflation remains stubbornly high, as do wage gains and employment. Interest rates will be high for longer and it is a pretty reasonable bet we haven't seen the last of the increases.

Despite all the current doom and gloom, the TSX and S&P are still both up a lot from where they were in Feb 2020, just before the Covid meltdown. TSX is at 19,200 versus 17,900, had S&P is 4,270 versus 3,367. Remember, successful investing is a long term game. Buy the quality stocks that pay good, solid dividends and where the dividends grow over time. Then try not to watch the daily ups and downs, it will just drive you nuts and make most folks anxious. If your average dividend yield is only 5%, your money still doubles every 14 years, even if the share price stays flat, which it doesn't over that period in the right stocks.

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

Or maybe we are already up the creek without a paddle and dont even know it and just like that we wake up one morning and its October 1929 all over again and our digital illusions of wealth are worthless