Financial Markets Meltdown

[Trochu]

Well, Rivn is up 48.6% in the first "hour". How high will it go....

[fishtank]

dont chased, it will come back down.

[Dean2]

This is U.S. date, Cnada is even worse. Transitory my ass. The lying, bobbing heads just keep digging the hole deeper. Kill of Canada's main economic engines, pump out money and drive even well off Canadians into the poor house, imagine what this is doing to the poor, or those on fixed incomes, who were just making it before all this stupidity that uses Covid as the excuse.

If we have a cold winter in Europe we could see Nat gas at ten bucks, and I would not be surprised to see oil hit 100 over the winter. That will drive even more inflation, as will increasing carbon taxes and world wide shortages of electricity etc for heating.

1) The Inflationary Spiral
At 6.2%, the US inflation rate is now at its highest level in over 30 years…



Powered by YCharts
Here’s a breakdown of price increases in the latest CPI report:
• Gasoline: +49.6%
• Gas Utilities: +28.1%
• Used Cars: +26.4%
• Meats/Fish/Poultry/Eggs: +11.9%
• New Cars: +9.8%
• Electricity: +6.5%
• Overall CPI: +6.2%
• Food at home: +5.4%
• Food away from home: +5.3%
• Transportation: +4.5%
• Apparel: +4.3%
• Shelter: +3.5%

2) Deeper in Debt
Undeterred by rising inflation, the Federal Government continues to spend money like a drunken sailor.
Where is the money coming from?
They’re borrowing it.
The US National Debt has once again hit the “debt ceiling limit” ($28.9 trillion) and the deficit for the latest fiscal year of $2.772 trillion was the second largest in the nation’s history, trailing only 2020.

[nelsonob1]

This^^^

[fishtank]

The $ printing continues, they can't afford to stop QE .

[bdub]

If you want to be really shocked check out fertilizer prices. Food inflation is just starting. Food shortages in parts of the world are coming. Lots of other things to think about. ESG and the greens are causing an energy crisis. Powell is going to get the boot from Bidden and we are getting Brainard most likely. A MMT type of FED chair. The US are pulling from the strategic petroleum reserves during a seasonally weak period?? Trying to lower oil prices. OPEC spare capacity is a big ? mark. Russia is holding Europe hostage over nat gas as well pushing towards a conflict in the Ukraine. China warning over Taiwan and Xi is now president for life. And covid continues indefinitely.

So what to do? Rates are going up and long duration assets are going down and the rotation out is just starting to get going. These sectors and markets are expensive and are going to get a severe beating when we see rates really move imo.

[Jim Blake]

Our Fall fertilizer cost with application went up 50%. The company said it will be even higher in the Spring. Higher natural gas prices and some plant shutdowns were the excuse but I think they just want to get a chunk of the high grain prices.

As stated above buckle up for some major hikes in food prices!!

[bdub]

Biden is trying to orchestrate a coordinated release of oil reserves on the market. Lets see how this goes over with OPEC et al. A desperate attempt to lower prices that is going to backfire imo and a clear signal that the US/Biden Admin is loosing control of the inflation narrative. We have a structural problem with supply that is not transitory.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...serve-release/

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/20...serves-sources

[doublehaul]

I follow this thread closely, so I thought I would ask for suggestions

I am trying to compare stock brokers, and I’d like your input

My intention is to transfer from mutual funds and self manage my investments.

I will be buying and holding mostly divided stocks and etf and want them to drip. Mostly they are on nyse. I probably will buy around 10-20 stocks through the year.
I’m comparing all Canadian institutions that have an application for iPhone, mostly just to be able to review my portfolio.

I am comparing but not limited to
TD , CIBC , RBC all have 7-9$ fee

Qtrade , Questrade , Interactive Brokers are almost free

Since I’m not doing very many transactions I don’t think I’m too concerned about the 7-8$ transactions fee
What institution has a good stock value / rating platform
Any input is welcome

[fishnguy]

Originally Posted by doublehaul

Interactive Brokers are almost free

Almost free only if you actively trade. Otherwise, you will pay some monthly fee ($20 US, if I recall correctly; I think there is another $20 if your balance is below… $2K, I think; I haven’t paid them in a long while, so you better read up on those fees to know for sure). Commission for every trade you make goes toward that monthly fee, so at the end of the month you pay the difference, if any. It makes sense if you makes 3+ trades per month (given your balance is above that $2K or whatever that amount is).

IB also gives you an ability to trade options, bonds, forex, international exchanges, etc, if that is your thing. You also convert currency by buying it straight on the market (there is commissions, of course, like on all other trades), avoiding bank rates and whatnot.

There is also WealthSimple (I think that is what is called), which very simplistic, but the cheapest of all.

[Dean2]

I use RBC. TD also has an excellent platform and it is my secondary. Had Q-Trade, got rid of it, have not tried the others on your list. The fee of 9 bucks per trade is reasonable, goes into your cost and recovery totals. It is vthe only fees I pay on either.

[tranq78]

Inflation rate in Canada 4.7% for October 2021, year-over-year.

MSM is blaming supply chain problems for this. Not a single word about the real reason, printing money out of thin air by our Glorious Dear Leader in the federal government.

CBC comments section has people blaming climate change, BC washouts, logistics, and - wait for it! - Stephen Harper. No one has blamed the other other other real reason, Saturn rising over Venus being bad, but I'm sure that's coming too.

[tranq78]

Originally Posted by doublehaul

I follow this thread closely, so I thought I would ask for suggestions

I am trying to compare stock brokers, and I’d like your input

My intention is to transfer from mutual funds and self manage my investments.

I will be buying and holding mostly divided stocks and etf and want them to drip. Mostly they are on nyse. I probably will buy around 10-20 stocks through the year.
I’m comparing all Canadian institutions that have an application for iPhone, mostly just to be able to review my portfolio.

I am comparing but not limited to
TD , CIBC , RBC all have 7-9$ fee

Qtrade , Questrade , Interactive Brokers are almost free

Since I’m not doing very many transactions I don’t think I’m too concerned about the 7-8$ transactions fee
What institution has a good stock value / rating platform
Any input is welcome

Answering to the bolded section above. You need to ask each broker one very specific question. "Do you have a drip program and do you offer synthetic drips?"

Some stocks have a drip program you can enroll in. Many don't but the broker may provide their own program where they will do it for you anyway at no extra cost -- it's called a synthetic drip.

You will find a broker with a syn-drip to be way better for your wallet than going with the one with lowest commissions.

Suggest you give the broker a list of names you are interested in and having them tell you if a drip/syn-drip is available, so you will know for sure.

Finally, make sure you absolutely know what you are doing. I may play a lawyer on TV but I don't do my own legal stuff. Sometimes paying for a decent adviser will be better for you in the long run. Suggest you talk to friends/family and interview the advisers they use.

[fishtank]

i use TD the fee are like $9. iam used to their platform and i can call and talk to real person with any questions .

[Jim Blake]

I also use T.D.. Happy with them so far.

[fishtank]

not pushing bitcoins, but its a good documentary .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTnMQXgZRJw&t=60s

[Dean2]

So for those of you that wonder why I don't recommend the current high flying stocks, have a look at this list of some of last years high flyers.

[roper1]

^^^^ Thanks Dean! Just so boring & easy to buy quality companies with very good returns. Maybe a couple % of your overall to chase flyers,

[fishtank]

Dow future is down 450 on fears of new variant in South Africa .... if it’s confirmed it’s going to be a red Christmas.

[bdub]

Originally Posted by fishtank

Dow future is down 450 on fears of new variant in South Africa .... if it’s confirmed it’s going to be a red Christmas.

I wonder if it’s gonna be a big nothing burger. Europe is already looking at lockdowns. If the fatality rate goes from the current next to nothing to something more significant, that might change my mind. I think covid is almost in the rear view mirror otherwise. An opportunity maybe if we get a good freakout.

[fishnguy]

Originally Posted by fishtank

Dow future is down 450 on fears of new variant in South Africa .... if it’s confirmed it’s going to be a red Christmas.

[flydude]

Good day to buy AC with the Covid variant found in South Africa

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by flydude

Good day to buy AC with the Covid variant found in South Africa

There is no good day to buy Air Canada. Any company that is Quebec based is already heavily suspect, and having gone bankrupt twice, screwing stock holders, creditors and tax payers, I would never buy them. Leopards don't change their spots and Airlines are among the worst managed companies in the world.

If you want to have a look at a stock that is on fire sale over their argument with Amazon, have a look at Visa. Over 20% off it's recent highs. I have been buying a bunch of it at 194-196. FRU- Freehold Royalties is off 10% this morning, another worth a look. Today's pull back in the Canadian Banks is another opportunity given the upcoming earnings releases will be very strong and they will all announce increased dividends, share buy backs etc. (Except Laurentian Bank, worst run bank in Canada for decades and another Quebec based company.)

Before anyone calls me anti French, here is just a short list of the most recent Quebec based failures or embarrassments; SNC Lavalin, Bombardier, Nortel, Le Chateau, Aldo, David's Tea, Cirque de Soliel, Air Canada (Banko twice), Laurentian Bank, Noranda etc

[flydude]

Originally Posted by Dean2

There is no good day to buy Air Canada. Any company that is Quebec based is already heavily suspect, and having gone bankrupt twice, screwing stock holders, creditors and tax payers, I would never buy them. Leopards don't change their spots and Airlines are among the worst managed companies in the world.

If you want to have a look at a stock that is on fire sale over their argument with Amazon, have a look at Visa. Over 20% off it's recent highs. I have been buying a bunch of it at 194-196. FRU- Freehold Royalties is off 10% this morning, another worth a look. Today's pull back in the Canadian Banks is another opportunity given the upcoming earnings releases will be very strong and they will all announce increased dividends, share buy backs etc. (Except Laurentian Bank, worst run bank in Canada for decades and another Quebec based company.)

Before anyone calls me anti French, here is just a short list of the most recent Quebec based failures or embarrassments; SNC Lavalin, Bombardier, Nortel, Le Chateau, Aldo, David's Tea, Cirque de Soliel, Air Canada (Banko twice), Laurentian Bank, Noranda etc

Totally agree, it was a joke, calm down.
I just pulled out of TD short of $96 and Fru at mid $12. Don't like the sound of this new variant. I made the right moves back in Feb 2020 when I pulled every dime. I have a eerily similar feeling today. Monday may come as a shocker, we'll see... Sometimes you just have to go with your gut feeling.

[Outbound]

Originally Posted by Dean2

Before anyone calls me anti French, here is just a short list of the most recent Quebec based failures or embarrassments; SNC Lavalin, Bombardier, Nortel, Le Chateau, Aldo, David's Tea, Cirque de Soliel, Air Canada (Banko twice), Laurentian Bank, Noranda etc

I do everything I can to avoid doing business with or supporting companies from Quebec. I'll never own a Can-Am atv for that reason. I avoid Ontario as much as possible too. West is Best.

[Twisted Canuck]

Originally Posted by flydude

Totally agree, it was a joke, calm down.
I just pulled out of TD short of $96 and Fru at mid $12. Don't like the sound of this new variant. I made the right moves back in Feb 2020 when I pulled every dime. I have a eerily similar feeling today. Monday may come as a shocker, we'll see... Sometimes you just have to go with your gut feeling.

Are you trading in a TFSA? Just wondering what the capital gains hit is like pulling everything like that, and trying to time markets? Not wanting to pry into your personal financials, but I am curious how you play that to avoid excessive tax exposure.

I had an entirely different strategy in Feb of 2020. I did nothing. My portfolio valuation took a massive hit. And I didnt lose any sleep. And 20 months later it was considerably higher then pre Feb 2020. If there is another dump Monday, I'm going to do precisely nothing again. Long term investing in well managed companies has always been my conservative position. As long as you have the time, it is on your side. I don't have the nerves to be jumping in and out.

[flydude]

Originally Posted by Twisted Canuck

Are you trading in a TFSA?

Yes and SDRSP

[doublehaul]

There are many negative numbers today, and reason for it?

[Twisted Canuck]

Originally Posted by flydude

Yes and SDRSP

I figured that was probably the case. It's a good way to do it.

Originally Posted by doublehaul

There are many negative numbers today, and reason for it?

Yes, apparently it is 'fear of new covid variant' from South Africa. If you believe that. Coupled with lockdown in Europe and Australia, and whoever else wants to get onboard the Crazy Train. You can just about hear world governments warming up the money printing presses.

[nelsonob1]

Inflation being where it is, one would think they were terrified of printing any more money. Even if this or some other variant shows up, I think the CERB teat is now dry.

Originally Posted by Twisted Canuck

I figured that was probably the case. It's a good way to do it.



Yes, apparently it is 'fear of new covid variant' from South Africa. If you believe that. Coupled with lockdown in Europe and Australia, and whoever else wants to get onboard the Crazy Train. You can just about hear world governments warming up the money printing presses.