Do you have storage space for multiples of 1000 barrels of crude, and the cash to pay for delivery from a contract hub? And permits to hold all that poisonous goo on your property? Of course you could always roll your futures contracts forward, but at a substantial loss for the foreseeable future.
Once Saudi and Russia cut loose with dumping oil onto the market, todays 20 dollar price on WTI (never mind heavy oil) could be cut in half again. Storage nearly everywhere is near capacity, and the world economy isn't going anywhere but down anytime soon. No airplanes will be drinking tons of kerosene, no freight ships will be burning tons of bunker fuel oil. Vehicle sales have essentially stopped everywhere, and no mobility except for groceries is allowed in a lot of jurisdictions.
A better bet would be to sell puts on some oil price index or major integrated producers that are less than likely to go broke. If things go sideways for a couple of years while everyone waits for the recovery that never happens, you win. If they go up, you win, If they tank even more then the premium you got and the calls you immediately sell at the money on them will take some of the sting out of your loss.
|