Dollar exchange- time to cash in or wait?

[sharpstick]

I'm going to the US in a couple weeks. Should I buy US $ today or wait till I go? think it will change much in the next couple weeks?

[ChickakooKookoo]

Trump's starting a trade ware with China today. Not sure anyone is going to be able to predict the collateral damage to Canada. My guess, oil goes up a bit so our petro dollar goes up a bit with it until the realities of a global trade war setin then we're going to tank hard.

[sharpstick]

maybe Ill wait a day or 2 to see what happens...

[mcreg]

Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette

US Dollar
1 USD = 1.29080 CAD
↔Canadian Dollar
1 CAD = 0.774716 USD

DUE to all the "Trade Wars" Trump seems to be insistant on, not only are the Stock Markets extremely volitile so are the currency markets. Latest update still has May as being the bottom for the Cdn dollar vs. US dollar but ranging between 1.28 - 1.33? BETTER scenario than before!
Again, these are not my forecast but from a few analysts we follow.
I'm not that smart!

[raab]

Originally Posted by sharpstick

I'm going to the US in a couple weeks. Should I buy US $ today or wait till I go? think it will change much in the next couple weeks?

Id buy now, but if you want to reduce your risk you can buy half now, and half when you go.

[raab]

Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette

I have never been on the right end of the exchange swing when I actually have money, when it was par I was still paying off my mortgage. Being patient with exchange is likely the very easiest investment there has ever been, and honestly it is the only investing I have ever done. I won't make a lot but will be ready.

Why not invest in a US company that pays dividends? So then your making money off the exchange + whatever the company pays in dividends + capital gains. Just make sure you buy a good company at a good price.

[EZM]

Originally Posted by javlin101

Nope we import from Asian market mostly and pay the mills in USD and charge our customers in USD. This way most of our money stays in a USD account.

How's this great news for you if you are acquiring in USD and getting paid in USD? Where is the gain or loss?

USD buying then USD selling basically mitigates any FX (foreign exchange) variances (lossess/gains) notwithstanding the cost of cash considering the payment terms to mills in Asia which are usually EXWORKS or FAS.

You pay them before the product leaves the country (by law) OR if you are getting "terms" like net 30/60 or whatever, the mill is using a guarantor/broker (or acts on it'sown behalf in this capacity under licence) to satisfy the export laws coming out of China - and guess what, they charge you for that.

This is neither good nor bad news for you, it's irrelevant since you said you are keeping your cash in a US account.

You only gain/loose after you have executed a FX transaction at that point you can measure your FX variance based on the valuation at the date of buying from the supplier versus the date of getting paid from your customer (as outlined above).

[javlin101]

Originally Posted by EZM

How's this great news for you if you are acquiring in USD and getting paid in USD? Where is the gain or loss?

USD buying then USD selling basically mitigates any FX (foreign exchange) variances (lossess/gains) notwithstanding the cost of cash considering the payment terms to mills in Asia which are usually EXWORKS or FAS.

You pay them before the product leaves the country (by law) OR if you are getting "terms" like net 30/60 or whatever, the mill is using a guarantor/broker (or acts on it'sown behalf in this capacity under licence) to satisfy the export laws coming out of China - and guess what, they charge you for that.

This is neither good nor bad news for you, it's irrelevant since you said you are keeping your cash in a US account.

You only gain/loose after you have executed a FX transaction at that point you can measure your FX variance based on the valuation at the date of buying from the supplier versus the date of getting paid from your customer (as outlined above).

Aah yes you are partially right there sir, however when we pay ourselves or pay dividends to ourselves it is converted to Canadian so we gain every time in that case, unless the CND dollar gains big time, which I doubt. Yes normal terms are 20-50% down, finally at time of BOL. Also yes we will pay on the gain on exchange, no different than GST.

When we start stocking product in Canada this year things will change some!
You see we are paid by our customer in USD which is the norm for international business and pay mills in USD. This way we are not converting any funds from CND to USD.

I have been doing this for a long time and when I worked for a large distribution company we would hedge major project jobs by buying US funds the same day we accepted the order. That way we would not lose if exchange rate went crazy. This was due to margins being quit low in some cases(single digits).

[Ken07AOVette]

1USD =
1.33934
CAD
1 CAD = 0.746638 USD
1 USD = 1.33934 CAD

on the way down again, time to cash out soon

[Jayhad]

Originally Posted by Albertacoyotecaller

His dad loved it when we were lower than this and I suspect JR. Will be taking us on the same train ride as it’s the only play book he has read.

I don't recall Fidel messing with our currency, hahaha

[mustard73]

Which sites do you guys find are reasonably good for forecasting the exchange rate?

[bdub]

Originally Posted by mustard73

Which sites do you guys find are reasonably good for forecasting the exchange rate?

Forecasting exchange rates has got to be extremely, extremely difficult. How do you forecast the combined effects of what is going on with interest rates, economic conditions, inflation in different countries and on top of all that throw in country specific political risk, geopolitical events and so on and so on. There are just so many factors to consider. I doubt many "or any" are very good at it over long periods of time and if they exist, I am sure there advice is not cheap. I would be curious as well if anyone can point one out with a good track record.

[FQ2]

Originally Posted by raab

Why not invest in a US company that pays dividends? So then your making money off the exchange + whatever the company pays in dividends + capital gains. Just make sure you buy a good company at a good price.

This







I will be buying my second plane soon along with a nice airstrip too go along with it. Good stuff.

[Ken07AOVette]

1USD =
1.36352
CAD
1 CAD = 0.733395 USD
1 USD = 1.36352 CAD

It is REALLY hard not cashing out my USD$ right now, but I want to see if it continues down. I have a decent amount of it in the bank, every penny it falls means $$$ more CAD!

A guy could really make money if he followed this closely enough I think, and is patient. I am glad I did not cash in a while ago.

[yukon254]

Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette

1USD =
1.36352
CAD
1 CAD = 0.733395 USD
1 USD = 1.36352 CAD

It is REALLY hard not cashing out my USD$ right now, but I want to see if it continues down. I have a decent amount of it in the bank, every penny it falls means $$$ more CAD!

A guy could really make money if he followed this closely enough I think, and is patient. I am gladd I did not cash in a while ago.

I think you are safe to holdout a bit longer, although this is the best exchange rates I've seen in years. Like most outfitters we charge US dollars so it is something we follow fairly closely. Being able to make 30% right off the top is nice for a change.

Hate getting into politics but in this case Trump has everything to do with the strong US dollar, and JT has a lot to do with the low CND dollar. As soon as Trump was elected it was like someone threw a light switch. Our inquiries and bookings skyrocketed, as did every other outfitter I know. This is after 8 very long tough years, so it was noticeable. The biggest thing Trump has done for the US economy is getting rid of restrictive regulations and cutting the corporate and individual tax rates. The US economy is booming right now because of those changes. Jobless rates down there are the lowest in my lifetime. That means people have more money to spend and are more likely to book a trip or take a vacation. Say what you will but Trump was elected to help the USA, not Canada or any other country. Hes doing a good job of it too, so I think we might see the US dollar get stronger, especially now that the Chinese economy seems to be slowing.

[Ken07AOVette]

I am wondering if The Donald gave Marching Pony until Jan 1 2019 for something or another, will see if our dollar keeps dropping I guess.

Few cents here and there make a huge difference.

If a guy had a few spare million laying around, just playing the yankee/Canuck buck game makes serious money.

[Ken07AOVette]

Our Dollar has dropped a couple cents over the last few days, may be time to finally cash in.

Dec 26 would have been the best day by a long shot, $1.375 with lots to exchange was a healthy rate. (USD to CAD anyway)

[B-radshaw]

Im mad I missed the Dec 26th low as well. Darn christmas holidays and cougar hunting. Im watching closely and will likely trade over on this low.