Oil Crashing

[martinnordegg]

Oil is at $50.70 this morning. Hopefully it won't break the 50 buck floor.

[thunderheart]

Originally Posted by martinnordegg

Oil is at $50.70 this morning. Hopefully it won't break the 50 buck floor.

i am sure it will ... sure like to see edmonton prices for gas ..1.04 here

[79ford]

Oil will keep dropping probably. China bought an extra 160 million barrels to stock pile last month and the price of oil kept dropping almost daily. There is a tonne of oil out there sloshing around. The big export terminal in libya caught on fire last week and oil is still down 5$.

Everyone is just given'er pumping to make up for the decline and that is just adding to the decline.

Mexico and venezuela are giving 4$ discounts on heavy oil to fight with us for exports to the usa. Heavy oil posted sticker price is 37$ already, mexico is selling for 33$, we are going to have to start chasing that to keep exports moving.

Oil producers are fighting over customers and yeeeeaaaah, life is going to suck for high cost producers.

[Sundancefisher]

Hang on. A bumpy 2015 is coming for Albertans.

[avb3]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Hang on. A bumpy 2015 is coming for Albertans.

Flush out a lot of people who, shall we say, should be flushed out. Very few smart ones will be hurt.... Too much money was made on the good times.

[Mackinaw]

Originally Posted by avb3

Flush out a lot of people who, shall we say, should be flushed out. Very few smart ones will be hurt.... Too much money was made on the good times.

Good to see you take peoples misfortunes so glib with any luck you will be one......

Mack

[martinnordegg]

The TSX is off just about 400 points. Oil is hovering around $50.15. Looks like it may break the 50 buck floor. I feel sorry for the families that are really going to get hurt.

[79ford]

One year of prices this low represents 64 billion dollar revenue loss for alberta companies.... even six months means 32 billion. This adds up to 18% or 9% of total alberta gdp. That is a massive hit.

Considering most companies in alberta lose money or make pretty slim profit margins those billions will hit equipment and manpower hard. My work will keep running but i imagine stuff will probably not be getting fixed

Oil was one of the only good things going in the world so as all these oil states grind into recessions etc even more oil will be exported. Russia is a great example, the recession is expected to shave 500 000barrels per day out of their demand meaning an extra 500kbpd going to export... to make up for loss of price they are pumping harder and harder (new post soviet record in decemeber) to offset declines in revenue.

The whole circle is very vicious. Annnnd you cant forget speculators, the same guys that drove prices up in the good times are pulling out and another type of speculator is stepping in and driving prices lower.

You have to remember that this time instead of opec trying to keep prices up they want to run tarsands and shale out of town. So unless north america etc comes up with a way to slash 2-3million barrels in production life is going to get worse.

[sakogreywolf]

Opec is no longer the influence that they once were......that is why they are not cutting production. Markets/supply and demand are cyclical. That's the way it has always been and the way it always will be. While it is a cliché, it is true that going forward, the best cure for low prices.......is low prices; and while it may take some time, the markets will sort it out.

[rugatika]

Hopefully, the people that get hurt by this are able to hang on and get restarted.

[Wild&Free]

Debt keeps climbing at its exponential rate and the economy is proceeding on its normal s curve. after this go around, the next bust in the cycle will happen sooner then the gap we had this time. the cycle will continue to run is shorter and shorter intervals until debt growth has exceeded any rise in economic growth and our entire system will collapse.

it's time for not only a personal debt jubilee but a sovereign debt jubilee otherwise debt will ruin everything. it's happened before, it will happen again.

[Buckle]

Does anyone think this will start a war?

[Wild&Free]

Originally Posted by Buckle

Does anyone think this will start a war?

The war already started.

[Arty]

http://www.businessinsider.com/wti-b...nuary-5-2015-1

"Our markets are coming unglued
Just look at a chart of our crude
Like many suspect
Our markets are wrecked
From mountains of debt we accrued"

[amosfella]

Originally Posted by Wild&Free

The war already started.

Problem is, very very few folks know who is actually starting the war....

[avb3]

Originally Posted by Mackinaw

Good to see you take peoples misfortunes so glib with any luck you will be one......

Mack

Do you really think those that have been responsible during the boom will be hurt? Some will, no doubt, and those we should all feel for, but how many do you know who NEEDED that 66K truck and similarity priced RV, all the quads, expensive vacations, large bar and restaurant tabs, McMansion, latest and greatest electronic toys etc etc. All of it financed to the limit.

Those I have no empathy for as they didn't think and were irresponsible. They'll recover, become responsible, and when they try to pass the lessons on, there will be a new group of know it all high flyers.

That cycle had been part of Alberta for decades.

[Selkirk]

Originally Posted by martinnordegg

. . . Hopefully it won't break the 50 buck floor.

Right now, the price of oil has no 'floor'.

Originally Posted by rugatika

Hopefully, the people that get hurt by this are able to hang on and get restarted.

I've been through this several times now, including the *&^%$#@ fiasco of a disaster in the early '80s.

Those who are smart and prepared, will mostly do OK. As for the others ... not so much.

Mac

[Wild&Free]

Originally Posted by MacLeod

Right now, the price of oil has no 'floor'.

Mac

Lowest prediction I've seen is $13.65USD

[elkdump]

Originally Posted by Wild&Free

Lowest prediction I've seen is $13.65USD

That should compute into about $0.25cents a litre for gas at the pump !

Whoopee .!

[Wild&Free]

Originally Posted by amosfella

Problem is, very very few folks know who is actually starting the war....

Knowing is half of it. believing it, is a whole other ball of wax.

[Redfrog]

Consumers were whining when gas was $1.30 a liter. Oil companies said suck it up buttercup. Maybe they knew something we didn't.

[Wild&Free]

Originally Posted by Redfrog

Consumers were whining when gas was $1.30 a liter. Oil companies said suck it up buttercup. Maybe they knew something we didn't.

Lumber companies knew the US housing market was going to collapse back in '06. Straight from the mouth of a VP of the company I was working for.

[thenaturalwoodsman]

$49.95 is the low so far today....Not good!

[amosfella]

Originally Posted by Wild&Free

Knowing is half of it. believing it, is a whole other ball of wax.

what do you think is starting the war??

[Macdrizzle]

Originally Posted by Buckle

Does anyone think this will start a war?

its called price wars

[elkdump]

I wish I had Putin's personal phone number,,,, I would call him up and see if he us ready to sell some of his hunting territories for USD ,

He has to be peesing his pants by now

[martinnordegg]

Originally Posted by MacLeod

Right now, the price of oil has no 'floor'.


Very true but one can only hope.




I've been through this several times now, including the *&^%$#@ fiasco of a disaster in the early '80s.

Those who are smart and prepared, will mostly do OK. As for the others ... not so much.

Mac

I have hit all those and even the one in the seventies. I know when things went for chit in the oil patch I worked in a gas station, drove a tow truck, helped farmers plant and harvest, whatever I could get.

This last run of good times in the patch is the longest one I have seen.

Maybe the new TFW legislation came in time.

My Dad use to say these downturns built character.

[thunderheart]

first and formost .. i wish no ill to anyone ..but i hope the oil drops to like someone said 13 or 14 bucks a barrel .. and that gas prices refect cuz i love to drive .. buck 40 to 50 here is a killer ..

gonna cover some country this yr i hope

time will tell but i hope everyone makes it thru the chit storm that is on the horizon

[Winch101]

It's like a successful marriage ,I love you through the good and bad .
When your up and down ......maybe not so much when your a total
Bitch .
My wife and I renovated and sold 7 houses on the Tims plan .
Double double , double up .
The last one I bought was way bigger than we need . My retired
Friends said why so big . I said so my kids and grand muffins will
Have a place to live ,when the circus leaves town .

My dad told Me ." With every boom there's a bust "
I didn't come here in 74 but was ecstatic to come
In 91 . 20 good years cant complain .

Just as in 82 late arrivals might bite the bullet .

It will be interesting only to see if all those alternative
Industries that supposedly make us less dependant on oil
Can keep us up . Or another Alberta dream .

Remember the Alberta motto ....." Sometimes the bull****
Is on the outside of the boots "

[Macdrizzle]

Originally Posted by thunderheart

first and formost .. i wish no ill to anyone ..but i hope the oil drops to like someone said 13 or 14 bucks a barrel .. and that gas prices refect cuz i love to drive .. buck 40 to 50 here is a killer ..

gonna cover some country this yr i hope

time will tell but i hope everyone makes it thru the chit storm that is on the horizon

You claim you don't wish ill on anyone, then say you hope oil drops to 12 dollars a barrel.....