UCP and Kenny's new riding

densa44 · #1 10-29-2017, 08:30 PM

I believe that Dave Rodney from Calgary Lougheed has resigned as of Nov. 1 2017 to make way for Mr. Kenny to run for a seat in the Alberta Legislature.

So it was a conservative not wildrose seat, he won his seat with 35% of the popular vote in the last election. Thus the NDs will see the seat as in play.

I would guess that the government will look for a carer woman or Calgary alderman (person) to run against JK.

It is anyone's guess when Notely will call the election.

Ball's out!

rafhone · #2 10-29-2017, 11:28 PM

Sounds about right.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...-upc-1.4377594

Clean house Kenny!

Okotokian · #3 10-30-2017, 09:26 AM

Looks like a safe seat. It's always voted PC since riding was created. Combined PC/WR vote in the last election was 63%.

Kanonfodder · #4 10-30-2017, 09:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by okotokian

looks like a safe seat. It's always voted pc since riding was created. Combined pc/wr vote in the last election was 63%.

^^^^ this

densa44 · #5 10-30-2017, 11:01 AM

The Premier can wait up to 180 days before a by-election call and my guess is that it will be close to that.

Although by-elections are notoriously not well attended and have low voter turn out, this one could be interesting.

What percent of the WR supports will vote for JK?
What percent of them will vote for the ND candidate?
Will the votes show how well the merger has worked in the minds of the WR voters?

What if JK just barely wins?
What if he loses?

All food for thought through the up coming winter.

Bushmaster · #6 10-30-2017, 11:12 AM

I don't know anything about Calgary politics but it seems to me people should be coming out to vote AGAINST the NDP.

raab · #7 10-30-2017, 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by densa44

The Premier can wait up to 180 days before a by-election call and my guess is that it will be close to that.

Although by-elections are notoriously not well attended and have low voter turn out, this one could be interesting.

What percent of the WR supports will vote for JK?
What percent of them will vote for the ND candidate?
Will the votes show how well the merger has worked in the minds of the WR voters?

What if JK just barely wins?
What if he loses?

All food for thought through the up coming winter.

All WR supporters should back Kenney. I'm not a fan of him, but he's miles better then Notley.

HowSwedeItIs · #8 10-30-2017, 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raab

All WR supporters should back Kenney. I'm not a fan of him, but he's miles better then Notley.

Agreed- Anybody who would vote for the NDP because of Jason Kenney should just be honest with themselves and switch parties

hal53 · #9 10-30-2017, 12:39 PM

The bigger question is....do you think the NDP will actually put the candidates name on the lawn signs this time????

Badgerbadger · #10 10-30-2017, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by densa44

The Premier can wait up to 180 days before a by-election call and my guess is that it will be close to that.

Although by-elections are notoriously not well attended and have low voter turn out, this one could be interesting.

What percent of the WR supports will vote for JK?
What percent of them will vote for the ND candidate?
Will the votes show how well the merger has worked in the minds of the WR voters?

What if JK just barely wins?
What if he loses?

All food for thought through the up coming winter.

I think you're neglecting the Alberta Party. They offer a choice where one doesn't have to hold one's nose and vote for either the UCP or NDP. The Liberals used to do ok in that riding, so I'd say there's a lot of centrists to be tapped.

Okotokian · #11 10-30-2017, 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hal53

The bigger question is....do you think the NDP will actually put the candidates name on the lawn signs this time????

Oh yeah. They got a ton of incumbents who like the MLA pay packet a whole lot more than the barista and waiter jobs most used to have. They will go for it hard.

Okotokian · #12 10-30-2017, 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Badgerbadger

I think you're neglecting the Alberta Party. .

Everyone neglects the Alberta Party. Liberal Lite.

And no one expects the Spanish Inquisition.

Badgerbadger · #13 10-30-2017, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Okotokian

Everyone neglects the Alberta Party. Liberal Lite.

I hope the UCP follows this philosophy, because I think it'd be HILARIOUS to see Kenny beaten by some underdog.

Smokey · #14 10-30-2017, 01:33 PM

I'll hold my nose and vote for Kenny. I'm just glad 2019 Notley is gone.

Let the PC corruption begin, sigh.

Okotokian · #15 10-30-2017, 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Badgerbadger

I hope the UCP follows this philosophy, because I think it'd be HILARIOUS to see Kenny beaten by some underdog.

So Albertans liked being run by a bunch of neophyte NDP'ers that they will get rid of them and bring in a bunch of neophyte Alberta Party rookies? OK, you are entitled to your opinion. It could happen. Remember though, just because they name their party after the province, that doesn't make them Brad Wall and the Saskatchewan Party. They are still just Liberals who thought they could never win in Alberta and call themselves Liberals.

markg · #16 10-30-2017, 02:17 PM

I wish they would have given hime Derrick Fidlebrants riding. That blow hard needs to go.

Plus it would mean the Premier would come from my riding and that is always handy.

Okotokian · #17 10-30-2017, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by markg

I wish they would have given hime Derrick Fidlebrants riding. That blow hard needs to go.

Plus it would mean the Premier would come from my riding and that is always handy.

I think he had to take over a PC riding. If it had looked like he pushed out a WildRoser that might have created friction. He wants to get that group onside.

raab · #18 10-30-2017, 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Okotokian

I think he had to take over a PC riding. If it had looked like he pushed out a WildRoser that might have created friction. He wants to get that group onside.

Fildebrandt is an Independent...

Okotokian · #19 10-30-2017, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raab

Fildebrandt is an Independent...

Oh yeah, forgot about that "incident". Well to everyone else but WR he's still a WR.

And the folks that voted him in voted WR, so the issue I mentioned still exists.

Spidey · #20 10-30-2017, 02:47 PM

My prediction is that Rodney will run for the UCP in the new Banff/Stoney riding, given that rumor has it that he and his family live in Canmore now. Not sure if the new riding plans have been totally finalized, but if so this new riding could potentially lean heavier to the left now that Cochrane and most of the population north and east of HWY 22 is in a new riding.

Also, with the (albeit small) increase in popularity of the Alberta Party - and in terms of vote split - who would be hurt more in the next election by the AP, the UCP or the NDP? I thought the AP would take more from the NDP but seeing some of the conservative exodus over to AP, I'm not sure now.

Interesting times....

Okotokian · #21 10-30-2017, 02:59 PM

Times change and so do voting patterns. Alberta may eventually move left. Maybe it's starting now. That said, one thing to remember is this.. All or almost all of the PC and Wildrose voters in the last election were to the right. They are solid and traditional. Anyone that was going to drift already did. The NDP will get almost zero of them in the next election. But very few that voted NDP last time were traditional left voters. There was a big protest vote swing to the NDP. I don't know how much of that vote will drift back, but some of it will. I'm betting too much will for them to retain power.

densa44 · #22 10-30-2017, 06:01 PM

Nothing is certain. The new voters the youth and the immigrants will have to go somewhere, left or right.

We'll see.

In politics like anything else never underestimate your opponent.

Spidey · #23 10-30-2017, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Okotokian

Times change and so do voting patterns. Alberta may eventually move left. Maybe it's starting now. That said, one thing to remember is this.. All or almost all of the PC and Wildrose voters in the last election were to the right. They are solid and traditional. Anyone that was going to drift already did. The NDP will get almost zero of them in the next election. But very few that voted NDP last time were traditional left voters. There was a big protest vote swing to the NDP. I don't know how much of that vote will drift back, but some of it will. I'm betting too much will for them to retain power.

Another variable to consider.... the 14, 15, 16 and 17 year olds from last election will be of voting age in 2019...

covey ridge · #24 10-30-2017, 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spidey

Another variable to consider.... the 14, 15, 16 and 17 year olds from last election will be of voting age in 2019...

It will be interesting to see what those youngsters that do not remember Ralf will do

play.soccer · #25 10-30-2017, 08:52 PM

Alberta party lol don't they have like less than 10 people in that party?

HoytCRX32 · #26 10-31-2017, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by play.soccer

Alberta party lol don't they have like less than 10 people in that party?

As the number of NDP'ers that jump ship (knowing they have no chance of reelection) grows, so will the ranks of the Alberta Party. These people have no concerns for Albertans, just keeping their nose in the trough.

play.soccer · #27 10-31-2017, 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HoytCRX32

As the number of NDP'ers that jump ship (knowing they have no chance of reelection) grows, so will the ranks of the Alberta Party. These people have no concerns for Albertans, just keeping their nose in the trough.

So safe to say the Alberta party will be the new NDP?

kedive · #28 10-31-2017, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raab

All WR supporters should back Kenney. I'm not a fan of him, but he's miles better then Notley.

This is the problem right here all the old PC's think ohh all those Wild Rose supporters are back with our team now. No we are not. The problems I've had with the PC's haven't been resolved same old PC party different name.

ChickakooKookoo · #29 10-31-2017, 01:44 PM

Remember that Nenshi just won the mayoral vote. A lot of people expected him to be voted out due to his left leaning positions. I think Calgary has moved a lot more left in the last few years than most people realise.

raab · #30 10-31-2017, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kedive

This is the problem right here all the old PC's think ohh all those Wild Rose supporters are back with our team now. No we are not. The problems I've had with the PC's haven't been resolved same old PC party different name.

Well the leadership voting is based off the WRP, the policy making is based off the WRP, and the framework of the party is based off the WRP. The UCP is definitely not the old PC's. If anything its the WRP rebranded with the PC'ers joining us.