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01-11-2015, 01:19 PM
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Gone Hunting
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Lougheed,Ab.
Posts: 12,736
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Quote:
Originally Posted by martinnordegg
It's just when and how far up.
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They will get their shortfall back in spades......
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The future ain't what it used to be - Yogi Berra
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01-11-2015, 01:30 PM
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Banned
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Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,271
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hal53
They will get their shortfall back in spades......
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They being???
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01-11-2015, 01:36 PM
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Gone Hunting
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Lougheed,Ab.
Posts: 12,736
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Quote:
Originally Posted by martinnordegg
they being???
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opec
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The future ain't what it used to be - Yogi Berra
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01-11-2015, 01:38 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Sherwood Forest
Posts: 5,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by martinnordegg
They being???
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Oil producers? Maybe?
Guys driving delivery trucks of any sort
Vendors (gas stations)
Other vendors
Investors and developers
Any business that benefits from the production and consumption of oil...
There is a long list that are waiting to squeeze the consumer and tell us some line about how there is a shortage and here is your cost to fill up.
Like it or don't drive...
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We must reject the idea that every time a law's broken, society is guilty rather than the lawbreaker. It is time to restore the precept that each individual is accountable for his actions.
Ronald Reagan
Either get busy living, or get busy dying!
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01-11-2015, 01:51 PM
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Banned
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Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,271
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hal53
opec
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Yep. No doubt they will.
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01-11-2015, 02:02 PM
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 11,349
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hal53
opec
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Will the war on terror, land on the OPEC nations shores.
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“One of the sad signs of our times is that we have demonized those who produce, subsidized those who refuse to produce, and canonized those who complain.”
Thomas Sowell
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01-11-2015, 02:30 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: edmonton
Posts: 1,428
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There is alot of oil out there and i imagine it will be a long grind down or sideways because it will probably be awhile waiting for a production cut via high cost oil production dropping off. The usa, russia, iraq and canada just hit new production records this month.
A few years of 30-60$ oil wouldnt be so bad. That was all the price was between 2002-2005. Outside the oddity of 2007-2014 oil has been pretty cheap. Now that we have fvured out how to get trillions more barrels out of the ground it might be back to the days of plenty of supply.
Engines like the 460,454, only went extinct in 1996. We might end up back in an era of abundant supply and the only restriction on burning is emmissions.
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01-11-2015, 02:48 PM
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Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 6,928
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dantonsen
There is alot of oil out there and i imagine it will be a long grind down or sideways because it will probably be awhile waiting for a production cut via high cost oil production dropping off. The usa, russia, iraq and canada just hit new production records this month.
A few years of 30-60$ oil wouldnt be so bad. That was all the price was between 2002-2005. Outside the oddity of 2007-2014 oil has been pretty cheap. Now that we have fvured out how to get trillions more barrels out of the ground it might be back to the days of plenty of supply.
Engines like the 460,454, only went extinct in 1996. We might end up back in an era of abundant supply and the only restriction on burning is emmissions.
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International trade via tanker, Diesel
Most Navy, Diesel
Air travel, High NGL content oils
Power generation, Gas, Oil, Coal fired reactors
all larger consumers then a fleet of 450+ gas jobs.
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Respond, not react. - Saskatchewan proverb
We learn from history that we do not learn from history. - Hegel
Your obligation to fight has not been relieved because the battle is fierce and difficult. Ben Shapiro
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01-11-2015, 03:44 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: edmonton
Posts: 1,428
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild&Free
International trade via tanker, Diesel
Most Navy, Diesel
Air travel, High NGL content oils
Power generation, Gas, Oil, Coal fired reactors
all larger consumers then a fleet of 450+ gas jobs.
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I guess what i was trying to say is it wasnt that long ago that we were still driving around with 460's and 454's etc under the hood. Outside the blip of 2007-2014 oil has been in comparison pretty cheap. We dont have to look back very far to find an era of abundant oil and we could easily get back there.... it is not out of the question.
We discovered a whole tonne more oil than we knew we had 10 years ago and ten years ago oil was 50$ per barrel.
2-4$ natural gas hasnt stopped the shale gas revolution either. Why would it stop shale oil?
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01-11-2015, 03:46 PM
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Gone Hunting
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Lougheed,Ab.
Posts: 12,736
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dantonsen
I guess what i was trying to say is it wasnt that long ago that we were still driving around with 460's and 454's etc under the hood. Outside the blip of 2007-2014 oil has been in comparison pretty cheap. We dont have to look back very far to find an era of abundant oil and we could easily get back there.... it is not out of the question.
We discovered a whole tonne more oil than we knew we had 10 years ago and ten years ago oil was 50$ per barrel.
2-4$ natural gas hasnt stopped the shale gas revolution either. Why would it stop shale oil?
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^^ uh...cause they are getting $12-16 a gig over seas for their natural gas?????
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The future ain't what it used to be - Yogi Berra
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01-11-2015, 04:07 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: edmonton
Posts: 1,428
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hal53
^^ uh...cause they are getting $12-16 a gig over seas for their natural gas?????
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The USA is already exporting lng? The first export terminal in the usa isnt scheduled to ship its first load until q4 2014. last time i checked gas in north america was pretty cheap and tends to stay in north america
The first deal cheniere signed for exports amounted to about 3.50$ unit
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01-11-2015, 04:35 PM
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Banned
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Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,271
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dantonsen
The USA is already exporting lng? The first export terminal in the usa isnt scheduled to ship its first load until q4 2014. last time i checked gas in north america was pretty cheap and tends to stay in north america
The first deal cheniere signed for exports amounted to about 3.50$ unit
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Hal is very correct.
European natural gas prices are through the roof. When I worked in Algeria and Tunisia that is the market the gas we were drilling for went. Big bucks!
Yes there are gas pipelines across the Med..
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01-11-2015, 05:13 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Calgary Perchdance
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Well. If service providers and suppliers can adapt quickly and reduce costs which will come from profits and wages then oil companies can afford to drill and activity will pick back up.
We have a fundamental paradigm shift in global energy prices. Any companies hoping for higher prices will go bankrupt. Those not restricting spending will go bankrupt.
Companies are way better to adjust to a low commodity price environment and many of us should not expect raises...and in some areas expect reduced hours or reduced wages to keep working.
Service and supplier prices have shot up faster than oil prices. Everyone likes to make a huge buck but the run is over.
Interesting times but the good news is the work is still there. We just need to do it cheaper.
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It is not the most intellectual of the species that survives; it is not the strongest that survives; but the species that survives is the one that is able best to adapt and adjust to the changing environment in which it finds itself. Charles Darwin
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01-11-2015, 08:08 PM
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Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 6,918
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dantonsen
I guess what i was trying to say is it wasnt that long ago that we were still driving around with 460's and 454's etc under the hood. Outside the blip of 2007-2014 oil has been in comparison pretty cheap. We dont have to look back very far to find an era of abundant oil and we could easily get back there.... it is not out of the question.
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I guess you don't remember the 70's when gas was rationed in the US, big motors went the way of dinosaurs, 4 cylinder econo boxes and 4 cylinder pickup trucks began being imported and sold like hotcakes.
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01-11-2015, 09:10 PM
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Join Date: May 2007
Location: Red Deer
Posts: 1,531
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I remember in grade 3, the teacher and the study books all said, the earth will be depleted of oil in 20 years.
Here we are 35 years later and we got more oil than the demand.
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01-11-2015, 09:29 PM
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Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Central Alberta
Posts: 1,396
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01-11-2015, 09:34 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: In your personal space.
Posts: 4,787
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chasingtail
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This song is accurate.
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01-12-2015, 06:13 AM
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Banned
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Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,271
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WTI hovering around 47 bucks now. Perhaps round 2 coming up.
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01-12-2015, 06:54 AM
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Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: edmonton
Posts: 1,428
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Quote:
Originally Posted by martinnordegg
Hal is very correct.
European natural gas prices are through the roof. When I worked in Algeria and Tunisia that is the market the gas we were drilling for went. Big bucks!
Yes there are gas pipelines across the Med..
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Ummmm i am talking about north american shale gas........ but ya whatever haha, 3$ gas didnt stop the americans from drilling shale gas. 46$ oil probably wont stop NORTH AMERICAN shale oil lol
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01-12-2015, 07:01 AM
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Lacombe, AB
Posts: 1,404
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sundancefisher
Well. If service providers and suppliers can adapt quickly and reduce costs which will come from profits and wages then oil companies can afford to drill and activity will pick back up.
We have a fundamental paradigm shift in global energy prices. Any companies hoping for higher prices will go bankrupt. Those not restricting spending will go bankrupt.
Companies are way better to adjust to a low commodity price environment and many of us should not expect raises...and in some areas expect reduced hours or reduced wages to keep working.
Service and supplier prices have shot up faster than oil prices. Everyone likes to make a huge buck but the run is over.
Interesting times but the good news is the work is still there. We just need to do it cheaper.
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May be money to save on some services, but look at the major frac companies in Canada and the US. Most turned a very small profit in 2013 and through most of 2014 because competition between the companies has resulted in low prices. Cheaper labour (salary cuts) and cheaper diesel, sand ect. May allow prices to drop a bit on fracs, but there isn't near as much room as you make it out to be.
Wells may be a bit cheaper to drill in a downturn, but there is no getting around the huge expense of a modern horizontal, multi stage frac well.
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01-12-2015, 07:01 AM
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Banned
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Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,271
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dantonsen
Ummmm i am talking about north american shale gas........ but ya whatever haha, 3$ gas didnt stop the americans from drilling shale gas. 46$ oil probably wont stop NORTH AMERICAN shale oil lol
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Depends on well costs. At current service prices and costs most wells are uneconomic to drill, including development wells. Companies won't be able to raise money to drill uneconomic wells. Very few E&P companies can live on their cash flow alone.
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01-12-2015, 07:39 AM
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Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Alberta
Posts: 257
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sillyak
May be money to save on some services, but look at the major frac companies in Canada and the US. Most turned a very small profit in 2013 and through most of 2014 because competition between the companies has resulted in low prices. Cheaper labour (salary cuts) and cheaper diesel, sand ect. May allow prices to drop a bit on fracs, but there isn't near as much room as you make it out to be.
Wells may be a bit cheaper to drill in a downturn, but there is no getting around the huge expense of a modern horizontal, multi stage frac well.
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I sign frac tickets in the field, I have a hard time believing they barely turn a profit.
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01-12-2015, 08:15 AM
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Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 8,494
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dantonsen
Ummmm i am talking about north american shale gas........ but ya whatever haha, 3$ gas didnt stop the americans from drilling shale gas. 46$ oil probably wont stop NORTH AMERICAN shale oil lol
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I am curious as to the expected production life of a shale oil well compared to a conventional oil well
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You're only as good as your last haircut
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01-12-2015, 08:17 AM
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Banned
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Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: In a tree near ALTA
Posts: 3,061
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bushrat
I guess you don't remember the 70's when gas was rationed in the US, big motors went the way of dinosaurs, 4 cylinder econo boxes and 4 cylinder pickup trucks began being imported and sold like hotcakes.
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Even more,, Highway maximum speeds were cut back to 55 MPH from 70 MPH. To conserve fuel on. National Level !
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01-12-2015, 08:27 AM
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Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 1,264
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sleddawg
I sign frac tickets in the field, I have a hard time believing they barely turn a profit.
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x1000, we use 3 different frac companies, keeps them in line. PD slashed their rates 20% to keep drilling for us. We still have 10 rigs going now but will be dropping 2-3 (gas).
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01-12-2015, 08:32 AM
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Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 304
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The January 2016 contract on the CME shows West Texas Intermediate futures are sitting around US$56 a barrel.
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/busin..._lsa=8f10-cc9f
Quote:
Originally Posted by martinnordegg
WTI hovering around 47 bucks now. Perhaps round 2 coming up.
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01-12-2015, 08:59 AM
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Banned
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Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 1,127
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Washington with the help of Saudi Arabia created disruption in the price of oil to hurt Russia's economy for the invasion of krimea , sanctions alone was not enough . That is wy opec and th Saudis said they would not stop production to raise oil prices , cause it's all part of the plan
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01-12-2015, 12:17 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 2,358
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Quote:
Originally Posted by omega50
I am curious as to the expected production life of a shale oil well compared to a conventional oil well
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That is a big point of contention with Shale Oil/Gas and reserves estimates. How long they will last is an educated guess at best. Most companies generally forecast out anywhere from 25 to 50 years. They generally start with exponential decline with steep initial decline then switch to a harmonic curve to extend out the tail section of the curve. But that doesn't mean they will actually produce that way. Lots of variables/unknowns in that equation. There was a study done on the Barnett shale, the longest producing shale thus far, that showed many wells maintained exponential decline to the end of their life and were economically dead at approx. 10 years. That polk's holes in reserves predictions and ultimately $/bbl development costs but gets little media play. Basically with small "tweaks" to the tail section of the decline curve a company can increase well reserves to the point that make the economics work today.
That said a shale wells generally decline approx 80% in the first year. That's as opposed to 10-30% in an older conventional. The long term production for shale wells is low rate and not a big game changer. The early flush production is key. Wells have to pay out early or they are in trouble. Getting that first years flush production at $50/bbl is an economics killer.
Last edited by The Elkster; 01-12-2015 at 12:40 PM.
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01-12-2015, 12:21 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Lacombe, AB
Posts: 1,404
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skytop B
x1000, we use 3 different frac companies, keeps them in line. PD slashed their rates 20% to keep drilling for us. We still have 10 rigs going now but will be dropping 2-3 (gas).
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Look at their earnings reports.
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01-12-2015, 01:16 PM
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Banned
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Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,271
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WTI under 46 bucks.
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