Oil Crashing

[avb3]

A good analysis of why particularly the Saudies are making this move. Essentially is the put high cost production producers, especially shale oil from the United States, under pressure.

Interesting, and also where he says that hundred dollar oil is artificial and it'll never get back up there again. Many will argue that.

PRINCE ALWALEED: Oil Is Never Going Back To $100 - Read at Business Insider: http://www.businessinsider.com/alwal...=bi-androidapp

[levigne25]

If anyone cares to know , I was just told by the head project manager here a the northwest redwater upgrader that low oil prices will not hinder this project in any way , if anything low oil prices will help . There's a huge demand for deisel and he says they can't keep up with demand , this is the reason for this new refinery

[martinnordegg]

Originally Posted by levigne25

If anyone cares to know , I was just told by the head project manager here a the northwest redwater upgrader that low oil prices will not hinder this project in any way , if anything low oil prices will help . There's a huge demand for deisel and he says they can't keep up with demand , this is the reason for this new refinery

That's great news. This company is definately thinking long, long term. Did your project manager tell you why there is such a big demand for diesel...for now anyway?

[Deer Hunter]

Originally Posted by levigne25

If anyone cares to know , I was just told by the head project manager here a the northwest redwater upgrader that low oil prices will not hinder this project in any way , if anything low oil prices will help . There's a huge demand for deisel and he says they can't keep up with demand , this is the reason for this new refinery

Because the project manager is being paid for by the govt...

This refinery was supposed to cost 4 billion and be completed by now. Costs have escalated forcing the Alberta Government to get involved and pay for it. Read tax payers. Last estimated at $8.5 billion last summer, don't be surprised if this thing hits 10 billion when it all said and done.

This is a classic no risk to CNRL, the big EPC's and the operator; all risk on the tax payer - project.

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/econo...in-the-making/

Look at Joffre. Built in long ago out of assets from the Alberta Government, which ended up in Nova, pressured by the credit crisis and their inability to finance ended up being bought/given to the abu dabi's. The taxpayer fleeced once again.

http://www.financialpost.com/analysi...0-c4d2f923a994

Derail over.

Enjoy the work.

[javlin101]

Interesting article

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/...fer/ar-AA86uXH

[martinnordegg]

Originally Posted by Deer Hunter

Because the project manager is being paid for by the govt...

This refinery was supposed to cost 4 billion and be completed by now. Costs have escalated forcing the Alberta Government to get involved and pay for it. Read tax payers. Last estimated at $8.5 billion last summer, don't be surprised if this thing hits 10 billion when it all said and done.

This is a classic no risk to CNRL, the big EPC's and the operator; all risk on the tax payer - project.

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/econo...in-the-making/

Look at Joffre. Built in long ago out of assets from the Alberta Government, which ended up in Nova, pressured by the credit crisis and their inability to finance ended up being bought/given to the abu dabi's. The taxpayer fleeced once again.

http://www.financialpost.com/analysi...0-c4d2f923a994

Derail over.

Enjoy the work.

Thanks for posting Deer Hunter. Very interesting.

Maybe some of the cost over runs were caused by high paying construction workers participating on Forums while on the job.

Seriously this type of debacle is part of the reason the Province is in the financial state it is.

[levigne25]

Originally Posted by martinnordegg

Thanks for posting Deer Hunter. Very interesting.

Maybe some of the cost over runs were caused by high paying construction workers participating on Forums while on the job.

Seriously this type of debacle is part of the reason the Province is in the financial state it is.

Wy the negativity , I'm not working I'm onsite in a classroom , we have breaks and downtime in the classroom

[levigne25]

Originally Posted by martinnordegg

Thanks for posting Deer Hunter. Very interesting.

Maybe some of the cost over runs were caused by high paying construction workers participating on Forums while on the job.

Seriously this type of debacle is part of the reason the Province is in the financial state it is.

High paying construction worker yes , I make 43$ an hour for 10 hours a day , Saturday and Sunday I make 86$ an hour and the compagny pays me 9$ an hour additional for every hour I work to go towards my pension , instead of being jealous and negative come join our team before they give it to TFW then youl have another reason to cry lol

[martinnordegg]

Originally Posted by levigne25

High paying construction worker yes , I make 43$ an hour for 10 hours a day , Saturday and Sunday I make 86$ an hour and the compagny pays me 9$ an hour additional for every hour I work to go towards my pension , instead of being jealous and negative come join our team before they give it to TFW then youl have another reason to cry lol

No thanks. I'm retired.

[martinnordegg]

Originally Posted by levigne25

Wy the negativity , I'm not working I'm onsite in a classroom , we have breaks and downtime in the classroom

I can just imagine the wisdom being absorbed. LOL

[martinnordegg]

Originally Posted by javlin101

Interesting article

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/...fer/ar-AA86uXH

It is interesting article. Lots of people weighing in on this topic from all corners of the World.

[levigne25]

Originally Posted by martinnordegg

I can just imagine the wisdom being absorbed. LOL

All the same info that I hear from site to site for years lol

[Arty]

Originally Posted by Deer Hunter

Because the project manager is being paid for by the govt...

This refinery was supposed to cost 4 billion and be completed by now. Costs have escalated forcing the Alberta Government to get involved and pay for it. Read tax payers. Last estimated at $8.5 billion last summer, don't be surprised if this thing hits 10 billion when it all said and done.

This is a classic no risk to CNRL, the big EPC's and the operator; all risk on the tax payer - project.

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/econo...in-the-making/

Look at Joffre. Built in long ago out of assets from the Alberta Government, which ended up in Nova, pressured by the credit crisis and their inability to finance ended up being bought/given to the abu dabi's. The taxpayer fleeced once again.

http://www.financialpost.com/analysi...0-c4d2f923a994

Derail over.

Enjoy the work.

Big projects like that regularly get under-estimated up front so they can get off the ground at all. Once you get into the billion-dollar project range, there's so many politics involved with so many vested interests with their fingers in the pie that promoters have to run with numbers which can be pushed through review committee.

Of course it must be clearly recognized the only way to grow the Alberta economy properly is to increase local value-added of all product mined or harvested. Not just to yank it out of the ground raw and ship it out wherever for pennies.

Every economist knows the key to regional survival is to climb up the value-added chain as high and quickly as possible. That's why China is now the world's biggest economy, with all the private Rolls-Royces and private jets and electric high-speed rail systems etc which were unimaginable 30 years ago in the dirt-peasant Mao-Tse-Tung years.

If it means [re]-investing capital into Alberta infrastructure for the long term, so be it. But people jumping into and out of a few temporary large-scale mining construction projects then bitching about natural slowdowns or layoffs at the end or about any corporate or government reinvestment through taxes is just extremely short-sighted.

Get educated, and directly involved with government politics to promote overall vision and responsible efficiency. Government is not something that you just pick up your license plates from. With our provincial resources, we can push through legal changes making it mandatory to ONLY export finished product like diesel, lube oil, or polyethylene plastics for example. Just like the americans passed laws 40 years ago making it illegal to export crude oil out of their country. Remember the NEP? Lougheed had all the wells shut in because he pointed out those belonged to Alberta, not someplace east of Winnipeg.

Alberta Gas Trunk (Nova) was a brilliant idea when initially set up, with addition of petrochemicals in the 1970's. A very good move. Same with the NW Upgrader. But corporate 'partners' have to be managed better and tighter. All sorts of questionable behaviour by the old Nova management led to problems:

"...Nova's wrong turns include: moving its headquarters to Pittsburgh from Calgary a decade ago, which inflated its costs, cut it off from the Alberta oil and gas boom and its political and community connections; diversification into styrenics, which swelled its debt and piled up losses; not paying down debt when business was good; not investing in its money-making Alberta and Ontario assets while funnelling money into its losing businesses..."

Almost sounds to me like corporate lobbyists and foreign interests managed to waltz right in and screw up a going concern so that billions could be made by them elsewhere. Probably wouldn't have happened if some Alberta guard dogs were there watching out a little closer.

[Wild&Free]

Arty, you raise good points. Alberta, and Canada in general needs to face the fact that it is responsible for upgrading infrastructure and trade routes. Privatization places that responsibility in the hands of Profit first thinkers, not future vision thinkers. CN rail has needed massive upgrades and modernization for decades now. High speed rail from coast to coast would be a wonderful thing to have, but the ROI for a private company is too long and deemed unnecessary.

[I_forget]

Originally Posted by Wild&Free

Arty, you raise good points. Alberta, and Canada in general needs to face the fact that it is responsible for upgrading infrastructure and trade routes. Privatization places that responsibility in the hands of Profit first thinkers, not future vision thinkers. CN rail has needed massive upgrades and modernization for decades now. High speed rail from coast to coast would be a wonderful thing to have, but the ROI for a private company is too long and deemed unnecessary.

High speed rail from coast to coast? They have airplanes for that.

[The Elkster]

I just wish gov'ts could/would work to be more counter cyclical to the trend of the day. IMO forget about debt during a depression. This is the time gov't should be spending on needed projects. It'd make for cheaper labor and provide some steady work for many during down times. Then throttle back and go into debt payment mode once O&G kicks back in and royalties/wages rise. I think we'd get far more for our money this way.

[I_forget]

Originally Posted by The Elkster

I just wish gov'ts could/would work to be more counter cyclical to the trend of the day. IMO forget about debt during a depression. This is the time gov't should be spending on needed projects. It'd make for cheaper labor and provide some steady work for many during down times. Then throttle back and go into debt payment mode once O&G kicks back in and royalties/wages rise. I think we'd get far more for our money this way.

Too bad much of the world is in a debt crisis. The last 6 years have been fueled by debt and you want more? Interests rates will rise, it's only a matter of time.

[Wild&Free]

Originally Posted by I_forget

High speed rail from coast to coast? They have airplanes for that.

I enjoy traveling by train over air. See more of the country that way. Plus, it uses less energy overall, and not subject to the same delay and scheduling issues as air travel. on trips shorter then 4.5 hours(~900km) it's actually quicker then flying once security check in is factored in.

[lmtada]

Originally Posted by I_forget

Too bad much of the world is in a debt crisis. The last 6 years have been fueled by debt and you want more? Interests rates will rise, it's only a matter of time.

X2. Too much debt. 2015-2020 high volatility, big bang coming watch out. Europe crashes first. Governments cannot service there debt. That is the problem.

[Macdrizzle]

Suncor is cutting 1000 jobs + 1 billion out of 2015 capital. Looks like it's starting

http://calgaryherald.com/storyline/i...-in-to-the-bow

[The Elkster]

Originally Posted by I_forget

Too bad much of the world is in a debt crisis. The last 6 years have been fueled by debt and you want more? Interests rates will rise, it's only a matter of time.

I could have worded that better. I'd prefer they save like the dickens in boom times and spend in the downtime thus cutting some of the labor cost whilst evening out some of the work load in a boom and bust province. As it stands the gov't was spending like the dickens at the same time the companies were competing hard for workers. But then again, had gov't not done projects in the boom time they would have been hung by the electorate.

I'm not against debt at the right time though. Significant gov't cost cutting in a down time isn't going to do much but make things worse. Cut gov't capital and jobs and you cut tax income too plus create a whole lot more instability and fear into the general economy.

[martinnordegg]

Originally Posted by levigne25

All the same info that I hear from site to site for years lol

Oh, sorry, I thought you were in your early twenties.

[martinnordegg]

Originally Posted by Macdrizzle

Suncor is cutting 1000 jobs + 1 billion out of 2015 capital. Looks like it's starting

http://calgaryherald.com/storyline/i...-in-to-the-bow

Unfortunately that is alot of people being affected. Companies don't seem to be waiting even a couple months before reacting. Probably an indicator that this could be a bit of a long haul.

I was at my bean counters today and he has quite a few clients that have lost their service contracts already. A couple of them flat told him they may not be able to afford to have do their year end never mind pay any outstanding tax. Pretty sad.

[The Elkster]

Originally Posted by lmtada

X2. Too much debt. 2015-2020 high volatility, big bang coming watch out. Europe crashes first. Governments cannot service there debt. That is the problem.

There will be no crash because nobody would benefit. They will find a way to keep the system muddling along and the surfs paying what they can so that others can live off unearned debt interest rather than do real work.

[martinnordegg]

Originally Posted by The Elkster

There will be no crash because nobody would benefit. They will find a way to keep the system muddling along and the surfs paying what they can so that others can live off unearned debt interest rather than do real work.

That sure has been the case for quite a while now. At some point though the Piper will have to be paid.

[dantonsen]

Originally Posted by Macdrizzle

Suncor is cutting 1000 jobs + 1 billion out of 2015 capital. Looks like it's starting

http://calgaryherald.com/storyline/i...-in-to-the-bow

That is a pretty big cut, as far as i know operations and maintenance are already bare bones at most operating plants so these cuts must be going after managment.... if not life at some operations could get hairy

[The Elkster]

Originally Posted by martinnordegg

That sure has been the case for quite a while now. At some point though the Piper will have to be paid.

Ya think. Ask yourself. Who's the piper and what does he gain by forcing things into default?

[martinnordegg]

Originally Posted by dantonsen

That is a pretty big cut, as far as i know operations and maintenance are already bare bones at most operating plants so these cuts must be going after managment.... if not life at some operations could get hairy

It said in the article they were targeting mostly contract staff. Not sure if that would be in construction, maintenance or? In any case it sure is alot of people.

[martinnordegg]

Originally Posted by The Elkster

Ya think. Ask yourself. Who's the piper and what does he gain by forcing things into default?

Please explain.

[Deer Hunter]

Originally Posted by Arty

Big projects like that regularly get under-estimated up front so they can get off the ground at all. Once you get into the billion-dollar project range, there's so many politics involved with so many vested interests with their fingers in the pie that promoters have to run with numbers which can be pushed through review committee.

.

The province is lending the Northwest Upgrader group the money asking for a 5% rate of return to be paid back over time based on the tolls collected from the provinces (royalty) oil. The province will have no ownership in the project yet provided the money and the oil commitment to push it forward, all while being 100% over budget and behind schedule.

This is the only way refineries get built in Alberta. I hope they don't build another one, as there is no way for taxpayers to benefit beyond the 5% return. CNRL shareholders, and the people building it, they are the winners here.