Oil Crashing

[greylynx]

And not a word from Mister Prentice , our great new leader.

This guy will have to bring the hammer down on us Albertans, while the rest of Canada basks in our transfer payments.

[IR_mike]

Originally Posted by ESOXangler

I bet you most of those alberta boys dads worked in the patch. Dads were away too much working so mom raised them soft. I see it with my family too. All kinds of opportunity but no they would rather play Xbox and guitar in a band. But those kids are all over, and it's been like that since we started cooking meat.

X2

It also has something to do with the affluence of the parents since the late 90's.

When I went to high school in the decade before (ya I know old) the odd kid had a new vehicle bought as a grad present and those that had part time jobs bought vehicles 10+ years old.

Now look at your average high school parking lot, pretty new wheels.

[Mackinaw]

Originally Posted by avb3

Really?

Tell that to the millions, with a capital M, that lost there homes in the USA in the past five years.

Take a look at the Tampa, Phoenix, and Las Vegas areas just as an example and take a look how much it had dropped on the Case-Shiller index. Sure there's been some rebound, and I have some condos that have benefited from that in one of those areas, but prices now are still significantly less than they were five years ago.

If your property is worth less now then what you paid for it then you paid to much by over paying what the location is worth or over up graded what the location is worth. The worth is in the location not the building. .. Condos for rental income are one of the worst real estate investments you can buy.

Mack

[Wild&Free]

Originally Posted by greylynx

And not a word from Mister Prentice , our great new leader.

This guy will have to bring the hammer down on us Albertans, while the rest of Canada basks in our transfer payments.

http://www.fin.gc.ca/fedprov/mtp-eng.asp

seems like the only provinces not getting equalization are the former dippers to the east and the commies to the west.

[avb3]

Originally Posted by purgatory.sv

Long term you will still move forward?

I suspect my timing was good. I sold property in Alberta, and bought in the USA. Before our dollar dropped. I would not be so sure that property values in Alberta will continue to be at the high level that they are.

[avb3]

Originally Posted by Mackinaw

If your property is worth less now then what you paid for it then you paid to much by over paying what the location is worth or over up graded what the location is worth. The worth is in the location not the building. .. Condos for rental income are one of the worst real estate investments you can buy.

Mack

Currently rental prices are within 15% of what it is in Edmonton, but property values are significantly less. In the US, the issue is not necessarily income, but the devastated credit whereby people with poor credit scores cannot buy even though they could easily afford to at today's prices. It's a completely different market then what Alberta or even Canada has.

[fish gunner]

Originally Posted by IR_mike

X2

It also has something to do with the affluence of the parents since the late 90's.

When I went to high school in the decade before (ya I know old) the odd kid had a new vehicle bought as a grad present and those that had part time jobs bought vehicles 10+ years old.

Now look at your average high school parking lot, pretty new wheels.

Sure tells a story . I lived in two of the highest paid mill towns in BC trail & kitimat. kids still drove moms hand me down or a junker unless very motivated or lucky (spoiled ) . Spruce view high school has brand new cars/ trucks fcs. If mommy and daddy gave it to them ..in there eyes its worthless ..they deserve it

[fish gunner]

Originally Posted by greylynx

And not a word from Mister Prentice , our great new leader.

This guy will have to bring the hammer down on us Albertans, while the rest of Canada basks in our transfer payments.

Oh that makes me warm and fuzzy , aint socialism dandy. So who will clean up the afore mentioned mess up north ??

[sillyak]

Originally Posted by Wild&Free

All I can add is the young Alberta guys I work with aren't at the same level motivational or thinking capability as out of province guys we have hired. just my experience, I don't do the hiring, but do get a say in the first few months on what happens. out of province workers, again from my experience, appreciate what the oil patch offers them considering what they used to do, and get paid back home.

Oh FFS guys. No place in this country supplies better workers than any other. Our work tries it's hardest to hire those Sask farm boys because they work hard as hell, know how to fix everything and stick around. Some of those Ontario guys have a pretty darn good work ethic, some are pretty darn lazy and/or have no mechanical apptitude.

I'm Albertan born and raised, I work damn hard and have had quite a bit of success because of it. I'm sure there are lazy Albertans out there too.

All this fighting over who works harder, sickening. There are so many examples and counter examples that everyone can make a case that perople from X are hard workers and people from Y are lazy. Snap out of it, make a case for yourself as an individual and let others make their own.

[avb3]

Originally Posted by fish gunner

Sure tells a story . I lived in two of the highest paid mill towns in BC trail & kitimat. kids still drove moms hand me down or a junker unless very motivated or lucky (spoiled ) . Spruce view high school has brand new cars/ trucks fcs. If mommy and daddy gave it to them ..in there eyes its worthless ..they deserve it

My kids, including my son, grew up in St Albert, which has more than its share of affluent citizens. He was twisted when he didn't get any kind of a car at 16 from the old man, and pointed out friends were getting NEW cars.

Two years later he bought his first used one. Found it, checked it over, and only after he put a deposit on it subject to my inspection, did he tell me about it. He told me many years later how ticked he was that I would not fund a car for him, but realized how much better it was to earn it rather than it be given to him like many of his classmates.

Of course this is the same kid who had never rented a place to live in his life. He moved into a condo he bought a week after he graduated from NAIT, having lived at home until then. He worked and saved enough for a down payment during school, and got mortgage approval based on the job offer he had.

He never felt anything was owed to him.

Will this down turn affect him?

Nope. No debts other than his mortgage, and he had lots of equity in his now third house. He bitches about the hourly rate patch workers make in a similar trade, but was astute enough to know that a steady place of employment, with good benefits were worth more than the uncertainty of the patch. His toys are never financed.

So if some of you think I am cold hearted in not feeling sorry for some of those kids who didn't get any trade or profession, perhaps you can see why. I raised my kids to think strategically and to structure their lives to mitigate economic cycles that always will occur as much as possible. Nothing is a given, but one can always lessen potential economic threats.

There are many on this board living that. And some who don't.

[martinnordegg]

Originally Posted by avb3

My kids, including my son, grew up in St Albert, which has more than its share of affluent citizens. He was twisted when he didn't get any kind of a car at 16 from the old man, and pointed out friends were getting NEW cars.

Two years later he bought his first used one. Found it, checked it over, and only after he put a deposit on it subject to my inspection, did he tell me about it. He told me many years later how ticked he was that I would not fund a car for him, but realized how much better it was to earn it rather than it be given to him like many of his classmates.

Of course this is the same kid who had never rented a place to live in his life. He moved into a condo he bought a week after he graduated from NAIT, having lived at home until then. He worked and saved enough for a down payment during school, and got mortgage approval based on the job offer he had.

He never felt anything was owed to him.

Will this down turn affect him?

Nope. No debts other than his mortgage, and he had lots of equity in his now third house. He bitches about the hourly rate patch workers make in a similar trade, but was astute enough to know that a steady place of employment, with good benefits were worth more than the uncertainty of the patch. His toys are never financed.

So if some of you think I am cold hearted in not feeling sorry for some of those kids who didn't get any trade or profession, perhaps you can see why. I raised my kids to think strategically and to structure their lives to mitigate economic cycles that always will occur as much as possible. Nothing is a given, but one can always lessen potential economic threats.

There are many on this board living that. And some who don't.

Goodness gracious, if you think this downturn isn't going to affect your kid you are sadly mistaken. Hopefully he is more in tune with economics than you are. It is going to affect EVERYONE, just some more than others.

[Deer Hunter]

Originally Posted by avb3

My kids, including my son, grew up in St Albert, which has more than its share of affluent citizens. He was twisted when he didn't get any kind of a car at 16 from the old man, and pointed out friends were getting NEW cars.

Two years later he bought his first used one. Found it, checked it over, and only after he put a deposit on it subject to my inspection, did he tell me about it. He told me many years later how ticked he was that I would not fund a car for him, but realized how much better it was to earn it rather than it be given to him like many of his classmates.

Of course this is the same kid who had never rented a place to live in his life. He moved into a condo he bought a week after he graduated from NAIT, having lived at home until then. He worked and saved enough for a down payment during school, and got mortgage approval based on the job offer he had.

He never felt anything was owed to him.

Will this down turn affect him?

Nope. No debts other than his mortgage, and he had lots of equity in his now third house. He bitches about the hourly rate patch workers make in a similar trade, but was astute enough to know that a steady place of employment, with good benefits were worth more than the uncertainty of the patch. His toys are never financed.

So if some of you think I am cold hearted in not feeling sorry for some of those kids who didn't get any trade or profession, perhaps you can see why. I raised my kids to think strategically and to structure their lives to mitigate economic cycles that always will occur as much as possible. Nothing is a given, but one can always lessen potential economic threats.

There are many on this board living that. And some who don't.

Are you looking for someone to give you an atta boy based on how you raised your family?
Self congratulations isn't that appealing, and your not the only person in the province who has raised kids right.

[avb3]

Originally Posted by martinnordegg

Goodness gracious, if you think this downturn isn't going to affect your kid you are sadly mistaken. Hopefully he is more in tune with economics than you are. It is going to affect EVERYONE, just some more than others.

Why would you say that? His job is required whether good times or bad, he has plenty of seniority (union job), his company has never laid off people in any past down turns, and his expertise in his field takes time to accumulate.

[David Henry]

avb3, I wish the Alberta education system could afford to have one of you in every grade 12 graduating class. Your soul purpose would be to teach reality to the children of those that cant face it. D.H.

[avb3]

Originally Posted by Deer Hunter

Are you looking for someone to give you an atta boy based on how you raised your family?
Self congratulations isn't that appealing, and your not the only person in the province who has raised kids right.

Only contrasting that there are different attitudes out there then those who think they are "owed" or need to have the latest and greatest.

As I stated, there are many on this board who run their lives similarly to the way my son does. And some who don't.

[hover]

Originally Posted by avb3

Why would you say that? His job is required whether good times or bad, he has plenty of seniority (union job), his company has never laid off people in any past down turns, and his expertise in his field takes time to accumulate.

I think what these guys are trying to tell you is that some services may be cut back, roads may crumble, healthcare cutbacks, etc, due to govt money being scarce...its that simple.

[martinnordegg]

Originally Posted by avb3

Why would you say that? His job is required whether good times or bad, he has plenty of seniority (union job), his company has never laid off people in any past down turns, and his expertise in his field takes time to accumulate.

You got the blinkers on Mr.. How about increased taxes, drop in value of his real estate, decrease in wage, etc.. Sure he may keep his job and I say may but that isn't the only thing in play with a downturn.

[avb3]

Originally Posted by hover

I think what these guys are trying to tell you is that some services may be cut back, roads may crumble, healthcare cutbacks, etc, due to govt money being scarce...its that simple.

I would agree we will see some of that. What happened when Ralph did that?

We became stronger. Too bad that lesson needs to be repeated.

[waterhawk]

Originally Posted by avb3

My kids, including my son, grew up in St Albert, which has more than its share of affluent citizens. He was twisted when he didn't get any kind of a car at 16 from the old man, and pointed out friends were getting NEW cars.

Two years later he bought his first used one. Found it, checked it over, and only after he put a deposit on it subject to my inspection, did he tell me about it. He told me many years later how ticked he was that I would not fund a car for him, but realized how much better it was to earn it rather than it be given to him like many of his classmates.

Of course this is the same kid who had never rented a place to live in his life. He moved into a condo he bought a week after he graduated from NAIT, having lived at home until then. He worked and saved enough for a down payment during school, and got mortgage approval based on the job offer he had.

He never felt anything was owed to him.

Will this down turn affect him?

Nope. No debts other than his mortgage, and he had lots of equity in his now third house. He bitches about the hourly rate patch workers make in a similar trade, but was astute enough to know that a steady place of employment, with good benefits were worth more than the uncertainty of the patch. His toys are never financed.

So if some of you think I am cold hearted in not feeling sorry for some of those kids who didn't get any trade or profession, perhaps you can see why. I raised my kids to think strategically and to structure their lives to mitigate economic cycles that always will occur as much as possible. Nothing is a given, but one can always lessen potential economic threats.

There are many on this board living that. And some who don't.

I like this post. There is nothing wrong with being proud that you raised your children to be fiscally responsible, understand the value of education/training and the importance of a steady job. There is not enough of that in our society. In the next year there are going to be a lot of guys that will learn a serious lesson about living as though there is no possibility of their income dropping and making purchases on credit on the basis of that income. This lesson is learned by a new group of guys in the oil patch every five to ten years. Each group feels that the world has changed and the stories of the guys that went through the last crash has no relevance to them.

[avb3]

Originally Posted by martinnordegg

You got the blinkers on Mr.. How about increased taxes, drop in value of his real estate, decrease in wage, etc.. Sure he may keep his job and I say may but that isn't the only thing in play with a downturn.

You mean the overpriced real estate? No question it will go down. Perhaps that will allow some young adults to buy their first home. The ones who will be hurt are those who only had minimum down and thought they "had" to have that 2300 or larger square foot house.

We all know people like that.

Originally Posted by martinnordegg

You got the blinkers on Mr.. How about increased taxes, drop in value of his real estate, decrease in wage, etc.. Sure he may keep his job and I say may but that isn't the only thing in play with a downturn.

[martinnordegg]

Originally Posted by avb3

You mean the overpriced real estate? No question it will go down. Perhaps that will allow some young adults to buy their first home. The ones who will be hurt are those who only had minimum down and thought they "had" to have that 2300 or larger square foot house.

We all know people like that.

WOW is all I can say! My post was in response to you saying your kid wouldn't be affected. He WILL be affected on many fronts. Please re-read the whole post. As far as his "over-priced" real estate...if it goes down he is affected.

[Ricktye]

So, I'm wondering if this is a short term thing (3-5 years) or is it the end of the Alberta boom as we know it for the foreseeable future (30-50 years) I'm certainly no economist, but a few of things in the recent past have me wondering... It seems the western developers, Exxon, Shell, BP etc have been going around the world developing oil fields in a lot of have not countries. Those countries are now putting lots of "cheap" oil on the market, no doubt about it, at very affordable prices. OPEC ain't what it used to be and with the glut, everyone wants their share of the remaining profits. The producing companies will still make decent profits, without all the hassles they have here in Canada with environment, safety and unions etc. Now I hear Obama is going to block the Keystone pipeline; is that for enviromental reasons really, or to protect America's own interest, with all the new shale oil coming on line? So, if it cost $X to put oil from bitumin on the market, and $X-75% for the oil from the developing countries for sale on the market, which product is going to sell? I know what I'd buy, but like I said, I'm no economist. I just try and get the best deal on whatever I buy.... Food for thought. One thing for sure, life as we knew it here in Alberta for last 20 years is probably gone for ever. I think if I was a young person with a big loan, I'd probably try and liquidate and get that loan paid before I end up working at WalMart or MacDonalds.... Just an opinion, don't shoot the messenger!

[avb3]

Originally Posted by martinnordegg

WOW is all I can say! My post was in response to you saying your kid wouldn't be affected. He WILL be affected on many fronts. Please re-read the whole post. As far as his "over-priced" real estate...if it goes down he is affected.

As I guess one can say he (and all of us) were affected by the rise in real estate. Other than making us feel good about our net worth, and assuming one didn't take an equity line of credit on the house to spend, how did it change your life?

Similarly, if one was prudent during the boom, how will a decline in that same house affect your life, other than psychologically?

Even those with little equity in their homes, if they are living within their means, will have little real impact. Their payments on the house won't change, will it?

[Sporty]

Some of you discuss patch workers as though they're beneath you. School isn't for everyone and last I checked, Alberta needed patch workers and that is where some went. At the end of the day, the spending habits of some shouldn't give others the satisfaction that I'm seeing in this thread at the thought of their upcoming struggles. There are still going to be families out there that will be affected with the downturn and I can't for the life of me fathom rubbing salt in wounds that are going to be hurting to begin with. Why anyone would wish hardship on another just because you don't agree with how they lived their lives is beyond me.

[martinnordegg]

Originally Posted by avb3

As I guess one can say he (and all of us) were affected by the rise in real estate. Other than making us feel good about our net worth, and assuming one didn't take an equity line of credit on the house to spend, how did it change your life?

Similarly, if one was prudent during the boom, how will a decline in that same house affect your life, other than psychologically?

Even those with little equity in their homes, if they are living within their means, will have little real impact. Their payments on the house won't change, will it?

You haven't pulled the blinkers off yet. Good luck!

[martinnordegg]

Well, looks like today there are some gains on oil and the TSX. Hopefully the last of the dead cat bounce.

[masalma]

Originally Posted by Sporty

Some of you discuss patch workers as though they're beneath you. School isn't for everyone and last I checked, Alberta needed patch workers and that is where some went. At the end of the day, the spending habits of some shouldn't give others the satisfaction that I'm seeing in this thread at the thought of their upcoming struggles. There are still going to be families out there that will be affected with the downturn and I can't for the life of me fathom rubbing salt in wounds that are going to be hurting to begin with. Why anyone would wish hardship on another just because you don't agree with how they lived their lives is beyond me.

It is sad, but there will always be people like that. In times of hardship people's true colors show.

[martinnordegg]

Whoops, spoke too soon. Oil off again. 47.70

[rugatika]

Originally Posted by avb3

He bitches about the hourly rate patch workers make in a similar trade, .

And there we have it folks. Jealousy when times are good, glee when they're bad.

And I really don't think times are gonna be that bad unless these prices hold for an entire year or more. Projects will be put on hold, and lots of jobs on the exploration side of things will be shelved, but hopefully enough things will keep chugging along to keep people working.

One of the things my parents taught me was to treat everyone the same, even if they made more money or less money than me. Jealousy and hate will eat you up inside.

Happy New Year to the avb3 family, and hope you resolve to love your fellow man even if he makes more money than you and your family. Sounds like you did a great job raising your family and your son has a nice job with union protection. Not everyone is cut out for working in the patch and it's good to see people that recognize their limitations.

[Quinn]

Originally Posted by whitetail Junkie

The majority of Canadians are loving the price at the pumps right now and the price relief is a huge savings for the low income families.



I remember when oil reached $50 a barrel and it was a big deal because that was a high price.Im not to concerned right now along with most Canadians with oil and the economy which is fine.

Curious what you do for work or how you provide for yourself / family?