Changes coming to those mathematically impossible draws…

Rockymtnx · #1 02-02-2010, 02:01 PM

I just received a copy of ASRD’s responses to last year’s AFGA resolutions. Here are a couple resolutions and responses on a topic that has been discussed in the past couple of years amongst hunters. Looks like we might be in for some changes on those mathematically impossible draws.

GENERAL RESOLUTION NUMBER G-7-2009
BE IT RESOLVED THAT a simple random lottery for one tag per species be any draw license that is statistically impossible to draw unless the applicant is highest available priority point level; CARRIED
ASRD Response: We are currently evaluating changes to the current draw system address this. We are consulting stakeholders to cap draw species at priority six.

WILDLIFE RESOLUTION NUMBER W-3-2009
BE IT RESOLVED THAT where the Trophy Sheep Special License Draw is not Draw and applicants are drawn, the applicants are not allowed to reapply in future once in a lifetime opportunity only) ; CARRIED
ASRD Response: We are currently evaluating changes to the current draw system address this. We are consulting stakeholders to cap draw species at priority six.

Chet · #2 02-02-2010, 02:07 PM

Yikes. I can see my chances of drawing 408 sheep decrease every year now as more people hit the magic 6. I'll be real interested to see how this shakes out.

hunt_and_fish · #3 02-02-2010, 02:22 PM

That's interesting. I don't think capping priority for all species at 6 is what the AFGA was aiming for.

kidd · #4 02-02-2010, 02:46 PM

Well if this is the case, if the the cap at priority 6 is seriosly being considered, I figure I'm best to use up anything over priority 6 as soon as I can, no?
kidd

huntinstuff · #5 02-02-2010, 02:59 PM

Dang....Im at 10 for Griz when it comes back....

pdfish · #6 02-02-2010, 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by huntinstuff

Dang....Im at 10 for Griz when it comes back....

I'm at a 6, awesome!

slopeshunter · #7 02-02-2010, 03:05 PM

Ya, not quite sure what to think of a cap??

huntinstuff · #8 02-02-2010, 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdfish

I'm at a 6, awesome!

Maybe we should hunt a griz together???

If I get that tag, Im going for 2 weeks straight.

BrownBear416 · #9 02-02-2010, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by huntinstuff

Maybe we should hunt a griz together???

If I get that tag, Im going for 2 weeks straight.

Me to...

I will not waste my next Grizz tag lol

pdfish · #10 02-02-2010, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by huntinstuff

Maybe we should hunt a griz together???

If I get that tag, Im going for 2 weeks straight.

Just 2 weeks, where's the devotion??

huntinstuff · #11 02-02-2010, 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdfish

Just 2 weeks, where's the devotion??

LongDraw · #12 02-02-2010, 03:47 PM

I think a compromise is in order. what about leaving 1/2 of the tags for the top priority so eventually you will get drawn, and then 1/2 as a lotto for all of the P6's?

If it all goes to a lotto once you are at a P6 you still may never draw a tag.

packhuntr · #13 02-02-2010, 03:57 PM

Ya,,, this could turn out to be a world class wreck. Lets hope these guys arent seriously considering this. The system we have right now is unbeatable. One can build priority, watch the stats and KNOW when to pull the tag. If they are going to do this, they might as well blow the lid off the whole thing and make it random from start to finish for what this is worth. Then none of us can enjoy a pre planned tag,,, and the unlucky ones,,, well, they wont get to enjoy a tag at all, which is pretty much the way this would work out at a 6 cap and random anyways. Unreal....

LongDraw · #14 02-02-2010, 04:05 PM

With my luck and the draws there will be guys cycling through on their second tag as a P6 (12 years) for some of the hard to pull tags and I will still be waiting for my first as an unlucky P6..

This scenario would be entirely possible with this proposed change..

Duk Dog · #15 02-02-2010, 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rockymtnx

I just received a copy of ASRD’s responses to last year’s AFGA resolutions. Here are a couple resolutions and responses on a topic that has been discussed in the past couple of years amongst hunters. Looks like we might be in for some changes on those mathematically impossible draws.

GENERAL RESOLUTION NUMBER G-7-2009
BE IT RESOLVED THAT a simple random lottery for one tag per species be any draw license that is statistically impossible to draw unless the applicant is highest available priority point level; CARRIED
ASRD Response: We are currently evaluating changes to the current draw system address this. We are consulting stakeholders to cap draw species at priority six.

WILDLIFE RESOLUTION NUMBER W-3-2009
BE IT RESOLVED THAT where the Trophy Sheep Special License Draw is not Draw and applicants are drawn, the applicants are not allowed to reapply in future once in a lifetime opportunity only) ; CARRIED
ASRD Response: We are currently evaluating changes to the current draw system address this. We are consulting stakeholders to cap draw species at priority six.

Well they got that wrong. I don't have the exact wording for the current proposals going forward to conference but that was not the intent. The intent was along the lines of this. As an example say a draw has 10 tags but has a rediculous number of applicants. So many so that anyone below the top priority points level hasn't got a hope of drawing the tag and those in the top points bracket are even at tough odds. One way to modify those steep odds would be to leave the draw process in place - with say 8 of 10 tags left to those at the top of the priority points level. Take the remaining 2 of 10 tags and make them random - that way anyone from 0 priority points all the way up to the max points level has a chance. That way all applicants now have a lottery chance at 2 tags where many of those people didn't statistically have a chance of drawing ever. As for those people in the top bracket they are now hoping for one of the 8 tags allocated via the current priority points system, but they would also be eligible for one of the 2 lottery tags.

Duk Dog · #16 02-02-2010, 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packhuntr

Ya,,, this could turn out to be a world class wreck. Lets hope these guys arent seriously considering this. The system we have right now is unbeatable. One can build priority, watch the stats and KNOW when to pull the tag. If they are going to do this, they might as well blow the lid off the whole f**in thing and make it random from start to finish for what this is worth. Then none of us can enjoy a pre planned tag,,, and the unlucky ones,,, well, they wont get to enjoy a tag at all, which is pretty much the way this would work out at a 6 cap and random anyways. Unreal....

Agreed, in many ways yes Alberta does have a great draw system. It is a fact however that time has created some impossible to draw tags - all the planning in the world is not going to get you a 408 or 437 sheep tag if you aren't in the top points bracket. Heck even if you are you might be an old man before lady luck shines on you. For most of the draws the system works and works well, allowing people to plan draws/hunts etc - but there are some tags that have become out of reach. IMO those draws need some fine tuning and tweaking.

packhuntr · #17 02-02-2010, 04:26 PM

I totally agree Duk. What Im seeing in that print is a change to all draws creating a 6 cap and random. If this is actually being moved foreward, someone has to stop this, and fast.

Okotokian · #18 02-02-2010, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LongDraw

With my luck and the draws there will be guys cycling through on their second tag as a P6 (12 years) for some of the hard to pull tags and I will still be waiting for my first as an unlucky P6..

This scenario would be entirely possible with this proposed change..

Exactly. If things are so dire that normal folks have to wait decades for a shot at an animal then non-residents should certainly be taken out of the mix, as should anyone who has already been successful. Should be once in a lifetime for Alberta hunters. Once we are down to that, then go ahead and have a lottery.

Duk Dog · #19 02-02-2010, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by packhuntr

If this is actually being moved foreward, someone has to stop this, and fast.

Are you referring to the post by RockymtnX?

hunt_and_fish · #20 02-02-2010, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Duk Dog

Agreed, in many ways yes Alberta does have a great draw system. It is a fact however that time has created some impossible to draw tags - all the planning in the world is not going to get you a 408 or 437 sheep tag if you aren't in the top points bracket. Heck even if you are you might be an old man before lady luck shines on you. For most of the draws the system works and works well, allowing people to plan draws/hunts etc - but there are some tags that have become out of reach. IMO those draws need some fine tuning and tweaking.

I think that's the key Duk...the only ones that should be changed are the "impossible to draw tags". Everything else should stay the same, in my opinion. I think that is what the resolution was getting at and hopefully that's what SRD sticks to.

Duk Dog · #21 02-02-2010, 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hunt_and_fish

I think that's the key Duk...the only ones that should be changed are the "impossible to draw tags". Everything else should stay the same, in my opinion. I think that is what the resolution was getting at and hopefully that's what SRD sticks to.

That is exactly the intent of the resolution - tweaking or fine tuning of the next to impossible to draw tags - not blowing up the process.

packhuntr · #22 02-02-2010, 04:37 PM

Ya sorry DUK, I edited and tried to be fast, shoulda been quicker. What would be even better is not stumbling over my tongue while rushing to speak. Once again, I agree with you guys about changing things abit on these super slammer tags that no one can ever get. What I dont agree with is changing our current system over to this proposed 6 cap and random. Thats just crazy talk by someone who has no idea what they are even trying to accomplish. Someone needs to look at the AFGA proposal that has a sniff about hunting and the draw process in Alberta, and make the required changes. What is being said is a likeness of how I might sound while trying to buffalo a carpenter on how houses should be built,,,,, Im no carpenter....

hunt_and_fish · #23 02-02-2010, 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Duk Dog

That is exactly the intent of the resolution - tweaking or fine tuning of the next to impossible to draw tags - not blowing up the process.

That's what I figured when I first read it. Good resolution in my opinion. what I'm afraid of is that SRD is considering going to a cap of 6 for priority in all draws.

I think Pack nailed it above.

Rockymtnx · #24 02-02-2010, 04:58 PM

I have to agree with you guys. Capping ALL DRAWS at priority 6 isn’t the way to go about it. Capping the MATHEMATICALY IMPOSSIBLE DRAWS at priority 6, well I’m all for that.

JustinC · #25 02-02-2010, 05:03 PM

I think they should leave it the way it is.Mayby one lotto tag.I know a few that have been applying for many years for 437 sheep and they are at the top. I know people at the top of 408 and myself on 444/446. Why should we have to be second to a person that missed a year or didnt apply for it after it had bein started for years? I am not being greedy but the chances just to draw any of them is hard enough with out some one else messing with it.Compare it to an Arizona elk probably a once in a life time tag. I dont want to see any change at all.

Rockymtnx · #26 02-02-2010, 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustinC

I think they should leave it the way it is.Mayby one lotto tag.I know a few that have been applying for many years for 437 sheep and they are at the top. I know people at the top of 408 and myself on 444/446. Why should we have to be second to a person that missed a year or didnt apply for it after it had bein started for years? I am not being greedy but the chances just to draw any of them is hard enough with out some one else messing with it.Compare it to an Arizona elk probably a once in a life time tag. I dont want to see any change at all.

Ok heres a question for you. If no change of any sort implemented how is this fair to any new up and coming hunters?

#27 02-02-2010, 05:35 PM

Freaking stupid is all I can say. There are far better solutions. Why have priority at all then.....idiots!

Rob Miskosky · #28 02-02-2010, 05:41 PM

It says they are just looking at it and will review with stakeholders - I doubt its implementation will happen any time soon. Let's hope not anyway.

Vindalbakken · #29 02-02-2010, 05:58 PM

A cap at 6 for all draws is an absolutely ridiculous position to take. I think AFGA needs a new resolution to oppose this strategy. Is it too late for this year?

Tonto · #30 02-02-2010, 05:59 PM

Who are these stakeholders?
And I do agree with sheep, not a good idea at all.
What if I am a 15 for bull moose? Someone with a 6 may get drawn before me? BULL****.. is all I can think of saying. Or is this just another devil's advocate thread?