Financial Markets Meltdown

[thenaturalwoodsman]

Originally Posted by Bigfeet

Anyone have any experience with the TD Ameritrade thinkorswim platform? The paper trading option allows you to learn how the stock market works, do trades, etc. without spending any cash. Looks to be a good learning tool?

Most platforms have this, super good tool to learn!!!

[MyAlberta]

Originally Posted by Bigfeet

Anyone have any experience with the TD Ameritrade thinkorswim platform? The paper trading option allows you to learn how the stock market works, do trades, etc. without spending any cash. Looks to be a good learning tool?

I've used ThinkorSwim for my US trading for many years. Paper trading wont teach you how the stock market works, but it is a good tool to play out scenarios and learn the interface.

[Dean2]

Anyone who thinks it is now a good time to buy google pre-spilt, Facebook, Apple etc, my thoughts are that we are FAR from the bottom. Google is off 1000 in 4 months. Shopify is 1/4 of what it was 6 months ago. Both are still dropping rapidly.

Norwegian cruise lines has added 6 BILLION in debt over the last 2 years. Fuel is up, all other costs are up, staff are hard to find and they have pre sold a ton of cruises the next 2 years at huge discounts. None of this bodes well for these companies.

[bdub]

The US dollar continues to steamroll other currencies. It has gone parabolic in the last month, now at almost 104 on the DXY. Good for Canadian companies selling goods into the US or priced in USD, like oil, nat gas. Not so good in the other direction.

[KGB]

Ok Dean2 - I’m going to hang myself now….
But jokes aside- I tend to agree with you. The tech stocks are under tremendous pressure since the beginning of the year. It’s not just a two or three days sell of, it is a constant downfall. All of them, no exceptions…

[bdub]

I feel sorry for anyone who has been overweight tech/long duration assets since November. It's been a nasty place to be long. Tomorrow isn't looking much better so far either, especially for Amazon. Down 8+ percent so far.

We will probably see more bear market bounces like today followed by further declines until the market sniffs out that the Fed is out of the rate rising game IMO. I'm with Dean in the avoid camp for the time being. Cash flow now, hold extra cash and/or gold and short or avoid long duration stuff until we see the end of tightening in financial conditions. Watch the yield curve and the bond market. It's usually right, and early I think.

US GDP printed at -1.4% today. Not many analysts expected that.

[fishtank]

Trillion dollar company moving 10+% ain’t normal…..

[EdmontonEli]

RIP for the people still holding unto tech. The economic conditions (inflation and interest rate) are not for tech.

Stagflation here we go!

[bdub]

It’s like we are facing a combination of the high debt post ww2 period, and the 1970s stagflation/inflationary period and the 2000 tech bust all at once.

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by bdub

It’s like we are facing a combination of the high debt post ww2 period, and the 1970s stagflation/inflationary period and the 2000 tech bust all at once.

I had never actual though of it in those terms but that truly is a great description of the current environment. Look back at history and learn from it. Also take the time to make the investment decisions consistent with what you have learned from history.

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by fishtank

Trillion dollar company moving 10+% ain’t normal…..

Ain't that the truth but it is amazing how many people don't understand how efed up the current economic situation is.

[Dean2]

So, how many besides me have been buying the dips? Inflation is accelerating, not slowing like all the government wonks say, supply chain problems are worse than they were 18 months ago and show no signs of abating soon, two in five ships world wide are in a lineup to unload, some weeks long, and manufacturing capacity is far from recovered, Oil still marching upwards and Europe is now talking about a total Russian oil boycott, interest rates are on the rise and housing sales are slowing dramatically because people are starting to have trouble qualifying at today's rates, let alone those 6 months down the road.

Not a lot of good economic news, the chance of a recession is north of 65% already. This may sound like a broken record, but I will say it again anyhow: Guy has to make sure he has his money parked in top notch, blue chip, dividend paying companies, real estate that earns rents etc so you can safely ride out the storm.

[fishtank]

Problem is that the Incoming interest rate hike , Which hike is going to break the economy’s back . Looking at some insurance stock that are at 52 week lows. But only adding small blocks , might add more if it comes down more .

Also anyone notice more red days then green days on the overall market in the last few weeks , maybe just the sell in may effect .

[KGB]

Originally Posted by Dean2

So, how many besides me have been buying the dips? Inflation is accelerating, not slowing like all the government wonks say, supply chain problems are worse than they were 18 months ago and show no signs of abating soon, two in five ships world wide are in a lineup to unload, some weeks long, and manufacturing capacity is far from recovered, Oil still marching upwards and Europe is now talking about a total Russian oil boycott, interest rates are on the rise and housing sales are slowing dramatically because people are starting to have trouble qualifying at today's rates, let alone those 6 months down the road.

Not a lot of good economic news, the chance of a recession is north of 65% already. This may sound like a broken record, but I will say it again anyhow: Guy has to make sure he has his money parked in top notch, blue chip, dividend paying companies, real estate that earns rents etc so you can safely ride out the storm.

I haven’t bought anything yet… Me think we are going down more. How much more- I don’t know but I have a bad feelings about the markets now… Gut feeling…

[thenaturalwoodsman]

Me thinks more should have bought anything Oil & Gas over the course of the last 2 years, big money has been made and more big money will continue to be made. It actually surprises me how many continue to ignore this ride.....

Originally Posted by KGB

I haven’t bought anything yet… Me think we are going down more. How much more- I don’t know but I have a bad feelings about the markets now… Gut feeling…

[Snap Shot]

Originally Posted by thenaturalwoodsman

Me thinks more should have bought anything Oil & Gas over the course of the last 2 years, big money has been made and more big money will continue to be made. It actually surprises me how many continue to ignore this ride.....

I loaded up 10-11 months ago. Meg & vermilion have treated me well the last little while

[Buckhead]

Originally Posted by fishtank

Trillion dollar company moving 10+% ain’t normal…..

Just some overvalued companies reverting back to the trend line.

What isn't normal is people actually believing that some companies are worth Trillions of dollars.

[thenaturalwoodsman]

Good to hear!! MEG has been rolling!!

Originally Posted by Snap Shot

I loaded up 10-11 months ago. Meg & vermilion have treated me well the last little while

[bdub]

From Tourmoline with luv.

“Given the record FCF outlook in 2022, the Company is pleased to announce quarterly special dividends for the remaining three quarters of 2022. The Q2 2022 special dividend of $1.50 per common share will be paid May 19, 2022 to shareholders of record on May 12, 2022. The magnitude of the special dividends in the third and fourth quarters will be..”

[Snap Shot]

Originally Posted by thenaturalwoodsman

Good to hear!! MEG has been rolling!!

Yea serious, quiet awhile ago I took a gamble on Baytex. Picked up a far size chunk at less then two bits… damn near 7 bucks! I invested pretty heavily last year directly in O&G in 7 different companies. Only thing I’m wishing was I invested more. The free cash flow coming is scary!

[MyAlberta]

Originally Posted by Dean2

So, how many besides me have been buying the dips? Inflation is accelerating, not slowing like all the government wonks say, supply chain problems are worse than they were 18 months ago and show no signs of abating soon, two in five ships world wide are in a lineup to unload, some weeks long, and manufacturing capacity is far from recovered, Oil still marching upwards and Europe is now talking about a total Russian oil boycott, interest rates are on the rise and housing sales are slowing dramatically because people are starting to have trouble qualifying at today's rates, let alone those 6 months down the road.

Not a lot of good economic news, the chance of a recession is north of 65% already. This may sound like a broken record, but I will say it again anyhow: Guy has to make sure he has his money parked in top notch, blue chip, dividend paying companies, real estate that earns rents etc so you can safely ride out the storm.

I’m active with a chunk of change playing spreads. Been in sync last month with a couple of paydays, but that only lasts until it doesn’t.

Glad to see realestate has fallen back into your consideration as you had seemed to disqualify it not long ago.

[Map Maker]

With so much uncertainty, I find myself buying more ETFs.
Most pay 4% in dividends. Not sure what that MER charge is yet.

Their charts look the best right now for stability.

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by Map Maker

With so much uncertainty, I find myself buying more ETFs.
Most pay 4% in dividends. Not sure what that MER charge is yet.

Their charts look the best right now for stability.

Yeah there are a few cdn ones that pays 7-10%, nice place to park your cash until a good deal shows up .

[pikeman06]

Might be some good buys Monday morning if you are brave. I personally see the TSX falling till it settles at around 18000. The recent profit reports from several big companies did little to bolster the market. Definitely a rough day so far and might trigger a bigger sell-off tomorrow.

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by pikeman06

Might be some good buys Monday morning if you are brave. I personally see the TSX falling till it settles at around 18000. The recent profit reports from several big companies did little to bolster the market. Definitely a rough day so far and might trigger a bigger sell-off tomorrow.

shop tank about 16% today so that would be a haircut to the most vauluble Canadian tech company ( like the good old Rimm growth then ….), I think we can see more adjustments coming . The raise interest rates and inflation, even dollar stores are feeling it and have to raise prices . Sp500 is down about 4% and the day is not over yet .

[Map Maker]

Yep. Usually a big drop like that, you see people buying back in at the end of the day but it’s still dropping.
Oh well. Sit back and collect the dividends.

Fish tank, I wish I had 7-10% dividend stock but sounds pretty risky for a stock to be paying that much.
3-4% is more comfortable to me.

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by Map Maker

Yep. Usually a big drop like that, you see people buying back in at the end of the day but it’s still dropping.
Oh well. Sit back and collect the dividends.

Fish tank, I wish I had 7-10% dividend stock but sounds pretty risky for a stock to be paying that much.
3-4% is more comfortable to me.

It’s a etf Check out EIT.TO . It’s just a place to park the cash if you are not deploying it on a stock so Don’t expect growth, but they do keep their dividend rate steady .

[Buckhead]

Originally Posted by pikeman06

Might be some good buys Monday morning if you are brave. I personally see the TSX falling till it settles at around 18000. The recent profit reports from several big companies did little to bolster the market. Definitely a rough day so far and might trigger a bigger sell-off tomorrow.

If the market drops anywhere close to 18000 I will be a buyer. Equities on sale.
To me it looks like the bottom for now is around 19500 but I have been wrong before.

[pikeman06]

Originally Posted by Buckhead

If the market drops anywhere close to 18000 I will be a buyer. Equities on sale.
To me it looks like the bottom for now is around 19500 but I have been wrong before.

Haven't we all. I just don't see any real positive news to stop the drop. People get nervous on a 2 percent drop for no real obvious reason unless I missed something. Transportation and fuel and energy costs is really putting a damper on any uptick in the market and tech seems dead for the time being.anyones guess but 18000 is my magic number.

[bdub]

Originally Posted by Dean2

I had never actual though of it in those terms but that truly is a great description of the current environment. Look back at history and learn from it. Also take the time to make the investment decisions consistent with what you have learned from history.

Yes indeed. Being super heavy in the components of higher inflation is working really well. On the flipside, being completely out of or very light in the stuff that doesn’t do well in an inflationary, rising rate environment has been extremely fortunate.