Ford's EV Division Posts a 3B Loss

[Stinky Buffalo]

Bearing in mind, it's effectively treated as a startup - so growing pains are to be expected...

Patrick AndersonPatrick Anderson
Founder of Supported Intelligence LLC, and principal at Anderson Eco

Ford just said out loud what many industry insiders have known: the huge investments in electric vehicles are draining billions of dollars from the profitable business of making and selling traditional ICE powered cars.

For #Ford, that means $3 billion in losses on EVs, just in 2023. That's on top of $2 billion in 2022. And all that is with big subsidies from taxpayers in states where battery plants are being built, plus taxpayer subsidies for purchase tax credits. On top of that is the fact that most #EVs sell for tens of thousands of dollars more than typical internal combustion engine ("ICE") vehicles.

Ford is to be commended for reporting to #investors and the public the truth. Ford's management believes that the huge investments will pay off, and Ford President Jim Farley statements indicate they would start paying off by 2026. Lots of people agree with that conjecture. If Ford tells their investors what they are doing, their investors can fairly decide if they want to continue to hold Ford stock or not.

The Anderson Economic Group, LLC research on the electric vehicle market since 2021 underlines the risks. Let's recap a few of them, with a link to current research for each:

Risk no. 1: the charging infrastructure is inadequate.
https://lnkd.in/dawT8FzR

Risk no. 2: EV prices are too high, and sales will be concentrated in the luxury segment.
https://lnkd.in/gvRZ6Wjz

Risk no. 3: the real-world cost of fueling EVs, once taxes and the cost of chargers and commercial charging fees are included, will be higher than for ICE vehicles for many drivers.
https://lnkd.in/dNEVNADq

You can add to these three a fourth: the huge bets being made on electrification in the industry won't pay off in time, leading to a pullback among established OEMs and possibly a string of business failures among EV startups.

[59whiskers]

Originally Posted by Stinky Buffalo

Bearing in mind, it's effectively treated as a startup - so growing pains are to be expected...

Business losses are a write off, everyone will pay.

[3blade]

Niche market in heavily populated urban centers at appropriate latitudes with access to hydro therefore debatably “clean” electricity

The other 9.5/10ths of North America…we don’t talk about that

[Drewski Canuck]

I was in California in February. EV Cars were as rare as Unicorn Farts.

It did not matter as the Media presentation of "Clean California" is a lie. Very few Electric Vehicle Recharging Stations, very few Solar Panels on buildings, and very few Wind Turbines.

So once we take all the gas and diesel burning cars off the road, there is no way to meet the demand for electrical vehicles for recharging.

To make matters worse, the Electrical Grid in the US is already hitting brown outs simply on the air conditioner load in the summer, let alone EV demand.

Electricity is a funny thing. The Grid is set up to operate at less than peak demand, and to ramp up as needed to expected maximum capacity occasionally. When that does happen, the system has to partially shut down as the transmission lines will actually glow red from the power load.

But the Grid is often reaching peak demand now, and the contribution of renewable electricity is not filling the demand that already exists.

SO how does Ford and the rest of the vehicle manufacturers plan to have their cars on the road when there is no electricity to charge them? Consumer frustration will be such that the vehicle manufacturers should consider keeping their internal combustion engine vehicle manufacturing capacity for the time being regardless of what California demands.

Drewski

[lmtada]

In Munich today. 50/50 electric/gas. The city is clean, quiet, and very little diesel particulates. Went to BMW factory. They pushing hard for electric. Many people driving electric bicycles. Side note +18c here today (Edmonton June weather). No snow and grass is green, and crocus blooming (no leaves yet). Back to drinking beer…🍺

[Trochu]

Originally Posted by Drewski Canuck

I was in California in February. EV Cars were as rare as Unicorn Farts.

You must see way, way more unicorns that I do. In 2022, just Tesla, sold over 200k EV in California. Tesla is also the second best selling brand in the state, outselling Ford, Honda, Chevy, Kia, etc.

[Bigwoodsman]

Originally Posted by Trochu

You must see way, way more unicorns that I do. In 2022, just Tesla, sold over 200k EV in California. Tesla is also the second best selling brand in the state, outselling Ford, Honda, Chevy, Kia, etc.

Population of California is close to 40 million, 200,000 Tesla's is a unicorn fart.

BW

[kingrat]

I'm sure Trudeau will give them billions as a bailout if need be.

[Trochu]

Originally Posted by Bigwoodsman

Population of California is close to 40 million, 200,000 Tesla's is a unicorn fart.

BW

That's correct. And they each own 2 cars, so 80 million cars on the road in Cally.

[lmtada]

Originally Posted by Trochu

That's correct. And they each own 2 cars, so 80 million cars on the road in Cally.

Lol. Mexicans can’t afford vehicles.

[pikergolf]

Originally Posted by Bigwoodsman

Population of California is close to 40 million, 200,000 Tesla's is a unicorn fart.

BW

Hmm... In 2022 18.8% of new cars sold in California were ZED's, that does not include Hybrids. Must be a few unicorns running around.

[ehrgeiz]

Originally Posted by lmtada

In Munich today. 50/50 electric/gas. The city is clean, quiet, and very little diesel particulates. Went to BMW factory. They pushing hard for electric. Many people driving electric bicycles. Side note +18c here today (Edmonton June weather). No snow and grass is green, and crocus blooming (no leaves yet). Back to drinking beer…🍺

I'm jealous, Munich is a good time. I remember sitting in the park watching a 12 year old drink the same size stein as me with his folks as I took in the order and cleanliness of the place. Very nice. One of the few places I visited in Europe where I felt I could live there. Enjoy!

[Bushrat]

Originally Posted by Trochu

You must see way, way more unicorns that I do. In 2022, just Tesla, sold over 200k EV in California. Tesla is also the second best selling brand in the state, outselling Ford, Honda, Chevy, Kia, etc.

Over 15 million vehicles registered in California. 200,000 EV's = one in 750 vehicles on the road.

[Dynamic]

Originally Posted by Drewski Canuck

I was in California in February. EV Cars were as rare as Unicorn Farts.

It did not matter as the Media presentation of "Clean California" is a lie. Very few Electric Vehicle Recharging Stations, very few Solar Panels on buildings, and very few Wind Turbines.

So once we take all the gas and diesel burning cars off the road, there is no way to meet the demand for electrical vehicles for recharging.

To make matters worse, the Electrical Grid in the US is already hitting brown outs simply on the air conditioner load in the summer, let alone EV demand.

Electricity is a funny thing. The Grid is set up to operate at less than peak demand, and to ramp up as needed to expected maximum capacity occasionally. When that does happen, the system has to partially shut down as the transmission lines will actually glow red from the power load.

But the Grid is often reaching peak demand now, and the contribution of renewable electricity is not filling the demand that already exists.

SO how does Ford and the rest of the vehicle manufacturers plan to have their cars on the road when there is no electricity to charge them? Consumer frustration will be such that the vehicle manufacturers should consider keeping their internal combustion engine vehicle manufacturing capacity for the time being regardless of what California demands.

Drewski

California is a big place, were you staying in some small isolated town away from the coast? I find it hard to believe if you were on the West coast and you did not see EV's everywhere you looked. Heck I was in Vancouver last year and I would not go a minute without seeing a Tesla or other EV on the road. Heck one bus I rode on was entirely electric. I was in San Diego almost 5 years ago and there was solar panels as far as the eye could see, even back then. It has grown exponentially since then and from what I see online on a quick google search California has 30% of their total energy is from solar. If you were in a major city even Stevie Wonder would of noticed solar panels everywhere and substantially more EV's than your typical Alberta town.

[CNP]

Originally Posted by Trochu

That's correct. And they each own 2 cars, so 80 million cars on the road in Cally.

Infants own and drive cars?

[Trochu]

Originally Posted by Bushrat

Over 15 million vehicles registered in California. 200,000 EV's = one in 750 vehicles on the road.

Assuming it was illegal to sell them prior to 1 Jan. 2022 and Tesla is the only one selling them. There are closer to 900,000 on the road though, so, on average, 1 outta every 17.

For reference, Tesla sold over 200,000 EVs in Cally in 2022. Jeep sold just under 24K Wranglers in Canada in 2022.

[tirebob]

Originally Posted by Trochu

Assuming it was illegal to sell them prior to 1 Jan. 2022 and Tesla is the only one selling them. There are closer to 900,000 on the road though, so, on average, 1 outta every 17.

For reference, Tesla sold over 200,000 EVs in Cally in 2022. Jeep sold just under 24K Wranglers in Canada in 2022.

Stop talking nonsense... Since EV's are so hated as the devil's playthings it only makes sense that nobody actually has one and anything else is fake news!

[jungleboy]

These are projected losses I believe. Likely a lot more by year end

[Drewski Canuck]

The February visit saw us north of LA, in LA, and in San Diego at the University of San Diego and the area surrounding it.

On the major highways as well as on the local streets there really are few EV's, and I did look. There are also very few charge stations at places you would expect such as shopping centers and downtown areas.

Santa Barbara was fun, and on the Coast, and there were more oil wells than solar panels.

So go and see for yourself. There are not as many EV's as they would have you believe, and the charge stations are not as plentiful as they need to be.


Either way, the power grid has not expanded as it it needed for the so called EV revolution.

Funny thing is a friend took a rental Tesla at the Airport to drive down to Bowden. It was - 20 C and he was running all the heaters. He was down to 30 % at Red Deer and had alot of trouble finding a charge station, and once there, he had to wait 1 hour and 20 minutes to recharge.

He will not be buying a Tesla.

Drewski

[59whiskers]

Originally Posted by Drewski Canuck

The February visit saw us north of LA, in LA, and in San Diego at the University of San Diego and the area surrounding it.

On the major highways as well as on the local streets there really are few EV's, and I did look. There are also very few charge stations at places you would expect such as shopping centers and downtown areas.

Santa Barbara was fun, and on the Coast, and there were more oil wells than solar panels.

So go and see for yourself. There are not as many EV's as they would have you believe, and the charge stations are not as plentiful as they need to be.


Either way, the power grid has not expanded as it it needed for the so called EV revolution.

Funny thing is a friend took a rental Tesla at the Airport to drive down to Bowden. It was - 20 C and he was running all the heaters. He was down to 30 % at Red Deer and had alot of trouble finding a charge station, and once there, he had to wait 1 hour and 20 minutes to recharge.

He will not be buying a Tesla.

Drewski

My daughter and son in law had a EV for about 18 months. When making a 6 hour highway trip with 2 small children they would have to stop for a 1 hour recharge in the summer, winter recharges took longer and are more critical for safety aspect driving in rural areas. The kids also own a condo in Edmonton. The condo board implemented an extra charge for EV owners. The power grid suppling all the condo units was not designed for multiple EV’s being charged all at the same. The kids sold the EV. Needless to say they are back to driving their old gasoline Honda with out stopping for a recharge half way through a 6 hour trip.

[Fisher1]

Here is an interesting bit of advertising information I recently got from Cadillac - does not sound like there is much charging infrastructure in Canada:

Requires DC fast charging stations with 190 kW power output, which are currently extremely limited in Canada (less than 100 units available, which is subject to change) and may not be available in certain areas. Actual charge times will vary based on battery condition, output of charger, vehicle settings and outside temperature. See the vehicle's Owner's Manual for additional limitations.

[Big Grey Wolf]

Transformation to EV,s is going to be a long slow process, probably 2050 before any significant numbers on the road in Canada. Our electric grid in 2nd largest country in world has significant number of miles to rebuild.
My prediction is Canada will probably get to 50% or so electric vehicles by 2050. The Old hydrocarbon guzzler will be with us for many years, just look how Cuba has kept 50's cars on the roads.