The impossible has happened

[BeeGuy]

Originally Posted by Okotokian

with granny glasses. or horned rim.

What would that be?

The devil-spawn of JT and EM?

oh god, do not visualize that!!!!

[Gust]

Originally Posted by Gust

Statistical bulletin: Crime in England and Wales, Year Ending March 2013 This product is designated as National Statistics

Part of Crime Statistics, period ending March 2013 Release

Data in this release (11) Released: 18 July 2013 Download PDF

Key points
•Latest figures from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) estimate that there were 8.6 million crimes in England and Wales, based on interviews with a representative sample of households and resident adults in the year ending March 2013. This represents a 9% decrease compared with the previous year’s survey. This latest estimate is the lowest since the survey began in 1981 and is now less than half its peak level in 1995.
•The CSEW also estimated that there were an additional 0.8 million crimes against children aged 10 to 15 resident in the household population.
•The police recorded 3.7 million offences in the year ending March 2013, a decrease of 7% compared with the previous year. This is the lowest level since 2002/03 when the last major change in police recording practice was introduced.•Victim-based crime accounted for 83% of all police recorded crime (3.1 million offences) and fell by 9% in the year ending March 2013 compared with the previous year. The volume of offences recorded in this category is equivalent to 55 recorded offences per 1,000 population.
•Other crimes against society recorded by the police (402,615 offences) showed a decrease of 10% compared with the previous year.
•In the year ending March 2013, 229,018 fraud offences were recorded by the police. This represents a volume increase of 27% compared with the previous year and should be seen in the context of a move to centralised recording of fraud.
•Within victim-based crime there were decreases across all the main categories of recorded crime compared with the previous year, except for theft from the person (up 9%) and sexual offences (1% increase). The latter increase is thought to be partly a ‘Yewtree effect’, whereby greater numbers of victims of sexual offences have come forward to report historical offences to the police.
•There were an additional 1.0 million offences dealt with by the courts in the year ending December 2012 (the latest period for which data are available), which are not included in the police recorded crime figures. These cover less serious crimes, such as speeding offences, which are dealt with no higher than magistrates courts.

Topic: Crime Trends

Latest Summaries

Repeat victimisation in property crimes infographic 28-Nov-2013
Infographic showing percentage of repeat victimisation in property crimes

Crime falls 7% in England and Wales according to Crime Survey figures 17-Oct-2013 Latest figures from the Crime Survey for England and Wales and police recorded crime

Crime recorded by the police falling at a faster rate than suggested by independent survey 17-Oct-2013

John Flatley, ONS Crime Statistics, talks about analysis of different trends in Police Recorded Crime and the Crime Survey for England and Wales

New classifications of crime introduced after public consultation 17-Oct-2013
John Flatley, ONS Crime Statistics, talks about the way changes aim to improve public understanding

Sexual offences in England and Wales year ending June 2013 Infographic 17-Oct-2013
Infographic showing findings from police recorded crime and the crime survey for England and Wales

Q&A following crime statistics announcement, period ending March 2013 18-Jul-2013
Video showing Q&A session following crime statistics announcement

Focus on: Violent Crime and Sexual Offences, 2011/12 This product is designated as National Statistics

Key points
•Violent and sexual crime covers a range of offence types. For example, violence spans minor assaults, such as pushing and shoving that result in no physical harm through to serious assault and murder. Sexual assault covers offences from indecent exposure to rape. In half of incidents identified by the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) (50%) and offences recorded by the police (56%), the violence resulted in no physical injury to the victim.

•The 2011/12 CSEW shows that there were 2.1 million violent incidents in England and Wales with 3% of adults victimised. The number of violent incidents has halved from its peak in 1995 when the survey estimated over 4.2 million violent incidents.

•Focusing on the most serious violence, the number of homicides currently recorded by the police has increased from 1961 to 2002/03, and shown a generally downward trend since. The number currently recorded for 2011/12 (540) is the lowest since 1989 (521).

•Offences involving the use of firearms peaked later than overall violent crime with 24,094 offences being recorded by the police in 2003/04. Since then the number of such offences has fallen by 60% to 9,555 recorded offences in 2011/12. The current 16% fall between 2010/11 and 2011/12 is the eighth consecutive annual decrease in firearm offences.

•With regard to sexual and domestic violence, the 2011/12 survey showed there were 536,000 victims of sexual assault in the last year and 2.0 million of domestic abuse. Although the estimated levels of domestic abuse experienced in the last year were lower than those in the 2004/05 CSEW (the baseline for this measure) there has been no statistically significant change since 2008/09. Sexual assault in the last year has shown no statistically significant change over this time period.

•The CSEW showed that young men were most likely to be the victims of violence. The profile of victims of violent and sexual violence varied according to the type of offence. In 2011/12, as in previous years, more than two-thirds of homicide victims (68%) were male. In contrast, women were more likely to be a victim of domestic abuse. Some 7% of women and 5% of men were estimated to have experienced domestic abuse in the last year, equivalent to an estimated 1.2 million female and 800,000 male victims. Similarly, the survey found that young women were much more likely to be victims of sexual assault in the last year.

•The relationship between victims and perpetrators also differed by gender. For example, homicides against men were most likely to be committed by a friend or acquaintance (39%), whilst homicides against women were most likely to be committed by a partner or ex-partner, (51%).

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/crime-...s-2011-12.html

..

[Gust]

neatoh,,, the daily mail article is the basis for this thread by the OP,, but trying to find the Tory-Stats from the article proves tricky. Whereas finding official National stats was easy.

Like Whiskey Wish and his pesticide/wetlands thread,, whose stat's/findings count?

[BeeGuy]

Originally Posted by Gust

neatoh,,, the daily mail article is the basis for this thread by the OP,, but trying to find the Tory-Stats from the article proves tricky. Whereas finding official National stats was easy.

Like Whiskey Wish and his pesticide/wetlands thread,, whose stat's/findings count?

That's a good question, and I think the answer is that you must use your critical faculties and determine that for yourself.

Or you can just copy and paste bee ess from huffpo or other trash.

I was thinking, the greatest danger with believing everything you read is not that you may be wrong/misinformed/uninformed on one issue, but that it is all encompassing. Proximate? of little consequence. Ultimate? devastating.

[Gust]

I get it (how the Tory Stat's were created,,,, it is like the missing sockeye on the West Coast.

5 years ago, 16 million sockeye don't return,,,, then 4 years ago 10 million return, then 3 years ago 12 million return and the government states that more sockeye have returned than previous years (just excluding that missing 16 million sockeye not used for the benchmark).

I must note that the above is an example of how to give an impression of gain.

[hillbillyreefer]

Originally Posted by Gust

I get it (how the Tory Stat's were created,,,, it is like the missing sockeye on the West Coast.

5 years ago, 16 million sockeye don't return,,,, then 4 years ago 10 million return, then 3 years ago 12 million return and the government states that more sockeye have returned than previous years (just excluding that missing 16 million sockeye not used for the benchmark).

I must note that the above is an example of how to give an impression of gain.

Apples to oranges. You are quoting "detected" (solved) crimes not crimes committed. Big difference. Here is the Brits definition of detected. The crime stats you are quoting have been "solved" and does not include unsolved cases. An easy mistake to make if you fail to read and comprehend.


https://www.gov.uk/government/public...s-2012-to-2013

Notes
Detected crimes are those that have been ‘cleared up’ by the police. Not every case where the police know, or think they know, who committed a crime can be counted as a detection and some crimes are counted as detected when the victim might view the case as far from solved. For any crime to be counted as detected sufficient evidence must be available to claim a detection and all of the following conditions must be met:
• a notifiable offence has been committed and recorded;
• a suspect has been identified and has been made aware that they will be recorded as being
responsible for committing that crime and what the full implications of this are; and
• one of the methods of detection listed below applies.
The police may use one of several methods to count a crime as detected. They fall into two broad categories; sanction and non-sanction detections. Once a detection has been claimed, any identifiable victim must be informed that the crime has been detected, or in the case of a child, their parent or guardian must be informed.
The detection rate is the number of detections recorded in a given year as a proportion of the total number of crimes recorded in the same period. See General Rules section H of Home Office Counting Rules (2013) for information on counting detections.

[Gust]

Originally Posted by hillbillyreefer

Apples to oranges. You are quoting "detected" crimes not crimes committed. Big difference.

Notes
Detected crimes are those that have been ‘cleared up’ by the police. Not every case where the police know, or think they know, who committed a crime can be counted as a detection and some crimes are counted as detected when the victim might view the case as far from solved. For any crime to be counted as detected sufficient evidence must be available to claim a detection and all of the following conditions must be met:
• a notifiable offence has been committed and recorded;
• a suspect has been identified and has been made aware that they will be recorded as being
responsible for committing that crime and what the full implications of this are; and
• one of the methods of detection listed below applies.
The police may use one of several methods to count a crime as detected. They fall into two broad categories; sanction and non-sanction detections. Once a detection has been claimed, any identifiable victim must be informed that the crime has been detected, or in the case of a child, their parent or guardian must be informed.
The detection rate is the number of detections recorded in a given year as a proportion of the total number of crimes recorded in the same period. See General Rules section H of Home Office Counting Rules (2013) for information on counting detections.

Can you find the stats page the daily mail is citing from. Comparative studies is neat. I see that you got this from my weblink,, I just can't find yours which leaves me to s'posings.

[Gust]

To be honest, I was initially answering to Caber regarding what constitutes a firearms crime. Plinking - I take - must be frowned upon in merry ol'england.

How firearms were used

In 2011/12, firearms were discharged in 56% of the offences in which a firearm was involved. Similar figures have been recorded over the last three years although the proportion of incidents in which a firearm has been discharged prior to 2008/09 were considerably higher, ranging from 70% in 2004/05 to 62% in 2007/08.

The likelihood of a weapon being discharged varies considerably by weapon type. In 2011/12, air weapons were discharged in 89% of recorded offences in which they were involved compared with non-air weapons which were discharged in around a third of offences (37%).
As well as being discharged, firearms can be used as a blunt instrument (hitting a victim with the weapon) or to threaten.

•Handguns were fired in 13% of the recorded offences in which they were involved, similar to the previous year.


•Shotguns were fired in half (50%) of the recorded offences in which they were involved, again similar to last year’s level. This is notably higher than previous years; for example, between 2002/03 and 2009/10, the percentage of offences in which a shotgun was fired ranged between 31-41%.

[Gust]

This one answers Cabers question on firearms crimes;

In 2011/12, firearms were used in 9,555 recorded offences in England and Wales, of which 3,351 were violence against the person offences. This represents a decrease of 16% compared with the previous year, when 11,335 offences were recorded. This compares with a 4% decrease across all offences recorded by the police over the same period.

[Gust]

The stats used in the article are from the stats I provided, EXCEPT; British Crime Survey, now just the Crime Survey, stats used for the article are specific to London and not the rest of the country. The 60% rise in crime was the clincher.

Once again politicians skewed the numbers by leaving out this crucial detail.

It appears we both have egg on our collective faces.

[greylynx]

Originally Posted by fish gunner

And the other military camp shooting . The fact that individuals cant carry side arms in the us military constitute' s a gun free zone even though roughly a dozen armed men tend the gates and randomly wander the area.

Like this fish gunner?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2...hasan/2712803/

That waste of skin is still living.

[greylynx]

Originally Posted by Gust

..

Take a criminology class. The first thing they teach you and show you is how the police can create their own data.

[Gust]

Originally Posted by greylynx

Take a criminology class. The first thing they teach you and show you is how the police can create their own data.

Regardless of whatever stats were produced, Camoron's Tories picked and chose select bits to fling about.

[fish gunner]

Originally Posted by greylynx

Like this fish gunner?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2...hasan/2712803/

That waste of skin is still living.

That is the system's way , and why justice wears a blindfold. Our hatred , there hatred does not justice make.

[6.5 shooter]

Three superior intellects and the best they can up with are insults?

Yes you know who you are....

[BeeGuy]

Originally Posted by 6.5 shooter

ali#1..... par usual is WRONG ... but I hear PETA is hiring

Originally Posted by 6.5 shooter

Three superior intellects and the best they can up with are insults?

Yes you know who you are....

Wait, who are the other 2?

If you're going out to lunch, I'll take a coffee.

[Redfrog]

http://www.mediaite.com/online/new-s...-control-myth/

[BeeGuy]

Have you read the original article?

The methods look passable but the conclusions are erroneous.

Of course, what would one expect from a statistician.

[dantonsen]

Originally Posted by hillbillyreefer

Switzerland has no where near the restrictions on guns that England has. Please post the bullet rules from Switzerland I'd like to read them. Thanks.

The US violent gun crime rate is declining while relaxing gun rules. Paradoxically the British gun crime rates are rapidly increasing as gun bans and controls increase. Please explain.

I like the part where it says 23 out of the 896 homicides were fire arms related.... That would explain large year to year changes when such a miniscule portion of murders are gun related.

Looks like gun control works

[Redfrog]

Originally Posted by BeeGuy

Have you read the original article?

The methods look passable but the conclusions are erroneous.

Of course, what would one expect from a statistician.

Thanks for that qualified assessment. I'll file your opinion on this with the others I've saved.

[BeeGuy]

Originally Posted by Redfrog

Thanks for that qualified assessment. I'll file your opinion on this with the others I've saved.

I take it you haven't read the actual article if you are linking to a tabloid journalist's interpretation.

If one only accepts what they want to hear, do they hear at all?

[6.5 shooter]

Originally Posted by BeeGuy

Wait, who are the other 2?

If you're going out to lunch, I'll take a coffee.

Sorry Starbucks was all out of double dipp crapachino so I got you a Timmies instead hope that's o.k. and not too insulting?

[Redfrog]

Originally Posted by BeeGuy

I take it you haven't read the actual article if you are linking to a tabloid journalist's interpretation.

If one only accepts what they want to hear, do they hear at all?

I see you are getting your exercise, jumping to conclusions again.

Instead of debating the points with some facts, let's shoot the messenger. Oh wait he might be packing and shoot back.

[BeeGuy]

Originally Posted by Redfrog

I see you are getting your exercise, jumping to conclusions again.

Instead of debating the points with some facts, let's shoot the messenger. Oh wait he might be packing and shoot back.

The messenger linked some tabloid junk instead of referencing the actual study.

If the bleeding doesn't stop, jam your thumb in the wound and take a knee.

There are no facts in that tabloid trash. Read the actual article then get back at me.

I don't get why people keep linking to tabloid websites as a source of information.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by hillbillyreefer

After banning most civilian handgun ownership handgun crime has risen in England. It's also interesting the way the Brits frequently change how crime is reported and classified. It makes it easier to confuse and lie to the population.

UK Gun Crime Soars by 35%
Gun crime soars by 35%

January 5th, 2014

The Government's latest crime figures were condemned as "truly terrible" by the Tories today as it emerged that gun crime in England and Wales soared by 35% last year.

With new recording procedures taken into account the actual overall rise was just 2%, the Home Office said.


The number of homicide victims killed by firearms increased 32%, or 23 cases, in the year to April 2002.

Overall there was a 1% rise in the number of homicides to 858 in England and Wales.

Population of Great Britain 80 million

23 murders with guns

Population of the US 300 million

9146 murders with guns

http://www.theguardian.com/news/data...hip-world-list

So seriously...they explained that new reporting caused most of the increase. At the same time how many murders do you need to have 23 murders total after a 35% INCREASE? 5?

What would a 35% increase in murders in the US make? 3400?

This article is purely designed to suck people into buying a paper that either supports their view or goes against their view. This article is purely entertainment. Something to discuss on AOF.

Any comparisons to using this to argue in favor of guns is purely bogus.

What I would love to see is out of the massive number of gun murders in the US... how many of them are bad guy on bad guy? If you could show me that the family violence, random killings are comparable percentage wise between US and GB then you would have a cool statistic to boast about.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by dantonsen

I like the part where it says 23 out of the 896 homicides were fire arms related.... That would explain large year to year changes when such a miniscule portion of murders are gun related.

Looks like gun control works

X2... some people get lost in the entertainment value don't they.

[Redfrog]

Originally Posted by BeeGuy

The messenger linked some tabloid junk instead of referencing the actual study.

If the bleeding doesn't stop, jam your thumb in the wound and take a knee.

There are no facts in that tabloid trash. Read the actual article then get back at me.

I don't get why people keep linking to tabloid websites as a source of information.

I'm not doing you work for you and I'm not your babysitter.
I pointed you in a direction, if you are afraid or ill equiped to venture into the world of alternative ideas, then stay where you feel safe.

[BeeGuy]

Red,

Have you read the original article that the tabloid you linked to is based on?

It is called:

An examination of the effects of concealed weapons laws and assault weapons bans on state-level murder rates

Simple question.

[hillbillyreefer]

Gun crime is an all encompassing phrase. Murder is only one type of gun crime.

[fish gunner]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

X2... some people get lost in the entertainment value don't they.

Thank you SDF it made no sense , that a nation that has very little casual gun culture would suddenly end up like the US. 23 total firearm murders . How many per 100000 ,oh .028 per. Roughly half of Canada's .5 per .