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  #1021  
Old 03-31-2020, 09:16 PM
Deer Hunter Deer Hunter is offline
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Perhaps the government assistance to the energy companies has leaked
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  #1022  
Old 03-31-2020, 09:17 PM
dth_ dth_ is offline
 
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Bull trap and short covers? Fiscal stimulus wont arrive in time for many companies, consumer spending has plummeted. 80% of the workforce is literally sitting idle. I'm gonna look at the fundamentals here and ignore the hype. Oil companies are in trouble, bail out or not.

As for AC, remember 2009? They are too big to fail! And that was with a conservative government
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  #1023  
Old 03-31-2020, 09:57 PM
Arty Arty is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Austin View Post
What about thoughts on Chevron and Exxon as a buy?
Sell 25 dollar puts a couple of months out for grocery and gas money. If it doesn't go down that far, rinse and repeat. If you do get assigned, immediately slam some short-term covered calls on it - how far out of the money you choose depends how badly you want to keep it.

Lots of discussion right now too on what sort of dividend cut could happen. If a stock price tanks, a company can drop a dividend big time and still have it calculate in as the same percentage yield for new investors. When a cut is announced, the stock price will drop off the cliff again unless it was so high that a company was being bled dry. Cash flow for Exxon has been pretty good of course, so a cut is not probable. But then neither was this china-virus.

It's a way better deal today than a few months back, but I'd still put together some sort of protective position. It's a bit late for a bear put spread; too early for a call spread. No reason to go long right now either. And don't go long puts, the insurance is way too expensive.
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  #1024  
Old 04-01-2020, 06:39 AM
Full Metal Jacket Full Metal Jacket is offline
 
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Originally Posted by 260 Rem View Post
Maybe Air Canada hauls a lot of freight? They are well managed and positioned to bounce back in a space that will have weeded out the weak.
Have a look at CJT (CargoJet) if you're interested in the cargo/e-commerce surge from the explosion of online shopping recently...they are hiring 50 more pilots and are swamped as the only pure play air cargo provider in Canada.

It's fascinating to see if the surge in e-commerce continues post-COVID...while the industry was already in healthy growth (Shopify and Amazon to name just a couple), the recent move up in this trend is remarkable.

In conjunction, numerous tech companies providing cloud based applications for stay-at-home workers, students etc. have seen massive increases in usage...Microsoft reported 700%+ increases in their cloud services that compete, in scale, with AWS and Google Cloud. Could be great opportunities for investors here that believe the digitization trend will also accelerate post COVID. Also consider the 2nd derivatives of this...cybersecurity providers, virtual network providers and video conferencing/remote collaboration.

Some themes that were healthy before may see a permanent acceleration.
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  #1025  
Old 04-01-2020, 07:04 AM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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Have a look at CJT (CargoJet) if you're interested in the cargo/e-commerce surge from the explosion of online shopping recently...they are hiring 50 more pilots and are swamped as the only pure play air cargo provider in Canada.

It's fascinating to see if the surge in e-commerce continues post-COVID...while the industry was already in healthy growth (Shopify and Amazon to name just a couple), the recent move up in this trend is remarkable.

In conjunction, numerous tech companies providing cloud based applications for stay-at-home workers, students etc. have seen massive increases in usage...Microsoft reported 700%+ increases in their cloud services that compete, in scale, with AWS and Google Cloud. Could be great opportunities for investors here that believe the digitization trend will also accelerate post COVID. Also consider the 2nd derivatives of this...cybersecurity providers, virtual network providers and video conferencing/remote collaboration.

Some themes that were healthy before may see a permanent acceleration.
We will definitely see a big change after this covid19 ends , life will not be the same again because this covid19 has change the world and ways people go about their normal habits , even people who donít used online shopping are learning it, also find convenience of it . Hospital will be more prepared and stock more emergency items. Big shift in government policyís .
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  #1026  
Old 04-01-2020, 07:10 AM
elkhunter11 elkhunter11 is online now
 
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Originally Posted by fishtank View Post
We will definitely see a big change after this covid19 ends , life will not be the same again because this covid19 has change the world and ways people go about their normal habits , even people who donít used online shopping are learning it, also find convenience of it . Hospital will be more prepared and stock more emergency items. Big shift in government policyís .
More people shopping online, is not always a good thing, As for governments changing policies, the only changes we will likely see, is governments passing more legislation to have more control over the citizens, again, not a good thing.
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  #1027  
Old 04-01-2020, 07:33 AM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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More people shopping online, is not always a good thing, As for governments changing policies, the only changes we will likely see, is governments passing more legislation to have more control over the citizens, again, not a good thing.
Never said it was a good thing ... some of these current policies felt like this is just a big experiment to see what they can get away with .with some of the thing they push through with the emergency act. Watch the political blame game afterwards. In crunch time it will show a true leader character...... Canada donít have either .
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  #1028  
Old 04-01-2020, 12:37 PM
thenaturalwoodsman thenaturalwoodsman is offline
 
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Where did everyone go? Quiet around here.
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  #1029  
Old 04-01-2020, 01:09 PM
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Jigsalot Jigsalot is offline
 
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Where did everyone go? Quiet around here.
Busy doing projects. Really no point watching markets. Sure Toronto did itís up trend yesterday but in reality what reason should the markets go up. No reason. Summer is when I look at getting back in maybe. Be careful if you are investing right now due to all the P&D plays coming online. Already watched a few pharm companies get jacked up and then tank. Those are for rookie investors
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  #1030  
Old 04-01-2020, 01:14 PM
Buckhead Buckhead is offline
 
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Watching. Waiting.
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  #1031  
Old 04-01-2020, 01:24 PM
thenaturalwoodsman thenaturalwoodsman is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Jigsalot View Post
Busy doing projects. Really no point watching markets. Sure Toronto did itís up trend yesterday but in reality what reason should the markets go up. No reason. Summer is when I look at getting back in maybe. Be careful if you are investing right now due to all the P&D plays coming online. Already watched a few pharm companies get jacked up and then tank. Those are for rookie investors

I guess depends what you want to invest in. However IMO, all will not bottom at the same time, oil is bouncing all over the place in the last hour today, Trump is twitchy he simply says the word "Oil" and it goes up......
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  #1032  
Old 04-01-2020, 01:56 PM
1stLand 1stLand is offline
 
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Ive come to realize the markets are a Ponzi scheme and not based on any solid economic fundamentals.
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  #1033  
Old 04-01-2020, 03:03 PM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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Ive come to realize the markets are a Ponzi scheme and not based on any solid economic fundamentals.
last one to cash out get left holding the bag....
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  #1034  
Old 04-01-2020, 03:15 PM
Full Metal Jacket Full Metal Jacket is offline
 
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Originally Posted by 1stLand View Post
Ive come to realize the markets are a Ponzi scheme and not based on any solid economic fundamentals.
Sentiment is a quantifiable factor in free markets...no doubt.

Hence you see individual metrics with different 'baselines' along sectors.

Good economic fundamentals are important and if you use 'time' to your benefit, the history of the markets always goes 'up and to the right'...just not in a straight line!

'Timing the market' is a proven fools game.

As retail investors if we can stay disciplined to analyzing fundamentals, avoiding confirmation bias and keep emotions out of our decisions, we can achieve an acceptable return on investments.
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  #1035  
Old 04-01-2020, 03:16 PM
pikeman06 pikeman06 is offline
 
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I'm sticking to my magic number of 10500 on the tsx. Can't make any sense of stocks getting run up with closed doors and 5 dollar oil. Not sure what to make of the rally but I'll just stay put till like an earlier poster said June or July when this thing straightens out even slightly or the find a vaccine or medicine for this virus thing.
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  #1036  
Old 04-01-2020, 05:59 PM
thenaturalwoodsman thenaturalwoodsman is offline
 
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https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/massive-...-war-1.1416022
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  #1037  
Old 04-01-2020, 06:38 PM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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well we might see 7% GST after this ...or the PST
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  #1038  
Old 04-01-2020, 08:25 PM
MooseRiverTrapper MooseRiverTrapper is offline
 
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How many of these companies like CVE and MEG arenít going to pull through this and go bankrupt?
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  #1039  
Old 04-01-2020, 08:54 PM
pikeman06 pikeman06 is offline
 
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Originally Posted by MooseRiverTrapper View Post
How many of these companies like CVE and MEG arenít going to pull through this and go bankrupt?
Pretty sure thats why the government fast tracked the keystone and pushing thru on the transmountain. I think the government has a stake in these big projects some how, weather it's a loan guarantee or a bailout clause of some sort that leaves the government holding the ball...I just know that the "hot bit" and steam assisted stuff is a nite mare to shut in. Pretty much gotta keep producing and product flowing. That's probably got alot to do with it too. I sure the Saudis and the Russians know that too. We be giving oil away pretty soon.
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  #1040  
Old 04-01-2020, 09:13 PM
thenaturalwoodsman thenaturalwoodsman is offline
 
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Originally Posted by pikeman06 View Post
Pretty sure thats why the government fast tracked the keystone and pushing thru on the transmountain. I think the government has a stake in these big projects some how, weather it's a loan guarantee or a bailout clause of some sort that leaves the government holding the ball...I just know that the "hot bit" and steam assisted stuff is a nite mare to shut in. Pretty much gotta keep producing and product flowing. That's probably got alot to do with it too. I sure the Saudis and the Russians know that too. We be giving oil away pretty soon.

I really dont know how much oil will be given away. It seems to me Trump will have the oil prices fixed and WTI back at $30 long before he has enuff PPE to go around for medical staff or patients.
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  #1041  
Old 04-01-2020, 09:45 PM
pikeman06 pikeman06 is offline
 
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Originally Posted by thenaturalwoodsman View Post
I really dont know how much oil will be given away. It seems to me Trump will have the oil prices fixed and WTI back at $30 long before he has enuff PPE to go around for medical staff or patients.
I hope you are right but we ain't WTI out here for the most part and we ain't anywhere near the end of this covid thing either. I'm sure there's more storage then we know about, we max out our storage it just adds to the glut. That product has to go, with everyone locked down the consumption is way down globally I must assume.
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  #1042  
Old 04-01-2020, 09:55 PM
thenaturalwoodsman thenaturalwoodsman is offline
 
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Yes I just meant once WTI moves up or down all grades in North America do as well, WCS etc. I Agree Covid is definitely not over but when Trump says the word "oil" stocks move. Interesting times for sure!
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  #1043  
Old 04-01-2020, 10:38 PM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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Chinaís factoryís in Shenzhen are getting furloughed for 3 months due to no orders from Europe and the USA .
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  #1044  
Old 04-02-2020, 06:28 AM
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TBark TBark is offline
 
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Iím just not looking at the markets anymore, no sense.
Yes sure, if Iíd know a month ago I would have dumped and bought it all back a week ago, but oh well.
I was approaching a big number in my portfolio, and I donít care to say what that # was, but now down 20-25% and others are down 30% or more, then Iíd say my investor guy was doing his job.
The way I look at it is, Iíve been in the industry working steady for 35 years now and none of my portfolio ever came off my pay, it is all Co portions of savings plans etc and one severance - RRSPíd.
If it all goes poof...
Still healthy and working, just need 2-3 more years than planned now.

TBark
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  #1045  
Old 04-02-2020, 09:01 AM
thenaturalwoodsman thenaturalwoodsman is offline
 
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Anyone see the price of oil?
I know most were waiting for summer to time the markets but...
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  #1046  
Old 04-02-2020, 07:17 PM
MyAlberta MyAlberta is offline
 
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Now itís 3m. Is anything safe?
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  #1047  
Old 04-02-2020, 09:07 PM
dth_ dth_ is offline
 
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Curious how much automated trading and algorithms are playing into the volatility in the markets right now.

Very curious to see what happens between Saudi and Russia... I feel like oil isn't out of the woods just yet.
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  #1048  
Old 04-02-2020, 09:24 PM
thenaturalwoodsman thenaturalwoodsman is offline
 
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Originally Posted by dth_ View Post
Curious how much automated trading and algorithms are playing into the volatility in the markets right now.

Very curious to see what happens between Saudi and Russia... I feel like oil isn't out of the woods just yet.

For anyone interested in anything to do with Oil tomorrow should be nothing short of a Rodeo.... Trump is claiming this or that between 2 dictators. Oil could be $20 or $30 tomorrow depending on what is said or ďsupposedlyĒ said. Also trump is meeting with heavy oil Execís tomorrow. This is a pretty Nutty situation!
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  #1049  
Old 04-02-2020, 10:03 PM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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Originally Posted by thenaturalwoodsman View Post
For anyone interested in anything to do with Oil tomorrow should be nothing short of a Rodeo.... Trump is claiming this or that between 2 dictators. Oil could be $20 or $30 tomorrow depending on what is said or ďsupposedlyĒ said. Also trump is meeting with heavy oil Execís tomorrow. This is a pretty Nutty situation!
Trump had a dream that he spoke with Putin and the Saudis ..... cause the spokesman for Putin said no such conversation happen with the Saudis . As for market itís a day trader dream with the volatility. Another thing is warren buffet is planning to give some desperate company a loan probably with some conditions ( like Goldmanís and bank of americas ) ... if i was lazy I would just let buffet do all the work and put my money in brk B shares .
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  #1050  
Old 04-02-2020, 10:16 PM
thenaturalwoodsman thenaturalwoodsman is offline
 
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Originally Posted by fishtank View Post
Trump had a dream that he spoke with Putin and the Saudis ..... cause the spokesman for Putin said no such conversation happen with the Saudis . As for market itís a day trader dream with the volatility. Another thing is warren buffet is planning to give some desperate company a loan probably with some conditions ( like Goldmanís and bank of americas ) ... if i was lazy I would just let buffet do all the work and put my money in brk B shares .

Nah. I would Just Sit back and quarantine another 14 days it's way safer than the oil market or these markets in general. Or you could always wait for summer there may be a new Virus by then tho!
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