Covid 19: Medical / Technical Thread

[fishnguy]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

I notice most of the 'common flu' commentators have become increasingly quiet....
It's only a handful of us keeping this discussion alive now. Maybe they fell ill, just haven't been reported...

They weren’t exactly too active previously either. One got banned, if I recall correctly.

Personally, I kind of got bored with the subject and don’t really post much in this thread anymore, though still read some of it.

The latest statements suggest that the incubation period is up to 27 days, by the way. They (the Chinese) also traced with some degree of certainty via numerous DNA samples testing that the virus originated elsewhere in China before being brought to Wuhan market, where the conditions were perfectly ripe for the **** to hit the fan.

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

They weren’t exactly too active previously either. One got banned, if I recall correctly.

Personally, I kind of got bored with the subject and don’t really post much in this thread anymore, though still read some of it.

The latest statements suggest that the incubation period is up to 27 days, by the way. They (the Chinese) also traced with some degree of certainty via numerous DNA samples testing that the virus originated elsewhere in China before being brought to Wuhan market, where the conditions were perfectly ripe for the **** to hit the fan.

Well thanks for staying tuned. I appreciate other opinions that may not align with my own, respectfully.

Elsewhere, like the BSL-4 lab in Wuhan?....

I just read something that could totally change the perspective of this whole thing. I trust reports from Italy much more than China.

"From the tests carried out, it emerged that the alleged *zero patient*did not develop antibodies. So he*never had Coronavirus. The whole picture changes now" said Deputy Minister of Health, Pierpaolo Sileri.""

As of the end of Feb.22, there were a total of:
-*54 cases in Lombardy*region (including 1 death, with 18 in critical condition).
-*18 in Veneto*region (including 1 death).
-** 3 in Emilia Romagna region*(all of which hospitalized from the Lumbardy hotspot).
-** 3 in Rome*(including 2 recoveries).*
-** 1 in Turin, Piedmont.


That is a scary scary development, and would explain the outlier 28 day incubation period occassionally seen. Indicates we (or possibly at least some) do not develop immunity after infection! 28 days is a double exposure and second infection from the same virus. If true, that changes the rules of the game completely. (Ro) becomes (R).... super scary development if true. Need me some more tinfoil!

[2 Tollers]

I understand the infection spread right now is thought to be proximity of an infected person to others. That can be source for Italy and Korea.

What happened in Iran? There is nothing mentioned on travel for any of the people that have been infected there.

Also worth checking this issue of MedCram --- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGhwAGiAnJo ---- interesting on the exposure of people to bats and the testing that has been on-going for sometime.

[buckbrush]

Originally Posted by 2 Tollers

What happened in Iran? There is nothing mentioned on travel for any of the people that have been infected there.

I've noticed that too. I think it's been spreading there for a while and has lots of cases but the only ones that have been found are not the first round of infections.

[bloopbloob]

2 new deaths and 14 new cases in Iran.*38 new cases in Italy: 36 in Lombary (including a 17-year-old male in Valtellina) and 2 in Turin: a*couple who visited their child at the Regina Margherita Hospital*in Turin yesterday morning.

- Armed forces*and police forces have been mobilized to form an*insurmountable "health belt"*around contagion areas. Roadblock*violators risk up to a 3 months prison sentence.

- "Serious mistake was made not to quarantine people who arrived in Italy from China" said Walter Ricciardi of the WHO, adding that "within two weeks we will know if we are facing an epidemic" and advising that, for the*next two weeks, people "should avoid crowded places: metro, buses, trains, schools, discos, and gyms."

- "Schools shall be closed in Milan for a week*" said Milan's mayor Giuseppe Sala.*


I consider Italy a litmus test. Not looking good with 117 now in a very short window. Iran is much worse than reported....

[buckbrush]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

advising that, for the*next two weeks, people "should avoid crowded discos "

I was worried it would come to this.

[kingrat]

I cant believe countries are being this stupid and negligent including us. This could very well end up being catastrophic when it didn't and doesn't have to be.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by kingrat

I cant believe countries are being this stupid and negligent including us. This could very well end up being catastrophic when it didn't and doesn't have to be.

Yes. There will always be a percentage of the population that refuse to understand risks until it effects them or their children. In fact, I bet this forum is a good representation of the percentages world wide.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by 2 Tollers

I understand the infection spread right now is thought to be proximity of an infected person to others. That can be source for Italy and Korea.

What happened in Iran? There is nothing mentioned on travel for any of the people that have been infected there.

Also worth checking this issue of MedCram --- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGhwAGiAnJo ---- interesting on the exposure of people to bats and the testing that has been on-going for sometime.

China has over a BILLLION people and a HUGE population in businesses world wide. I find it hard to believe that infected Chinese haven't gone to every corner of the globe. I'm sure they have, but the virus hasn't been identified yet. It presents as just a cold in most cases, and how many people go to the hospital for a cold ?????

[Sundancefisher]

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION
DEATH RATE
Cardiovascular disease 10.5%
Diabetes 7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease 6.3%
Hypertension 6.0%
Cancer 5.6%
no pre-existing conditions 0.9%


COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:

AGE
DEATH RATE
80+ years old 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities

What is the fatality risk for a 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 year old with no prior medical pre-existing conditions?

Regardless. Any deaths is bad and I have relatives and friends of all ages so I want to keep this out of Canada

Who has canceled vacations out of country for 2020? Italy appears to be a growing problem now. Hard to contain in Europe.

[bdub]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:

One comment and question.
This is based off Chinese data.
Do you think the rest of the world should believe anything China says based on their record so far?

[reddeerguy2015]

Originally Posted by buckbrush

i was worried it would come to this.

🤣

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION
DEATH RATE
Cardiovascular disease 10.5%
Diabetes 7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease 6.3%
Hypertension 6.0%
Cancer 5.6%
no pre-existing conditions 0.9%


COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:

AGE
DEATH RATE
80+ years old 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities

What is the fatality risk for a 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 year old with no prior medical pre-existing conditions?

Regardless. Any deaths is bad and I have relatives and friends of all ages so I want to keep this out of Canada

Who has canceled vacations out of country for 2020? Italy appears to be a growing problem now. Hard to contain in Europe.

Unfortunately Canada won't be able to build hospitals in 2 weeks like China did. Every single bed in our hospital system could be taken up by Corvid19 patients. Those that die won't be the problem, it will be those patients that take up a bed for 12 weeks getting well enough to leave hospital that will really cause the biggest problems.

[Zip]

Originally Posted by Scott h

Unfortunately Canada won't be able to build hospitals in 2 weeks like China did. Every single bed in our hospital system could be taken up by Corvid19 patients. Those that die won't be the problem, it will be those patients that take up a bed for 12 weeks getting well enough to leave hospital that will really cause the biggest problems.

Yes it is a big problem as our health Care system is bursting at the seams now.. we just got back home from the U of A where I just spent 1 week while they did text after test on me as my lungs are filling with some sorta junk stuff, I was put in isolation for most of that week until I was no threat to anybody else!
But, we sat in emergency for 5 hours all the while watching people leave.. as some where there up to 12 hours..one lady told us she didn’t have anyplace else to be so she was waiting it out right there.. we got in earlier as I was anemic my hemoglobin was at 79.. it had dropped from 86 the week before. Coughing up blood over time will do that!
I hope we don’t see even a mild outbreak of this virus.. our health care aids and doctors and food servers and janitors and porters all hit the ground running from start of shift until end of shift..
Sorry for the long post, I mainly just wanted to point out that most of our hospitals need more people to help now.. what is going to happen once this virus gets to our world.. hospitals last place to be these days!
Oh.. and on a good note, every single person who helped look after me while I was in hospital.. are top notch, very friendly, know what they are doing, and I was happy to have them all on my side.. good job everyone at the U of A...I thank you!
Zip

[Ken07AOVette]

Originally Posted by Zip

Yes it is a big problem as our health Care system is bursting at the seams now.. we just got back home from the U of A where I just spent 1 week while they did text after test on me as my lungs are filling with some sorta junk stuff, I was put in isolation for most of that week until I was no threat to anybody else!
But, we sat in emergency for 5 hours all the while watching people leave.. as some where there up to 12 hours..one lady told us she didn’t have anyplace else to be so she was waiting it out right there.. we got in earlier as I was anemic my hemoglobin was at 79.. it had dropped from 86 the week before. Coughing up blood over time will do that!
I hope we don’t see even a mild outbreak of this virus.. our health care aids and doctors and food servers and janitors and porters all hit the ground running from start of shift until end of shift..
Sorry for the long post, I mainly just wanted to point out that most of our hospitals need more people to help now.. what is going to happen once this virus gets to our world.. hospitals last place to be these days!
Oh.. and on a good note, every single person who helped look after me while I was in hospital.. are top notch, very friendly, know what they are doing, and I was happy to have them all on my side.. good job everyone at the U of A...I thank you!
Zip

Keep typing my friend. I am happy to see you are still on your feet, everytime.

[Zip]

Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette

Keep typing my friend. I am happy to see you are still on your feet, everytime.

Thanks Ken, It was close this time in terms of me still being on my feet.. to close!
I appreciate you..
Zip

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by Zip

Yes it is a big problem as our health Care system is bursting at the seams now.. we just got back home from the U of A where I just spent 1 week while they did text after test on me as my lungs are filling with some sorta junk stuff, I was put in isolation for most of that week until I was no threat to anybody else!
But, we sat in emergency for 5 hours all the while watching people leave.. as some where there up to 12 hours..one lady told us she didn’t have anyplace else to be so she was waiting it out right there.. we got in earlier as I was anemic my hemoglobin was at 79.. it had dropped from 86 the week before. Coughing up blood over time will do that!
I hope we don’t see even a mild outbreak of this virus.. our health care aids and doctors and food servers and janitors and porters all hit the ground running from start of shift until end of shift..
Sorry for the long post, I mainly just wanted to point out that most of our hospitals need more people to help now.. what is going to happen once this virus gets to our world.. hospitals last place to be these days!
Oh.. and on a good note, every single person who helped look after me while I was in hospital.. are top notch, very friendly, know what they are doing, and I was happy to have them all on my side.. good job everyone at the U of A...I thank you!
Zip

alberta just change their healthcare for out of country... so snowbirds beware


https://edmontonjournal.com/news/pol...ertans-april-1

[glen moa]

Originally Posted by kingrat

I cant believe countries are being this stupid and negligent including us. This could very well end up being catastrophic when it didn't and doesn't have to be.

I can absolutely believe how stupid they are. Like always protect yourself first

[fishtank]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...uver-1.5473283

[TimeOff]

A good video showing what may be real numbers appearing as opposed to the ones coming out of China. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuBB...ature=youtu.be

[bdub]

Cases numbers in Italy (215) and South Korea (833) are taking off. The market is really taking notice now. Stocks are getting crushed today overseas and NA market futures are in full on panic mode. Golds up another 30$ and oils taking another crap kicking. I half expect Trump to make some sort of announcement over the next couple days as this sinks in.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51612520

[Justfishin73]

Originally Posted by bdub

Cases numbers in Italy (215) and South Korea (833) are taking off. The market is really taking notice now. Stocks are getting crushed today overseas and NA market futures are in full on panic mode. Golds up another 30$ and oils taking another crap kicking. I half expect Trump to make some sort of announcement over the next couple days as this sinks in.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51612520

Why, whoever could have seen his coming? Out of the DOW at 29,500 --I would be down close to $30k this am---glad I listened to my spidey sense

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by bdub

Cases numbers in Italy (215) and South Korea (833) are taking off. The market is really taking notice now. Stocks are getting crushed today overseas and NA market futures are in full on panic mode. Golds up another 30$ and oils taking another crap kicking. I half expect Trump to make some sort of announcement over the next couple days as this sinks in.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51612520

Italy is 229 now, but this is just the common flu. Nothing to see here...
Middle East is doing fine as well....

[bdub]

Originally Posted by Justfishin73

Why, whoever could have seen his coming? Out of the DOW at 29,500 --I would be down close to $30k this am---glad I listened to my spidey sense

Good call JF, and a brave one too I have to say. We lightened up some more last Friday but are going to take a lickin on what we have left for stocks. We're sitting this morning at about 23% cash, 20% gold and gold exposure and the rest is equities. Gold is going to take quite a bit of the sting off thankfully. I'm in shopping mode now if this gets to a 10% plus correction over the next few days.

Interesting times.

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by bdub

Good call JF, and a brave one too I have to say. We lightened up some more last Friday but are going to take a lickin on what we have left for stocks. We're sitting this morning at about 23% cash, 20% gold and gold exposure and the rest is equities. Gold is going to take quite a bit of the sting off thankfully. I'm in shopping mode now if this gets to a 10% plus correction over the next few days.

Interesting times.

Hold on don’t jump in yet ... the effect of the China shutdown has not been reflected on us company financials yet it will put a dent in both production and profit not to mentioning chinas own situation they put people back to work because it hurting their own Economy( no work = no pay =no business = no payments to banks , in China business runs on credit and now they have a credit problem with the banks ), so With out Control of the corona situation yet . It’s going to be a multi domino effect..

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by fishtank

Hold on don’t jump in yet ... the effect of the China shutdown has not been reflected on us company financials yet it will put a dent in both production and profit not to mentioning chinas own situation they put people back to work because it hurting their own Economy( no work = no pay =no business = no payments to banks , in China business runs on credit and now they have a credit problem with the banks ), so With out Control of the corona situation yet . It’s going to be a multi domino effect..

The social/economic impact of this will be greater than the health side of consequences. Hundreds of millions, possibly billions of people holed up in their homes under quarantine/isolation for weeks or more..... Supply chains disrupted, even those not in areas with outbreak will be stuck with no products to produce and shutting down. When you look at the big picture, it's pretty crazy where this could be heading. People not being able to work to pay their bills, falling into debt and collections etc etc....

[Justfishin73]

Originally Posted by bdub

Good call JF, and a brave one too I have to say. We lightened up some more last Friday but are going to take a lickin on what we have left for stocks. We're sitting this morning at about 23% cash, 20% gold and gold exposure and the rest is equities. Gold is going to take quite a bit of the sting off thankfully. I'm in shopping mode now if this gets to a 10% plus correction over the next few days.

Interesting times.

I am actually in the process of unloading a good chunk of gold and rhodium. Some very nice profits--especially the rhodium--been in since $2100/oz. I think the DOW could easily drop another 20% before this is all over. Till I see a market changing event or a nice bounce, Ill be sitting on my hands. The only thing worth buying right now is food, water and ammo. Never hurts to stock up the home medical supplies either. JMO

[bloopbloob]

One week, and today isn't over yet....

[KinAlberta]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

The social/economic impact of this will be greater than the health side of consequences. Hundreds of millions, possibly billions of people holed up in their homes under quarantine/isolation for weeks or more..... Supply chains disrupted, even those not in areas with outbreak will be stuck with no products to produce and shutting down. When you look at the big picture, it's pretty crazy where this could be heading. People not being able to work to pay their bills, falling into debt and collections etc etc....

Yes, loads of innocent bystanders get hurt badly. Many risk takers, often ignorant risk takers, get wiped out.

Those leveraged investors will be learning, again, that debt is a double-edged sword. (Liquidity crises create downward spirals. Warren Buffett once noted how recessions reveal surprising correlations where none were thought to exist. (However Buffett said it better.)*

Those seeking opportunity know that at times Cash is King and they know that recessions create pent up demand.

Those watching the fiscal conditions of countries employing “fiscal stimulus” (aka debt spending) will realize that gains are privatized and losses are socialized.



* found it - this was about derivatives but general credit issuances face similar concentration risks

“Warren Buffet on Derivatives
Following are edited excerpts from the Berkshire Hathaway annual report for 2002.”

“Many people argue that derivatives reduce systemic problems, in that participants who can’t bear certain risks are able to transfer them to stronger hands. These people believe that derivatives act to stabilize the economy, facilitate trade, and eliminate bumps for individual participants.

On a micro level, what they say is often true. I believe, however, that the macro picture is dangerous and getting more so. Large amounts of risk, particularly credit risk, have become concentrated in the hands of relatively few derivatives dealers, who in addition trade extensively with one other. The troubles of one could quickly infect the others.

On top of that, these dealers are owed huge amounts by non-dealer counter-parties. Some of these counter-parties, are linked in ways that could cause them to run into a problem because of a single event, such as the implosion of the telecom industry. Linkage, when it suddenly surfaces, can trigger serious systemic problems.
Indeed, in 1998, ...”

http://www.fintools.com/docs/Warren%...erivatives.pdf

bolding mine

[fishnguy]

So far, 195 people in China went for a second round (got sick again after recovering the first time).

The WHO is saying that according to their research, about 5% of those who had contact with an infected individual later test positive for the virus themselves.